Foundations of Math 2

3-Day Probability Unit

DAY ONE:
Mathematics Learning Objectives:
Students will be able to state the purpose of Statistics and explain the characteristics of variability. Students will
be able to explain how they can utilize statistics in their own lives.

Language Demand:
Language Function: EXPLAIN
Vocabulary/Symbols: Statistics, mean, median, range, standard deviation, variability/variation, histogram,
boxplot, data
Mathematical precision: Students will display their ability to correctly explain the effect moving data points
can have on the mean, absolute sum of deviations, and standard deviation.
Discourse: Students will use the statistical skills gained from these lessons to make and support conjectures
from different types of statistical graphs.

Essential Question:
Why is it important to understand Statistics?

Common Core State Mathematics Standards:

Interpreting Categorical and Quantitative Data Summarize, represent, and interpret data on a single count or
measurement variable.
NC.M1.S-ID.1: Use technology to represent data with plots on the real number line (histograms, and
box plots).
NC.M1.S-ID.2: Use statistics appropriate to the shape of the data distribution to compare center
(median, mean) and spread (interquartile range, standard deviation) of two or more different data sets. Interpret
differences in shape, center, and spread in the context of the data sets.

CCSS Mathematical Practice Standards:

4 – Model with mathematics
5 – Use appropriate tools strategically
6 – Attend to precision

Materials:
White board, dry erase markers, laptops, projectors, and “Reflection Worksheet for Applet on Standard
Deviation”.
Websites: https://fi-courses.s3.amazonaws.com/tsdi/std%20dev%20websketch/index.html

Notes to the reader: Students should be seated in pairs for this lesson.

Time: 90 minutes
Time What is the teacher doing? What are students
doing?
Class To start the three-day probability unit, have a classroom discussion Students will respond
Discussion about statistics. Posing questions such as: to teacher questions.
What is Statistics? This should be a
(5 Minutes) - The science of data (all things data) comfortable
- The art and science of learning from data conversation, so if the
- Quantifying variability class can handle it,
- Making sense of data raising hands is not
Why is it important? necessary.
 - To make decisions
Why does it exist? Students will reflect on
- Variability how they use statistics
How do you, as students, use statistics? in their lives or how
How could you, in the future, use statistics? their peers might.

Allow the students to explore these question in a rich discussion Students will take note
before you, as the teacher, add in your statements. of the teacher’s
definition of statistics
and why it exists.
Classroom What is the mean? How do you calculate it? Students will respond
Discussion - The average of all numbers within the data set to teacher questions.
on Prior - The balance point of all the data This should be a
Knowledge - Sum of all data points divided by the number of data points comfortable
of Statistics What is the median? How do you calculate it? conversation, so if the
(10 - The middle number within the data set class can handle it,
minutes) - Order all data points in ascending or descending order and raising hands is not
find the data point in the middle. If there is an even number of necessary.
data points take the average of the two middle points.
Standard deviation? Students will reflect on
- The measure of variability within data what they already
- Distance from the mean know about statistics
Variability? and explain their
- Data points that deviate from the mean, the measure of chance knowledge to the class.
How can we graph statistics? How have you SEEN statistics graphed? This discussion should
- Histogram, bar graph be a reflection and a
- Pie chart learning opportunity
- Line graph for students who
- Bot plot unaware of these
- Scatterplot statistics terms.
If students do not know the formal definitions encourage them to state Students should
what they remember about the vocabulary. respect their peers
while explaining their
knowledge.

