ARTICLE IN PRESS

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 69 (2007) 431–448

www.elsevier.com/locate/jastp

Evidence for solar signals in the mesopause temperature

variability?
Kathrin Höppner, Michael Bittner
German Aerospace Center (DLR-DFD), 82 234 Wessling, Germany
Received 22 April 2006; received in revised form 10 October 2006; accepted 20 October 2006
Available online 19 December 2006

Abstract

Nocturnal temperatures are almost continuously derived from OH* (3,1) near-infrared emissions in the upper
mesosphere (around 87 km) above Wuppertal, Germany (511N, 71E) from ground-based measurements since 1980. The
time series analyzed covers the time interval from 1980 until 2005 and consists of 4628 well documented night mean
temperature data. OH* temperature fluctuations on temporal scales of about 3–20 days are derived by removing seasonal
and longer term trends from the data record by means of applying various spectral analysis techniques such as the
harmonic analysis, maximum entropy method (MEM) and the wavelet transform, respectively. The residuals are found to
reflect planetary wave activity.
Spectral intensity of oscillations in the 3–20 days regime shows a longer term modulation peaking around 1981 and 1996,
while minima are encountered around 1986 and 2005. Thus, no conclusive correlation with the solar F10.7 cm flux is
found. Reasonable agreement of planetary wave activity with the general solar bipolar magnetic field (22-year Hale cycle)
is found instead. Further agreement is found with the variations of the length of the day (DLOD) implying that the internal
terrestrial magnetic field is superimposed by the solar magnetic field (Hale cycle) causing modulations of the total magnetic
field in the Earth’s interior and which leads—in turn—to a modulation of the electromagnetic coupling of angular
momentum between the Earth’s core and the Earth’s mantle. As a result the Earth’s rotation period O—and thus the
activity of planetary waves—should be modulated with the solar magnetic flux, e.g. the quasi-22-year Hale cycle.
Planetary wave activity is further found to be modulated by a quasi-2-year oscillation. The modulation is strongest
around 1994/1995 and lowest around 1988 and 2004, respectively. It is found that wave activity is mostly enhanced when
the wind direction of the mean zonal wind of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) reverses from westerly to
easterly.
r 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Hydroxyl airglow; Mesopause temperatures; Planetary waves; Solar cycle influence; QBO; Hale cycle

1. Introduction

For many decades there is an ongoing debate

how variability in solar activity influences the
Corresponding author. Tel.: +49 8153281163; Earth’s atmosphere. The Sun has always been
fax: +49 8153281363. recognized as the ultimate energy source and driver
E-mail address: kathrin.hoeppner@dlr.de (K. Höppner). for life on Earth through providing heat and light.

