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Wind Energy Country PDF
Wind Energy Country PDF
Communicated by James G. Anderson, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, April 29, 2009 (received for review November 6, 2008)
The potential of wind power as a global source of electricity is of the relatively high spatial resolution available with this product
assessed by using winds derived through assimilation of data from a as compared with the lower spatial resolutions available with
variety of meteorological sources. The analysis indicates that a net- alternative products such as ERA-40, NECP II, and JRA-25. It is
work of land-based 2.5-megawatt (MW) turbines restricted to non- used here in a detailed study of the potential for globally distributed
forested, ice-free, nonurban areas operating at as little as 20% of their wind-generated electricity in 2006.
rated capacity could supply >40 times current worldwide consump- We begin with a description of the methodology adopted for
tion of electricity, >5 times total global use of energy in all forms. the present study. The land-based turbines envisaged here are
Resources in the contiguous United States, specifically in the central assumed to have a rated capacity of 2.5 MW with somewhat
plain states, could accommodate as much as 16 times total current larger turbines, 3.6 MW, deployed offshore, reflecting the
demand for electricity in the United States. Estimates are given also greater cost of construction and the economic incentive to
for quantities of electricity that could be obtained by using a network deploy larger turbines to capture the higher wind speeds avail-
of 3.6-MW turbines deployed in ocean waters with depths <200 m able in these regions. In siting turbines over land, we specifically
within 50 nautical miles (92.6 km) of closest coastlines. excluded densely populated regions and areas occupied by
forests and environments distinguished by permanent snow and
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averaged power production of 14 terawatts (TW)] equal to 7 times layer centers and layer edges in addition to wind speeds (me-
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the total current global consumption of electricity (comparable to ridional and zonal) and temperatures at the midpoint of indi-
present global use of energy in all forms). Their study was based on vidual layers with a time resolution of 6 h. The 3 lowest layers are
an analysis of data for the year 2000 from 7,753 surface meteoro- centered at approximate altitudes of 71, 201, and 332 m. The 6-h
logical stations complemented by data from 446 stations for which data for the 3 lowest layers are used in the present analysis by
vertical soundings were available. They restricted their attention to using an interpolation scheme indicated as follows to estimate
power that could be generated by using a network of 1.5-megawatt temperatures, pressures, and wind speeds at 100 m, the hub
(MW) turbines tapping wind resources from regions with annually height for the 2.5- and 3.6-MW turbines considered here.
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averaged wind speeds in excess of 6.9 m/s (wind class 3 or better) Knowing pressures at the lower and upper edges of individual
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at an elevation of 80 m. The meteorological stations used in their layers together with temperatures and pressures at the midpoints
analysis were heavily concentrated in the United States, Europe, of the layers, altitudes corresponding to the midpoints of the
and Southeastern Asia. Results inferred for other regions of the layers are calculated based on an iterative application of the
world are subject as a consequence to considerable uncertainty. barometric law by assuming a linear variation of temperature
The present study is based on a simulation of global wind fields between the midpoints of individual layers. The barometric law
from version 5 of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data was also used to calculate the pressure at 100 m. Wind speeds and
Assimilation System (GEOS-5 DAS). Winds included in this com- temperatures at 100 m were computed by using a cubic spline fit
pilation were obtained by retrospective analysis of global meteo- to data at the midpoints of the 3 lowest layers.
rological data using a state-of-the-art weather/climate model in- The kinetic energy of the wind intercepted by the blades of a
corporating inputs from a wide variety of observational sources (5), turbine per unit time (P) depends on the density of the air (),
including not only surface and sounding measurements as used by the area swept by the rotor blades (r2), and the cube of the wind
Archer and Jacobson (4) but also results from a diverse suite of speed (V 3) reduced by an efficiency or power factor ( fp) accord-
measurements and observations from a combination of aircraft, ing to the formula (6):
balloons, ships, buoys, dropsondes and satellites, in short the gamut
of observational data used to provide the world with the best
possible meteorological forecasts enhanced by application of these Author contributions: X.L. and M.B.M. designed research; X.L. and M.B.M. performed
data in a retrospective analysis. The GEOS-5 wind field is currently research; X.L., M.B.M., and J.K. analyzed data; and X.L., M.B.M., and J.K. wrote the paper.
available for the period 2004 to the present (March 20, 2009) with The authors declare no conflict of interest.
plans to extend the analysis 30 years back in time. The GEOS-5 Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.
assimilation was adopted in the present analysis to take advantage 1To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: mbm@seas.harvard.edu.
