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Strategies For Antifragility
Strategies For Antifragility
Taleb brings his skepticism of theory to the practice of hormesis. For example, he
embraces practices like intermittent fasting or lifting heavy weights, but resists
connecting these to any mechanistic explanations, such as insulin-lowering or micro-
trauma to muscles.
I am writing about health, but I do not want to rely on biology beyond the minimum
required…I just want to understand as little as possible to be able to look at regularities
of experience. (Antifragile, p. 351)
I disagree with Taleb on this point. I think that a deeper, mechanistic understanding of
hormesis is worthwhile and productive, because mechanistic hypotheses can tested and
point us to new applications. Equally, disproving flawed hypotheses can save us from
useless or harmful practices. Nonetheless, Taleb’s phenomenological approach still
provides us with some practical strategies for discovering new possible ways to become
stronger and more resilient — in health, in wealth, and in outlook.
I’ll try to distill here three of the strategies I found most interesting. Taleb has used his
own, idiosyncratic, nomenclature to brand these strategies:
1. The Barbell Strategy. One of the hallmarks of fragility is that the downside is
much worse than the upside. Taleb realized this as an options trader and
developed a bimodal investment strategy, using the image of a barbell as a
metaphor for pursuing the extremes instead of the average. Rather than
“diversify” into areas of average risk, he advises putting the majority of assets
into ultra-safe investments like cash, and a small amount–say 10%–into some
investments that are riskier but have a disproportionately huge upside. This is
an “asymmetric” or lopsided strategy which protects on the downside and has
the possibility of great gain on the upside. The barbell strategy is not limited to
investment, but can apply to psychology and health.Seneca, the Roman Stoic,
realized that wealth can be transient–fragile. To an affluent person, further gains
have slight marginal utility, while the risk of losing everything can be
devastating. As with other Stoics, Seneca regularly practiced negative
visualization (imagining the worst outcome) and voluntary simplicity – traveling
lightly and sleeping on the ground — to reduce his fear of the downside and
build his appreciation for the upside. Another way that Taleb suggests to apply
this strategy is to choose a “safe “career, and supplement this with a wild,
creative or fun avocation like writing, skydiving or playing in a rock band.
.
Precisely. We are overly impressed with relatively short term studies that show
some immediately visible benefit, and we are willing to gamble on this small
upside for unknown longer term effects. The downside of the novel intervention
may not be known for years. Thalidomide and diethylstilbestrol were drugs
developed to provide modest benefits to pregnant mothers, but these were
dwarfed by the horrible birth defects that eventually surfaced. More recently,
we’ve learned that trans fats and high fructose corn syrup — originally thought
to be harmless “innovations” to reduce spoilage or save money — contribute to
obesity and metabolic syndrome. But it took decades for this to become clear.
antibiotics
hormone replacement therapy
anti-inflammatory medication
cortisone shots
lobotomies (doesn’t seem so controversial today!)
iron supplementation
sunscreen
disinfectants and excessive hygiene
toothpaste
soy milk
cow’s milk — for people of Mediterranean or Asian descent
fruits — except for “ancient” fruits that are typically more bitter or sour than
their modern versions
any drink other than water, wine or coffee (I’m not sure why he excludes herbal
teas)
antidepressants
child psychiatry
air conditioning
I must say that I agree with Taleb on many or most of these — with the caveat that
occasional or emergency use is acceptable. I would add a few more of my own
examples of things we are generally better off doing without — each of which I’ve
written about on my blog:
eyeglasses
cushioned running shoes
antioxidants
vitamin D supplements
The new insight that Taleb provides is to go beyond mechanistic explanations (e.g.
regarding the specifics of adaptation and biological plasticity) to consider the structure
of the tradeoff made in considering any intervention. We should replace our current
bias for short term interventions with the longer term perspective of “asymmetric
optionality” in thinking about risks and benefits in health.
Via Negativa: Adding to Your Life By Subtracting
It’s a new year and people all over the world are making resolutions on how they’re
going to improve themselves. Usually these goals consist of doing something new or
adding a habit to their lives: get back into exercising, start journaling, launch a side
hustle, adopt the Paleo diet, earn more money, etc.