1364-6826/$ - see front matter r 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2006.10.007
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
432 K. Höppner, M. Bittner / Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 69 (2007) 431–448
Observations of the Sun taken from various
instruments based on the ground, aboard airplanes,
balloons, rockets and satellites yielded wide insight
into both the Sun’s radiative and corpuscular
output (e.g. Kane, 2005). The most prominent
indicator for solar activity undoubtedly is the
number of daily sunspots (Schwabe, 1841; Wolf,
1851), dark spots on the solar photosphere, which
has been recorded for more than 150 years, and
which has been subject to a large number of
investigations (e.g. Blanter et al., 2005; Usoskin
and Mursula, 2003 and references therein). These
observations allowed early identification of the
famous so-called 11-year solar cycle; a quasi-
periodic increase and decrease of the sunspot
number varying between about 8 and 15 years
where the shape of the variation from minimum to
maximum and vice versa is usually not symmetric
(e.g. Moussas et al., 2005). We learned that
although the total solar irradiance varies little in
time (less than 0.1%) there is a clear wavelength
dependence in this. As much as 10% variability is
found at shorter UV wavelengths over the 11-year
cycle and is believed to significantly impact the
atmosphere’s ozone content. As an example,
Dameris et al. (2006) reported about model results
indicating that the 11-year solar cycle will delay the
onset of sustained ozone recovery. This illustrates
that variations in the different spectral regions
might have different impacts on the atmosphere.
Besides its dominant 11-year cycle, the Sun also
exhibits variability over time scales both longer and
shorter than this. Processes in the Sun’s interior,
outbursts of flare activity, the Sun’s rotation,
and related factors generate variations in the
Sun’s radiative and corpuscular output on temporal
scales from seconds to decades or even centuries
and millennia (excellent overviews are given for
example in Lean, 1991 or Moussas et al., 2005).
The variability in the Sun’s activity impacts the
Earth’s atmosphere. Many findings reveal a con-
sistent pattern of atmospheric response to solar
variability as is briefly outlined below. Although
there is evidence that many meteorological
quantities show statistically significant variations
in phase with solar activity cycles, such as the
27-day cycle (due to the Sun’s rotation), the
22-year Hale cycle (due to the overall photospheric
magnetic field reversal) or the Gleissberg cycle
of approximately 80–100 years (due to an amplitude
modulation of the 11-year solar cycle), it has
remained unclear how such relatively small changes
in solar activity could have an important impact
on the Earth’s atmosphere, thus there are still
large gaps in our understanding of solar–terrestrial
interactions. Therefore, the largest international
scientific organization in solar–terrestrial
science, Scientific Committee on Solar–Terrestrial
Physics (SCOSTEP) initiated the Climate and
Weather of the Sun–Earth System (CAWSES)
program in 2004.
One key element that has been largely used to
prove solar–terrestrial interactions is the search for
correlations between solar activity and various
meteorological parameters. Much work has been
done in this respect especially within the tropo-
sphere and stratosphere, over both the land and
ocean surfaces. The reported results are mixed, in
the sense that maximum temperatures are related to
solar maximum or minimum activity and in some
cases almost no correlation at all was found
depending on the location, the time interval and
the analysis technique (e.g. Currie, 1993; White
et al., 1997, 1998; Solanki and Fligge, 1999). An
interesting correlation has been found between
global average of cloud cover and the flux of cosmic
rays incident on the atmosphere (e.g. Svensmark,
1998). Satellite observations have documented
ozone and temperature perturbations at the 27-day
period in the stratosphere. It also appears that
ozone exhibits an 11-year variation (Hood and
McCormack, 1992). Ozone measurements obtained
from satellites and by ground-based instruments
suggest a variation of 2% in global ozone content
between solar maximum and minimum. Labitzke
and van Loon (1997, 1992, 1988) suggested an
association between the 11-year solar cycle and the
stratospheric geopotential height and the tempera-
ture. They showed that the signal is strongest during
northern summer, and that the highest correlations
between the solar cycle and temperatures in the
stratosphere move from one summer hemisphere to
the other, while the highest correlations between the
solar cycle and the stratospheric geopotential
heights move poleward from winter to summer in
both hemispheres. They also suggested that the
QBO modulates the solar signal, when grouping the
data into years where the QBO was westerly and
years when it was easterly, the correlation coeffi-
cient becomes highly positive in the Arctic in the
westerly years and negative in the easterly years.
Planetary wave activity is found to be more
important during the western phase of the QBO
and solar maximum, and less pronounced during
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K. Höppner, M. Bittner / Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 69 (2007) 431–448
the eastern phase and solar minimum. Many
authors conclude that ozone concentration changes
due to solar activity alter the vertical temperature
profile and therefore modify the radiative and
dynamical coupling of the troposphere, stratosphere
and the mesosphere. Analysis of the 11-year solar
cycle observed in the last decades by different
instruments (radars, lidars, radiosondes, metrock-
ets, satellites) suggest that there is a solar signature,
although it is highly variable in amplitude and
in sign and depends on latitude and altitude
(see Tsiropoula, 2003 or Shindell et al., 1999 and
references therein).
Due to the sparseness of data, much less is known
about solar signals in the mesosphere. This is
because longer term and quasi-continuous time
series of upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere
parameters such as temperature are more difficult to
observe; the overall data base that is currently
available is therefore patchy and sparse compared
to what is available for the stratosphere or the
troposphere. However, much work has been done in
the past in using temperature observations derived
from ground-based hydroxyl airglow (e.g. Scheer
et al., 2005; Sigernes et al., 2003; Offermann et al.,
2003; Burns et al., 2002; Reisin and Scheer, 2002;
Espy and Stegman, 2002; Semenov, 2000; Bittner
et al., 2000; Shefov, 1969), metrockets (e.g. Lübken,
2001; Mohanakumar, 1995; Lowe et al., 1996;
Labitzke and Chanin, 1988), and lidar (e.g.
Clemesha et al., 2005; She and Krueger, 2004;
Keckhut et al., 1995). Many of these studies indicate
a positive response to the solar cycle variation, some
do not. A detailed review of many of these results is
given by Beig et al. (2003), and references therein
and will therefore not be repeated here.
In our earlier work (Bittner et al., 2000), we
analyzed a time series of more than 2000 well-
documented daily night mean temperatures cover-
ing the temporal interval from 1987 until 1995
obtained above Wuppertal (511N, 71E). We demon-
strated that solar signals might show up much more
clearly in temperature fluctuations instead of the
temperature itself. Evidence for a possible relation-
ship between solar activity and the amplitude of
planetary scale waves in the mesopause region was
found, however, open questions remained. Espe-
cially, the fact that we observed an increase in the
mesopause temperature standard deviation, within
the time interval covered, was left without explana-
tion. Since that early work, nearly 10 more years of
measurements are available putting us now in a
433
position to improve and update our early analysis
and to try to answer the open questions. A total
of 4628 mean night temperatures covering the
temporal interval from 1980 until 2005 derived
from the OH* (3,1) near-infrared vibrational–rota-
tional-band (E1.5 mm) emissions in the upper
mesosphere (around 87 km) above Wuppertal,
Germany (511N, 71E) are available for this work.
These measurements are analyzed using the harmo-
nic analysis, the maximum entropy, and the wavelet
transform methods.
This paper is organized as follows: the measure-
ments, equipment, principles of operation, and
data reduction are described in Section 2. In
Section 3 the results are presented and are
related to planetary wave activity and its possible
relation to the solar activity (11- and 22-year
solar cycles) and the quasi-biennal oscillation
(QBO). In Section 4 the implications of these results
are discussed and interpretations are presented.
A summary presented in Section 5 concludes the
paper.
2. Data
In the upper mesosphere, atomic hydrogen reacts
with ozone,
H þ O3 ! OH ðv0 p9Þ þ O2 ðþ3:32 eVÞ
to form excited hydroxyl molecules in a layer of
about 8 km thickness at a peak altitude of around
87 km (Bates and Nicolet, 1950; Meinel, 1950). O3 is
produced by the reaction of O with O2 in the lower
thermosphere. The altitude of the OH* layer has
frequently been measured using rocket-borne
photometers, satellite-borne instruments and lidar
remote sensing (through calculating equivalent
OH*-temperatures from lidar temperature profiles)
and was always found to peak at that altitude region
with some minor variability (e.g. von Savigny et al.,
2004; Shepherd et al., 2004; Iwagami et al., 2002;
Melo et al., 2000; She and Lowe, 1998; Takahashi
et al., 1996; Mende et al., 1993; Takano et al.,
1990; Baker and Stair, 1988; von Zahn et al., 1987;
Lopez-Moreno et al., 1987; Watanabe et al., 1981;
Witt et al., 1979; Good, 1976). We therefore assume
that these values apply also to our measurements.
However, it should be noted that the observed
temperature is—to a good approximation—only the
intensity-weighted mean temperature of the emitting
layer. A more detailed description of the hydroxyl
airglow emission technique and a critical review of
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434 K. Höppner, M. Bittner / Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 69 (2007) 431–448
its limitations can be found in Beig et al. (2003).
However, these factors do not disturb the results
presented in this paper.
Excited hydroxyl (OH*) emits radiation in the
visible and near-infrared from several rotational–
vibrational transitions. Near-infrared emissions
around 1.5 mm of excited hydroxyl molecules
around the mesopause region are observed routi-
nely, night by night since 1980, using two ground-
based grating spectrometers above Wuppertal,
Germany (511N, 71E) with high temporal resolution
(1.5 and 4.5 min, respectively), which allows
even rapid changes to be resolved in the intensity
of the lines due to, for example, short-period
gravity waves. The systems are described in detail
in Bittner et al. (2000) and references therein.
Therefore, we restrict ourselves to only a brief
description here.
The spectrometers used are a 0.5 m Ebert–Fastie
spectrometer and a 0.3 m Czerny–Turner spectro-
meter with spectral resolutions of about 450. Both
instruments are equipped with Germanium detec-
tors cooled with liquid nitrogen and exhibit good
long-term stability (Bittner et al., 2000). The
spectral range covered is 1.05–1.8 mm. Rotational
temperatures are derived from the low-lying OH*
(3,1) vibrational P-branch, using the relative in-
tensities of the three rotational lines P1(2), P1(3),
and P1(4) (1.524, 1.534, and 1.543 mm). This is in
agreement with Pendleton et al. (1993), who
recommend using the lowest-lying rotational states
Fig. 1. Time series of nocturnal temperatures derived from OH* (3,1) near-infrared emissions above Wuppertal (511N, 71E) from 1980 to
2005. Vertical dashed lines indicate the beginning of the year. Data points are mean night OH* temperatures.
for temperature determination to avoid non-local-
thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) problems.
Furthermore, the derived temperatures are not
affected by changes of spectrometer sensitivity or
atmospheric transmission unless such changes
are wavelength dependent. Even in that case,
influences would be small because the three
lines are close together. The temperature retrieval
is performed using the transition coefficient
from Mies (1974) and the rotational energy from
Krassovsky et al. (1962). A detailed description
is given by Sivjee and Hamwey (1987). Depending
on the instrument specifications (e.g. zenith angle),
the field-of-view for the two instruments is
7.31  7.31 (16  22 km at 87 km) and 13.51  13.51
(29  41 km at 87 km), respectively. The technique is
based on the assumption that the population
distribution in the rotational states is a Boltzmann
distribution being in equilibrium with the kinetic
temperature of the surrounding atmosphere. The
rotational temperatures derived from our instru-
ments have indeed proven to be good proxies for
atmospheric kinetic temperatures. Reference is
made to Bittner et al. (2002), who give a more
detailed discussion about data accuracy, calibra-
tion efforts undertaken, and a discussion of
various comparisons with other temperature mea-
surements. Recently, OH* temperatures obtained at
Wuppertal, and Hohenpeissenberg (481N, 111E) in
the southern part of Germany, have also been
compared to satellite-based measurements from
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ENVISAT-SCIAMACHY. The mean difference 3. Data analysis and results