冉 冊
reflecting the fact that maintenance is normally scheduled for
P䡠T 1/3
periods of relatively low wind conditions (11). We restrict
Vcorrected ⫽ 䡠 Voriginal, [2] attention in this analysis to regions with capacity factors ⬎20%.
1.225R
where P and T identify the air pressures and temperatures at the Geographic Constraints
hub height and R denotes the atmospheric gas constant, 287.05 The Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MO-
N䡠m/(kg䡠K) for dry air. DIS) provides a useful record of the spatial distribution of
Optimal spacing of turbines in an individual wind farm involves different types of land cover for 2001, with a horizontal resolu-
a tradeoff among a number of factors, including the costs of tion of ⬇1 km ⫻ 1 km. This record will be used to exclude from
individual turbines, costs for site development, and costs for laying our analysis areas classified as forested, areas occupied by
power cables, in addition to expenses anticipated for routine permanent snow or ice, areas covered by water, and areas
operations and maintenance (O&M). Turbines must be spaced to identified as either developed or urban.
minimize interference in airflow caused by interactions among Wind speeds are generally lower over forested areas, reflecting
individual turbines. This process requires a compromise between additional surface roughness. Consequently, turbines would have to
the objective to maximize the power generated per turbine and the be raised to a higher level in these environments to provide an
competing incentive to maximize the number of turbines sited per acceptable economic return. Although it might be reasonable for
unit area (8). Restricting overall power loss to ⬍20% requires a
downstream spacing of ⬎7 rotor diameters with cross-wind spacing
of ⬎4 diameters (9, 10). Applying this constraint to the 2.5-MW GE
turbines (rotor diameter 100 m, r ⫽ 50 m) requires an interturbine
areal spacing of 0.28 km2. Similar restrictions apply to the spacing
of offshore turbines (rotor diameter 111 m, r ⫽ 55.5 m). For present
purposes we assume an area for individual offshore turbines of 5 ⫻
10 rotor diameters corresponding to an occupation area per turbine
of 0.616 km2. The greater spacing for offshore turbines was selected
to ensure that the overall power loss should be limited to 10%
compensating for the presumed higher cost of installation and
greater O&M expense for turbines operating in the more hostile
marine environment (8, 9). Subject to these constraints, we propose
to calculate the electricity that could be generated potentially every
6 h on the scale of the individual grid elements defined by the
GEOS database (⬇66.7 km ⫻ 50.0 km) subject to the additional
spatial limitations identified below.
In addition to providing an estimate for the maximum poten-
tial power generation, we propose to evaluate also the power
yield expressed as a fraction of the rated power potential of the
installed turbines, i.e., to account for the anticipated variability
of the wind over the course of a year. This quantity is referred
to as the capacity factor (CF), defined by the relation
Preal
CF ⫽ ⫻ 100%, [3]
Prated
CO2 emission and electricity consumption are for 2005; data are from the
Energy Information Administration (http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/index.cfm).
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terrestrial environments. Public pressures in opposition to the former We focus here on the potential energy that could be intercepted
and converted to electricity by a globally distributed array of wind
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are also generally more intense, at least in the U.S.
Topographic relief data for both land and ocean areas were turbines, the distribution and properties of which were described
derived from the Global Digital Elevation Model (GTOPO30) of above. Accounting for land areas we judge to be inappropriate for
the Earth Resources Observation and Science Data Center of the their placement (forested and urban regions and areas covered
U.S. Geological Survey. The spatial resolution of this data source either by water or by permanent ice), the potential power source is
estimated at 2,350 quad (2,470 EJ). The distribution of potential
for offshore environments (bottom topography) is ⬇1 km ⫻ 1 km
power for this more realistic case is illustrated in Fig. 1. We
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(12). A number of factors conspire to limit the development of
restricted attention in this analysis to turbines that could function
offshore wind farms. Aesthetic considerations, for example, have
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with capacity factors at or ⬎20%.
limited development of wind resources in the near-shore environ-
Results for the potential electricity that could be generated
ment in the U.S. although objections to near-shore development in using wind on a country-by-country basis are summarized in Fig.
Europe appear to have been less influential. There is a need to also 2 for onshore (A) and offshore (B) environments. Placement of
accommodate requirements for shipping, fishing, and wildlife re- the turbines onshore and offshore was restricted as discussed
serves and to minimize potential interference with radio and radar earlier. Table 1 presents a summary of results for the 10 countries
installations. Accounting for these limitations, Musial and Butter- identified as the largest national emitters of CO2. The data
field (13) and Musial (14), in a study of offshore wind power included here refer to national reporting of CO2 emissions and
potential for the contiguous U.S., chose to exclude development of electricity consumption for these countries in 2005. An updated
wind farms within 5 nautical miles (nm) (9.3 km) of shore and version of the table would indicate that China is now the world’s
restrict development to 33% of the available area between 5 and 20 largest emitter of CO2, having surpassed the U.S. in the early
nm (9.3–37 km) offshore, expanding the potential area available to months of 2006. Wind power potential for the world as a whole
67% between 20 and 50 nm (37–92.6 km). and the contiguous U.S. is summarized in Table 2.
