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New Democracies, Constitutional Engineering, and the Bolivian Model
by
Miguel Centellas
Department of Political Science
3303 Friedmann Hall
Western Michigan University
Kalamazoo, MI 49008
miguel.centellas@wmich.edu
This paper analyzes the Bolivian model of executivelegislative relations within the
context of formal and informal institutions. Since its transition to democracy, the
Bolivian executive has been selected by the legislature, moving the officially presidential
system closer to a parliamentary model. Reinforced by the electoral and party systems,
the model is significantly different from the “hybrid presidential” model (which has
separate heads of state and government) and contains its own internal logic. A better
understanding of this institutional arrangement and its consequences for democratic
consolidation sheds light not only on the role of institutional design in new democracies,
but also calls into question some of the assumptions drawn from the traditional
dichotomy between presidential and parliamentary systems.
Prepared for delivery at the 59th Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science
Association, Chicago, 1922 April 2001. I thank Emily Hauptmann and Liesl Haas for
their comments and advice.
2
Parliamentarized Presidentialism
Introduction
The third wave of democracy coincided with renewed interest in studies of
political institutions and institutional design. Since then, “constitutional engineering”
has become a buzzword that aptly describes much of the literature. This literature
focuses primarily on the structure of electoral and party systems and executive
legislative relationships. It is clear, of course, that formal institutions matter and have
profound consequences for the quality and stability of democracies. What is unclear,
however, is how new democracies —democracies with little or no experience with
democracy— learn to use their newly engineered political institutions. Even the most
perfect constitution needs a citizenry and a political élite willing and able to make
democracy work. Even the most perfect constitutional design may falter and fail if it is
too complicated for citizens to understand or if competing politicians are not able to
play well with others.
Countries with little or no democratic experience face great hardships as they
struggle to consolidate democracy. They must hold elections under untried electoral
systems and with slowly emerging party systems. Not only do such countries face
political obstacles; they also face serious socioeconomic problems. They must produce
governments that are both democratically competitive and yet strong enough to
manage crises swiftly and efficiently. These are daunting tasks, indeed.
Still, some form of constitution must be adopted. In some cases, the constitution
may be an already existing document that was drafted but never implemented. In other
cases, the constitution may be produced from scratch. In either case, the situations are
similar. Citizens will have little idea of how the formal rules work. They will not know
who to vote for if nascent party systems are highly fragmented or still evolving out of
civil society. For their part, political élites will have little practical understanding of
democratic politics and may not know how to implement democratic institutions and
make them work. If parties have little or no roots in civil society, how do they
campaign? If civilians have never governed before, how do they develop policies and
(more difficult still) learn to control the bureaucracies?
In the end, citizens and political élites in new democracies must learn democracy
—and learning requires time. Yet the great need for effective crisis management in poor,
underdeveloped countries means that time is a precious commodity. Neither citizens
nor political élites may be willing to wait long enough for democracy to work.
Subsequently, new democracies need simple political institutions with steep but
manageable learning curves that allow their new democratic governments to work
quickly to solve daunting problems even as they strive to institutionalize the
institutions themselves. For this, the lessons of older democracies and countries
3
returning to democracy after a hiatus may not apply. The study of formal institutions in
modern representative democracy (such as relationships between electoral and party
systems) derived from these countries is still instructive; but we must remember that
the constitutional designs best suited to new democracies may be different.
For constitutional engineers seeking to understand how new democracies
achieve consolidation, the lessons of successful new democracies are more instructive.
Such examples may serve not only to provide frameworks for constitutional
engineering in similar situations, they may also help élites in other new democracies
speed up their learning curves from the hard lessons learned elsewhere. And so, we
turn to one such example, Bolivia. While many scholars point to Bolivia as a “special
case” (Linz 1990b; Linz 1994; Sartori 1994; Jones 1995), it has received very little
attention in the academic literature. In part, this paper is an effort to explore the
implications of the Bolivian case only hinted at by previous authors. A study of the
Bolivian case accomplishes two different, but related goals. First, evidence from Bolivia
highlights the importance of simple institutions that balance the need for flexibility and
stability. Second, learning from the successes (and failures) of Bolivia’s democratization
may provide a model for future democratizers —especially in regions such as Africa or
the former Soviet Union, which have both little or no history of democracy and weak
political institutions.
Much of the institutionalist literature on democracy distinguishes between
presidential and parliamentary forms of government (e.g. Linz and Valenzuela 1994;
Jones 1995; Mainwaring and Shugart 1997b; von Mettenheim 1997). Although some
authors (e.g. Shugart and Carey 1992; Jones 1995) point out that presidential
democracies are significantly varied, both critics and defenders of presidentialism have
employed the categories “presidentialism” and “parliamentarism” and agree on the
two systems’ key distinctions. In presidential systems, the executive is chosen by direct
popular election for a fixed term and is independent of legislative confidence; in
parliamentary systems, the executive is chosen by the legislature and depends on
legislative confidence. Since most new democracies are adopting presidential systems,
the focus of most authors has been to improve or “renovate” presidentialism via
constitutional engineering (e.g. Shugart and Carey 1992; Nohlen and Fernández 1998;
Jones 1995).
Lessons from the Bolivian case are instructive here as well. The Bolivian system
does not fit easily within any of the typological categories currently used. Although
nominally a presidential system, Bolivia’s electoral system uses a single fused ballot
that combines legislative and executive elections into a single vote choice for voters.
Similarly, although a simple majority can directly vote the president into office, when
no simple majority exists the Bolivian executive is selected by the legislature.
Multipartism, reinforced by use of proportional representation, has ensured that, since
1982, every Bolivian president has been chosen by the legislature after intense coalition
building negotiations. These “parliamentary” features make the Bolivian system a
unique hybrid referred to by René Antonio Mayorga (1997) as “parliamentarized
4
presidentialism.”1 Further, several authors credit Bolivia’s unique political system for
democratic stability under very difficult conditions (e.g. Mayorga 1996; Shugart and
Carey 1992; Gamarra 1997b, Valenzuela 1993).
This study of the Bolivian model emphasizes two important points. First, the use
of a fused ballot is the key variable in Bolivia’s political system. This subtle difference
distinguishes parliamentarized presidentialism from other “hybrid” or “mixed”
systems. Bolivia’s system is thus parliamentarized, unlike 193273 Chile (which also
allowed the legislature to elect a president in the absence of a majority). Bolivia’s system
is still more presidential than post1996 Israel (in which prime ministers are elected by
direct popular election).2 That a subtle difference, such as ballot structure, can have
profound consequences for the political system implies that constitutional engineers
may achieve substantive system changes with only minor institutional changes. Second,
Bolivia’s system functions to a large degree on the basis of informal coalitionbuilding
rules. Political élites developed a set of informal rules that have, since 1985, produced
stable ruling coalitions.
Evidence from the Bolivian case is extremely relevant for new democracies.
Bolivia demonstrates that a presidential system can be modified to limit some of the
problems typically associated with presidentialism —such as dual legitimacy and
rigidity—while avoiding the political instability that might follow a more dramatic
switch to “pure” parliamentarism. These considerations make the study of Bolivia’s
unique system extremely valuable. The inclusion of parliamentarized presidentialism
into our current typology of democratic systems both enriches our understanding of
(formal and informal) political institutions and provides constitutional engineers with
more options. After nearly twenty years in operation, the Bolivian model may now be
mature enough to serve as a model for other new democracies —especially those
seeking to modify their presidential constitutions and avoid the “perils” of
presidentialism.
Juan Linz and Presidentialism
1 Eduardo Gamarra uses the term “hybrid presidentialism” to describe Bolivia’s political system
(Gamarra 1997a; Gamarra 1997b; Gamarra 1996). Matthew Shugart and John Carey use the term
“assemblyindependent” (Shugart and Carey 1992, 26, 7885). The term “parliamentarized
presidentialism,” however, more clearly describes the system than does “assemblyindependent” and
distinguishes it from other dissimilar “hybrid” systems. Hence, I adopt the term coined by Juan Linz
(Linz 1994, 8586 n91) as used by René Antonio Mayorga.