But after a few weeks of motivated effort, most folks start to lose steam. They stop
going to the gym, never sign up for that woodworking class, and go back to eating Pop
Tarts and Doritos. And then they feel like crap because they haven’t made any progress
on improving themselves.
There’s nothing wrong with making these types of positive goals, but they’re not the
only way to improve your life. Just as effective as adding something to our lives, if not
more so, is subtracting the things that might be holding us back.
In truth, oftentimes the path to becoming a better man is found in following the via
negativa — the negative way.
Via negativa is a Latin phrase used in Christian theology to explain a way of describing
God by focusing on what he is not, rather than what he is; understanding Deity’s
positive qualities is a task deemed impossible for the finite minds of humans.
Via negativa can also be used to describe a similarly “negative” way of improving one’s
life; instead of concentrating on what you do, the focus turns to what you don’t do. This
path has two main thrusts: stripping bad habits and situations out of your life, and
avoiding bad habits/situations in the first place.
In his book Antifragile, Nassim Taleb argues that the best way for a person or
organization to become antifragile (something that gains from setbacks and chaos rather
than just survives) is to first decrease their downside. Downside consists of those things,
people, actions, habits, or systems that make you vulnerable to volatility and risk. For
example, debt isn’t much of a problem when you have enough money coming in to
make your payments, but as soon as you lose your job, that debt becomes a really big
problem, really fast.
But downside can create a handicap even when volatility doesn’t exist. Take the debt
example again. Money you shunt over to your monthly payment is money that could
have been used for more productive purposes like starting a business or taking a class to
learn a new skill. Downside limits your options in life.
By focusing your efforts on eliminating that debt, you eliminate the risk of falling
behind on payments and you free up money to be spent on increasing your upside in
life.
Smoking is a huge downside to your health; removing the smoking habit from your life
provides more benefit than adding more exercise to your daily routine and protein to
your diet.
Toxic relationships are a downside to your emotional and psychological well-being. Just
ask someone who has been in an abusive relationship how much every area of their life
improved once they got rid of that interpersonal albatross.
Not only can eliminating bad habits be a highly effective way to improve your life, it’s
also often a lot easier than creating a new, positive habit. Positive habits take a lot of
motivation and willpower to cultivate. But not doing something is much simpler. For
example, if you’re significantly overweight, switching to a low carb diet is going to
shed those lbs for sure, but it ain’t easy to stick with. Eliminating soda, on the other
hand, is comparatively a cinch. Dropping the sugar water habit isn’t going to turn you
into a trim athlete, but it’ll get you on your way; once you’re closer to your goal, and
feeling some momentum, you can start making more significant, positive changes to
your diet.
“I have used all my life a wonderfully simple heuristic: charlatans are recognizable in
that they will give you positive advice, and only positive advice, exploiting our
gullibility and sucker-proneness for recipes that hit you in a flash as just obvious, then
evaporate later as you forget them.” -Nassim Taleb
Taleb argues that removing downside is just one part of via negativa. The other part is
to simply avoid downside in the first place.
Because we have a bias towards positive action, it’s hard for us to focus on how
avoiding downside is a plus; we recognize when things go right, but fail to notice when
something bad didn’t happen. This bias manifests itself in the way businesses reward
success. Corporations will handsomely reward CEOs who substantially increase
shareholder value during a boom time, but won’t provide the same sort of bonuses to
the CEO who takes prudent measures that prevent the company from losing its
metaphorical shirt during a bust.
However, in the long run, not going bust is the best path towards success – you can’t
make any money if you’re bankrupt! As Taleb notes:
“In practice it is the negative that’s used by the pros, those selected by evolution: chess
grandmasters usually win by not losing; people become rich by not going bust
(particularly when others do); religions are mostly about interdicts; the learning of life is
about what to avoid. You reduce most of your personal risks of accident thanks to a
small number of measures.”
I know a few very smart and talented individuals whose lives are in utter shambles
despite their gifts. And it’s because they keep making stupid and avoidable mistakes.
They consistently add wholly unnecessary downside to their lives.
