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Fuzzy Uncertainty Analysis in the Investment

Nebojša M. Ralević*, Vladimir Dj. Djaković**, Jelena S. Kiurski***, Goran B. Andjelić****
University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Technical Sciences, Department of Fundamental Sciences, Novi Sad, Serbia
** University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Technical Sciences, Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, Novi
Sad, Serbia
*** University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Technical Sciences, Department of Graphic Engineering and Design, Novi Sad,

**** Educons University, Faculty of Business in Services, Sremska Kamenica, Serbia


Abstract—The analyses of the investment processes, characteristics of the investment processes is uncertainty,
especially the possibility of monitoring and forecasting the having in mind that the final result of some investment
intense return fluctuations, demands usage of an activity cannot be recognized until this activity is fully
appropriate framework, which adequately evaluates the closed, i.e. so called „closed position“. In that sense,
dynamic nature of those processes. In the recessive business analyzing flow of investment processes, effects and results
conditions, volatility and extreme stock market movements of these activities is one of the most important tasks in the
presents a challenge while evaluation of the investment hands of both policy makers and investors. Investment
processes. Thus, the stock market prices volatility and the processes in transition economies are very specific,
possibility of stock market forecasting in an uncertain regardless characteristics of these markets and that is the
environment are in the focus of the research. Fuzzy sets reason why it is very interesting to analyze and research
allow usage of approximated values of the ambiguous data, these activities especially in this environment. In this
that is, the intraday stock market prices data. The sample article investment processes are analyzed in the view of
comprises stocks of Alfa plam a.d. Vranje (ALFA), fuzzy uncertainty analysis as a part of soft computing (SC)
Komercijalna banka a.d. Beograd (KMBN) and Metalac technology. The research is conducted with the stock
a.d. Gornji Milanovac (MTLC), that are traded at the market prices data of the Belgrade Stock Exchange, as a
regulated market of the Belgrade Stock Exchange. The main represent of the financial market conditions in the
goal of the research is to present an overview and Republic of Serbia, as a domestic economy-market. It is
performance test of the fuzzy sets as a part of soft well known fact that the financial markets of transitional
computing (SC) technology in the investment processes. The economies are extremely volatile, “shallow“, with the lack
research results indicate the necessity of the fuzzy sets
of liquidity on it. These are the main reasons why this
application in the forecasting of stock market prices, i.e. its
research is focused on the Serbian financial market, and
approximate values.
the investment processes on it. Also, this research is pretty
original having in mind that there are no similar
I. INTRODUCTION researches, to authors knowledge, of usage of the fuzzy
analysis on the Serbian financial market.
While analyzing investment processes, it is especially
important to have an overview of both global and Having in mind the volatility of the observed Serbian
domestic business environment with special attention on financial market, it is especially important to continuously
the dynamic nature of changes and consequently growing monitor the investment processes. Hence, occurrence of
uncertainty. Thus, it is possible to perceive and extreme events has a significant influence on the
comprehend the nature of the investment processes in profitability of the investments processes. Extreme values,
terms of volatility of the observed stock market, i.e. the that is, extreme returns are a critical factor regarding
changes of observed stock market prices and its unique investment strategy optimization. The possibility to
characteristics. Namely, the financial markets of transition measure risk and to adequately assess the complexion of
economies represent the typical conditions and the investment processes is of outmost importance for
circumstances of these economies in terms of their relative appropriate investment decision analyses. Consequently,
“shallowness”, insufficient liquidity and extreme volatility the development of the fuzzy based framework that will
[1]. not disregard stated extreme events that occur in the
investment processes, i.e. in the stock market business
The most important changes in the business sector operations, is a primary focus of both investors and risk
belong trade liberalization and movement of financial managers. Fuzzy systems are excellent for decision
capital, information and communication technological making under uncertainty [3].
