INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENERGY RESEARCH

Int. J. Energy Res., 23, 909 }917 (1999)

A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF WIND ENERGY POTENTIAL

AT THE EASTERN REGION OF SAUDI ARABIA

AHMET Z. S,AHIN* AND AHMET AKSAKAL

Department of Mechanical Engineering, King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals, Dhahran, 31261, Saudi Arabia
The Research Institute, Division 4, King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals, Dhahran, 31261, Saudi Arabia

SUMMARY
The energy potential of wind for the eastern region of Saudi Arabia is investigated based on measurements of a complete
year data at a coastal location in eastern Saudi Arabia. A suitable Weibull distribution is generated and a comparison of
this model is made with the Rayleigh distribution of wind power densities. Two horizontal-axis type of wind energy
conversion systems which operate at "xed rpm are considered for the determination of the extractable wind power, and
a model of quadratic power output function is used between the cut-in speed and rated speed. It is shown that small-scale
wind energy systems are suitable in the eastern part of Saudi Arabia for power generation and irrigation purposes.
Copyright  1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

KEY WORDS: energy; environment; statistical data; wind; wind power

1. INTRODUCTION
Wind energy systems (windmills) have been used for centuries in rural areas for pumping water and grinding
grain. Environmental impacts of fossil fuels in the form of air pollution, acid rain and greenhouse e!ects have
made attractive the renewable and environmentally benign alternative energy sources such as wind energy.
The possibility of harnessing the wind energy on a local basis for applications in rural areas and remote areas
is an additional advantage. Technically usable wind energy potential is estimated to be about 30 trillion kWh
per year which is nearly one-third of the current total world energy consumption (Wilbur, 1985). Geographi-
cal areas are rated in terms of wind power density availability. This is done using average wind speeds
considering diurnal and seasonal variations. Although, wind speeds are in#uenced strongly by local
topographical features, in general, it is realized that certain geographical locations have higher wind energy
areas than others. Feasibility study of any wind energy conversion system certainly includes the study of
spatial, temporal and directional variation of wind speeds. This is a very di$cult task because of the extreme
transitions in speed and direction of wind at most sites. In order to optimize wind energy conversion systems
and maximize the energy extraction, annual, monthly, daily and even hourly frequency distributions of wind
data are required.
The energy harnessing capability of a wind energy conversion system over long periods of time with
a wide range of wind conditions depends on the operating conditions and performance characteristics
of the wind energy conversion system. Because of the unsteady nature of the wind, it is impossible to
develop a model and determine the transient response of the wind conversion system from wind speed
and power output data. Thus, wind power generation will be closely related to the wind characteristics

*Correspondence to: Ahmet Z. S,ahin, Department of Mechanical Engineering, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals,
Dhahran, 31261, Saudi Arabia. Email: azsahin@kfupm.edu.sa

CCC 0363}907X/99/100909}09$17.50 Received 5 October 1998

Copyright  1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Accepted 22 November 1998
910 A. Z. S,AHIN AND A. AKSAKAL