2 Chile’s system was not fully “parliamentarized” since it did held separate elections for the
executive and the legislature. The ability of the legislature to elect a president did not eliminate the
problem of dual legitimacy and did not offer strong coalitionbuilding incentives. Israel’s parliamentary
system is also not fully “presidentialized” despite the separate election of the executive. The Israeli
prime minister is still subject to a vote of confidence. Bolivia’s system is substantially different from
both of these, as subsequent sections of the paper will illustrate.
5
The recent debate over the merits of presidential democracy was sparked by Juan
Linz’s essay “Presidential or Parliamentary Democracy: Does It Make a Difference?”
which was circulating in manuscript form as early as 1985. The basis of Linz’s argument
was the observation that presidential democracy had a high rate of “failure” or
breakdowns of democracy. Along with this came the parallel observation that most
longstanding democracies were parliamentary, not presidential (with the notable
exception of the United States). Although the argument appears on the surface to be a
condemnation of presidentialism tout court in favor of parliamentarism, Linz is careful
to point out that he “[does] not argue that any parliamentary system is ipso facto more
likely to ensure democratic stability than any presidential system” (1990b, 84).
Linz’s argument is based on a dichotomous contrasting of presidentialism and
parliamentarism, especially with regards to their correlation with stability and
consolidation. This leads him to subsequently develop two idealtype systems that he
then evaluates. Several scholars (e.g. Valenzuela 1993; Fabbrini 1995; Stepan and Skach
1993) joined Linz in condemning presidentialism. Other scholars (e.g. Horowitz 1990;
Mainwaring and Shugart 1997b; Shugart and Carey 1992) have criticized Linz for
oversimplifying the dichotomy between presidentialism and parliamentarism and for
exaggerating the dangers of presidentialism while too readily dismissing problems with
parliamentarism. Some of Linz’s critics point out that differences among presidential
systems are significant and that other variables —especially electoral systems— have
dramatic consequences for the way presidential democracies operate (e.g. Jones 1995;
Nohlen and Fernández 1998).
Essentially, Linz argues that the historically poor performance of presidentialism
as a regime type —the observation that most longstanding democracies are not
presidential— is based on the central characteristics of presidentialism itself. He defines
a presidential system as one in which “an executive with considerable constitutional
powers … is elected by the people for a fixed term and is independent of parliamentary
votes of confidence” (1990a, 52). Elsewhere, Linz characterizes presidentialism by its
two most prominent features: (a) “dual legitimacy” and (b) “[temporal] rigidity” (1994,
6). Presidentialism is marked by dual legitimacy because both the executive and the
legislature are elected independently, giving each a claim to direct democratic
legitimacy. Presidentialism is also marked by rigidity because terms of office are set for
a specific length of time, during which the executive cannot dissolve the legislature and
the legislature cannot easily remove the executive. Linz argues that these two
distinguishing characteristics of presidentialism are weaknesses by themselves and lead
to other structural problems that make democratic stability and consolidation more
difficult. Although democratic stability and democratic consolidation are not
synonymous, it is clear that stability —the durability of democratic norms such as
elections, among other things— is a necessary condition for consolidation.
First, the direct election of the executive and the separate election of the
legislature gives each a competing claim to legitimacy. Since each is popularly elected,
“no democratic principle can decide who represents the will of the people” (Linz 1994,
6
7). Linz further argues that the singleperson nature of the presidential office makes
presidents more likely to see themselves as representing the nationatlarge, while
viewing the legislature as representing “special” or “parochial” interests. Presidents are
more willing to challenge legislatures and use decree powers using their popular
“mandate” as political leverage. Thus, presidentialism is based on executivelegislative
conflict, which is very dangerous for new democracies. This conflict “systematically
contributes to impasses and democratic breakdowns” (Stepan and Skach 1993, 19). A
crucial danger is that, in countries that desperately need effective governments, the
military may decide to act as “poder moderador” (Linz 1994, 7). Another danger,
however, is that presidents rely on their decree powers to brush aside legislative
opposition, producing what Guillermo O’Donnell (1994) termed “delegative
democracy.” In contrast, parliamentarism has only one source of legitimacy since “the
only legitimate institution is parliament … [and] the government’s authority is
completely dependent upon parliamentary confidence” (Linz 1990a, 52).
Second, the fixed terms of office of both the executive and the legislature,
coupled with their mutual independence from each other, introduces the problem of
temporal rigidity. This “breaks the political process into discontinuous, rigidly
demarcated periods, leaving no room for the continuous readjustments that events may
demand” (Linz 1990a, 54). Linz further argues that this lack of flexibility is especially
problematic during periods of transition to democracy and consolidation (1994, 9).
Presidentialism is “rigid” because it does not allow for early elections when new
governments are needed or demanded. What is more, most presidential systems have
proscriptions again presidential reelection. Governments that are popular and effective
cannot constitutionally extend their mandates; voters are forced to choose new
leadership. In contrast, parliamentary regimes can more easily replace ineffective
governments without producing a political crisis and they can extend the mandates of
effective governments.
Third, Linz argues that the divided nature of power in presidential systems and
the lack of reelection make both accountability and identifiability more difficult.
Identifiability, the ability for voters to predict what cabinets will look like, is limited
since presidents are free to select their cabinets, making it difficult for voters to make a
priori calculations about government teams. Accountability suffers because “there is no
way to hold accountable a president who cannot be presented for reelection” (Linz 1994,
12). Accountability also suffers because presidentialism encourages executives and
legislatures to play the “blame game” (Linz 1990b, 89). Presidents are also not
accountable to their own parties or the legislature, since there is no vote of confidence
(Linz 1994, 1314). In contrast, parliamentary systems provide greater degrees of
identifiability since voters can often recognize potential government “teams.”
Accountability is reinforced both by making executives subject to a vote of confidence
and greater cooperation between executives and legislatures —they rise or fall together.
Fourth, presidentialism has majoritarian and “winnertakeall” tendencies. By its
very nature, the office of the president is a oneperson office, which “raises the stakes in
7
presidential election … and inevitably increases the tensions and the polarization” (Linz
1994, 19). Subsequently, the oneperson office of chief executive reduces presidential
politics to a “zerosum game” and encourages winners to exaggerate their mandates.
This majoritarian tendency produces a lessthandemocratic “style” of politics marked
by few cooperative strategies and authoritarian presidents. In contrast, parliamentary
systems rely on collegial cabinets and encourage more “consociational” democracies
(Lijphart 1999; Linz 1994).
Fifth, presidentialism is marked by an increase personalization of politics and the
increased probability that political “outsiders” will win office. In delegative democracy,
presidential elections tend to become highly personalized affairs divorced from party
programs or identities. This is especially problematic for new democracies, where party
identities and policy platforms are still not fully formed, making voters more
susceptible to populistic appeals. The logic of the oneperson office of president also
encourages candidates to campaign independently of political parties and to present
themselves as “above politics.” Presidents come to power with very little support from
their own party or without a political party to speak of. Presidents who win election on
the basis of their own individual charisma are less willing to deal with political
“insiders” and more prone to see themselves as messianic, national saviors. The
consequence is delegative democracy. In contrast, parliamentarism is less personalized
and relies on strong party discipline and identity.
