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1.0 Introduction
An efficient capital market is sought highly to arrive at two desired goals- to build investors’
confidence, to increase resource mobilization and improve the efficiency in allocating them
at appropriate areas, both are important to stimulate the development of an economy
(Adelegan, 2009). Economies without well-functioning stock markets may suffer from three
types of imperfections: first, opportunities for risk diversification are limited for investors
and entrepreneurs, second, firms are unable to optimally structure their financing packages
and third, countries without well-functioning markets lack information about the prospects of
firms whose shares are traded, thereby restricting the promotion of investment and its’
efficiency (Demirguc-Kunt et al, 1996). Countries with better developed financial systems,
i.e. financial markets and institutions that more effectively channel society’s savings to its
most productive use, experience faster economic growth (Thorsten Beck and Rahman, 2006).
Bangladesh also feels the need for an efficient and transparent capital market to canalize
money from the surplus units of the society who are not supposed to invest their fund but buy
securities from the capital markets to potential investors who gather in the capital markets to
finance their projects, so that it accelerates the growth for overall benefit of the economy.
A number of evolutionary and regulatory measures have been taken by the Government of
Bangladesh to boost the capital market of the country to develop a strong platform for
entrepreneurs for raising capital. The Government has also sought assistance from various
international agencies to suggest necessary capital market reforms for Bangladesh. The main
international agencies that have been working in the capital market reforms projects in
Bangladesh today are: Asian Development Bank (ADB), the International Monetary Fund
(IMF), The World Bank, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP). Despite the presence of various
domestic and international regulatory agencies, the capital market of Bangladesh is yet to
make a steady growth. The investors are still very scared to enter into the market as it has not
been recognized a complete safeguard to the investors to generate profit due to uneven
fluctuations in security prices. Very often the investors lose their confidence in the market
and in the regulatory bodies. This is partly because of inadequate regulations, lack of
supervision and administrative slackness towards the application of existing rules and
somewhat because of superficial speculation owing to which market moves dramatically. But
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with all of its superfluous issues, the paper aims to examine the degree of efficiency at which
our capital market is operating.
The capital market in which security prices adjust rapidly to the arrival of all relevant new
information and, therefore, the current prices of security reflect all current and upcoming
information about the security due to which making economic profit is almost impossible is
called efficient capital market. In an efficient capital market it is somehow difficult to beat
the market even if one is a professional, well-informed, experienced investor. Market
efficiency does not require that the market price be equal to true value at every point in time.
All it requires is that errors in the market price be unbiased, i.e., that prices can be greater
than or less than true value, as long as these deviations are random. Randomness implies that
there is an equal chance that stocks are under or over valued at any point in time. Moreover,
market efficiency is a matter of degree, not of kind. Though the financial analysts talk about
three different types or forms of market efficiency but the forms basically stands to describe
how fast relevant information are reflected in security prices to estimate its fundamental
values. The forms are i) weak form efficiency in which current price reflects the information
contained in all past prices and technical analysis is of no use, ii) semi-strong form efficiency
asserts that current price reflects all publicly available information and fundamental analysis
is out of use, finally iii) Strong Form Efficiency for which current price reflects all
information, public as well as private, and insiders’ information become useless.
A market to be efficient, there should be profit maximizing investors who recognize the
'potential for excess return', can replicate the beat the market scheme that earns the excess
return, and have the resources to trade on the stock until the inefficiency disappears. In
relation to our capital market, though we have a large number of profit seeking investors to
fulfill all these requirements for an efficient market, but yet it is seemed to be a weak form
efficient market because of the slackness of convenient information. The annual reports of
some of the listed companies are mistrusted and often supposed to be as speculative by the
market. The market moved radically over a period of time and turned into a speculative
market and then a gamble market transforming the investors into speculators. (Raihan and
Anwar Ullah, 2007). Besides, companies’ information is released and circulated before their
annual reports are published and officially available. In fact, semi strong form and strong
form efficiency is very rare in less developed countries because of the facts brought up
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above. The study therefore aims to test the form of efficiency of our capital market with
reference to Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE).
the primary sources of external funds for business entrepreneurs are loans from commercial
banks, capital market also contributes a lot to support economic growth. The amount of
industrial term loans disbursed by banks and financial institutions stood at Taka 199.7
billion, many-fold higher than the amount of Taka 5.9 billion raised by new capital issues,
Taka 0.9 billion raised through private placements and Taka 5.0 billion through public
offerings in FY09 (table-B and table-C).
