Rock! Probability! Scissors! Shoot!

Purpose Introduce the use of a matrix to find experimental probabilities and

a tree diagram to calculate theoretical probabilities. Reinforce fair
games and use a matrix to find theoretical probabilities.

Common Core SMP SMP 2, SMP 3, SMP 4, SMP 5, SMP 7, SMP 8

GROUPING Work in pairs.

GETTING STARTED The rock-paper-scissors game has been popular for many years.
The two player game is played as follows:
● Each player makes a fist
● On the count of three (or on “shoot”), each player either
shows scissors by showing two fingers, paper by showing
four fingers, or a rock by showing a fist.
● If scissors and paper are shown, the player showing
scissors wins, since the scissors cut the paper
● If scissors and rock are shown, the player showing rock
wins since a rock breaks the scissors.
● If paper and rock are shown, the playing showing paper
wins since paper wraps a rock.

PROBABILITIES USING A MATRIX

1. Do you think rock-paper-scissors is a fair game? Explain?

2. Play the game 45 times. Each player should tally the outcomes in the matrix below.

Player 1: Rock Player 1: Paper Player 1: Scissors

Player 2: Rock

Player 2: Paper

Player 2: Scissors
 3. Use the data in your matrix to calculate the following experimental probabilities

P(you win) = _______ P(your partner wins) = _______ P(tie) = _______

4. Use the probabilities from the previous question to decide whether rock-paper-scissors
is a fair game. Explain.

5. Use the data in your matrix to calculate the following experimental probabilities

a. P(you show rock) = __________

b. P(your partner shows paper) = __________

c. P(you show rock) X P(your partner shows paper) = __________

d. P(you show rock and your partner shows paper) = __________

6. How do your answers for parts c and d compare?

7. Is P(you show scissors and your partner shows rock) about equal to the P(you show
scissors) X P(your partner shows rock)? Explain.

THEORETICAL PROBABILITIES USING A MATRIX

You can determine if a game is fair without conducting an experiment.

1. Complete the matrix below.

A = A wins
B = B wins
T = Tie

Player A: Player A: Player A:

Rock Paper Scissors

Player B: Rock A

Player B: Paper T

Player B: Scissors

2. If the players choose the signs they show randomly, each of the nine outcomes in the matrix
is equally likely. Find the probabilities in this case.

P(A wins) = _____________

P(B wins) = _____________

P(Tie) = ________________

3. Based on the probabilities in Questions 2, is the game of Rock, Paper, Scissors fair?
Explain?

4. Use the matrix to find the following theoretical probabilities.

A. P( A shows rock) =

B. P ( B shows paper ) =

C. P( A shows rock ) X P ( B shows paper ) =

D. P ( A shows rock and B shows paper ) =

5. How do your answers to parts C and D compare?

6. How does the theoretical probability exercise in Question 4 part D above compare with the
experimental probability you found in Question 5 part A from the previous section?
 PROBABILITIES USING A TREE DIAGRAM

Since Rock, Paper, Scissors can be thought of as a multi-stage experiment, it can be analyzed
using a tree diagram.

1. Complete the tree diagram.

2. What does the outcome PP in the tree diagram mean?

Player A Player B Outcomes

1 RR
The probability R
Player B 3
shows rock.
P ___
R
S
___

R ___

P P ___

S
PS
1
3
S R ___

The probability
Player A
P SP
shows scissors
S ___

Consider the path leading to the outcome RR. Since the choices made by Player A and Player
B are independent of one another, based on the probabilities along the path, we would expect
the following:

a. In ⅓ of the games played, Player A will show rock.

b. Player B will show rock in ⅓ of the games played in which Player A shows rock
(⅓ of ⅓).
This shows that the probability of each outcome is the product of the probabilities along the path
leading to the outcome.
3. P (PS) =
4. P ( SP or SR ) =
5. P ( A wins ) =
6. P ( B wins ) =
7. P ( At least one player shows scissors ) =