Linz’s argument consists of two distinct parts: (a) the negative evaluation of
presidentialism as a regime type and (b) the positive evaluation —and subsequent
recommendation— of parliamentarism as likely to lead to democratic consolidation in
new democracies. Both arguments have been criticized. Most of the criticism has been
against Linz’s condemnation of presidentialism (e.g. Horowitz 1990; Jones 1995;
Mainwaring and Shugart 1997a). Although often accepting many of Linz’s criticisms of
presidentialism, several scholars criticized Linz’s argument that presidentialism is
necessarily inimical to democratic consolidation. They point out that presidential
systems are quite varied, that different combinations of formal and informal rules
radically alter the prospects for democratic consolidation, and that presidentialism (qua
idealtype) should not be blamed for democratic failures. In short, the bulk of the
criticism is simply that Linz relies on an idealtype of presidentialism and does not
adequately differentiate between different types of presidential systems. Critics also
point out to weaknesses in parliamentarism that make the system problematic for new
democracies. Such scholars do not promote parliamentarism, but rather other
institutional solutions, such as changing electoral laws, to “renovate” presidentialism
(e.g. Jones 1995; Nohlen and Fernández 1998). Finally, even some scholars who agree
with Linz’s condemnation of presidentialism are hesitant to recommend that new
democracies adopt parliamentarism (e.g. Sartori 1997; Sartori 1994; Lijphart 1999).
The Perils of Presidentialism?
8
Although many of the defenses of presidentialism have been halfhearted, some
scholars have pointed to advantages presidential democracy has over parliamentarism
(e.g. Mainwaring and Shugart 1997a; von Mettenheim 1997). Most, however, accept
many of Linz’s criticisms of presidentialism and recognize that idealtype or “pure”
presidentialism should be blunted by other measures. Still, some scholars have focused
on the methodological weakness of Linz’s argument against presidentialism (e.g.
Horowitz 1990; Nohlen 1998b). Other scholars have called attention to other important
variables —mostly electoral laws and the executive’s legislative powers— that influence
presidentialism’s democratic character and performance (e.g. Jones 1995; Nohlen and
Fernández 1998; Shugart and Carey 1992; Cox and Morgenstern 2001).
Some of the sharpest criticisms of Linz’s argument are methodological. Donald
Horowitz (1990) and Scott Mainwaring and Matthew Shugart (1997a) point out that
much of the antipresidential literature is prone to selection bias. Presidentialism has
been most common in regions with little history of democracy, poorly institutionalized
political party systems, and low levels of socioeconomic development. In contrast,
parliamentarism has been most common in Europe, with its longer experience with and
slow evolution towards democracy, more institutionalized party systems, and (perhaps
most importantly) higher levels of socioeconomic development. In short, the
breakdown of democracies in developing countries could be accounted for by any of
several variables other than presidentialism. The presidential systems that broke down
shared too many other features in common. Horowitz also points out that the history of
parliamentarism has also been spotted in Europe. Both the Weimar and the prewar
Italian parliamentary democracies collapsed. Democracy in both countries was restored
only after their fascist governments were defeated and the Western Allies imposed new
democratic constitutions. They also criticize Linz for failing to account for the failures of
parliamentarism before the Second World War (in Europe) and after (in the developing
world).
Dieter Nohlen (1998b) raises a parallel methodological criticism. He points out
that Linz’s argument rests on the use of “counterfactuals” that hypothesize what “might
have” happened and lead to a “methodologically weak argument, departing from the
belief that parliamentarism would have led to something different, [and] faults
presidentialism for what happened” (1998b, 88). Nohlen also points out that Linz does
not adequately deal with anomalous cases —such as Venezuela, Colombia, or Costa
Rica— in which presidential democracy survived the turbulent 1960s and 1970s. Nohlen
instead offers the hypothesis that the success of parliamentarism in Europe after the
Second World War —and of presidential democracy in Venezuela, Colombia, and Costa
Rica— was a result of “political learning.” The collapse of democracy and the rise of
fascism in interwar Europe taught political élites and voters important lessons about
the dangers of parliamentary politics. Subsequently, both élites and voters (but
especially élites) overcame the shortcomings of their political system by adopting
consociational strategies. Similarly, Nohlen looks at the recent history of Latin America
9
and the widespread survival of presidential democracy with optimism and suggests
that presidential democracies are also able to provide venues for “political learning.”
Other scholars argue that Linz unfairly misrepresented presidentialism by
focusing on the American “prototype.” Gary Cox and Scott Morgenstern (2001) argue
that Linz’s argument suffers from the use of idealtypes and does not distinguish
between the variety of subtypes of presidentialism currently in practice. Differences
between presidential systems are significant and make discussion of any “idealtype” of
presidentialism problematic since claims developed from one type are not
generalizeable to the category as a whole. Matthew Shugart and John Carey (1992) call
for the development of more careful typologies of presidential systems. They
demonstrate that most presidential systems bear little resemblance to the American
version from which Linz bases much of his criticism. Working from these more
differentiated typologies, subsequent works such as those by Mark Jones (1995),
Mainwaring and Shugart (1997b), and Carey and Shugart (1998) demonstrate that some
forms of presidentialism may be less problematic than others.
Most scholars, however, agree with the main thrust of Linz’s criticisms of
presidentialism —especially the issues of dual legitimacy and rigidity. Those who
criticize Linz, however, argue that the problems produced by dual legitimacy and
rigidity are not necessary consquences. Rather, they depend on other factors such as
electoral systems, party systems, and the mix of legislative and executive powers. The
problems of dual legitimacy and rigidity are most acute when governments are headed
by presidents without legislative majorities or nearmajorities. Under such
circumstances, democracy suffers from lack of effective governance. The outcomes may
be diverse. Some states may “muddle through,” as Ecuador has done for the last two
decades (Isaacs 1996; Barczak 1997). Other states, however, may develop more
authoritarian tendencies, or “democradura,” such as Peru under Alberto Fujimori. Still,
the probabilities of divided government and ineffective governance can be blunted
through institutional reforms.
Jones (1995) demonstrates that electoral systems have a significant effect on
producing executives with legislative majorities or nearmajorities. Rather than radical
reforms to “parliamentarize” Latin American democracies, Jones recommends electoral
systems designed to encourage moderated multipartism. Such measures include
plurality elections for the president (rather than secondround runoff formulas),
mediumsized multimember districts with proportional representation, and concurrent
legislative and presidential elections. Similarly, Shugart and Mainwaring argue that
“the nature of the party system, in particular the number of parties, makes a
fundamental difference in how presidential systems function” (1997, 394). The success
of presidential democracy depends in great part on the degree of party system
fragmentation and party discipline, just as parliamentary democracies rely on stable
and disciplined party systems. Shugart and Carey (1992) also argue that electoral
systems are a crucial factor in determining the success or failure of presidential
democracies. Like Dieter Nohlen (1998a), these scholars argue for smallerscale
10
institutional changes that would “renovate” presidentialism by adopting electoral
systems that help reduce polarized multipartism and produce legislative majorities.
Finally, several scholars have taken Linz to task for his claim that the “style” of
politics is significantly different (i.e. less “democratic”) in presidentialism than in
parliamentarism. Grace Ivana Deheza (1998) takes up Linz’s charge that presidentialism
encourages winnertakeall strategies. She points to evidence that South American
presidential democracies have significant consociational tendencies; in a study of nine
South American presidential systems, 56 percent of governments were coalition
governments (1998, 156). Deheza also discovered that coalition parties are awarded
significant shares of ministerial and cabinet posts in comparison to the president’s
party. She concludes that the ability of presidential systems to build stable and effective
coalitions depends more on “the institutional combinations, the party systems, the
relationships established by the parties forming the government” and that “the
formation of accords and coalition governments in multiparty systems reduce the
conflicts that can emerge among the parties, generating cooperative forms of
government” (1998, 169).
Other scholars have pointed out that presidentialism does not necessarily suffer
from “winnertakeall” politics, as Linz contends. One of the criticisms of
presidentialism is that its divided government often leads to governments that rule by
executive decree rather than through the legislature. There is evidence, on the contrary,
that presidential systems are no more prone to use executive decrees than are
parliamentary systems (e.g. Carey and Shugart 1998b; Shugart and Carey 1992; Cox and
Morgenstern 2001). Carey and Shugart (1998a) argue that decree powers should be
more carefully disaggregated and considered among their different dimensions —
especially differentiating between reactive and proactive decree powers. Carey and
Shugart (1998a) point out that presidential systems vary significantly on the different
types of decree and other “legislative” powers available to executives. Interestingly,
Della Sala and Krepel (1998) point out that in Italy —one of the signature parliamentary
systems— executives routinely use decree powers to enact legislation.