was found to be within about 2 K at both sites
which is considered in excellent agreement (von
Savigny et al., 2004). The systematic error of the
night mean temperature value is about 2 K, the
statistical error is about 71.5 K. The measurement
technique used has proven robust allowing mea-
surements even if light clouds or haze are present.
A well-documented time series of 4622 mean
night temperatures recorded in the time period 15
May 1981–27 December 2005 is used for this work
(see Fig. 1). The measurements were manually
started in the evening and manually stopped in the
morning every day (including weekends and festival
days). As mentioned above temperature measure-
ments were taken every 1.5 and 4.5 min, respec-
tively. Data gaps are mainly due to bad weather
(cloud cover) except the large gap from July
1984 to July 1987. During this time both instru-
ments were on missions at different geographic sites.
Only night mean temperatures based at least on 1 h
(integrated time) of good quality data were accepted
for this analysis in order to derive representative
night mean temperatures. The average local solar
time of the night mean temperatures is about
midnight; standard deviation is about 3 h. We
therefore assume—as already stated by Bittner
et al. (2000, 2002) and Wiemert (1993)—that tidal
fluctuations can be regarded as only a minor
influence for this study.
3.1. Detrending seasonal cycles
The mesopause temperature time series presented
in Fig. 1 exhibits a pronounced seasonal cycle which
needs to be removed before studying the fluctua-
tions. In order to best remove this seasonal structure
we applied a harmonic analysis to the data series.
This was done for each year individually to account
for the year-to-year variability of the cycles that is
obvious from the data: for instance, the peak-to-
peak-amplitude of seasonal cycle can vary signifi-
cantly from year to year. A combination of three
sinusoidal harmonics was fitted to the data by
means of a least-squares fit. In contrast to our
earlier analysis (Bittner et al., 2000, 2002) we
decided not to fit an exact annual, semi-annual
and ter-annual component. The reason for this is
that, the seasonal cycle does not follow a perfect
annual, semi-annual and ter-annual structure. We
found that the variability of the data can be better
reduced by allowing—besides phase and ampli-
tude—also the period to be fitted. Since we
concentrate the study on temperature fluctuations
only, it was our aim to apply a scheme that allows
the best elimination of longer scale trends from the
data series, despite what physical meaning may be
associated with them. In contrast to fitting a perfect
annual, semi-annual and ter-annual cycle to the