of the site even though the performance characteristics of the wind energy conversion system are available
(Wortman, 1983).
Economic feasibility studies of a wind energy conversion system are based on the value of the energy
captured relative to the initial investment and cost of operation and maintenance. Lack of accurate data on
long-term wind speed distribution may provide inaccurate results. Detailed data for the distribution of wind
speed and directions over a long period of time are needed so that the statistical data base for long-term
predictions of energy capture is possible. Unfortunately, this type of information is available only for a very
limited number of sites. Therefore, it is generally necessary to extrapolate from the data available and assume
reasonable annual variations. The mean wind speed for a given year varies from year to year but within
$10% of the long term mean (Ramachandra et al., 1997). A $10% variation in the mean wind speed would
show a variation in the energy content of about$30%.
Wind energy is considered to be a suitable choice of energy source for underground water extraction and
electric power generation in the rural areas of Saudi Arabia. Springs and big water reserves have been found
in Al-Hassa, Dammam and Qateef in the eastern region at depths of between 300 and 3000 m. Natural
springs provide sweet water for drinking and irrigation purposes. In the absence of large surface water
resources, the government attaches great importance to the exploration of underground water resources and
their exploitation (Anon, 1994). In addition, the government has established some big projects to desalinate
sea water (a costly process) in the coastal areas. There is a growing demand for water for drinking, irrigation
as well as industrial use. Figure 1 shows the total water supply from desalination plants (Saudi Statistics,
1997). During the last decade, there has been very little increase in the water supply from the desalination
plants because of the costly processes. However, rapid development in the past years has led to a noticeable
increase in water consumption. This indicates that, other means of water extraction that are more economic
are becoming increasingly important in this part of the world. On the other hand, electricity consumption has
increased considerably in Saudi Arabia due to the recent expansion in industry and agriculture and the
growth of cities. Figure 2 shows that the total industrial and non-industrial power consumption took place in
the eastern region during the recent six years. The increase in the consumption of power whose source is
mainly fossil fuels causes many environmental and economic concerns.

Figure 1. Total water supply from desalination plants in Saudi Arabia

Copyright  1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Int. J. Energy Res., 23, 909 }917 (1999)
 ANALYSIS OF WIND ENERGY POTENTIAL 911

Figure 2. Total industrial and non-industrial power consumption in the eastern region of Saudi Arabia

During the past two decades, an increased amount of research activity has been carried out in the area of
wind energy resources and utilization (Mulugetta and Drake, 1996; Ramachandra et al., 1997; Mayhoub and
Azzam, 1997; Sen and Sahin, 1997). Dincer and Rosen (1998) discussed comprehensively the anticipated
patterns of the future of the energy used and the consequent environmental impacts. They identi"ed
some solutions to current environmental issues in terms of energy conservation and renewable energy
technologies. Mohsen and Akash (1998) studied the possibility of using wind energy for water desalination
in Jordan.
In relation to the current work, Sahin (1994) studied the wind power output from a horizontal axis
type of small wind energy conversion system rated at 100 kW at 20 sites in Saudi Arabia based on an early
study made by Al-Ansari et al. (1986). Percent rated power for each site was calculated for both Weibull
and Rayleigh distributions. It is shown that east and west coast areas are potentially high wind energy
areas, whereas minimal wind energy exists in the south and central parts of the country. Sahin and Yilbas
(1994) studied wind power energy potential for the Dhahran site analytically. Generating electricity
utilizing wind/solar energy in Saudi Arabia was studied by El-Shobokshy and El-Zayat (1991) and Nasser
(1981). Al-Garni et al. (1994 and 1997) studied the electric energy consumption forecasting for the eastern
part of Saudi Arabia. A comparative study on the availability of wind power and solar power on the
east coast of Saudi Arabia was made by Al-Sulaiman and Jamjoum (1992). In a more recent study,
Sahin (1995) studied the plant factor variation with installation height for a 100 kW wind energy conversion
system.
An attempt is made in this work to determine the wind energy potential for the eastern region of Saudi
Arabia based on the data obtained for the duration of one complete year at a coastal location in eastern
Saudi Arabia. Measured and approximated wind speed probability distributions by means of Weibull and
Rayleigh models are compared. Two typical small type wind energy conversion systems are selected in order
to compare the suitability of size of wind energy conversion systems. Monthly variation of wind power
densities is also included. It should be noted that the amount of energy captured depends on the surface
roughness factor and the system design power coe$cient which is the ratio of the total energy extracted to the
total energy available.