processes, changes in international division of labour and
international trade, a huge concentration of capital Standard methods of the investment processes
connected with qualitative and quantitative changes in the appraisal tend to underperform in uncertain business
size as well as in a character of enterprises [2]. conditions that result in unexpected market movements
characterized by large market shifts, that is, intense return
Investment processes have the key role in „driving” the fluctuations. Such market movements mostly happen in
economy – locally, regionally and globally. Main
the residual time and directly affect the possibility of The rest of the paper is organized as follows. In Section
financial market forecasting. It is especially challenging II the data are described with special attention on the main
due to the characteristics of financial return series. characteristics of the standard listing at the regulated
Financial return series, in general, are leptokurtic with market of the Belgrade Stock Exchange. Section III
thick tails on both distribution sides. Accordingly, the risk presents the results and discussion, while Section IV
associated is high and estimation of the investment concludes.
processes in uncertain environment is immanent. That
implies the necessity of the fuzzy sets usage, which allows II. DATA
modeling uncertain market expectations in the investment The data used in the research comprise stocks which are
processes and also dealing with approximated values of traded at the regulated market of the Belgrade Stock
the ambiguous data. The stock market prices represent Exchange, i.e. the standard listing segment. Stocks of Alfa
such data and also are too volatile to appropriately manage plam a.d. Vranje (ALFA), Komercijalna banka a.d.
expected cash flows of the investment processes. That task Beograd (KMBN) and Metalac a.d. Gornji Milanovac
is even more complex if the existence of restricted market (MTLC) are included in the standard listing and were
information is validated. Namely, high level of insider continuously traded on the Belgrade Stock Exchange
trading is one of the main characteristics of the investment between 26.03.2012 and 29.06.2012. The data used in the
processes on the financial markets in transition research is collected from the Belgrade Stock Exchange
economies. Increasing the range of the uncertainty, i.e. official Internet site [6]. The reason why these stocks are
volatility, causes forecasting of stock market prices more included in the research lies in the fact that these stocks
difficult and consequently adequate investment risk can, in the best way, represent the conditions on the
appraisal. Effective fuzzy based framework validates all of Serbian financial market i.e. the Belgrade Stock
the stock market imperfections, underlying return Exchange. As already mentioned, these are the stocks that
distribution and uncertainty when implementing fuzzy are continuously traded on the exchange and in that sense
procedure in absence of precise information, i.e. enables these stocks can be called „liquid“. The Belgrade Stock
research in areas involving high levels and diverse forms Exchange is organized in accordance with the actual law
of uncertainty. Such problems are the norm in finance [4]. and completely is in accordance with the EU regulations
In most cases, uncertainty is caused by the inherent about exchanges. This fact is very important, because it
fuzziness of the tested parameters. An appropriate provides a solid basis for correct information about
estimation of the parameters of the investment processes conditions on the market (market prices, trade volume,
understand risk minimization, which is directly connected etc). Having all this in mind, it can be concluded that the
to the necessary capital requirements for covering possible representative sample is used in the research.
losses in that processes. In that way, it is possible to create
predictable investment horizon and to maximize returns of Trading at the Belgrade Stock Exchange is organized
the investment activities. That is desirable for both within the fluctuation zone range determined for each
institutional investors and small investors as active individual market segment separately. Absolute
participants on the financial markets. Also, further growth fluctuation zone (AZF) is determined uniquely in the
and development of the financial markets in the transition range of +/- 10%, for securities traded on the regulated
economies is enabled, which has a positive influence on market listings, that is, on the standard listing [7].
the entire business climate, i.e. on the investment Previously mentioned range is set according to the Rules
processes and consequently on the possibility of of business operations of the Belgrade Stock Exchange in
investment portfolio diversification. function of protection the investment of the investors and
also increasing confidence in the stock market stability. In
Using fuzzy techniques tends to reduce the magnitude that way investors, both domestic and foreign, can be
of errors and as a result yields better forecasts and fitting certain that their investment, i.e. the entire investment
for decision making in the prediction of stock market portfolio, will be risk protected to some extent. Hence, the
prices [5]. fluctuation zone prevents over extensive risk exposure in
Hence, the research goal is to perform a detail analysis the investment processes. This is especially significant for
of fuzzy sets application as a part of soft computing (SC) investors that conduct their business operations on the
technology in volatile business conditions with special daily basis. Also, the fluctuation zone is useful to the
attention to the possibility of the forecasting of stock investors that implement the simple “buy and hold”
market prices. Namely, both theoretical and practical investment strategy.