Students will take note

of the teacher’s
definition of these
vocabulary words.
Classroom Have students open the link: https://fi- In pairs, students will
Exploration courses.s3.amazonaws.com/tsdi/std%20dev%20websketch/index.html open the given link.
on As students are doing this, pass out the corresponding worksheet.
Variability Students will listen to
(30 Introduce the online app by stating the purpose and how to directions and ask
Minutes) manipulate the app. The purpose of this exercise is to better questions if they have
understand variance and standard deviation. On all six pages the red any.
line will be the mean of the data points. Please read all the
descriptions on each page, if not you will not understand the activity. Students will begin
working on the
worksheet and
 Asking the students if they have questions before letting them work exploring the applet.
on the worksheet in pairs. Students will
Walk around as the students are working and ask them questions such collaborate with their
as: partners on all
- Please explain your reasoning for your answer? Do you both questions. Students
agree on the answer? How did you come to that conclusion? will raise their hand if
Why did you write ____? Is there another way to come to they have a question or
the same conclusion? need help.
- Student 1 can you explain student 2’s reasoning in your own
words? Students will use
problem solving skills
to answer the
worksheet questions.
Variability Restart the applet and go through the whole worksheet as a class. Students will read their
Review responses to questions
(30 Work through the applet on the projected screen with the students. from worksheet.
Minutes)
Ask the students similar questions to as the section prior to this and Students will take
make sure they explain their thought process to the whole class. notes on changes they
want to make to their
Make sure there is a firm understanding of the histograms and outliers sheet and new things
before moving to the next questions. they have learned.

If time allows, make new graphs with the data set and pose new Students will ask
questions to the students! Or, have the students pose questions! Start a questions about things
EDA at the end of class to prepare the students for using CODAP they do not fully
tomorrow. understand.

Day One Artifacts:

Name:___________________________________________

Reflection Worksheet for Applet on Standard Deviation

The sketches on each page can help visualize deviations from the mean and aid in understanding the
mathematical structure behind two measures of variability: the mean absolute deviation and the standard
deviation.

Page 1:
What happens to the mean when you move a point to the right?

What happens to the mean when you move a point to the left?

How do the other deviations change?

Why is the sum of the deviations from the mean always zero?

Page 2:
What happens to the absolute deviations when you move the blue points away from the red line?

What happens to the absolute deviation when you move the blue points closer to the red line?

How can we make the Sum of Absolute Deviations from the Mean zero?

Page 3:
How do large and small deviations from the mean affect the mean absolute deviation?
Page 4:
What happens to the Sum of Squares of Deviation when you move the blue points away from the red line?

What happens to the Sum of Squares Deviations when you move the blue points closer to the red line?

How do the deviations from a point and the mean affect the Sum of Squares of the Deviations?

Page 5:
How do the large and small deviations from the mean affect the variance?

Page 6:
What is Standard Deviation?

How do large and small deviations from the mean affect the standard deviation?
 DAY TWO
Mathematics Learning Objectives:
Students will be able to use statistical measures to describe the center, shape, and spread of different data sets.
Students will be able to explain the contextual importance of the statistical distribution using a given context.

Language Demand:
Language Function: EXPLAIN
Vocabulary/Symbols: Distribution, center, spread, interquartile range, multivariate, outlier, categorical data,
quantitative data
Mathematical precision: Students will display their ability to correctly explain the shape, center, and spread of
a data set. As well, explain and summaries the data of two or more variables.
Discourse: Students will use the statistical skills gained from these lessons to make and support conjectures
from different types of statistical graphs.

Essential Question:
How can you describe a distribution?

Common Core State Mathematics Standards:

Interpreting Categorical and Quantitative Data Summarize, represent, and interpret data on a single count or
measurement variable.
NC.M1.S-ID.2: Use statistics appropriate to the shape of the data distribution to compare center
(median, mean) and spread (interquartile range, standard deviation) of two or more different data sets. Interpret
differences in shape, center, and spread in the context of the data sets.
NC.M1.S-ID.3: Examine the effects of extreme data points (outliers) on shape, center, and/or spread.
Interpreting Categorical and Quantitative Data Summarize, represent, and interpret data on two categorical and
quantitative variables.