The Virtues of Parliamentarism?
11
the case in underdeveloped countries with little previous experience with democracy.
Horowitz also points out that only twentyfive years ago scholars advanced the
argument “that the inherited Westminster style of parliamentary democracy was
responsible for much of the authoritarianism then emerging in Englishspeaking
Africa” (1990, 74).
The criticisms that Horowitz raises still fundamentally agree with Linz’s primary
reasons to criticize presidentialism. Like nearly all participants in the institutionalist
debate, Horowitz agrees that democratic stability is desirable. Simply standing the test
of time is not a sufficient condition for democratic consolidation, but it is a necessary
condition. Without a repeated pattern of elections and the other “formalities” of
democracy, it is impossible to establish any deeper sense of democracy. Horowitz also
agree that it “is right to worry about winnertakeall outcomes and their exclusionary
consequences” (Horowitz 1990, 79). Extreme winnertakeall majoritarianism and zero
sum politics only hinder democratic consolidation. Critics point out that
parliamentarism itself is highly majoritarian; for example, Mainwaring and Shugart
(1997a) point out that parliamentary systems have a tendency towards powerful
executives who head legislative majorities. In such cases, “a disciplined majority party
leaves the executive virtually unconstrained between elections. Here, more than in any
presidential system, the winner takes all” (Mainwaring and Shugart 1997a, 453).
The “advantages” of presidentialism that Mainwaring and Shugart (1997a) and
von Mettenheim (1997) point out offset the weaknesses of parliamentarism.
Mainwaring and Shugart argue that presidentialism offers voters a greater variety of
choices since they can vote for both the executive and the legislature. Contrary to Linz,
Mainwaring and Shugart also argue that presidentialism offers voters a greater degree
of identifiability and accountability, since it is much more difficult for voters in
parliamentary systems to hold parties accountable when they are members of grand
coalitions —let alone to predict what kind of coalitions are possible. Such a problem
would be more acute in new democracies. Finally, they argue that legislative
independence in presidentialism makes the system more stable and effective than
parliamentarism, since legislators “can act on legislation without worrying about
immediate consequences for the survival of the government, issues can be considered
on their merits rather than as matters of ‘confidence’” (Mainwaring and Shugart 1997a,
462). Von Mettenheim also points to several advantages presidentialism has over
parliamentarism. For one, the separation of powers doctrine “provide[s] both moral
grounds and institutional settings for reconciling plebiscitarian, populist, and
nationalist appeals” since separately elected executives and legislators must balance
different political demands. More fundamentally, von Mettenheim argues that the
“separation of powers theory” is still relevant today and should be more carefully
included in analysis of institutional design.
Arend Lijphart is critical of majoritarian tendencies in both parliamentary and
presidential systems. Lijphart is especially critical of the “Westminster” style of
parliamentarism because it too is clearly majoritarian —perhaps even more majoritarian
12
than most presidential systems. He, of course, prefers to distinguish between
consociational and majoritarian democracies (e.g. Lijphart 1984). Linz, of course, does
not consider Westminster parliamentary systems as the “norm,” and expects uses
continental parliamentarism as his idealtype. Consociational systems are based on
grand coalitions that include all or nearly all relevant political groups and actors. These
coalitions are based upon informal agreements between political élites, rather than on
formal institutional rules. These informal rules, however, were often adopted only after
decades of conflictual and unstable politics; they were not created over night. Because
these systems are based on informal, rather than formal institutions, consociationalism
is also possible in presidential democracies. Lijphart has often pointed to Colombia and
Venezuela as examples of Latin American presidential systems that adopted
consociational rules. Subsequently, although Lijphart (1994b) joins Linz in condemning
presidentialism for being prone to majoritarianism, he argues that not all presidential
systems are necessarily majoritarian nor that all parliamentary systems escape the same
vice.
It is important to briefly note that consociationalism also suffers from its own
weaknesses. As a regime type, consociationalism is prone to rigidity if coalitions are
fixed too concretely and allow governments to remain in the same hands over time.
Similarly, the fixed, grand coalitions of consociationalism can damage the legitimacy of
democracy both if new groups are excluded and if elections become essentially
meaningless. If voters know that changes (even large ones) in election results do not
alter governments, they may become cynical and lose faith in the practice of democracy.
Even if this is not important in established democracies (but the example of Austria
suggests that it is), the practice of meaningful elections is crucial in new democracies. In
countries with histories of manipulated or façade elections (or with no history of
elections at all), consociational practices many not be clearly distinguishable from the
authoritarian past. Citizens in new democracies need to learn to value democratic
elections as a means for political (and policy) change. Finally, in newly established
democracies, the relevant groups and actors may not yet be established. A premature
consociational pact could also lock in some group(s) dominant in the early stages of
democratization as the price for electoral democracy.3 Thus, consociationalism could
actually serve a conservative function in new democracies and may unnecessarily
prolong the influence of hardliners or authoritarian élites.
Lijphart’s proposal in favor of consociationalism comes close to making
institutions essentially meaningless; it is also much more élite driven. If successful
democratic consolidation rests on élite consensus, and if consensus is possible in any
3 For example, both Colombia’s “National Front” and Venezuela’s “Punto Fijo” bipartisan power
sharing accords essentially locked in the two dominant parties in each country at the expense of later
groups. The development of the guerrilla war in Colombia and Venezuela’s recent political instability
has been blamed on these consociational strategies that guaranteed that no other social groups or
political parties could challenge the status quo. See Gaviria (1998), Hartlyn and Dugas (1999), Hoskin
and Murillo (1999), Levine and Crisp (1999), McCoy (1999).
13
institutional framework (from parliamentarism to presidentialism), then the debate over
which system to adopt is no longer critical. Lijphart still sees formal institutional design
as playing a significant role in democratic consolidation, however (e.g. Lijphart and
Waisman 1996). Incentives must be sought that encourage coalition building. Lijphart’s
1994 article in the Linz and Valenzuela volume, The Failure of Presidential Democracy,
argues that parliamentarism is —on the whole— more amenable to consociational
democracy than is presidentialism.
Perhaps the best argument for rejecting parliamentarism for new democracies
comes from Sartori (1997, Ch. 6). Despite joining Linz in criticizing presidentialism,
Sartori (1994) rejects parliamentarism as a solution for new democracies. Instead, he
recommends a mixed system similar to that of the French Fifth Republic. Sartori’s
criticism of parliamentarism rests mainly on the system’s dependence on
“parliamentary fit” parties. These types of party systems are lacking in Latin America.
Parliamentary fit parties are strongly institutionalized and disciplined political parties
that are able to “hold together in supporting the government (generally a coalition) that
is their appointee” (Sartori 1997, 102). Without parliamentary fit parties, a switch to
parliamentarism could easily lead to unstable and shortlived governments. Such a
situation is clearly dangerous for new democracies, where citizens and élites alike may
not easily distinguish between a government and a regime crisis, as Horowitz (1990)
demonstrates. More to the point, in an underdeveloped country with no history of
democracy there may not be a difference between these two distinct forms of crisis.
Sartori’s argument that Latin America (and other new democracies) lack
parliamentary fit parties is crucial. As S. M. Lipset (2000) points out, political parties are
“indispensible” for democracy. Democracies need strong disciplined parties for various
reasons. Disciplined parties with clear ideologies and policy platforms make electoral
politics more identifiable and accountable. Voters can more clearly predict government
teams and policies when parties are disciplined and adopt predictable policies.