Copyright  1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Int. J. Energy Res., 23, 909 }917 (1999)
912 A. Z. S,AHIN AND A. AKSAKAL

2. WIND ENERGY POTENTIAL

The kinetic energy of air in wind may be expressed as
1
E" m< (1)
2
where m is the total mass of the air which moves through an area A within a period of time *t and < is the
wind speed. Since m"oA<*t then,
1
E" oA<*t (2)
2
where o in equation (2) is the air density.
The power of the wind therefore is
E 1
P" " oA< (3)
*t 2
and the wind power density becomes
P 1
P " " o< (4)
 A 2

The mean power density on the other hand is usually calculated by

1P 2" 1o21<2 (5)
 
where 1o2 and 1<2 are the mean air density and the mean of the wind speed cubed for a given period of
time.
The Weibull probability density distribution function of the wind speed is


 

k < I\ < I
p(<) " exp ! (6)
5 c c c

where k is a dimensionless shape factor and

1<2
c"
!(1#1/k)
is the scale factor in which ! is the gamma function.
The Weibull distribution reduces to the Rayleigh distribution for k"2 which is obtained as



n< n<
p(<) " exp ! (7)
0 21<2 41<2
In approximating the experimental data as Weibull probability distribution, the parameters that appear in
equation (6) are determined in the following manner (Keoppl, 1982).
Measured wind speed values are divided into intervals 0!< , < !< , 2 , < !< that have frequen-
   L\ L
cies f , f , 2 , f . For this case the cumulative frequencies are p "f , p "p #f , 2 , p "p #f
  L      L L\ L
and the transformation equations are
x "ln < (8)
G G
y "ln [!ln(1!p )], i"1, 2, 2, n (9)
G G
Copyright  1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Int. J. Energy Res., 23, 909 }917 (1999)
 ANALYSIS OF WIND ENERGY POTENTIAL 913

The linear approximation of this data is obtained using the least-squares method, in the form y"mx#b.
Thus the Weibull parameters are obtained as


!b
k"m and c"exp (10)
m

It can be shown (Keoppl, 1982) that the mean of the wind speed cubed that is the third moment of the
distribution for the Weibull probability model is

 
!(1#3/k)
1<2 " 1<2 (11)
5 !(1#1/k)

Equations (11) and (5) can be used for determining the mean power density. For k"2, equation (11)
reduces to


6
1<2 " 1<2 (12)
0 n

that gives the mean of the wind speed cubed for the Rayleigh approximation.

3. WIND POWER PRODUCTION

The site of the experimental data is located on the shore line of the Arabian Gulf in eastern Saudi Arabia,
near Dhahran (263N, 503E). This area is considered to be a semi-desert region due to its extremely low
precipitation rate, high temperatures, and frequent wind-storms. The region is under the in#uence of an
anticyclonic #ow in January, but cyclonic #ow in July (Rielhl, 1979). This study was carried out for the entire
year of 1995. The probability distribution of wind speeds for the coastal region in the eastern Saudi Arabia is
given in Table 1. Measurements were made at a height of 10 m.
The annual mean wind speed is calculated to be 4.99 m s\. This indicates that small scale wind energy
conversion systems are suitable for harnessing wind energy in the eastern region of Saudi Arabia.
The Weibull and Rayleigh approximations of the experimental probability distribution of wind speeds are
shown in Figure 3. Considering the wind speed probability distribution and the mean wind speed, two
horizontal axis type small wind energy conversion systems which operate at "xed rpm are considered in this
study. These are rated as 100 and 200 kW and their characteristics are given in Table 2. These wind energy
conversion systems correspond to those of NASA 100 kW and US Department of Energy's Mod-OA wind
machines, respectively.
Power output approximation of this wind energy conversion system involves a quadratic modelling that
approximates the output between cut-in and rated wind speeds as

P(<)"A#B<#C< (13)
where A, B, and C are constants. These are evaluated by solving the following set of equations.
A#B< #C<"0
 
A#B< #C<"P (14)
  


< 
A#B< #C<" V P
V V < 

where < "(< #< )/2 and < , < and P are cut-in speed, rated speed and rated power, respectively.
V     
Copyright  1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Int. J. Energy Res., 23, 909 }917 (1999)
914 A. Z. S,AHIN AND A. AKSAKAL