Table A: Industrial term loans of banks and financial institutions (billion Taka)
Particulars FY ’05 FY ’06 FY ’07 FY ’08 FY ’09
Disbursement 87.0 96.5 123.9 201.5 199.7
Recovery 85.4 67.6 90.7 136.2 163.0
Outstanding 226.3 273.8 339.2 400.9 478.1
Source: Bangladesh Bank Annual Report
Table B: Equity through private placement and public offering (billion Taka)
Particulars FY ’05 FY ’06 FY ’07 FY ’08 FY ’09
Equity through private placement & 1.2 1.7 3.14 5.2 5.9
IPOs (billion Taka)
private placement (billion Taka) 0.1 0.2 0.04 1.5 0.9
Public Offering (billion Taka) 1.1 1.5 3.1 3.7 5.0
Source: Bangladesh Bank Annual Report
It denotes that banks and financial institutions are still the major sources of investment
financing in Bangladesh as our capital market is operating far below than its potential. The
rationale for testing weak form efficiency of emerging capital market like CSE is evident.
But in the absence of such sort of attribute, how close the market is to other two forms and if
not how far the market deviates from ideal one can be a matter of interest.
different approaches of testing for market whether informational efficiency exists or not, and
the approach used greatly depends on the investment scheme being tested. Two major
approaches are-
Event Study: The study is employed to test an investment scheme that is based upon the
trading on information events. The information events can be market-wide, such as macro-
economic announcements, or firm-specific, such as stock splits, earnings announcements or
acquisition announcements, etc. For having the evidence of excess returns, event study
scrutinizes the returns around the event.
Portfolio Study: Portfolio Study is applied to test an investment scheme that is based upon
the trading on a observable characteristic of a firm like price earnings ratios, price book value
ratios or dividend yields, etc. In this study, portfolios of stocks with these characteristics are
created and tracked over time to see if, in fact, they make excess returns.
The study is designed to examine market reactions to excess returns around specific
information events ‘earnings announcements’, therefore, an event study is the reasonable
methodology for the study which is conducted following the proposed way, steps of which
are discussed in the following section.
Publications, library and information division of Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE), Inquiry
Committee reports and market-generated information about daily price of stocks and market
index available in daily newspapers, websites of SEC.
The event to be studied is clearly identified, and the date on which the event was announced
is to be pinpointed. In conducting the research a large sample of stocks have been collected
in which twenty (20) such stocks are found that have in common the incidence of a particular
event ‘announcement of earnings per share’. The date on which the event announced is called
announcement date which has been recorded for each stock. Name of the companies whose
stocks we are considering and the dates on which the announcement of event comes in CSE
for different stocks have been recorded in appendix-2. Close prices around the event dates
are collected to calculate the returns of the stocks. Moreover, the prices of the underlying
stock (j) were collected for each of the ten days prior to the option listing announcement date,
the day of the earnings announcement, and each of the ten days after. Thus, the paper will use
the prices of 21 trading days for each stock. Returns for each of the trading days for each
stock (Rjt) are computed. Returns on the market index (Rmt) are computed for each of the 21
trading days. It is worth noting that ‘Chittagong Stock Exchange All Share Price Index
(CASPI)’ embodies the market index in computing the market return rate.
After measuring returns, by period, around the announcement date, next order of business is
to adjust them to market performance and risk to arrive at excess returns for each stock in the
sample.
In general, the capital asset pricing model is used to control for risk, in which, the beta (β)
factor, as a measure of the response of the security’s returns to the change in the rates of
return to the market portfolio, is estimated using the returns from a time period outside the
event window using 100 trading days from before the event and 100 trading days after the
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event. After measuring beta, the excess returns can be computed for each of the 21 trading
days for each stock. When the excess returns are available, averaging them average excess
returns are found. Dividing the average excess returns by the respective standard error, t-
statistics are known, which are used as the best approximate of market efficiency under event
study. Formulae employed in conducting the study are furnished in appendix-2.
in the average excess return on the day of the announcement reflecting the response of those
stocks for which information did not leak, and there should be no further change in the
average excess return after the announcement. If the market is strong form efficient and if the
information related to the event that is going to be studied leaks out prior to the
announcement, we should see a different pattern. In this case the average excess return
should exhibit the pattern shown in figure-2.
methodical response, the remaining weak form market efficiency could be noteworthy for
CSE.
‘If the number of degrees of freedom is 20 or more and the level of significance is set at 5%
or 0.05, then the null hypothesis should be rejected if computed t-value exceeds 2 in absolute
form.’
The study considers the price of twenty stocks of twenty-one trading days. Therefore, for
each trading day there are twenty-one excess returns for twenty stocks and averaging them
we have an average excess return. A standard error is also found.