Disciplined parties also allow for depersonalization of politics since parties develop
long term strategies and seek to develop future party leaders. Conversely, legislators
from disciplined parties have greater incentives to work with executives since their
future electoral success depends on collective efforts to successfully implement policy.
Without disciplined parties, voters cannot easily hold governments accountable in
future elections.
Hybrid Systems and the French Model
Because presidentialism and parliamentarism are both open to criticism, some
scholars have recommended “hybrid” or “mixed” systems instead. Sartori (1994) begins
his criticism of Linz by emphasizing that parliamentarism and presidentialism do not
exhaust the universe of types of democratic systems. Pointing to cases such as Bolivia
and France, Sartori points out the possibility of constitutional designs that are “neither
14
presidential nor parliamentary.” Still, Sartori obviously has the French system in mind
since he only discusses Bolivia’s system in passing. Since the French system is markedly
different than Bolivia’s system of parliamentarized presidentialism, it should be briefly
discussed.
The French system of can be described as a twinengine model. Also known as
“premierpresidentialism” (Shugart and Carey 1992), this system is both presidential
and parliamentary marked by a dual executive. The head of government is the premier
or prime minister, selected by the parliament. The head of state is the president, chosen
by direct popular election. In theory, the two “engines” of premierpresidentialism are
able to switch on and off as needed to provide the stability of presidentialism while
maintaining the greater flexibility of parliamentarism. Critics of this system (e.g.
Shugart and Carey 1992; Suleiman 1994), however, point out that it is prone to many of
the same shortcomings that plague pure presidential systems.
The separate election of the head of state means that the system also suffers from
a problem of dual legitimacy. Similarly, because the president is elected for a fixed term,
the system is no more immune to rigidity than pure a presidential system. In new
democracies, especially, these problems can become accentuated. More importantly
still, premierpresidentialism is a more complicated system than either presidentialism
or parliamentarism. Citizens in countries with little experience with democracy man not
be able to understand clearly a political system with two separate engines, each of
which can take over the direction of government and each of which has separate bases
of legitimacy. Similarly, in countries with weak party systems, the struggles between
the president and prime minister could just as likely lead to delegative democracy as
could presidential systems. Finally, not only the different claims to legitimacy, but the
different claims to power of each engine can prove destabilizing. Under such
conditions, the role of the military as poder moderador is more likely. Ezra Suleiman
(1994) points out that the stability of France’s political system was due to factors outside
its constitutional structure.
Premierpresidentialism has been adopted by many East European countries,
such as Russia, to less than promising results. Russia’s political system has been
dominated by its president, both under Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin. Sartori
himself recognizes that if the Russian system is a premierpresidential system, “it is an
ill conceivedone” (1997, 139 n. 9). The Russian experience —along with that of other
East European premierpresidential systems— suggests that new democracies are ill
suited for this type of system. If premierpresidentialism in new democracies operates
like a presidential system, with strong executives who use decree powers to overcome
parliamentary opposition, then proposing premierpresidentialism as a solution to the
“perils” of presidentialism seems unpromising.
Part of the problem may lie in the nature of premierpresidentialism itself.
Suleiman (1994) actually considers the French system a “presidential” system and
argues that the “success” of premierpresidentialism had less to do with the system
itself than with other factors. He argues that the “dual executive system does not
15
function in a predetermined way” and can lead to either “cohabitation” (when
president and prime minister get along), moderated conflict, or even “competing
legitimacies” (Suleiman 1994, 139). The separate, independent democratic legitimacy
each executive has can lead to divisive political struggles if the president and the prime
minister represent different political parties or coalitions. Even in the French system, the
division of powers between both branches of government are rather unclear. In the
hands of strongwilled executives (such as a Yeltsin), the power to disband the cabinet
and rule by decree would be a strong temptation. Under such conditions, premier
presidentialism is just as prone to delegative democracy (and for the same reasons) as
presidential systems in which strong executives lack legislative majorities. In sharp
contrast to Sartori’s optimism, Suleiman warns that “the 1958 French constitution is a
delicate instrument that should be emulated with extreme caution” (1994, 160).
I agree with the argument that mixed systems may serve new democracies better
than “pure” systems. But I also hold that a key element necessary for successful
democratic consolidation is simplicity. The virtues of simplicity include transparency
and ease of operation. Voters can quickly “learn” how to govern themselves via their
representatives if they can clearly see how their votes translate into governments and
policies. The French system, for all its advantages, is a complicated system and may
prove unwieldy if adopted by new democracies. If hybrid systems offer the best
possibility to balance the needs for stability and flexibility, we should look to the case of
Bolivia, which offer another model of a mixed political system. The study of Bolivia’s
system of parliamentarized presidentialism does more than merely help us fill in the
gaps in our typology of political systems and regime types. The Bolivian model is
instructive because it led to democratic consolidation in a leastlikely scenario.
Parliamentarized presidentialism balances the need for stability and flexibility without
the bulkiness of two engines that must somehow cohabitate.
The Bolivian Model
16
First, the backbone of parliamentarized presidentialism is the electoral system.
The combination of list proportional representation with a fused ballot is the key
institutional constraint defining Bolivia’s political system. It is commonly understood
that proportional PR electoral systems are associated with —and tend to reinforce—
multiparty systems (Duverger 1954; Lijphart 1994a). For this reason, critics of
presidentialism point out the dangers of combining independent elections for the
executive with proportional representation elections for the legislature since they tend
to produce executives without legislative majorities. The Bolivian case is an exception,
however, because of its fused ballot. The highly simple structure of the Bolivian ballot
fuses the election of the executive and legislature into one singular vote choice,
resembling ballots in “pure” parliamentary systems. When voting, Bolivian citizens
receive a simple “multicolor, multisign” ballot that has the name of each presidential
candidate along with the names, signs, and colors of their party. Voters are then given a
pencil and simply asked to mark the box for their presidential candidate. Seats in the
lower and upper chambers of the legislature are then given out in proportion to vote
shares. If a candidate wins a majority of the vote, he or she is automatically chosen as
president.
Second, if no presidential candidate wins by direct popular vote, the newly
elected legislature meets to elect the president as stipulated in Article 90 of the
constitution. Before 1994, the Congress chose from among the three candidates who
won the most votes; after 1994, Congress now chooses from among the top two. This
provision, of course, was originally meant to apply only if no candidate wins a clear,
absolute majority. The realities of Bolivia’s multiparty system, however, have meant
that this provision has been used to select every president since 1982 (a total of five).
There is no indication that any presidential candidate will win an absolute majority in
future elections.4
Third, during the congressional election stage, informal coalition rules play a
pivotal role. The electoral system constrains voters and politicians by reinforcing a
competitive multiparty system. Article 90 provides a selection rule if no candidate wins
by direct election. But this provision does not stipulate how the legislature should select
a president. After all, the legislature could merely elect a compromise candidate,
producing a president with no legislative majority. Since 1985, however, Bolivia’s
political parties have adopted coalitionbuilding strategies used to select presidents. In
exchange for votes for their presidential candidate, parties receive cabinet positions and
concessions to adopt specific policy platforms, along with a general share in the
government agenda and state patronage. These coalitions are also loosely
“consociational” in the sense that member parties use the cabinet —or even
paraconstitutional bodies5— from which to set policy jointly, often after intense intra
coalition negotiations. These coalitions, however, are also not consociational in the
4 The largest vote share for any candidate (38.7%) was won by Siles Zuazo’s UDP in 1980. Since
then, vote shares have been spread between the largest parties. In 1997, Bánzer Suárez’s ADN was the
frontrunner with only 22.3%.
17
sense that Lijphart would use; they are not so inclusive that they eliminate the
important role of a democratic opposition or eliminate competition from the political
system.