Table 1. The probability distribution of wind speeds

Wind speed Occurrence Wind speed Occurrence

range (m/s) % of time range (m/s) % of time

0)<(1 2)5635 9)<(10 3)2217

1)<(2 8)0254 10)<(11 2)9446
2)<(3 14)3418 11)<(12 2)5058
3)<(4 19)3418 12)<(13 1)3049
4)<(5 15)843 13)<(14 0)5658
5)<(6 11)1547 14)<(15 0)3003
6)<(7 7)7483 15)<(16 0)0692
7)<(8 5)8545 16)<(17 0)0115
8)<(9 4)2032

Table 2. The characteristics of the wind energy conversion

systems

Rated power, P (kW) 100 200


Cut-in speed, < (m s\) 3)6 4)25

Rated speed, < (m s\) 8 10

Cut-out speed, < (m s\) 26)8 17)9


Figure 3. The relative probability distribution of wind

The mean power output, 1P2, for the wind energy conversion system may be calculated using

4


1P2" P(<) f (<) d< (15)

4
where f (< ) is the wind speed probability distribution and < is the cut-out speed.

Copyright  1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Int. J. Energy Res., 23, 909 }917 (1999)
 ANALYSIS OF WIND ENERGY POTENTIAL 915

Table 3. Mean power output of the wind energy conversion system

Rated power"100 kW Rated power"200 kW

Mean power % Rated Mean power % Rated

1P2 (kW) power % error 1P2 (kW) power % error

Experiment 34)08 34)08 * 41)76 20)88 *

Weibull 32)90 32)90 3)46 36)52 18)26 12)55
Rayleigh 37)43 37)43 9)83 49)44 24)72 18.39

Figure 4. Monthly variation of wind power density

Table 3 shows the mean power output of the above mentioned energy conversion systems for the
experimental and the two approximate analytical models of wind speed probability distributions. The error
in calculating the mean power output by using a 100 kW wind energy conversion system is less than 10%
in both cases. Weibull distribution yields lower errors, indicating that the Weibull approximation is a better
approximation than Rayleigh approximation. Table 3 shows that smaller wind energy conversion system
operates more e$ciently, since percentage rated power output for 100 kW wind energy conversion system is
much higher than that for 200 kW. This is because the smaller wind energy conversion system would operate
for a longer period due to its lower cut-in speed.
Monthly variation of wind power densities for the Dhahran site is given in Figure 4. It can be seen that the
wind power density is higher during the summer months. Therefore, the use of wind energy in this site
appears to be appropriate in irrigation and generation of electrical energy for space cooling.
Figure 5 shows the directional characteristic of the wind in eastern Saudi Arabia. Both average wind speed
(m/s) and occurrence time (%) are high in the directions of North-West and North-North-West. These are
prevailing wind directions. The average wind speed remains above 4 m s\ in all the north directions.
Consequently, the annual mean wind speed and the spatial and temporal characteristics of wind are of
decisive signi"cance for the technically usable wind power potential. On the other hand, economically usable

Copyright  1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Int. J. Energy Res., 23, 909 }917 (1999)
916 A. Z. S,AHIN AND A. AKSAKAL

Figure 5. Directional characteristics of the wind

wind power potential is that part of the technically usable wind power potential which can be converted into
usable energy.

4. CONCLUSIONS
The conclusions derived from this study can be summarized as follows:
(1) Wind characteristics at a coastal location in the eastern part of Saudi Arabia were investigated and
models were developed using Weibull and Rayleigh wind probability distributions.
(2) Weibull approximation was found to be a better approximation than that of Rayleigh model. The error
obtained is lesser than 10% of the full rated power density level of a 100 kW wind energy conversion
system using both Weibull and Rayleigh models.
(3) Smaller wind energy conversion systems are more e$cient for the wind conditions in this location.
Wind power density available is higher during the summer months and the prevailing wind directions
are North-West and North-North-West directions.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The authors acknowledge the support of King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran, Saudi
Arabia for this work.

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Copyright  1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Int. J. Energy Res., 23, 909 }917 (1999)