If they had done nothing really positive, but had simply avoided the DUIs, the drug
arrests, the out-of-wedlock births, the affairs, and the consumer debt, their lives would
have been vastly superior to the ones they have now.
Let that sink in: doing nothing would have given these people a better life than they
have now.
I sometimes hear people carp that the Ten Commandments or other religious edicts
focus too much on restricting behavior, and don’t focus enough on positive actions. But
perhaps there’s wisdom in focusing on the “thou shall nots.” If you can go through life
not murdering people, not lying, not sleeping with your neighbor’s wife, and not filled
with envy, you’re going to have a pretty good life.
Following via negativa may seem like a defensive and risk-averse way to live. But by
focusing on what you don’t do, you actually put yourself in a position to be more
aggressive with life. The man who has never been arrested, doesn’t have debt, and
doesn’t have the drama that comes with bad relationships has more opportunities
presented to him and more money, energy, and willpower to capitalize on those
opportunities when they appear; the man who has gone though life making stupid
mistakes, doesn’t. In other words, you’ll never get a chance to work on the “shalls” if
your life’s been wrecked by ignoring the shall nots.
The great German algebraist Carl Jacobi had a maxim on how to approach difficult
math problems: “Invert. Always Invert.” Oftentimes the best way to gain clarity about a
problem is to address it backwards.
This year, don’t ask yourself “What am I going to do to be a better man?” or “What
kind of man do I want to be?” Invert those questions and ask “What am I NOT going to
do to be a better man?” and “What kind of man do I NOT want to be?”
I think you’ll be surprised at the insights you’ll get from the answers to these via
negativa questions.
If you have stupid stuff in your life, remove it. Reducing the downside will have
immediate and noticeable gains that you won’t get with positive actions.
Stop smoking, get rid of debt, get rid of toxic people in your life, quit wasting time on
the internet, stop eating crap, quit porn.
If you’ve already eliminated a lot of bad habits from your life (or never started them in
the first place), take via negativa to the next level by eliminating stuff that might be
good, but takes you away from focusing on the best things in life. On his blog, Cal
Newport shared an anecdotal story about Warren Buffet that illustrates the importance
of choosing the best over the good:
“Buffett wanted to help his employee get ahead in his working life, so he suggested that
the employee list the twenty-five most important things he wanted to accomplish in the
next few years. He then had the employee circle the top five and told him to prioritize
this smaller list.
All seemed well until the wise Billionaire asked one more question: ‘What are you
going to do with the other twenty things?’
The employee answered: ‘Well the top five are my primary focus but the other twenty
come in at a close second. They are still important so I’ll work on those intermittently as
I see fit as I’m getting through my top five. They are not as urgent but I still plan to give
them dedicated effort.’
Buffett surprised him with his response: “No. You’ve got it wrong…Everything you
didn’t circle just became your ‘avoid at all cost list.’”
“People think focus means saying yes to the thing you’ve to focus on. But that’s not
what it means at all. It means saying no to the hundred other good ideas that there are.
You have to pick carefully. I’m actually as proud of the things we haven’t done as the
things I have done. Innovation is saying no to 1,000 things.”
Eliminating obvious downsides like bad habits and debt will provide a good life;
eliminating good things so you can focus on the very best will lead to a truly
flourishing life.
If you’ve already made a bunch of stupid mistakes in your life, don’t despair. Yes,
you’ve dug yourself into a hole, but the first step to getting out of that hole is to stop
digging. Resolve today that you’re going to avoid stupid life-altering mistakes
whenever possible. After that, start working your way out of that hole by doing what
you have to do to make things right. It won’t be easy and it will take time, but
improvement and turnarounds are possible. Plenty of people have done it before and so
can you.
(3) Be curious
“Curiosity is antifragile . . . and is magnified by attempts to satisfy it.” Curiosity
and its close cousin, discovery, like disturbances – disturbances create unexpected
opportunities to learn more and help us to grow stronger in the face of challenges that
we had not anticipated.
by Todd
Our modern world is built on fragile systems. Systems that get worse, not better, with the smallest of
stressors. Technology is a wonderful and scary tool. Systems get hacked. Bugs cause chaos. And it all
depend on our power grid.