usage (performance analysis) of the fuzzy sets is The issuer of securities being admitted to standard
examined in function of the investment processes listing, as well during the period of listing of the security
optimization at the Belgrade Stock Exchange. The main on standard listing, must fulfill the following general
motivation of this research is to identify the initial basis conditions [8]:
for the creation of the fuzzy based framework in the
investment processes. The research results will present the 1) Minimal amount of issuer’s capital – EUR 4 mil;
basis for the fuzzy sets application and, as such, should 2) Report on audit of annual financial report prepared in
help both academics and practitioners in the subject accordance with the law governing accounting and audit –
matter. The novelties in the paper understand acquiring with expressed unqualified or qualified opinion;
further empirical results of the possibility of the fuzzy sets 3) Issuer’s webpage – created both in Serbian and
application in the investment processes (particularly in the English language.
transition economies) that are quite complex and specific, As it can be seen from the previous, general conditions
especially having in mind the unexpected (extreme) for securities admittance to standard listing of the
movement of the analyzed Serbian stock market in an Belgrade Stock Exchange are strict, which gives an
uncertain environment. additional confidence to investors about trading with that
securities. Namely, the historical and present data, 01.06.2012 6,840 1,548 1,551
including latest companies’ financial reports are 31.05.2012 6,849 1,610 1,551
continuously available. Thus, the investment processes 30.05.2012 6,850 1,600 1,630
conducted at the standard listing are performed with 29.05.2012 6,850 1,605 1,630
28.05.2012 6,850 1,605 1,630
increased transparency and reduced risk.
25.05.2012 6,850 1,650 1,630
In addition, the following special conditions must be 24.05.2012 6,850 1,650 1,630
met [8]: 23.05.2012 6,850 1,729 1,630
1) That in the free float there is at least 25% of total 22.05.2012 6,976 1,729 1,630
number of issued shares, not including the following 21.05.2012 6,851 1,735 1,617
18.05.2012 6,850 1,735 1,610
17.05.2012 6,850 1,710 1,610
- of persons owning individually more than 5% of 16.05.2012 6,850 1,710 1,696
shares of the total number of shares issued by the issuer, 15.05.2012 6,850 1,710 1,695
excluding shares owned by investment and pension funds, 14.05.2012 6,850 1,785 1,695
as well as other shares in custody accounts, fund 11.05.2012 6,850 1,785 1,671
management companies, insurance companies, investment 10.05.2012 6,850 1,785 1,695
companies and other investment companies with short- 09.05.2012 6,850 1,703 1,680
term investment strategies; 08.05.2012 6,850 1,773 1,670
07.05.2012 6,900 1,773 1,670
- owned by the international and foreign organizations 04.05.2012 6,999 1,756 1,670
and institutions for development; 03.05.2012 7,000 1,673 1,670
- owned by the Republic of Serbia including shares 30.04.2012 7,000 1,610 1,670
owned by bodies, organizations and institutions 27.04.2012 7,000 1,645 1,665
established by special laws by the Republic of Serbia 26.04.2012 7,000 1,645 1,665
(agencies, funds, etc.); 25.04.2012 7,000 1,645 1,634
24.04.2012 7,100 1,645 1,630
2) That the dividends per preference shares have been 23.04.2012 7,100 1,650 1,630
paid, if issued – in the way prescribed by the decision on 20.04.2012 7,100 1,645 1,630
their issue. 19.04.2012 7,100 1,690 1,630
Having in mind all strict conditions that must be met, 18.04.2012 7,100 1,690 1,650
only three companies that issued securities are listed on 17.04.2012 7,100 1,650 1,650
12.04.2012 7,100 1,750 1,650
the Belgrade Stock Exchange within the standard listing.