Fig. 2. (a) Time series of nocturnal mean OH* temperatures (thin curve) for 1993. The thick curve indicates the fit using exactly the
periods of the annual, semi-annual and ter-annual cycles. The variance explained by the fit curve is 88.1%. (b) Same as in (a). The thick
curve indicates now the fit using the harmonic analysis approach with the amplitude, phase and period as free fit parameters. The
explained variance is 90.9%.
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436 K. Höppner, M. Bittner / Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 69 (2007) 431–448

data we were now able to further improve the
explained variance in the data by about 0.2–3.6%,
depending of the individual year (peak of approxi-
mately 3.6% in 1995 and 1990, respectively, an
average of 1.6% of the variance can be explained).
As a typical example, Fig. 2a shows the seasonal
variation of the nocturnal mean OH* temperatures
for 1993 and the fit curve using exactly the periods
of the annual, semi-annual and ter-annual cycles.
The variance explained by the fit curve is 88.1%. In
Fig. 2b the situation shows our improved approach,
with an explained variance of 90.9%. Note, that the
relative minimum in autumn (around day 300) is
much better represented by the new approach.
Table 1 summarizes the explained variances for
both methods for all years. In order to further
improve the harmonic analysis method we followed
the so-called ‘all step method’ (Bittner et al., 1994).
This means that the first sine is fitted to the data, the
residuals are calculated, and subsequently the next
oscillation is adapted and so on. In contrast to the
‘one-step-mode’ one varies simultaneously all para-
meters (in our case: amplitude, phase and period) of
the actual and former approximated sinusoids in
every iteration. This method has proven to yield
stable and good results throughout a broad variety
of applications (see, for example, Wüst and Bittner,
2006). The resulting temperature residuals are
shown in Fig. 3.
3.2. Longer term variability
2004. Fig. 4a also shows the temporal evolution of
the yearly mean solar F10.7 cm flux. Obviously,
during 1981–1990 there seems to be some similarity
between both curves. Such behavior is found also in
other studies. For example, Batista et al. (1994)
found a positive correlation of OH* (9,4) rotational
temperatures with the F10.7 cm solar flux using data
from 1977 to 1986. However, our data show that
this similarity nearly turns into an anti-correlation
for the time period from about 1990 to 2005.
Therefore, when comparing both time series for the
whole temporal interval from 1981 to 2005, no
statistically significant correlation is found between
s and the solar F10.7 cm flux. On the other hand,
the time series of the yearly OH* temperature
fluctuations resemble quite well the evolution of the
solar magnetic field, that is the 22-year solar Hale
cycle (see Fig. 4b). In fact, the physics behind
the 11-year solar cycle is in the 22-year Hale cycle, if
we take into account the time of the overall
photospheric magnetic field reversal. The dipolar
Table 1
Explained variance of the yearly OH* temperature nightly
means from 1981 to 2005 using the harmonic analysis based on
various components. Fit parameters are related to T~ t ¼
P3    2
i¼1Ai sin ð2p=ti Þt þ ji , according to T~ t  T t  ! min
Variance Variance Difference
explained (old explained (new (s2new  s2old )
method) [%] method) [%] [%]

1981 84.02 85.81 1.79

Yearly mean standard deviations, s, of the OH*
1982 86.33 87.30 0.97
temperature fluctuations are calculated from the 1983 89.36 91.16 1.80
above-mentioned temperature residuals. The tem- 1987 94.41 94.94 0.53
poral evolution of s is plotted in Fig. 4a and 1988 91.53 93.05 1.52
exhibits a pronounced longer term variability. 1989 90.28 92.24 1.96
1990 87.16 90.73 3.57
Following Bittner et al. (2000), who analyzed such
1991 90.15 91.05 0.90
fluctuations with respect to their spectral character- 1992 88.54 90.91 2.37
istics based on a shorter subset of this time series 1993 88.10 90.86 2.76
comprising the interval until 1995, we also and 1994 87.87 88.81 0.94
tentatively attribute these residuals at least in part to 1995 84.24 87.82 3.58
1996 85.43 85.60 0.17
the activity of planetary scale waves. As already
1997 88.00 88.50 0.50
mentioned our data base has significantly grown 1998 85.92 86.98 1.06
and holds almost 10 additional years of observa- 1999 89.01 89.24 0.23
tions since then. In our earlier work (Bittner et al., 2000 87.75 89.10 1.35
2000) we described a trend towards increased 2001 91.22 91.91 0.69
2002 88.01 89.66 1.65
hydroxyl temperature variations. Thanks to the
2003 87.42 89.39 1.97
present much longer data record, we recognize that 2004 83.37 86.03 2.66
the standard deviation follows some longer term 2005 85.80 86.62 0.82
modulation: s is low around 1986, high around
Average 1.57
about 1997 and goes down again to lower values in
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K. Höppner, M. Bittner / Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 69 (2007) 431–448 437