CCSS Mathematical Practice Standards:

4 – Model with mathematics
5 – Use appropriate tools strategically
6 – Attend to precision

Materials:
Projector, CODAP, White Board, Markers,
Websites: https://codap.concord.org/releases/latest/static/dg/en/cert/index.html#file=examples:Map%20Data

Notes to the reader: Students should be seated in pairs.

Time: 90 minutes
Time What is the teacher doing? What are students doing?
Recap of Review the main points of yesterday Students will participate in
Yesterday - Important vocabulary, look back on yesterday’s discussion, sharing what they have
(5 lesson plan learned and any questions they may
Minutes) - Central idea have
- What the students thought they learned
- Any lingering questions
EDA Teacher notes on EDA or project the Wikipedia site on Students will take notes on EDA.
Discussion EDA:
(15 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exploratory_data_analysis Students will answer questions and
minutes) read off the screen when asked.
Ask the students what they think “Exploratory Data
Analysis” is and build off their answers to start defining Students will ask question when
it. needed.

Make sure to hit all the main points on EDA.

Let the students know this is what we will be engaging

in as a class tomorrow.

Graphing Have students open the online statistical tool: CODAP.
Statistics While the students do this, the teacher should also open
(45 the website on the projected screen. Teacher should
Minutes) work through student questions on the projected screen
for all students to see and understand.
Students will open a new web page to
the site codap.concord.org.
Students will make a new document
and select Map Data.

Introduce the last segment of class. “We will be using Students will obtain paper and pencil
CODAP for the rest of class to explore a couple ways to to answer the questions on the board.
graph statistics” Remind students to just write what
they can and describe what they see. Students will explore the data to
answer the questions. Asking
“When opening CODAP click, “New Document or questions when need needed.
Browse Examples”. Then, select Map Data. We will be
using CODAP the next couple of days and I want you Students will turn in their paper when
all to be comfortable with the software. Please ask finished.
questions when needed and feel free to explore the
software as much as possible”

Write on the board (Or Project):

On a sheet of paper complete these questions:

(1) Graph “Educ_Years (years)” What do you see? Plot

statistical measures using the ruler icon. Sketch the
histogram and write a 2-3 sentence description of what
you see.

(2) Graph “Educ_Tertiary_Perc”. What do you see?

Overlay statistical measures. What location on the map
is the far off plus value on the right? Write 1-2
sentences why you think this location has a high
Tertiary Education Percentage.

(3) Graph “Female Population” on the x-axis and “Male

Population” on the y-axis. What do you see? Overlap
statistical measures. What relationship do these two
variables have?
 (4) How has this software made looking at this data
easier?

Have students turn in their paper when finished.

Remind Students: the more comfortable they are with
this new software the easier tomorrow will be!
Encourage students to keep exploring for fun!
Review Project the CODAP data set for these questions.
Graphing
Statistics Take the time to thoroughly review questions 1, 2, 3,
(25 and 4.
minutes)
Make sure to address the student’s responses and
thought processes.
Be sure to manipulate the data on the projected screen
ad explore the meaning of the box plots with the
students.
Students will retrieve their papers and
reflect on their work.
Students will read their answers out
when asked and explain their
reasoning.
Students will be active in the
discussion and hopefully tell the
teacher how to manipulate the data on
the screen.

Day Two Artifacts:

(Projection)

(1) Graph “Educ_Years (years)” What do you see? Plot statistical measures using the ruler icon. Sketch the
histogram and write a 2-3 sentence description of what you see.

(2) Graph “Educ_Tertiary_Perc”. What do you see? Overlay statistical measures. What location on the map is
the far off plus value on the right? Write 1-2 sentences why you think this location has a high Tertiary
Education Percentage.

(3) Graph “Female Population” on the x-axis and “Male Population” on the y-axis. What do you see? Overlap
statistical measures. What relationship do these two variables have?

(4) How has this software made looking at this data easier?
 DAY THREE
Mathematics Learning Objectives:
Students will be able to make graphs and investigate them to find and explain relationships within the data set.