For purposes of this study, following Dvorak et al. (15), we The results in Table 1 indicate that large-scale development of
consider 3 possible regimes for offshore development of wind wind power in China could allow for close to an 18-fold increase
power defined by water depths of 0–20, 20–50, and 50–200 m. in electricity supply relative to consumption reported for 2005.
Somewhat arbitrarily, we limit potential deployment of wind The bulk of this wind power, 89%, could be derived from
farms to distances within 50 nm (92.6 km) of the nearest onshore installations. The potential for wind power in the U.S.
shoreline, assuming that 100% of the area occupied by these is even greater, 23 times larger than current electricity consump-
waters is available for development. tion, the bulk of which, 84%, could be supplied onshore. Results
No CF 20% CF No CF 20% CF
Areas limitation limitation limitation limitation
Onshore 1,100 690 84 62
Offshore 0–20 m 47 42 1.9 1.2
Offshore 20–50 m 46 40 2.6 2.1
Offshore 50–200 m 87 75 2.4 2.2
Total 1,300 840 91 68
Analysis assumes loss of 20% and 10% of potential power for onshore and
offshore, respectively, caused by interturbine interference. Analysis assumes
offshore siting distance within 50 nm (92.6 km) of the nearest shoreline.
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www.ercot.com/news/presentations/2006/
calculated initially on the basis of the reported average wind speeds
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ATTCH㛭A㛭CREZ㛭Analysis㛭Report.pdf.).
An important issue relating to the integration of electricity for the involved layers. Adopting a typical value of ⬇135 m for the
height of the boundary between the first 2 layers, given a rotor
derived from wind into a grid incorporating contributions from a
diameter of 100 m as appropriate for the assumed onshore turbines,
variety of sources relates to the challenge of matching supply with
it follows that 99% of the area swept out by the rotors would
load demand, incorporating a contribution to supply that is intrin-
intercept air from the first layer, with only 1% encountered in the
sically variable both in time and space and subject to prediction second layer. The power intercepted by the rotors may be calculated
errors. This challenge can be mitigated to some extent if the
ENVIRONMENTAL
in this case by averaging appropriately the power intercepted in the
variations of wind sources contributing to an integrated transmis-
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2 layers. Implementing this approach yielded results that differed
sion grid from different regions are largely uncorrelated. An typically slightly lower, by ⬍15% for the onshore results presented
anomalously high contribution from one region can be compen- above, by ⬍7% for the offshore results.
sated in this case by an anomalously low contribution from another. The GEOS-5 data had a spatial resolution of ⬇66.7 km ⫻ 50.0
To investigate the significance of this potential compensation, we km. It is clear that wind speeds can vary significantly over distances
examined the covariance of wind resources from 3 specific regions, much smaller than the resolution of the present model in response
one in Montana, the second in Minnesota, and the third in Texas, to changes in topography and land cover (affected in both cases by
as indicated in Fig. 6. Analysis of 6-h averaged potential wind- variations in surface roughness). In general, we expect the electric-
generated supplies of electricity from the 3 regions over the 4 ity yield computed with a low-resolution model to underestimate
seasons, winter, spring, summer, and fall, yielded the results sum-
marized in Table 3. Contributions from the 3 regions are essentially
uncorrelated during the winter months (October through March) Table 3. Correlations of wind power potential between selected
regions of Montana (MT), Minnesota (MN), and Texas (TX) in
with r values of ⬍0.07. Correlation coefficients (r values), however,
different seasons for 2006
are relatively high in summer (July through September) with values
ranging from 0.28 (Montana versus Texas) to 0.37 (Montana versus Correlation coefficient, r
Minnesota) with intermediate values in spring. The analysis sug- Region Jan.–March April–June July–Sept. Oct.–Dec.
gests that wind power could make a relatively reliable contribution
to anticipated base load demand in winter. It may be more difficult MN–MT 0.027 0.11 0.37 ⫺0.15
MN–TX 0.069 0.29 0.29 ⫺0.060
to incorporate wind power resources into projections of base load
MT–TX 0.065 0.26 0.28 ⫺0.0024
demand for other seasons, particularly for summer.
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