Fig. 3. Time series of detrended nocturnal temperatures derived from OH* near-infrared emissions above Wuppertal (511N, 71E). A
combination of three sinusoidal harmonics was fitted to the data using the harmonic analysis. Note, that besides the phase and the
amplitude also the period was fitted, for each year individually (see text for details).

magnetic field of the Sun varies with the 22-year
period and reverses every 11 years (e.g. Moussas
et al., 2005).
As mentioned above, we tentatively associate s
with the activity of planetary scale waves. This is
due to the results of a spectral analysis. Wavelet
analysis is especially useful for transient signals. It
provides a locally resolved spectrum and does not
average the spectral characteristics of the whole
data series. Therefore, in a statistical meaning,
nonstationary signals or signals with singularities
can be analyzed. We will not go into more detail
here since the analysis technique is already described
in detail in Bittner et al. (2000). Reference is also
made to Höppner (2003), and Wüst and Bittner
(2006), where the latter paper addresses the strength
and the limitations of the wavelet analysis from a
more mathematical point of view. It should be
mentioned that the wavelet analysis used requires
equidistant data. This was achieved using the
maximum entropy method (MEM) in its capacity
as a linear prediction filter (see Bittner et al, 1994 for
details). Since large data gaps cannot be tolerated by
this approach we restricted this analysis to the time
interval from July 1987 to December 2005.
As a typical example, Fig. 5 displays the wavelet
spectrogram for the OH* temperature fluctuations
in 1995 and 1996, respectively. The wavelet spectro-
gram clearly reveals the presence of pronounced
sinusoidals with periods in the regime of the well-
known atmospheric normal modes. Shown are only
those spectral features that are statistically signifi-
cant on a 95% confidence level. It should be noted
that the wavelet spectrograms are calculated for
each year individually. This is because the con-
fidence level we used is rather conservative as we
tried to avoid any artificial structures. The proce-
dure is to calculate an ensemble of normal
distributed random time series of temperature
fluctuations for each year which are based on the
individual standard deviation s for the respective
year. Wavelet spectrograms based on the random
data are generated; the spectral intensities derived
from here define our 95% confidence level. This
procedure guarantees that spectral signatures can be
detected even during years where s is much less
pronounced than during other years; results are
credible even if the individual standard deviations
might be biased due to the data reduction process.
Fig. 5 also demonstrates that the conditions may
significantly change from one year to another.
Normal modes of the atmosphere—say planetary
waves—are well-known to exhibit periods especially
within the 3–20-day regime. As a more focused
proxy of this wave activity we therefore define the
following index: The integrated statistically signifi-
cant spectral wavelet intensity per year over all
sinusoidals from 3 to 20 days can be taken as an
indicator or proxy for the atmosphere’s planetary
wave activity for each year individually. In order to
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438 K. Höppner, M. Bittner / Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 69 (2007) 431–448

Fig. 4. (a) Temporal evolution of the yearly mean standard deviation s of the night mean OH* temperature residuals from 1981 to 2005
(solid curve, left ordinate). The dotted curve indicates the yearly mean solar F10.7 cm flux (1 sfu1022W m2 Hz1) (right ordinate). (b)
Same as in (a). The dotted curve now marks the yearly mean solar polar magnetic field strength.
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
K. Höppner, M. Bittner / Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 69 (2007) 431–448 439

allow a direct intercomparison of one year to
another we take the fraction of the above-men-
tioned integrated statistically significant spectral
wavelet intensity over all sinusoidals from 3 to 20
days for each year in percent. For example, a
percentage of 20% for 1995 means that, for this
specific year, 20% of the wavelet intensities given in
the respective wavelet spectrogram is statistically
significant. The temporal evolution of this indicator
is shown in Fig. 6a (black curve). Note, that again
the curve clearly exhibits a longer term modulation
(indicated by the dashed black curve in Fig. 6a to
guide the eye) with systematically higher values
around 1994–1996 and lower values at the edges of
the x-axis, that is around 1987 and 2004, respec-
tively. Keeping in mind the limited length of the
time series, it is remarkable that the overall
structure is in phase with the 22-year solar Hale
cycle (also plotted in Fig. 6a as a blue curve; the
orange curve marks the solar F10.7 cm flux). Our

