Introduction

I was always fascinated by epidemiology and the study of epidemics and infectious diseases.
I plan to pursue a career in Medicine or Medical Genetics due to my love for Science,
immunology, and Pathology. Thus the SIR model in relation to world epidemics mesmerizes
me. The beauty of this model is that it deals with many complex factors such as the number
of remaining people infected after a certain number recover or die from the disease. I first
came across the SIR model (acronym for Susceptible (S), infected (I) and Removed (R).)
whilst I was doing research on Ebola for my biology homework. I quickly skimmed over the
model and released how efficient it really was. In this investigation my aim is to highlight the
importance of the SIR model and to apply it to one real life epidemics one that occurred
recently and one that occurred in the past.

The SIR model

Background

One of the simplest versions of the SIR model was derived by 2 Scottish Scientists.
A.G. Kendrick and W.O Kermack. It was published in 3 separate articles in the years 1927,
1932, and 1933. 1 The SIR model is “an epidemiological model that computes the theoretical
number of people infected with a contagious illness in a closed population over time.” 2 The
model also highlights the possibility of recovery and immunity to the infection by the disease
contracted patients in the future.

Variables

The independent variable is the time

The dependent variables takes into account the number of people in the following groups

S= S(t) is the number of susceptible individuals.

I= I(t) is the number of infected individuals

R= R(t) is the number of recovered individuals

1
Lopez, Julianna. “Brief History Behind the SIR Model.” Prezi.com, 3 May 2015, prezi.com/0-zprzsgwnh3/brief-
history-behind-the-sir-model/.

2
“SIR Model.” From Wolfram MathWorld, mathworld.wolfram.com/SIRModel.html.
The second set of variables I will be using in this investigation represents the fraction of the
total population within the three groups stated above. 3 (N) is the symbol I used to denote
(total population) and t represents the time in days.

𝑺(𝒕)
S(t)= the susceptible fraction of the population
𝑵

𝑰 (𝒕)
I(t)= the infected fraction of the population
𝑵

𝑹 (𝒕)
R(t)= the recovered fraction of population
𝑵

It is safe to assume there is a fixed population of N people so there are no births and deaths by
natural causes. So the number of people fall under 3 categories: susceptible, infected and
recovered.

𝑁 = 𝑆 + 𝐼 + 𝑅4

The SIR model represents the flow of people between the three states: susceptible (S),
infected (I) and resistant (R)5. The SIR model uses two parameters β and γ6.

β is “the parameter indicating infection rate”7 there is a formula to calculate β which is

mortality rate (M) divided by the number of people susceptible (S) to the disease. The reason
being is that infection rate depends on the mortality of an individual and a person has to be
susceptible to the infection thus

𝑀
𝛽= .
𝑆

3
Smith, David, and Lang Moore. "The SIR Model for Spread of Disease - The Differential Equation Model." The
SIR Model for Spread of Disease - The Differential Equation Model | Mathematical Association of America. N.p.,
n.d. Web. 28 Feb. 2018.
4
Dolgoarshinnykh, Regina, Columbia University, Steven P. Lalley, and University Of Chicag. "Epidemic
Modeling: SIRS Models." Epidemic Modeling: SIRS Models
http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~regina/research/harvard.pdf
5
Nesse, Hans. "Hans Nesse- Global Health - SIR Model." SIR Model. N.p., n.d. Web. 28 Feb. 2018.
6
Nesse, Hans. "Hans Nesse- Global Health - SIR Model." SIR Model. N.p., n.d. Web. 28 Feb. 2018.
7
Nesse, Hans. "Hans Nesse- Global Health - SIR Model." SIR Model. N.p., n.d. Web. 28 Feb. 2018.
γ is the parameter control the recovery rate”8 and it can be calculated by finding the
reciprocal of the number of the days an individual had the disease (D). For example if an
1
individual had the disease for 15 days then the rate of infection would thus
15

1
𝛾= .
𝐷

Notion regarding SIR model

- It is important to note that no one is added to the susceptible group. This is due to the
fact that birth and immigration are ignored. The only way an individual can vacate
from one group for example the susceptible group is by joining another group i.e. the
individual becomes infected.
- It is important to allude that the SIR model takes into account the population size are
homogenously mixing meaning that the individuals of the population make contact at
random.