Think about our ‘just in time’ food delivery system, transportation, municipal water,
medicine, banks, and even our governmental system. All are delicately fragile.
The lights are on, gas is in the car, food in the fridge, and your baby is healthy. A small
glitch or hiccup in ‘normal’ can disrupt your comfort level. When a regional natural
disaster like Hurricane Sandy hits, our modern systems become worthless. God help us
if disaster ever struck country or world-wide.
Living life is messy even in ‘normal’ conditions. That’s why the preparedness minded
work to simplify systems and build redundancy. How do we know if our plan will hold
up to the stress of what’s coming? It would be wise to create controlled stressors in
normal times to gauge your anti-fragility before all hell breaks loose.
Over a year ago, we experienced our own personal SHTF situation. Dirt Road Girl was
diagnosed with stage 4 cancer. As you might imagine, we were devastated. Suddenly,
one thing mattered. Survival!
Due to DRG’s attitude, prayers from family and friends, and a second opinion from a
wise doctor, she’s bouncing back and taking full advantage of her second chance at life.
She’s more than resilient. She’s becoming antifragile.
She’s a shining example of what ‘doing the stuff’ is all about. Her fighting spirit
motivates me – stops my complaining – causes me to be more honest with myself –
teaches me to laugh at life… and death – makes me embrace both my mortality and
immortality.
No shame in failure – try again – and fail again. Caroline Cooper used the term
‘antifragile’ in an email to me recently. What a great word! It comes from Antifragile:
Things That Gain From Disorder, a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
“Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility,
randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Yet, in
spite of the ubiquity of the phenomenon, there is no word for the exact opposite of
fragile. Let us call it antifragile. Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The
resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better.” [Emphasis
mine]
This is not a book review since I’ve not read his book yet. Anti-fragility is what I’ve
been promoting on this blog without being aware of the term. (I’m ordering his book
today).
How can becoming antifragile make our preparations and life better?
Let’s see, we live in a fragile system/world. A SHTF event, personal or otherwise, will
happen. It shakes us to our core. Our foundation is compromised. Paradigms are
destroyed. What you thought would work doesn’t. The ‘plan’ and the ‘backup plan’
fail. The map you were told to follow leads you to a bridge to nowhere.
The SmartPrepper builds anti-fragility. Strategies that gain from disorder and disaster.
1.) Economics: Decrease your exposure in the fragile banking system as much as
possible. A hundred years ago our Federal Reserve (private central bank) started a
stupid system that can’t withstand shock. Our fractional reserve banking is too big to
fail. Their rules don’t apply to the individual – you and me. If individuals make stupid
mistakes, we get immediate results. Failure is a great teacher.
Antifragile Strategy: Invest in tangibles. Productive land, skills, natural health, quality
tools, precious metals, and stuff you can’t make on your own. Having the ability to
produce potable water may be more valuable gold. You can’t drink gold.
Antifragile Strategy: You are the answer for your problems. But you can’t do it alone.
You need local community no matter how self-sufficient you’ve become. A bunker
mentality will not save you.
Start by building antifragile systems and skills locally – produce real food (even with
limited space), make your home a producer instead of a consumer (rain collection
systems, alternative and sustainable energy, etc.), buy locally grown real food, and
support local producers.
3.) Education: Let me be clear. ‘Education’ is not referring to school. Schools do one
thing very well – schooling. Schools are the last places on earth to learn anti-fragility.
Students are not allowed to explore their interests. There’s simply not enough time and
the overseers can’t allow individualism to take root. Schools are just another too-big-to-
fail, propped up government institution that is wildly successful at failure.
“Children do not need to be made to learn about the world or shown how. They want to,
and they know how.” – John Holt
John Taylor Gatto once said, “Genius is as common as the air we breath.” Schools are
not structured to allow genius to be developed. If that’s true with kids in school, the
same goes for you as a life learner. Keep learning. Avoid the cookie-cutter mentality
of factory schooling – for you and your children’s future. Build skills, then get
educated.