11.04.2012 7,100 1,750 1,650
Alfa plam a.d. Vranje is a metal industry company with 10.04.2012 7,100 1,750 1,650
dominant export orientation, especially to the following 09.04.2012 7,150 1,750 1,650
countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Slovenia, 06.04.2012 7,150 1,793 1,650
Macedonia, Bulgaria, Albania, Italy, Russia and Hungary. 05.04.2012 7,150 1,800 1,656
Komercijalna banka a.d. Beograd is a bank with active 04.04.2012 7,150 1,800 1,656
domestic and international business operations and is one 03.04.2012 7,150 1,800 1,680
of the oldest members of the Belgrade Stock Exchange. 02.04.2012 7,194 1,800 1,680
Metalac a.d. Gornji Milanovac is a production and trading 30.03.2012 7,200 1,800 1,690
company organized as a holding with large market share 29.03.2012 7,200 1,796 1,676
in the Republic of Serbia. 28.03.2012 7,200 1,785 1,630
27.03.2012 7,200 1,682 1,630
Therefore, standard listing stock data of Alfa plam a.d. 26.03.2012 7,200 1,682 1,650
Vranje (ALFA), Komercijalna banka a.d. Beograd Source: [6]
(KMBN) and Metalac a.d. Gornji Milanovac (MTLC)
provide a sound basis for the research.
The standard listing data of ALFA, KMBN and MTLC THE STANDARD LISTING DATA – PERIOD: 25.06.-29.06.2012
are presented in Table I and Table II.
29.06.2012 6,500 1,421 1,601
TABLE I. 28.06.2012 6,500 1,426 1,650
THE STANDARD LISTING DATA – PERIOD: 26.03.-22.06.2012 27.06.2012 6,500 1,425 1,601
Date ALFA KMBN MTLC 26.06.2012 6,500 1,500 1,601
22.06.2012 6,500 1,500 1,601 25.06.2012 6,500 1,500 1,601
21.06.2012 6,500 1,500 1,610 Source: [6]
20.06.2012 6,500 1,532 1,601
19.06.2012 6,500 1,532 1,601 III. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
18.06.2012 6,500 1,559 1,601
15.06.2012 6,500 1,559 1,600 The application of the fuzzy sets is especially
14.06.2012 6,500 1,559 1,550 challenging in the field of prediction in terms of the future
13.06.2012 6,500 1,648 1,530 stock market price movement, i.e. volatility. The dilemma
12.06.2012 6,779 1,648 1,532 is, whether it is possible to assess the future stock market
11.06.2012 6,787 1,648 1,532 price movement in some degree, even when processing
08.06.2012 6,840 1,648 1,532 imprecise market data?
07.06.2012 6,840 1,648 1,532
Suppose that in different time x i the data in the paper
06.06.2012 6,840 1,648 1,551
05.06.2012 6,840 1,648 1,553 are presented by symmetric trapezoidal fuzzy numbers
04.06.2012 6,840 1,548 1,550 Pi = ( l i , m i , n i , ri ) .
It is necessary to establish a following connection: C13={1/1690, 0.992/1676, 0.964/1630, 0.976/1650}
P = A + x B , A = ( a l , a m , a n , a r ) , B = ( bl , b m , b n , b r ) , Source: Author’s calculations
which determines a fuzzy value for P = ( l , m , n , r ) , at Due to the simplification and adequate consideration,
the obtained fuzzy sets are transferred into symmetric
time x . Suppose that a l = 0 .9 a m , a r = 1 .1a n ,
trapezoidal fuzzy numbers A = ( a l , a m , a n , a r ) , where
bl = 0 .9 bm , br = 1 .1bn , li = 0 .9 m i and ri = 1 .1ni .