Finally, it seems clear that voters understand the informal rules used by political
élites to form coalition governments —although this would require further empirical
evidence. Over time, two clearly marked “poles” have formed marked by the
Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (MNR, National Revolutionary Movement) on the
one hand and a firm alliance between Acción Democrática y Nacionalista (ADN,
Democratic National Action) and Movimiento de la Izquierda Revolucionaria (MIR,
Movement of the Revolutionary Left). Other parties have emerged to play “king
maker” roles, although some have consistently aligned themselves to the major parties.
Although the 1994 constitutional reforms introduced important changes to the
political system, there is no indication that they significantly affected parliamentarized
presidentialism. Since 1994, Congress is now restricted to selecting the president from
among the top two (rather than three) candidates. The practice of building coalitions
has gone largely unaffected and may instead have helped streamline the process. The
changes to the electoral system, introducing a Germanstyle multimember proportional
system, also do not seem to have affected the dynamics of parliamentarized
presidentialism. Although multimember proportional systems allow for direct, first
pastthepost election of representatives for half of the lower house in singlemember
districts, the system is still a proportional representation system since the other half of
the seats in the lower house are apportioned to reflect total votes. Scholars recognize
that this electoral system is fundamentally a type of proportional representation
(Lijphart 1999; Jones 1995a). A final change was the extension of the electoral cycle to
five years from four. As with the other changes, there is no indication that it
significantly altered the dynamic of parliamentarized presidentialism.
Because the Bolivian model uses a fused ballot from which both the legislative
and the executive offices are filled, the system is not prone to problems of dual
legitimacy. Just as in pure parliamentary systems, parliamentarized presidentialism
produces an executive whose basis of legitimacy is intimately connected to that of the
parliament. The system retains presidential aspects, however, since the types of powers
each branch of government hold are substantively separated. The president does not
have the constitutional power to dismiss the legislature; the legislature, for its part, does
not have the ability to call a vote of confidence. Subsequently, the set term limits for
both branches of government —which are concurrent— give the system a degree of
stability that might not have been possible if Bolivia had adopted a pure parliamentary
system.
The system has also positively affected Bolivian political life and contributed to
5 For example, the 198993 MIRADN “Acuerdo Patriotico” (AP) coalition government was
governed primarily through the Comité del Acuerdo Patriotico (Committee of the Patriotic Accord). Jaime
Paz Zamora (head of MIR) was president of the republic; Hugo Bánzer Suárez (head of ADN) was
chairman of the committee and was often referred to as the “copresident.”
18
democratic consolidation. Since 1982 and the adoption of parliamentarized
presidentialism, the highly fragmented party system gave way to a more moderate
multipartism. At the same time, other stipulations of the electoral law have combined to
encourage and help enforce party discipline and the institutionalization of the current
party system. Bolivia’s electoral law stipulates that legislative seats belong to party
members, not to individuals. This helped parties enforce discipline over their members,
since renegade legislators could be legally removed from their seats by their parties
simply by being dismissed from the party. Such provisions, reinforcing the system of
parliamentarized presidentialism, have helped consolidate not only Bolivia’s
democracy, but also its party system as well. Bolivia’s political parties are now more
disciplined and “parliamentary fit” than they were before 1982. A consideration of the
historical evidence supports the argument that Bolivia’s unique institutional design
contributed to democratic consolidation.
Parliamentarized Presidentialism in Practice
The difficulty of the transition process demonstrates the importance of political
learning. While the formal institutional structure of parliamentarized presidentialism
remained the same, it took Bolivia’s political élites from 1978 until at least 1985 to fully
understand the importance of informal coalitions rules. One could argue, of course, that
Bolivia’s political élites could have, in time, learned to use any system. One could also
argue that some other political system might have functioned better from the beginning.
Such criticisms are as difficult to deflect as they are to test. I argue, however, that
parliamentarized presidentialism has served Bolivia better, in the long run, than any of
the three other systems. Both pure presidentialism and premierpresidentialism would
have produced problems of dual legitimacy, while the uncertainties of the transition era
would have led to unstable parliamentarism. In the end, parliamentarized
presidentialism —once it went into effect— allowed Bolivia to consolidated democracy
under extremely hostile conditions. To understand this, we must turn to the historical
evidence.
Bolivia made its democratic debut in 1982. Although several civilian
governments ruled throughout its history, none of these would qualify as democracies
using Robert Dahl’s criteria for polyarchy (Dahl 1971; Centellas 1999). The constitution
this first democratic government inherited had been written in 1967 during the military
government of René Barrientos, though it had never been implemented. The transition
to democracy began as early as 1978, when thendictator Hugo Bánzer Suárez stepped
down in favor of elections. Although elections were held in 1978, 1979, and 1980, no
presidential candidate won a majority; this set off a period of extreme political crisis
that lasted until the last military junta was replaced in 1982. The unwillingness of
politicians to select a president after the 1979 and 1980 elections —largely due to
Bolivia’s political élite failure to use the 1967 constitution’s provision for congressional
19
election of the president— proved costly. Military hardliners used the political
confusion as excuse to launch coups (often with the help of congressional factions)
against the fragile interim civilian governments. Much of the learning process involved
politician’s recognizing and exploiting the implications of Article 90 of the constitution,
which calls for the legislature to elect the president if no candidate wins a simple
majority. Since Bolivia’s democratic history began with a highly fragmented multiparty
system and a fusedballot list proportional representation electoral system, no
presidential candidate was able to (or has yet) won an absolute majority of votes. It was
not until 1982, however, that congressional election of the executive was formally
instituted.
The 1979 and 1980 elections failed to produce a majority, even though the Unidad
Democrática y Popular (UDP, Democratic and Popular Union) won a plurality each time.
When civilian government was finally restored in 1982, Congress chose to elect the
plurality winner. The UDP, however, was a loose preelectoral coalition and did not
bargain with other parties. Subsequently, while Siles Zuazo faced a divided opposition,
he lacked a legislative majority with which to effectively govern. As the economic crisis
of the early 1980s spiraled out of control, the UDP alliance began to unravel. Finally, in
1985, Siles Zuazo —faced with no legislative support and unable to govern effectively—
called for early elections.
The 1985 general election was a turning point in Bolivia’s political history
(Gamarra 1997a). Not only did it mark the first peaceful transition of power by ballot, it
marked the beginning of presidentialized parliamentarism. Bánzer Suárez’ Acción
Democrática y Nacionalista (ADN, Democratic and Nationalist Action) won a plurality of
votes (32.8 percent) in the popular ballot but was unable to gain a majority of the seats
in the National Congress. Most political actors were uneasy about allowing the former
dictator to hold presidential power so soon after the return to democracy. The potential
stalemate was ended peacefully when Congress implemented Article 90 and chose the
secondrunner, Paz Estenssoro as president. Knowing that no other parties would
support the ADN candidate, the Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (MNR,
Nationalist Revolutionary Movement) campaigned to gain the support of the other
parties in the legislature for its candidate, Paz Estenssoro.
Shortly after his election, however, Paz Estenssoro made a political pact with the
ADN. This pact, known as “Pacto por la Democracia” (“Pact for Democracy”) ensured the
new president a legislative majority. In exchange, Paz Estensorro’s government adopted
many of the economic policies favored by the ADN. This coalition lasted the four years
of Paz Estenssoro’s government and ensured the implementation of the government’s
orthodox economic program. Although the 198285 Siles Zuazo government was a
“coalition government” of sorts, the MNRADN government was the first true coalition
government. The UDP was a loose electoral alliance of leftofcenter parties and lacked
any sort of party discipline. As the economic crisis deepened, Siles Zuazo’s coalition
disintegrated in the legislature, leaving him without the ability to govern. In contrast,
both Paz Estenssoro and Bánzer Suárez were able to discipline their parties and
20
maintain the uneasy MNRADN alliance.
The next political regime was installed in 1989 after the candidate of the
Movimiento de la Izquierda Revolucionaria (MIR, Movement of the Revolutionary Left),
Jaime Paz Zamora, was chosen over frontrunner Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada (MNR)
and second runnerup Bánzer Suárez (ADN). Bánzer Suárez threw his party’s support
behind the third runnerup to prevent MNR from taking the presidency for a second
consecutive term. In exchange, ADN was granted several cabinet and ministerial posts.
