Teaching Plan

Course Code

Course Title Decisions Analysis and Modeling

Course Arti Deo, Ashu Sharma, Pradeep Pai, T Kachwala

Instructor/s
Credit Value 3

Programme & FT MBA Program - I year Trim II (2017-18)

Trimester
Pre-requisite Statistical Analysis for Business Decisions

Course Learning 1. To build a culture of informed decision making having multiple perspectives
Objectives using Mathematical Modeling
(CLO’s) 2. Equip students with theoretical and practical knowledge of Mathematical
Modeling
3. Develop analytical skills in business to handle decisions and problems in the
area of business
4. Analyze and connect functional areas of business for optimization
Evaluation Mid - term Exam 30%
Pattern Quiz1 10%
Quiz 2 10%
End-Term Exam 50%
Total 100%
Session Plan
Session Topic
01 Introduction to Operations Research – Definition and Relevance to
Management, Meaning of the title Operations Research –
Mathematical Modeling
2 to 5 Forecasting Methods - Definition, Relevance & Importance, Time
Series Analysis - Smoothing Methods – moving average, weighted
moving average, exponential smoothing, Correlation Analysis –
Scatter diagram, Correlation coefficient, Causal Regression – 2
Variable & 3 Variable Models, Coefficient of determination, Trend
Forecasting using regression, Seasonal Variation using smoothing
method & regression analysis
Case Problem – Seasonal Variation using Excel
Interpretation of output summary using Excel functions & Data
Analysis Menu
6 to 8 Decision Theory – Introduction / Concepts of State of Nature,
Strategy, Payoff, Payoff Matrix, Environments of Decision Making –
Decision making under certainty, Decision Making under Risk – EMV
Criterion, Concept of EPPI & EVPI, Regret Matrix & EOL criterion,
Decision making under Uncertainty – Principles of Maximax,
Maximin, Hurwitz, Max Average, Minimax Regret
9 to 11 Decision Tree Analysis – Drawing Decision Tree, Concept of Nodes &
Branches, Multiple stage Decision Analysis, & Bayesian approach to
Decision Analysis
Case Problem – Decision Tree Analysis using Tree Plan
 12 to 13 Linear Programming – Introduction, Applications, Meaning of the
title, Formulation of Linear Programming Problems, Use of QM for
windows and solver in MS Excel
14 to 17 Linear Programming Optimum Solution – Graphical Method, Simplex
Method (All Slack Starting solution & Big M Method), Case Problem
– Production Strategy. Use of QM for windows and solver in MS
Excel, Software output interpretation
18 to 20 Linear Programming - Special Cases, Primal – Duality in Linear
Programming & Sensitivity Analysis in Linear Programming
Teaching / Numerical, Case Problems, analysis of output summary (using standard software)
Learning
Methodology
Text Book / Text Book
Reading List and 1) Management Science by Anderson, Sweeney, Williams
References References;
2) Operations Research – Theory & Applications by J K Sharma
3) Operations Research by Taha
4) Quantitative Analysis for Management by Render, Ralph, Hanna
5) Introduction to Operations Research (9th Edition) by Hillier & Liberman, McGraw-
Hill Ltd.
6) Problems in Operations Research by Hira & Gupta
7) Quantitative Techniques in Management by N D Vohra
8) Operations Research by Pradeep Pai – Oxford University Press

Faculty Signature:

Arti Deo, Ashu Sharma, Pradeep Pai, T Kachwala

Approved by:

Area Chairperson Program Chairperson Dean SBM