Rate Equations
Each of the dependent variables S(t), I(t) and R(t) have differential equations.

There are 3 differential equations.

𝒅𝑺
The Susceptibility Equation 𝒅𝒕

𝑑𝑆
= − 𝛽𝐼𝑆9
𝑑𝑡

𝑑𝑆
In the equation is the rate of change of the number of susceptible people to the disease
𝑑𝑡
𝑑𝑆
over the time the disease was contracted. To calculate you multiply the parameter β (the
𝑑𝑡

rate of infection) by the number of individuals susceptible and the number of those infected
(I). There is a negative sign present in the equation because the number of people susceptible
𝑑𝑆
decreases proportionally to 𝑑𝑡 because once a person become infected they are no longer a

part of the susceptible group

8
Smith, David, and Lang Moore. "The SIR Model for Spread of Disease - The Differential Equation Model." The
SIR Model for Spread of Disease - The Differential Equation Model | Mathematical Association of America. N.p.,
n.d. Web. 28 Feb. 2018.
9
"Modelling Infectious Diseases." IB Maths Resources from British International School Phuket. N.p., 17 May
2014. Web. 28 Feb . 2018.
 𝒅𝑹
The Recovered Equation 𝒅𝒕

𝑑𝑅
= 𝛾𝐼10
𝑑𝑡

𝑑𝑅
In the equation is the rate of change of the number of people that recovered over time. To
𝑑𝑡

calculate this you need to multiply the parameter γ (the recovery rate) by the number of
people infected I. Note at how the recovery rate is dependent on the number of people
infected this is purely due to the fact that for a person to recover from a disease they need to
have been infected at one point.

𝒅𝑰
The Infected Equation 𝒅𝒕

𝑑𝐼
= 𝛽𝐼𝑆11 − 𝛾𝐼12
𝑑𝑡

𝑑𝐼 𝑑𝐼
In the equation 𝑑𝑡 is the rate of change of the number of people infected over time. 𝑑𝑡 is
𝑑𝐼
entirely dependent on the number of people infected and susceptible. The equation 𝑑𝑡 was
𝑑𝑆 𝑑𝐼 𝑑𝑅
derived using the notion that + + = 0 since SIR is a closed system thus you can
𝑑𝑡 𝑑𝑡 𝑑𝑡
𝑑𝐼 𝑑𝐼 𝑑𝑆 𝑑𝑅
rearrange the formula to make 𝑑𝑡 the subject so 𝑑𝑡 = − 𝑑𝑡 − and to obtain the final formula
𝑑𝑡

above you substitute the first and second equation.

10
"Modelling Infectious Diseases." IB Maths Resources from British International School Phuket. N.p., 17 May
2014. Web. 28 Feb. 2018.
11
"Modelling Infectious Diseases." IB Maths Resources from British International School Phuket. N.p., 17 May
2014. Web. 28 Feb . 2018.
12
"Modelling Infectious Diseases." IB Maths Resources from British International School Phuket. N.p., 17 May
2014. Web. 28 Feb. 2018.
SIR model for Influenza A H1N1 in Kolkata India 2010

H1N1 is a strain of the influenza virus known as “swine flu”. In 2009 this strain of virus
spread rapidly around the globe and was declared a pandemic by the WHO.13 There was
massive There was an outbreak of the pandemic in Kolkata in 2010 and I will be modelling
the disease using the parameters and the values below.

The total population of Kolkata in 2010 was estimated to be 4.5million thus N is 4,500,000.14
The number of people infected was 44015 and the number of people dead is 4 and 129 people
recovered.16 (This data is recorded by Bengal General hospital)

So

N= 4,500,000

I=440

R=129

Therefore, S= N-I+5= 4,500,000-(440+129)= 4499431.

The mortality rate was 0.917 from this value we can calculate the rate of infection (β)

13
"H1N1 Flu Virus (Swine Flu)." WebMD. WebMD, n.d. Web. 11 Mar. 2018.
14
15
16
17