al = 0 .9 a m and a r = 1 .1a n , whose core
Using the classical normal equations, the following
J ( A ) = [a m , a n ] , that is:
connections are obtained:
am =
∑m i
, b =
∑xm i i
m 2
n i
(1) J(A1)=[6500,6500] J(A2)=[6779,6787]

an =
∑ ni , b =
∑xn . i i
n 2
n i J(A7)=[6850,6900] J(A8)=[6999,7000]
J(A9)=[7050,7100] J(A10)=[7100,7100]
J(A11)=[7100,7150] J(A12)=[7150,7194]
Corresponding fuzzy sets are joined to the stock market J(A13)=[7200,7200]
prices (The standard listing, see Table I), from one week Source: Author’s calculations
during the entire sample period (13 weeks), that is:
J(B1)=[1559,1559] J(B2)=[1648,1648]
A1={1/6500} A2={0.958/6500, 0.999/6779, J(B3)=[1648,1648] J(B4)=[1600,1600]
1/6787} J(B5)=[1729,1735] J(B6)=[1785,1785]
A3={1/6840} A4={0.999/6840, 1/6849, 1/6850} J(B7)=[1773,1785] J(B8)=[1756,1756]
A5={1/6976, 0.982/6851, A6={1/6850} J(B9)=[1645,1650] J(B10)=[1690,1690]
0.982/6850} J(B11)=[1750,1750] J(B12)=[1793,1800]
A7={0.993/6850, 1/6900} A8={1/6999, 1/7000} J(B13)=[1785,1800]
A9={0.986/7000, 1/7100} A10={1/7100}
Source: Author’s calculations
A11={0.993/7100, 1/7150} A12={0.994/7150, 1/7194}
Source: Author’s calculations TABLE VIII.
BANKA A.D. BEOGRAD (KMBN) J(C3)=[1550,1553] J(C4)=[1630,1630]
J(C5)={1617,1630] J(C6)=[1695,1696]
B1={0.962/1500, 0.983/1532, B2={0.946/1559, 1/1648} J(C7)=[1680,1695] J(C8)=[1670,1670]
1/1559} J(C9)=[1665,1665] J(C10)=[1650,1650]
B3={1/1648, 0.939/1548} B4={0.961/1548, 1/1610, J(C11)=[1650,1650] J(C12)=[1680,1680]
0.994/1600, 0.997/1605}
B5={0.951/1650, 0.996/1729, B6={0.972/1735, 0.958/1710,
1/1735} 1/1785} Source: Author’s calculations
B7={1/1785, 0.954/1703, B8={1/1756, 0.953/1673, Using (1), the following is obtained:
P = A + xB = [am , an ] + x[bm , bn ]
0.993/1773} 0.917/1610}
B9={0.997/1645, 1/1650} B10={0.973/1645, 1/1690, (2)
For x=7, the predicted ALFA, KMBN and MTLC stock
B11={1/1750} B12={0.996/1793, 1/1800}
B13={1/1800, 0.998/1796, 0.992/1785, 0.934/1682}
market price for the period 25.06.-29.06.2012 is as
Source: Author’s calculations
J ( P ALFA ) = [6941 + 7 * 45,6952 + 7 * 48] = [7256 ,7288 ]
TABLE V. J ( P KMBN ) = [1705 + 7 *14,1708 + 7 *15] = [1803,1813]
GORNJI MILANOVAC (MTLC) J ( P MTLC ) = [1643 + 7 * 8,1648 + 7 * 8] = [1699,11704] .
C1={0.994/1601, 1/1610 } C2={1/1600, 0.967/1550,
0.956/1530, 0.958/1532} IV. CONCLUSION
C3={0.986/1532, C4={0.952/1551, 1/1630}
0.999/1551, 1/1553, The research results indicate that calculated
0.998/1550} approximated values for prediction of the stock market
C5={1/1630, 0.992/1617} C6={0.949/1610, 1/1696, 1/1695} prices movement of ALFA, KMBN and MTLC have
C7={0.986/1671, 1/1695, C8={1/1670} greater values than actual for the period 25.06.-
0.991/1680, 0.985/1670} 29.06.2012. This result can be interpreted due to existing
C9={1/1665, 0.981/1634, C10={0.988/1630, 1/1650} stock market conditions, where there is a low trading
activity for several consecutive days (this situation
C11={1/1650} C12={0.982/1650, 0.986/1656,
presents the limitation of the research). In that way, there
are no significant changes in the stock market prices of
each tested stock. Thus, the application of the fuzzy sets ACKNOWLEDGMENT
implies consideration of additional factors in the The authors acknowledge the financial support of the
calculation, e.g. liquidity and trading volume of the tested Ministry of Education, Science and Technological
stocks. Also, the calculation period should be modified to Development of the Republic of Serbia, within the
correspond to a greater extent to the recessive business Projects No. TR 34014 and No. ON 174009.
The results of the research are very significant both for REFERENCES
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