4.) Take Risks and Keep Doing the Stuff: Anti-fragility places high value on doing
over just thinking. Risk failure. Fail. Try it again. Get it right.
Antifragile Strategy: Now is the time to practice doing the stuff before an event forces
you. I’m a huge proponent of testing gear, knowledge, attitude, and abilities. This alone
will prepare you for those pesky unknown unknowns. Even doing the stuff now
won’t guarantee success when it counts. But it will greatly increase the odds in your
favor when disorder and volatility show up on your doorstep.
Self-imposed stressors help gauge your anti-fragility. Knowledge may weigh nothing,
but until you start doing the stuff, your book knowledge won’t matter. There’s a big gap
between reading a how-to on blacksmithing and actually hammering hot steel into a
useful object.
Here’s some of the ways to start doing the antifragile stuff. Note: Doing this stuff is for
healthy people who want to stress their system in a natural, healthy way.
Physical Stuff
Part of your plan may be to grab your Bug Out Bag and walk to a pre-
determined location if need be. We do what we practice. At least once a week,
sometimes more, DRG and I do our B.O.B. workout. That is, we strap on our
fully loaded backpacks (72 hour go-bags) and hike around our town and
neighborhood (about 3 or 4 miles). If you’ve got a B.O.B. laying in your closet
that you’ve never carried, try it. You might find your hips and legs need more
practice doing this stuff. We’re not sure if we’d ever need to bug out, but it’s
comforting to know we could physically if we had to. [Tip: Don’t go all Rambo
on your outings. Blend in as much as possible. You’re simply conditioning for
your summer hiking trip.]
B.O.B. Monday workout! Notice the SmartPrepper apparel :)
Stress your body. Anyone that’s hung out here knows that I’m not a fan of
conventional workouts (repetitive, boring gym workouts). My plan involves
lifting heavy things, moving slowly daily (walking), and sprinting (max effort)
once a week. It’s not rocket science. Move in a way that builds functional
fitness. If you’re interested in learning more, you can check the Brick House
Workout here. Keep your body in a state of randomness.
Polar dip. That’s right. Taking a dip in a cold water stresses your system. I also
take cold showers regularly in the hot months – and occasionally in the winter.
There’s nothing like diving into the lake at the Dam Cabin in November,
climbing out shivering, and warming up by the camp fire. Sound crazy? You
may be surprised at the health benefits. I’m not suggesting you turn your hot
water heater into a bar-b-que grill. Just test the cold water to see if it works for
you.
Get grounded. Three years ago I removed the casts (running shoes) from my
feet. Now I run in my birthday shoes. My students think I’m nuts. They wonder
if I ever step in dog poop – their biggest concern. Barefoot running has taken the
stress off my joints, improved my balance, and strengthened my feet and ankles.
If you’re considering an unshod run, be smart and invest some time in research.
Begin here. Even if you never run ‘naked’, loose the shoes and walk in your
yard. Feel the grass/weeds between your toes. There are free health benefits to
putting your sole on the ground (earthing).
Food Stuff
Intermittent Fasting: IF has many benefits other than weight loss. Here’s a IF
resource I’ve put together if you’re interested. Skipping meals may one not be
optional one day.
Variety: Try new food. Shock you system with occasional wild foods and
fermented food. Heck, just stop eating processed junk will send healthy shock
waves through the Standard American’s Diet.
Eat the real stuff: Eating real food is now trendy and revolutionary. We call it
organic. It’s really the nutrient dense foods that our grandparents cooked from
scratch before our wonderful industrial food machine destroyed our eats. Buying
(if you can’t grow your own) local naturally raised or organic plants and animals
not only makes you healthy, it your community antifragile.
System Stuff
Water. Can’t do without this stuff. What’s your system for acquiring H2O?
Depending on your city/county to deliver potable water after an event is fragile
thinking. Build an antifragile system that improves your life.
Security. Dialing 911 is an option if your life is threatened. But know that you’re
beholden to a response time that may be too late. Take your security into your
own hands. ‘Nuff said.
Waste. Okay, this is a dirty subject, but… I don’t think many of us give it a
second thought. When the Sh*t Hits The Fan, what do you do with the brown
stuff? We take for granted that our toilet handle will always handle the job and
paper work. If our fragile system fails, what’s your plan to eliminate your waste?