The two parties signed the “Acuerdo Patriotico” (AP, Patriotic Accord) which outlined
their cogovernment The primary reason why ADN supported the MIR candidacy, was
the unwillingness of MNR to concede the election to ADN without contest. Under the
Pacto por la Democracia agreement, ADN expected to receive MNR’s endorsement for
Bánzer Suárez as president. Instead, MNR campaigned behind Paz Estenssoro’s
successor, Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada.
At first, the MIRADN alliance seemed strange. The ADN was a rightofcenter
party, while MIR was the Bolivia’s last important leftofcenter party. Conventional
wisdom would have suggested another alliance between ADN and the centrist MNR, or
between MNR and MIR. But the MIRADN alliance soon developed into what now
seems to be perpetual alliance between the two parties. Since 1989 ADN and MIR have
consistently joined together as either opposition or government. At the end of their first
cogovernment, the two parties formed a new single party (AP) for the 1993 general
elections. Results of the 1993 electoral configuration were dismal, suggesting that
partisans in both parties preferred to retain their own independent identities.
Nevertheless, both parties continue to work closely together. Although both parties
differ on the lefttoright spectrum, they agree on the new key issues of centralization
and nationalization of the economy. While the MNR has, since 1985, embraced more
neoliberal and “pluralist” or decentralization policies, ADN and MIR have jointly
continued to embrace the more traditional direction of Bolivian domestic and foreign
policy.
The 1993 general elections returned the MNR to the presidency when Sánchez de
Lozada won the support of two new parties: the Unidad Cívica Solidaridad (UCS,
Solidarity Civic Union) and the Movimiento Bolivia Libre (MBL, Free Bolivia Movement).
The following year, in September, UCS abandoned the government after disagreements
concerning the populist party’s role in administration. Seven UCS members did,
however, break ranks and remained in the government coalition, still giving Sánchez de
Lozada a majority in the Chamber of Deputies. In June 1995 Max Fernández, UCS
founder and party chief, brought his party formally back into the government.
The 199397 MNRled government was the first indication of a new balance of
power in Bolivian politics. Campaigning against Bánzer Suárez, the ADNMIR
candidate, the MNR formed a formal coalition with the indigenous Movimiento
Revolucionario Tupaj Katari de Liberación (MRTKL, Tupaj Katari Revolutionary Movement
of Liberation). This MNRMRTKL electoral front presented Bolivia with the first
Aymara candidate, Victor Hugo Cárdenas, for a major political party. The postelectoral
21
alliance with MBL was expected, since MBL broke from MIR specifically over the issue
of the latter party’s alliance with ADN. As with the MIRADN alliance, this new
pluralist pole seems to hold MNR, MRTKL, and MBL together. The MNRMRTKL
alliance is the strongest, since the two have since campaigned together in the 1997
elections (although MRTKL still campaigns independently in local elections).
Bánzer Suárez was elected after the 1997 general elections. A dramatic rise in
support for the two new populist parties, UCS and Conciencia de Patria (CONDEPA,
Conscience of the Fatherland), spread the vote into five large blocks. Bánzer Suárez’s
coalition government (known as “la Mega”) was a supermajority comprising of ADN,
MIR, UCS, CONDEPA, and the small Nueva Fuerza Republicana (NFR, New Republican
Force).6 The Mega has proved unwieldy, however, since as many as five political parties
must coordinate against an opposition dominated by the large MNR, which is still
closely supported by MBL. Within a year, tensions within la Mega caused a crisis as
CONDEPA and UCS demanded more power within the coalition.7 In his August 1998
stateoftheunion address, Bánzer Suárez formally dismissed CONDEPA from the
government coalition. Subsequently, the ADNled government no longer holds a
supermajority in the Chamber of Deputies. The shortlived grand coalition of 199798
might have taught Bolivia’s political élites a valuable lesson. The power of a
supermajority to enact legislation is diminished if intracoalition disputes prevent the
development of a coherent government program. The smaller version of la Mega is now
more able to implement policy with a legislative majority.
Parliamentarized Presidentialism and Democratic Consolidation
Parliamentarized presidentialism was perhaps the most important contributing
factor in Bolivia’s democratic consolidation. While other variables, such as political will,
are also important, it is clear that the institutionalist argument —that political
6 NFR was part of the official ADNNFRPDC electoral front. The small Partido Democrático
Cristiano (PDC, Christian Democratic Party) has not campaigned independently since 1985. Since then it
has been incorporated de facto (when not explicitly) into the ADN electoral lists. The NFR is headed by
the popular alcalde (mayor) of Cochabamba (Bolivia’s third largest city), Manfred Reyes Villa. Villa was
a onetime member of ADN, but formed his own personalist party to become Cochabamba’s alcalde.
Despite being a small preelectoral ally, NFR has special privileges with la Mega.
7 CONDEPA was the more troublesome of the two. Posturing for greater power within the
government coalition, CONDEPA voted against the government proposal to eliminate the Bono
Solidario (BONOSOL), the national pension plan created by the Sánchez de Lozada government, less
than a month before the 6 August 1998 stateoftheunion address. Tensions were even high shortly
after the election when CONDEPA demanded the prefecture of Santa Cruz, Bolivia’s most
economically dynamic department, as part of the coalition agreement. This resulted in mass protests
from cruceños, since CONDEPA had gained only 2.13 percent of the departmental vote. Another source
of tension was the election of the presidents of the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies. ADN and MIR
had agreed, as senior coalition partners, to alternatively hold these positions. Both UCS and CONDEPA
demanded that their candidates be considered for these important positions.
22
institutions shape incentives and significantly affect outcomes— is a powerfully
convincing one. Glancing at two countries with similar conditions, Ecuador and Peru,
we can more clearly see how the unique institutional design of parliamentarized
presidentialism helped Bolivia avoid the problems that continue to plague its two
Andean neighbors. The Bolivian model provides opportunities for what I term
“political learning.” By increasing accountability and identifiability, reducing the
negative effects of multipartism, and encouraging moderated competition,
parliamentarized presidentialism allowed Bolivia’s citizens and political élites to
quickly learn the operation of democracy. The central features distinguishing
parliamentarized presidentialism, fused ballot proportional representation and formal
separation of the executive and legislature with concurrent, fixed terms, also combine to
reduce the chief dangers of pure parliamentarism and presidentialism. The fused ballot
eliminates the problem of dual legitimacy found in presidential (and premier
presidential) systems. The development of fixed terms and the lack of a legislative vote
of confidence provision avoids the instability that could accompany a switch to pure
parliamentarism. Instead, Bolivia’s political system of parliamentarized presidentialism
encourages bargaining and coalition building which is flexible enough to provide broad
basis of legitimacy to governments, while also providing incentives for coalitions to
hold together and govern effectively for full terms.
The historical evidence demonstrates that Bolivia’s party system has moved
away from the polarized, fragmented party system of the past. Today, Bolivia has fewer
political parties than in the hectic 197885 period. These parties have also developed a
remarkable degree of discipline. Party leaders have been able to enforce coalitions, due
greatly in part to the laws regulating political parties. These stipulate that legislative
seats are held by parties, not by individuals. Subsequently, legislators who decide to
vote against their party can be easily removed from office by simply being officially
kicked out of the party. In such cases, their partydesignated “suplente” (alternate)
would take the vacant seat. The electoral system has also encouraged a more moderate
form of multipartism. As predicted by Jones (1995), the use of mediumsized district
magnitudes has reduced the number of relevant political parties by introducing a high
effective threshold. In the process, extremist parties have been marginalized to the point
where many no longer campaign in national elections —though some still campaign in
local elections. Thus, the extreme left and right of the political spectrum has been
truncated, leaving only “centrist” parties.