Fig. 5. (a) Wavelet spectrogram for the OH* temperature fluctuations for 1995. Shown are only those spectral features that are statistically
significant on a 95% confidence level. Spectral intensities are given in relative units. (b) Same as in (a), but for the year 1996.
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finding is supported through the work of Jarvis
(2006) who recently analyzed geomagnetic data
from five northern hemisphere observatories ex-
tending back over eight 11-year solar cycles. He
found an evidence for a 22-year solar modulation of
the quasi 5-day wave. He suggested a link between
the solar Hale cycle and the 5-day planetary wave
activity. Several alternative mechanisms proposed
by other works are summarized, mostly based on
the impact of geomagnetic variability on the
planetary waves in the thermosphere.
3.3. Quasi-2-year modulation
Superimposed on the black curve shown in
Fig. 6a—which we take as a proxy for planetary
wave activity—is a quasi two year oscillation. In
order to better uncover this structure, first order
differences (year (n)year (n+1)) were calculated
from our planetary wave proxy curve and are
displayed in Fig. 6b. Note, that the quasi-2-year
modulation of our planetary wave activity proxy is
well pronounced around 1994/95. The peak-to-peak
amplitude of this variation decreases towards about
1988 and 2004 (indicated by the dashed orange bars
in Fig. 6b to guide the eye), respectively. The
monthly mean zonal wind component at Singapore
(11N, 1041E)—the well-known equatorial QBO—at
20, 30, and 50 hPa, respectively, are compared to
our planetary wave activity proxy. Fig. 6c shows the
monthly mean zonal wind component above Singa-
pore at 30 hPa. Vertical propagation of planetary
waves strongly depends on the direction of the mean
stratospheric flow. The planetary wave activity in
the upper atmosphere is greater during winter
months since the mean stratospheric flow is westerly
and therefore allows vertically planetary waves
propagation. We therefore focus on the winter
months and compare the QBO to our planetary
wave activity proxy in this time interval. It is well
known that planetary wave activity is in the winter
months substantially stronger during a QBO east-
erly phase than during westerly phase (Holton and
Tan, 1980). If the equatorial mean zonal wind
reverses in the winter months from an easterly wind
to a westerly one the planetary wave activity mostly
decreases from one year to another (marked as a ‘D’
in Fig. 6b for the individual years). If the wind
direction turns from westerly to easterly planetary
wave activity is mostly strengthened (marked as a
‘S’). Years where the reversion of the wind direction
in the winter months is not conclusive are marked
with a ‘?’. Note that almost each damping in
planetary wave activity corresponds to a relative
maximum of our curve, and almost every strength-
ening to a relative minimum.
4. Discussion
4.1. Long-term trend of planetary wave activity in
relation to the general bipolar solar magnetic field
The existence of a long-term trend is obvious
from our analysis in the mesopause temperature
fluctuations. Fig. 4 clearly exhibits a pronounced
long-term modulation in the standard deviation s of
the temperature fluctuations which is in remarkable
agreement with the solar magnetic flux (Hale cycle).
The same holds for the temporal evolution of
the integrated wavelet spectral intensities taking
into account oscillations with periods from 3 to 20
days only—that is the range of the prominent
atmospheric ‘normal-modes’ (e.g. Pedlosky, 2003;
Dunkerton, 1991; Volland, 1988; Andrews et al.,
1987)—and which we therefore take as a suitable
proxy for planetary wave activity (see Fig. 6a).
These findings suggest that there might be a link
between the general bipolar solar magnetic flux
(Hale cycle) and the activity of planetary waves. We
tentatively propose the following physical mechan-
ism for such a relation:

Fig. 6. (a) Temporal evolution of the integrated statistically significant spectral wavelet intensity per year over all sinusoidals from 3 to 20
days (black curve); the dashed black curve shows the fit using the Harmonic analysis approach. The overall structure is in phase with the
22-year solar Hale cycle (blue curve). The orange curve marks the solar F10.7 cm flux. (b) First-order differences of the integrated
statistically significant spectral wavelet intensity per year over all sinusoidals from 3 to 20 days. The peak-to-peak amplitude of this
variation is well pronounced around 1994/1995 and decreases towards about 1988 and 2004, respectively; this superimposed long-term
modulation is indicated by the dashed orange bars to guide the eye. Planetary wave activity decreases from one year to another when the
mean zonal wind at Singapore (QBO) reverses in the winter months from an easterly wind to a westerly one (marked as a ‘D’ for Damping
of the planetary wave activity, for the individual years). If the wind direction turns from westerly to easterly planetary wave activity is
strengthened (marked as a ‘S’ for Strengthening of the planetary wave activity). Years where the reversion of the wind direction in the
winter months is not conclusive are marked with a ‘?’. (c) Monthly mean zonal wind components at Singapore (11N, 1041E) at 30 hPa.
Negative values are easterlies (from the east) and positive values are westerlies.
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
442 K. Höppner, M. Bittner / Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 69 (2007) 431–448
It is well known that the large-scale processes in
the atmosphere are described by the prognostic
equation (e.g. Andrews et al., 1987):
*   seems to be the electromagnetic coupling of angular
dv 1 * * momentum between the Earth’s core and the
¼  grad p  2 O  v , (1)
dt r Earth’s mantle. This coupling relies on the Lor-
where O denotes the Earth’s angular velocity, p is
the pressure, r is the density, and v means velocity.
This equation, which is a special case of the
Navier–Stokes formula, contains the planetary
waves as one solution. These result from the balance
of the pressure gradient force and the Coriolis
force. Therefore, if planetary wave activity is
coupled to the solar magnetic flux this coupling
should be linked via one or both of the above-
mentioned forces. We tentatively propose a cou-
pling mechanism via the Coriolis force. It becomes
clear from Eq. (1) that the Earth’s angular velocity
O ¼ 7.29  105 s strongly governs the magnitude of
the Coriolis force
* * * Regular measurements of the Earth’s rotation
f c   2ðO  v Þ.
A change of O should therefore directly have an
impact on the activity of planetary waves. The
question is, how O could be influenced by the solar
magnetic field?
Pole movement and the Earth’s rotation are
subject to regular monitoring for more than 100
years. In early years, astronomical methods were
used, today different approaches such as the very
long baseline interferometry (VLBI) using two or
more radio-telescopes observing simultaneously
extragalactic radiance, or space-based techniques
such as the global positioning system (GPS), to
mention just a few, are common. Detailed descrip-
tions about such techniques and aspects about their
data reduction can be found, for instance, in
Rothacher et al. (2001), Howind et al. (1999),
Armstrong et al. (1995) and references therein.
Today there is broad acceptance that the Earth’s
rotation is influenced through a multitude of
processes. Depending on the individual process
Earth’s rotation period can be modulated over a
wide temporal scale ranging from parts of a second
up to many decades. Such processes often originate
from couplings between ocean, atmosphere and the
solid Earth. Other prominent couplings rely on
interactions between the Earth’s core and the
Earth’s mantle. Such couplings are well known to
generate a transfer of angular momentum and thus
can impact the Earth’s angular velocity. An over-
view about such processes is given, for instance, by
Dehant et al. (1997) and Chao et al. (2000). Of
special importance within the context of this work
entz-force which, in turn, is based on electrical
currents and magnetic fields. Such electrical currents
are generated within conductive regions of the
Earth’s interior as a consequence of the terrestrial
dynamo effect. Since the internal terrestrial mag-
netic field is superimposed by the solar magnetic
field it seems to be plausible that modulations of the
total magnetic field in the Earth’s interior—induced
by the solar Hale cycle—should show up as a
modulation of the electromagnetic coupling of
angular momentum between the Earth’s core and
the Earth’s mantle. This means that finally the
Earth’s rotation period O should be modulated with
the solar magnetic flux, the quasi-22-year Hale
cycle.
(2)
velocity are conducted routinely since 1956 within
the frame of the International Earth Rotation and
Reference Systems Service (IERS). An indicator for
O is the length of day (LOD). Fig. 7a displays the
temporal evolution of the variations of the Earth’s
LOD (DLOD) from 1973 until 2005 (black dots).
Dominant structures are the annual and semi-
annual variation, respectively. Also, interannual
variations are reported in the literature to be
contained in the data and are attributed, at least
occasionally, to El Niño Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) events (e.g. Salstein and Rosen, 1994;
Dickey et al., 1992). Furthermore, even hints
towards QBO-related signals are found (Chao,
1989). Clearly visible in the raw data, however, is
a longer term modulation of the DLOD with a
period of around 20 years and amplitude of the
order of a few milliseconds. A MEM analysis
applied to the DLOD time series clearly reveals this
spectral component (see Fig. 8a).
To our knowledge, there is presently no con-
clusive explanation for this long-term variation in
the DLOD. Some model-based results are reported
in the literature where parameters characterizing the
transition zone between the Earth’s core and the
Earth’s mantle were varied within some reasonable
intervals: those approaches that are discussed as
most promising are dealing with a variable internal
geomagnetic activity in the Earth’s interior coupling
via rotational momentum to the Earth’s mantle
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
K. Höppner, M. Bittner / Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 69 (2007) 431–448 443

Fig. 7. (a) Time series of the variations of the Earth’s length of day (DLOD) from 1973 until 2005 (black dots). The blue curve marks the
22-year solar Hale cycle. The red diamonds indicate the yearly mean standard deviation s of the night mean OH* temperature residuals
from 1981 to 2005; the red curve shows a fit of s using the Harmonic analysis approach to guide the eye. (b) Same as in (a). The red
diamonds now indicate the integrated statistically significant spectral wavelet intensity per year over all sinusoidals from 3 to 20 days; the
red curve marks the fit using the Harmonic analysis to guide the eye.

(Holme, 1998; Jault et al., 1988). As mentioned
above, we propose the general bipolar solar
magnetic field (Hale cycle) to participate in the
modulation of the Earth’s inner geomagnetic field.
The development of the solar magnetic field is
plotted in Fig. 7a and b (blue curve) and shows a
remarkable similarity with the time series of DLOD.
As stated afore, such a modulation should influence
the development of planetary waves (see Eq. (2)). In
fact, the temporal evolution of the standard
deviation of our OH* temperature fluctuations
(which we take as a measure for planetary wave
activity) (red curve in Fig. 7a) fits quite reasonable
to the time series of DLOD (black dots) and to the
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
444 K. Höppner, M. Bittner / Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 69 (2007) 431–448

Hale cycle (blue curve). The same holds for the

temporal development of the integrated statistically
significant spectral wavelet intensities (see Fig. 7b).
Figs. 8a–c show the Maximum Entropy power
spectrum of the time series of the DLOD, the Hale
cycle, and the standard deviation s of the OH*
temperature fluctuations, respectively. MEM can-
not resolve wavelengths locally but it overcomes the
assumptions of a fast Fourier transform (FFT),
namely that the data are zero or periodic outside the
known interval when using the Burg algorithm. It is
more applicable to relatively short data series than
conservative methods and provides a better resolu-
tion (Wüst and Bittner, 2006). All spectra reveal a
strong component around 18.9, 18.5, and 18.9
years, respectively.
The obvious similarity between the time series of
the DLOD, the solar Hale cycle and the planetary
wave activity derived from our OH* data support
the idea that there may exist a relation between the
solar magnetic field and the planetary wave activity.
However, facing the fact that DLOD is rather small
(in the order of only milliseconds) poses the
question whether this could really cause a significant
effect on atmospheric dynamics. It should be noted
in this context that the mesopause region might be
more sensitive to such phenomena than the lower
parts of the atmosphere: Schoeberl and Geller
(1976) showed an increase of planetary wave
amplitude in the geopotential height of more than
one order of magnitude between about 20 and
90 km altitude. In order to further investigate this
speculation, suitable numerical simulations varying
the Coriolis parameter in a climate model is
planned. Furthermore, similar analysis will be
conducted using data from lower parts in the
atmosphere. This is currently under preparation
but beyond the scope of this paper.