Outhouse or 5 gallon bucket and a Sears and Roebuck catalog? You may want to
look into some type of composting toilet. Just saying.
Networking. Building relationships with other antifragile people increases your
chances of surviving stressors. You won’t need to just borrow a cup of milk
from your nurse neighbor post-collapse, she’d be sewing up that gash in your
foot from a glancing blow at the firewood shed. Neighboring and networking
now is the antifragile thing to do to avoid the rush.
Alright, your turn. What systems and strategies do you recommend for anti-fragility?
See you in the comments!
Becoming Antifragile
Taleb’s Antifragile has given me plenty of food for thought. I now look at everything
through the lens of his triad. It’s a fascinating mental exercise organizing the world
around you as fragile, resilient, or antifragile.
Applying this to my own personal life has been an eye-opening experience. Where am I
fragile? How can I make different areas of my life antifragile? Can I do things to help
my family become antifragile?
While I’ve long been a proponent of becoming psychologically resilient, I really like the
idea of going a step farther — not just staying the same during adversity, but becoming
mentally stronger from it. I want to learn how I can create an environment that makes
such an outcome a possibility.
Most of Taleb’s book is filled with tactics and heuristics you can use to make your life
and business more antifragile. Here are some of his tips, as well as a few of my own:
Intentionally inject stress in your life. Stress has gotten a bad rap; while long-term
stress can have deleterious effects, short bouts of it can make you stronger and better.
Your body and mind have antifragility built into them, but require stress for that
antifragility to activate. A few ways to inject positive stress into your life: fast, take cold
showers, do a challenging obstacle race, lift heavy weights, run instead of bike.
Add redundancies in your life. Start that emergency fund; add buffers in your
schedule to take into account the inevitable volatility that comes each day; make that
bug-out bag. The gains from redundancies increase as volatility increases.
Employ the “barbell strategy.” Taleb describes the “barbell strategy” as “a dual
attitude of playing it safe in some areas and taking a lot of small risks in others, hence
achieving antifragility.” Playing it safe reduces the potential downside of volatility and
taking small risks exposes you to the potentially massive gains from the same chaos.
For the Average Joe it could mean keeping your boring day job (the safe end of the
barbell), while working on your side hustle at night (the risky end of the barbell). If the
side hustle doesn’t work out, you still have your boring job, but if it does work out, you
could live the dream of working for yourself and becoming wealthy.
Never take advice from someone who doesn’t have “skin in the game.” We live in a
world in which people’s actions, opinions, and advice are divorced from consequences.
We no longer force people to have “skin in the game.” This fragilizes society. Financial
advisors on TV can give terrible advice and pundits can spout off wrong opinions but
suffer no consequence for their erroneous predictions, even if those predictions harm
others.
When determining whether or not to take advice from someone, look to see if they have
skin in the game. If the person dispensing the advice or making the prediction has
nothing to lose from being wrong, don’t listen to them. Pay more attention to people
who have accepted risk and responsibility for their words.
Practice via negativa. According to Taleb, “the first step towards antifragility consists
in first decreasing downside.” We do that through practicing via negativa — a phrase
borrowed from theology. Instead of focusing your time on adding things to your life to
make it better, focus first on subtracting habits, practices, things, people that fragilize
you. A few examples: get rid of debt, quit smoking, stop hanging around toxic friends,
eliminate unhealthy foods.
Keep your options open. Increase optionality in your life. When volatility and chaos
increase, it’s the man with the most options who is the most antifragile. How do you
increase optionality? Having money in the bank certainly increases your options; it
gives you breathing room during economic downturns, but also provides flexibility to
take advantage of positive unforeseen opportunities or to pursue goals. Increasing your
skills gives you optionality as well. If one career goes bust, you have the skills to
jumpstart a new one.
Many of these methods deserve more unpacking, and we’ll be revisiting how to become
more antifragile in greater detail in the coming year. Until then, I highly recommend
picking up a copy of Antifragile. It’s a great book that’s both enlightening and enjoyable
to read.