Here, the number of degrees of freedom following the formula ‘number of observation -1’ is
20. Now, if we set the significance level at 5%, we can make use of the ‘2-t rule of thumb’.
If we pay our attention to the t-ratios given in the table-2 (in annexure), employing the ‘2-t
rule of thumb’ we can conclude that –
‘Since none of the t-ratios exceeds the value 2(two) in absolute form, therefore the null
hypothesis, H0: The market is not efficient, should not be rejected, a statistically insignificant
decision is made, meaning that there is no room for addressing CSE as an efficient market.’
But such a conclusion limits the study in the sense that it ignores all other forms of efficiency
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except the strong one which ultimately signifies a semi-strong or weak form efficient market
the CSE can be addressed as.
The foremost important reason is perhaps the presence of a good number of non-actively
traded shares is there in our stock market. The low level of market efficiency may result from
the persistent of such large number of non-actively traded shares. Some of these shares do
not produce any return for a long period. As a result, on the arrival of new information about
these shares investors fall in the dispute that it may bring nothing to their urns. And sensible
investors along with others do not feel any interest to engage their funds in these securities
due to which prices of them do not response to new information, significant level of market
efficiency can’t be gained.
Informational asymmetry and price manipulation may be another intuitive reason for the
lower degree of market efficiency. Our stock markets often suffer from informational
inefficiency. Due to the misleading and deceptive information provided by speculators,
investors face difficulty in choosing the optimal investment, as information on corporate
performance is slow or less available. The resulting uncertainty may induce investors either
to withdraw their fund from the market until this uncertainty is resolved or discourage them
to invest funds for long term. Moreover, if investors are not rewarded for taking on higher
risk by investing in the stock market, or if excess volatility weakens investor’s confidence,
they will not invest their savings in the stock market. As a result, there is a very little scope
inefficiency to disappear.
CSE is a small market consisting small investors and another source of low level of market
efficiency is the execution cost of an investment. Everyone agrees to the point that investors
seek profit from their investment. But with little investment if the execution cost of an
investment covers the expected profit, it will push the investors to loss and they will no
longer be in the market. Market will lose a large number of investors who operate in the
market with an aim of profit maximization.
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Floatation of so many IPOs within a short span of time is another factor. Shareholders
quickly dispose their shareholdings to invest in new stocks hoping to reap windfall gains.
Moreover, investors often become frustrated by the poor performance of the issues listed in
the bourses. Dividends paid by listed companies are very small which raise the frustration of
the investors.
Delays in settlement are another common occurrence in stock market. Financing procedures
and delivery of securities some time take unusual long time for which money is blocked.
Some companies announce their dividend without holding annual general meeting (AGM)
that makes the shareholders confused about the financial status of the companies. Moreover,
being the directors of listed companies of CSE, some members serve their own interest using
internal information of share market. All these together produce timidity in investors’ and
results an inefficient market.
Revising the tax treatment, asking the multinational companies making huge monopoly
profits to sell shares in the stock market, lowering the interest rates on saving instruments, re-
imposing the restrictions on the limit of investment, taking actions against the companies do
not call AGM regularly and do not pay dividends proportionate with their profits, ensuring
adequate supply of stocks through active participation of the government in the capital
market particularly to dampen the excess demand, taking necessary steps to increase the
liquidity of stock market- investors’ confidence can be retrieved and market efficiency will
ultimately encompass a significant level.
Moreover, careful monitoring of volatility by the concerned authority on a regular basis and
effective intervention at the right time if necessary especially during unpredictable
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movements of individual stock prices will sustain the efficiency level earned through the
actions mentioned above.
The authority should identify the factors that cause unpredictable price movements and
disseminate the information to interested stakeholders. In addition, the authority may take
measures to make timely disclosure and dissemination of all relevant information relating to
real worth of the companies experiencing excess fluctuations in stock prices to the
shareholders and investors which will revolve the market efficiency of CSE.
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Appendix
Appendix 1: List of the Securities with Their Respective Announcement Dates
Beta (β) Rjt = α + βjRmt • Rjt = Returns on stock j for day t (t = -n,...,0, ...+n)
• Rmt = Market returns for day t (t = -n, ...,0, .... +n)
• βj = Beta of the stock ‘J’
Excess Return ERjt = Rjt – βj Rmt t = -10,-9,…0…,+9,+10
Average Excess N • t = -10,-9,….,0,….,+9,+10.
Return ER jt • N = Number of events in the event study
j =1 • For 21 trading days 21 average excess returns is
ARt = ,
N found
Standard Error 23 • t = -10,-9,….,0,….,9,10
(ER jt − ER t ) • For 21 trading days 21 standard error is found
j =1
SER=
N −1
t-statistic ARt The best approximate of market efficiency under
S
t-statistic = ERt event study is t-statistic
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