4.2. Quasi-2-year oscillation

There is substantial evidence in our data that the

dynamics of the mesopause region is influenced
by a quasi-2-year oscillation. Fig. 6a and b clearly

Fig. 8. (a) Maximum entropy power spectrum of the variations

of the Earth’s length of day (DLOD). A spectral component of
about 19 years is found. (b) Maximum entropy power spectrum
of the 22-year solar Hale cycle. A spectral component of about 19
years is found. (c) Maximum entropy power spectrum of
the standard deviations of the OH* temperature fluctuations.
A spectral component of about 19 years is found.
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
K. Höppner, M. Bittner / Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 69 (2007) 431–448
indicate that the temporal evolution of the mean
wavelet intensity of sinusoidal fluctuations within
3–20 days is modulated by an oscillation with about
2 years period. This finding is consistent with our
earlier results (Bittner et al., 2000), where the
existence of a quasi-2-year oscillation in the
modulation of the amplitude of oscillations with
periods within the typical range of planetary waves
was shown using even daily data. We therefore
attribute this modulation of planetary wave activity
to the equatorial QBO. Although the QBO is a
peculiar oscillation mainly in the zonal winds and
temperature in the tropical stratosphere, many
examples have been found that the QBO influences
even higher latitude processes (e.g. Randel et al.,
1998; Jacobi et al., 1997; Holton and Tan, 1980). In
fact, we take this as a further hint that the
extratropical circulation is driven by the QBO
through the modulation of the planetary wave flux
as is also stated by previous work (see for example,
Ruzmaikin et al., 2005, and references therein). It
seems from Fig. 6a and b that the modulation is
strongly pronounced around 1993–1996. This is the
time interval where the Hale cycle has its maximum
and where planetary wave activity is high. When
planetary wave activity is pronounced a QBO-
induced modulation of planetary waves should
therefore lead to relatively large signatures. We
therefore take the temporal development of the
strength of the quasi-2-year modulation in our index
curve—maximum around Hale maximum and
minimum around Hale minimum—as a further hint
to strengthen our hypothesis that the general solar
magnetic field impacts the strength of planetary
wave activity.
5. Summary
Nocturnal temperatures of the mesopause region
have been gathered over Wuppertal, Germany
(511N, 71E) from 1980 to 2005; a time series of
4628 night mean OH rotational temperatures
derived from the OH* (3,1) emission has been
recorded.
A comprehensive spectral analysis procedure
based on harmonic analysis, maximum entropy
method (MEM), and the wavelet transform making
use of a conservative Monte Carlo method estab-
lishing a reliable statistical confidence level was
applied to analyze the data in terms of temperature
fluctuations after taking out seasonal variability.
We derived standard deviations of the yearly mean
445
OH* temperature fluctuations between about 4.0
and 7.0 K. As a good proxy for planetary wave
activity we defined a number representing the mean
wavelet spectral intensity for the period interval
from 3 to 20 days and for each year individually to
avoid any influence of a possible bias in the OH*
temperature fluctuations standard deviation. The
results are in line with our earlier work (Bittner
et al., 2000). However, due to the much broader
data base (additional 10 years of data) we now
realized that the planetary wave activity shows a
longer term modulation peaking around 1981 and
1997; minima are encountered around 1986 and
towards 2004, respectively. Thus, no conclusive
correlation with the solar F10.7 cm flux is found.
Reasonable agreement of planetary wave activity
with the general solar bipolar magnetic field (22-
year Hale cycle) is found instead. An explanation
for the coupling of the solar Hale cycle with
planetary wave activity is tentatively proposed. It
is assumed that the internal terrestrial magnetic field
is superimposed by the solar magnetic field causing
modulations of the total magnetic field in the
Earth’s interior which leads to a modulation of
the electromagnetic coupling of angular momentum
between the Earth’s core and the Earth’s mantle. As
a result the Earth’s rotation period O—and thus the
activity of planetary waves—should be modulated
with the solar magnetic flux, the quasi-22-year Hale
cycle. A comparison of the temperature variations
to the variations of the length of the day (DLOD)
yields remarkable agreement.
Planetary wave activity is further found to be
modulated by a quasi-2-year oscillation. The
modulation is strongest around 1994/1995—that is
around the Hale cycle maximum, when planetary
wave activity appears to be most pronounced—and
lowest around 1988 and 2004, respectively. It is
found that wave activity is mostly enhanced when
the wind direction of the mean zonal wind of the
equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) reverses
from westerly to easterly. We take this as a strong
hint that the extratropical circulation is driven by
the QBO-induced modulation of the planetary wave
flux.
Acknowledgement
We thank Prof. Dirk Offermann, University of
Wuppertal, for the provision of the OH* tempera-
ture data and we are grateful to all staff of the
Wuppertal atmospheric science team who operated
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
446 K. Höppner, M. Bittner / Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 69 (2007) 431–448
the OH* instruments 365 days per year for a long
time. Solar F10.7 cm flux data, data of the solar
magnetic field, of the QBO and of the DLOD were
obtained from the National Geophysical Data
Center (NGDC), the Wilcox Solar Observatory,
the Free University Berlin and the International
Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service
(IERS), respectively.
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