PDM Precedence Diagram Method - forward, backward pass and critical path

CPM - Critical Path Method

CPM examples -
Total Float – Total float for critical path is always zero

Free float -
Total float and free float

Resource Histogram -
Project Crashing -
Project overhead is per day extra cost for project management etc. Run 5 for activity C is not saving
any money nor a day so its pointless to crash C.

Project S curve for cumulative cost

S Curve for % complete (man hours or cost)

Compare baseline S- curves for Early Start and Late Start

ACWP = Actual Cost of Work Performed
BCWP = Budgeted Cost of Work Performed
BCWS = Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled

Report date is the end of day 3. DM says that 40% of work done and cost occurred is $1000

Cost Performance Index CPI = BCWP/ACWP.

If CPI < 1 then project is over budget
Cost Variance CV = BCWP – ACWP.
If CV < 0 then project is over budget

Schedule Performance Index SPI = BCWP / BCWS

If SPI < 0 then project is behind the schedule
Schedule Variance = BCWP – BCWS
If SV < 0 then project is behind the schedule

Earned
Value
Analysis
Exampl
e
Interpret the Earned Value graph
Make predictions using earned Value analysis

Planned budget at completion = $3700 (Total of all activities planned)

Planned Duration = 10 days (from Gant chart or PDM diagram)
How to calculate expected duration, variance and standard deviation of an activity?

Draw an ADM (Arrow Diagram Method) network diagram for PERT problems

This is CPM diagram, Activity is on arrow, each arrow points to lower to higher number, each node

must have different I-J number e.g. for B its 2-3

This is ADM diagram, activities on node, pert times on arrows.

Calculate Forward and backward pass of an ADM network diagram for PERT problems

First Write the mean at down and variance, deviation above the arrow.

Forward pass
Backward pass

How to calculate expected duration, variance and standard deviation for entire project?
Expected duration is sum of all durations of activities which are on critical path (highlighted in red)
Variance = sum of all activity's variance
Standard Deviation = square root of project variance = 2.92 days that means project will complete
2.92 days early or late.
SD is not sum of all activity's deviation due to some central limit theorem. Always consider sq root of
project variance.

What is probability that project will finish early or late (PERT)?

what is probability that project will finish in less than 38 days?
Find the probability of Z = -1.03 is Z score table which is 0.1515 (yellow)
More than 43 days?

What is the probability that an activity will finish early, late, or during some time interval?

What is the
probability
that an
activity G
finishes in
less than 3
days?
How to estimate project completion date with at least 95% confidence level?
This is your ADM and you have been asked for 95% confidence level.
So we know Z score is 95%. P(Z) = 0.95 i.e. 95%
Look into Z score table. The 0.95 is between 0.9495 and 0.9505 at 1.6 and 0.045 so Z = 1.645

We
need
to find
value
of X

So there is
95% of
confidence
that this
project will
complete
in 45.803
days

What is a probability that a node will have a certain float/slack in PERT problems?