Language Demands
Language Function: EXPLAIN
Vocabulary/Symbols: Scatterplot, least squares regression line, linear function, residuals, trend,
positive association, negative association, no association
Mathematical precision: Students will display their ability to correctly explain the trends within the
data sets, and correctly state the contextual implications of these trends.
Discourse: Students will use the statistical skills gained from these lessons to make and support
conjectures from different types of statistical graphs.

Essential Question:
How can we use technology to find trends in our data?

Common Core State Mathematics Standards:

Interpreting Categorical and Quantitative Data Summarize, represent, and interpret data on a single count or
measurement variable.
NC.M1.S-ID.6: Represent data on two quantitative variables on a scatter plot, and describe how the
variables are related.
a) Fit a least squares regression line to linear data using technology. Use the fitted function to solve
problems.
b) Assess the fit of a linear function by analyzing residuals.
c) Fit a function to exponential data using technology. Use the fitted function to solve problems.

CCSS Mathematical Practice Standards:

4 – Model with mathematics
5 – Use appropriate tools strategically
6 – Attend to precision

Materials:
White board, projector
Websites: https://codap.concord.org/releases/latest/static/dg/en/cert/index.html , https://youtu.be/8YiWzYsBf4g

Notes to the reader: Laptops should be set up before students enter the classroom to allow for maximum
instructional and statistical investigation time.

Time: 90 minutes
Time What is the teacher doing? What are students doing?
Recap of Review key vocabulary and how it was Students will raise their hands to participate.
Yesterday implemented within class yesterday.
Students will share what they remember from
(5 Minutes) Ask students what they remember about the yesterday, come up with a class definition for
words, define the word as a class, and ask the the vocabulary, and explain why these words
students why it is important. are important.
- Distribution
- Center Students will ask questions if they are
- Spread confused or un aware of the context from
- Interquartile range yesterday.
- Multivariate
 - Outlier
- Categorical Data
- Quantitative Data

Introduce To promote motivation, have a classroom
CODAP discussion about the students’ experiences
And Data with roller coasters. How many of you have
Set ridden a coaster? What did you like about it?
Which ones did you ride?
(7 Minutes)
SHOW VIDEO:
https://youtu.be/8YiWzYsBf4g
Ask students to write down what they notice.
Question students on what they noticed, have
a small quick discussion
Teacher will pull up CODAP on the projector
and explain the technology behind CODAP.
Students will pay attention and quietly listen.
If students have questions, they are
encouraged to ask them.
Students will share their experiences with
roller coasters.
Students will build on their peers answers to
share their experiences and promote a
classroom discussions.
Students will write down what they notice in
the video.

Teacher will present the “Roller Coaster”

data set within CODAP.

Teacher will project the attribute list

associated with the Roller Coaster data set
and explain the attributes.

Ask students if they have questions, it is very

important that the students understand the
attributes before proceeding with the
investigation.

Assign Place students in groups if they are not Students will acknowledge their group
Students already in groups. Assign half of the class to members and ask any questions if they have
their Prompt #1 and the other half to Prompt #2. them.
Investigation
Question Share with the students the goal for today.

(2 Minutes) Ask students if they have any questions

before ending the task launch.

Depending on the class, do predictions

TOGETHER before investigating.
Data Teacher will remind students to read the Students will begin the assigned investigation
Exploration prompt carefully and make predictions before with their groups.
investigating.
(55 Minutes) Students will raise their hands if they have
Teacher will walk around the classroom and questions.
ensure everyone is on task.
 Students will talk though their statistical
Teacher will walk to groups with their hands thinking with their group members and
raised for questioning. productively decide how to answer the
prompts.
Teacher will probe students reasoning skills
with questions such as: Students will answer the teacher’s questions.
- “Why did you put that attribute on the
x axis?” Groups will decide on a conclusion that all
- “How else can we display this members agree on before presenting.
information?”
- “Can we overlay any statistical
measures?”
- “What statistical measures would be
helpful in this situation?”
- “Do you see a relationship?”
- “What kind of relationship do you
see?”
- “Is there a strong relationship between
these variables, how do you know?”