The reduction in the number of parties, and especially the virtual elimination of
extremist parties, has also contributed to moderated competition and a reduction of
zerosum politics. The normalization of coalitionbuilding strategies has meant that
parties recognize the need to tone down campaign rhetoric in anticipation of seeking
potential coalition partners immediately after the election. As politics has become
centripetal, parties have developed cohesive policy platforms that seek to distinguish
each other from competitors. At the same time, parties have learned to develop
amicable relations with one another; friendly relations make alliances more likely. With
23
increased party discipline, party leaders are also better able to enforce coalition voting,
thus also increasing levels of trust between parties. Parties that are unreliable coalition
partners may be rejected in future coalition agreements in favor of parties that
demonstrate more discipline and loyalty.
Subsequently, coalitions are now formed at two levels: preelection and post
election. Some parties have formed perpetual alliances during elections. These have
usually involved smaller parties such as MRTKL (allied to MNR) or PDC (allied to
ADN) which have simply merged into the larger party’s electoral lists and formally
aligned themselves to the larger parties. Of course, these parties may still retain their
individual identities and campaign separately for local offices. Postelectoral coalitions
are made after election between parties (or groups of parties) agreeing to share power
in government. The adoption of the Germanstyle multimember proportional electoral
system may introduce a new level of coalition bargaining. Since voters can now vote for
the traditional party list and the new singlemember district representative, the same
type of electoral campaign arrangements and strategies developed there might soon
also be more formally adopted in Bolivia. If so, this could only reinforce cooperative
behavior between parties.
The adherence to cooperative behavior among moderately competitive and
disciplined parties has increased accountability and identifiability in Bolivia’s political
system. Since parties are closely disciplined, voters are able to easily place blame or
praise for policy outcomes. Similarly, Bolivia’s political parties have developed more
“depth,” providing more future leaders. The major parties have especially developed
second tiers of leadership within their parties. Up and coming party members are given
highly visible ministerial posts or other positions from which to develop both expertise
and visibility. These are expected to replace outgoing party leaders and campaign for
the presidency. Since reelection (to any office) is prohibited, parties have developed
future candidates who are groomed for succession. Although no such candidate has yet
to win an election, it was often clear from the very early days of the government
administration who these candidates would be. The end result is that voters are easily
able to identify potential government “teams” from within the party itself and from the
subsequent coalitions. Voters who cast a ballot for ADN, for example, are well aware
that their party will most likely make an alliance with MIR, but not MNR.
Subsequently, they can anticipate as easily as in a parliamentary system the identities of
potential ministers and top level bureaucrats who will be chosen if their presidential
choice was elected.
Although it is difficult to directly test the claim that Bolivia’s institutional design
contributed to democratic stability and consolidation —or the converse claim that
another institutional design would have hindered democracy— a consideration of two
similar cases can provide counterfactual evidence. Ecuador and Peru are two such
cases. These two Andean countries, like Bolivia, are among the most underdeveloped in
South America and lack any real history of democracy. Both are also members of the
“third wave” and began their democratization experience (197880) with multiparty
24
systems. The different paths that these countries have taken help demonstrate the
unique advantages of the Bolivian model.
Both Ecuador and Peru use a majority runoff formula to elect their president
instead of congressional election, as in parliamentarized presidentialism. The
combination of a secondround runoff for the president combined with a separate
election for the legislature meets Linz’s expectations for presidential systems. Both
regimes are plagued by problems of dual legitimacy and the manufactured majorities
for presidents. In Peru, this combination led to the election of a political outside, Alberto
Fujimori, who was unable to cooperate with an oppositiondominated legislature.
Shortly after his election, Fujimori simply disbanded the legislature with support from
the military —introducing the term “presidential coup” to our political vocabulary. In
Ecuador, on the other hand, democracy has managed to survive (even if barely) despite
the lack of effective governments. Ecuadorian presidents are elected with little party
support, which soon disintegrates due to lack of party discipline. Coalition
governments are very difficult to implement, since party discipline is so low that a
soccer term “cambio de camisetas” (change of shirts) is commonly used to describe how
politicians change parties while in office (Barczak 1997). Finally, the addition of
midterm elections means that Ecuadorian presidents must try to cobble together a
piecemeal coalition every two years. That Ecuadorian democracy has managed to limp
along for two decades is, in my opinion, nothing short of a miracle. I suggest, however,
that adoption of a form of parliamentarized presidentialism would dramatically
improve Ecuador’s chances of building effective governments and finally consolidating
its democracy. If Bolivia had a presidential system, there is no reason to believe that the
outcome would have been similar to Ecuador (less likely) or Peru (more probable).
Similarly, I argue that a parliamentary system would have been an obstacle to
democratic consolidation in Bolivia. With newly emerging political parties,
parliamentarism would have been extremely chaotic. The use of a vote of confidence
would have been further debilitating. Evidence from Bolivia’s 311 municipal
governments is instructive. The electoral system used for municipal governments is
similar to that used for national elections. Voters choose from party lists headed by the
party’s choice for alcalde. From this single vote, the municipal council’s seats are
proportionally distributed among parties. In the event that no party wins a majority,
coalition governments are formed. Municipal governments, however, do use a
constructive vote of confidence. The use of the constructive vote of confidence (which is
a mild form of the vote confidence) has proved problematic in Bolivia’s municipal
governments (Rojas Ortuste 1998). Many of the more “parliamentarized” municipal
governments have been unstable, as they change alcalde on a yearly basis. From this
evidence, we can expect that the introduction of a vote of confidence (constructive of
otherwise) might lessen democratic stability and effective governance.
Conclusion
25
We must, of course, be careful in drawing overly broad conclusions about
Bolivia’s democratic consolidation from the little evidence we have about its political
institutions. We need more research and data on the development of Bolivia’s political
system and its operation. There is no reason to believe that Bolivia’s model of
parliamentarized presidentialism was either the cause of democratic consolidation or
that it made consolidation inevitable. Democratic consolidation is a complicated process
that involves several variables. If anything, the Ecuadorian case demonstrates that
political will —the sheer desire to make democracy work and maintain civilian
government— can go a long way. The Bolivian case does suggest, however, that
parliamentarized presidentialism should at least be considered by new democracies.
Countries with little experience with democracy and weakly institutionalized party
systems would, I believe, benefit from such a constitutional system. The Bolivian system
is simple to operate, and requires few drastic changes away from either a presidential
system or a parliamentary one. Countries that currently use a presidential system could
be easily parliamentarized by adopting congressional election of the president and a
fused ballot. Conversely, parliamentary systems could be presidentialized simply by
removing the vote of confidence.
It is also important to distinguish the Bolivian model as a general “type” and as a
“species.” Although Bolivia offers us the only operating example of parliamentarized
presidentialism, I do not expect that all of its specific institutional features are essential
to parliamentarized presidentialism as a type. What is most important are legislative
election of the executive (the “parliamentary” element) and the lack of a vote of
confidence (the “presidential” element). Thus, we see that the Bolivian system is a true
“hybrid,” unlike premierpresidentialism, which is rather a subtype of presidentialism,
as Suleiman (1994) argues. I do not wish to argue that all of the particular specifics of
the Bolivian system should be adopted by other new democracies. Different countries
have different needs that must also be considered. What this paper offers is merely the
suggestion of a “frame” upon which to build the machinery of democratic institutions.
Finally, it is important to remember that parliamentarized presidentialism, in a
multiparty context, requires adopting informal coalition building rules. I do not claim
that these informal arrangements follow necessarily (or even easily) from the
institutional framework of parliamentarized presidentialism. After all, it took Bolivian
élites several years to learn how to work together to build government coalitions that
could effectively govern. But a further lesson that the Bolivian case provides is a lesson
in coalition building for future democracies. If other new democracies adopt
parliamentarized presidentialism, I hope they can avoid similar costly mistakes.
26
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