Who Does Not Participate in Elections in Europe and Why Is This?

Andreas Hadjar and Michael Beck

Problem: Voter turnout seems to have been on the decline during the last few decades in most
industrial democracies. A declining voter turnout is a social problem since a lack of voting may be
understood as a lack of democratic representation. Low voter turnouts decrease the legitimacy of
the elected government and therefore decrease the degree of acceptance of governmental
decisions.

Goal of the article: We analyse determinants of non-voting both on the individual and the societal
level employing a multilevel design.

Conclusion: A first main finding is the fact that the probability of non-voting is higher among people
with a low level of education and among younger cohorts. The motivational factors have similar
impacts on non-voting across all analysed societies. Lack of political efficacy, lack of political interest,
lack of political trust and dissatisfaction with politicians and the political system increase the
probability of non-voting. Regarding macro influences, countries with compulsory voting and ‘old
democracies’ turn out to have a lower rate of non-voting, although these effects vanish when
simultaneously modelled with the social psychological micro level indicators.

Important are education, cohort, gender, efficacy, interest, trust and satisfaction.

Continuing the educational expansion seems to be a meaningful measure, as well as raising interest
in politics and increasing internal political efficacy. Whereas political interest may be increased by
election campaigns and a broad media coverage, internal political efficacy may be fortified through
education in general, as well as political education and political information. To increase feelings of
trust, government politics need to be more transparent and responsive.

Hypotheses:

H1: The probability of not voting is higher among younger cohorts.

H2: The probability of not voting increases with a lower educational level.

H3: The probability of not voting increases more strongly over cohort succession among
tertiary-educated; therefore the distinction of the tertiary-educated people in their higher
voting level decreases over time.

H4: The probability of not voting is higher among women than among men.

H5: The probability of not voting decreases with a higher political efficacy.

H6: The probability of not voting decreases with a higher political interest.

H7: The probability of not voting decreases with a higher political trust.

H8: The probability of not voting decreases with a higher political satisfaction.

H9: The probability of not voting is higher in young democracies with a short democratic
experience.

H10: The probability of not voting is lower in countries with a compulsory voting law.

H11: The probability of not voting is lower in countries where elements of direct democratic
participation are frequently used.
 H12: The probability of not voting increases with an increasing disproportionality factor.

Research: On the micro level, the sociological determinants under consideration are education,
cohort and gender. Regarding psychological or motivational factors, we include in the analyses
political efficacy, political interest, political trust and satisfaction with politics. On the macro level, we
analyse characteristics of the electoral system, including opportunities for ‘direct democracy’,
maturity of democracy, disproportionality factor, and if the participation in elections is compulsory.
The data source of the analyses is the European Social Survey 2006.

Micro: Motivational and sociodemographic.

Macro: Institutional.

Cohort: Post materialism.

Individual: Cohort, education, gender, political efficacy, interest, trust and satisfaction.

Institutional: Compulsory voting, disproportionality factor, maturity of democracy and direct

democracy.