Teacher will let students know when there is

five minutes left until presentations, so the
groups can gather their thoughts.
Student Teacher will call on groups, one at a time, to
Presentations stand up and present.
(23 minutes) Teacher may ask question to promote a
meaningful classroom discussion but needs to
heavily rely on student responses and analysis
to guide the discussion.
Ask students to explain their reasoning, and
motive for making their graphs the way they
did.
When called upon, students will either stand
with their group or go to the board to present
their findings. Students will explain what
their predictions were and how they
performed their data analysis.
Students will describe what they did
differently from their peers and why.
Students are expected to use the vocabulary
words learned throughout this unit.

If there is a group member that is not Students will ask question and the presenters
participating the teacher will ask he or she a will be expected to answer to the best of their
question to evaluate their understanding. ability.

Teacher may conduct an informal assessment

of student understand during presentations.
Day Three Artifacts:

Attribute
Description
Name
Coaster Name of the roller coaster
Name of the park where the roller coaster is
Park
located
City City where the roller coaster is located
State State where the roller coaster is located
Type Material of track (Steel or Wooden)
 How a passenger is positioned in the roller
Design
coaster
Bobsled - designed like a bobsled run --
Design
without a fixed track. The train travels freely
Types:
through a trough.
Flying - a roller coaster ridden while parallel
with the track.
Inverted - a roller coaster which uses trains
traveling beneath, rather than on top of, the
track. Unlike a suspended roller coaster, an
inverted roller coaster's trains are rigidly
attached to the track.
Pipeline - a coaster where riders are
positioned between the rails instead of above
or below.
Sit Down - a traditional roller coaster ridden
while sitting down.
Stand Up - a coaster ridden while standing up
instead of sitting down.
Suspended - a roller coaster using trains
which travel beneath the track and pivot on a
swinging arm from side to side, exaggerating
the track's banks and turns.
Wing - a coaster where pairs of riders sit on
either side of a roller coaster track in which
nothing is above or below the riders.
Opened Year when roller coaster opened
Top Speed Maximum speed of roller coaster
Max Height Highest point of roller coaster
Length of largest gap between high and low
Drop
points of roller coaster
Length Length of roller coaster track
Duration Time length of roller coaster ride
Whether or not roller coaster flips passengers
Inversions?
at any point (Yes or No)
# of Number of times roller coaster flips
Inversions passengers
Age Group: 1:Older (Built between 1900-1979)
2:Recent (1980-1999)
3:Newest (2000-current)
Names:__________________________________________________________________________________B

Directions: Please work with your partner to answer the questions. Use your EDA skills and what we have been
learning in class about the least squares regression line.

Part 1:
1. Predict what you think the relationship between “Max Height” and “Year_Opened” is for this data set.
Now graph these attributes. What is the relationship between “Max Height” and “Year_Opened” for this
data set? Apply statistical measures. What trend or pattern do you see? Please explain in detail.

2. Predict what you think the relationship between “Top_Speed” and “Drop” is for this data set. Now graph
these attributes. What is the relationship between “Top_Speed” and “Drop” for this data set? Apply
statistical measures. What trends or patterns do you see? Please explain in detail.
 3. Look back at your initial prediction and then your conclusions. Were you surprised by your findings?
Why or why not?

4. Explore the data set. Can you find any other attributes that have a strong correlation (association)?

Part 2: When considering a roller coaster ride, what is the most important attribute you look for (speed, height,
drop, inversions, duration)? Now, compare your favorite attribute between steel and wooden coasters. How do
steel coasters compare to wooden coasters when considering your attribute? Justify your reasoning.
Names:__________________________________________________________________________________A

Part 1:
1. Predict what you think the relationship between “Year_Opened” and “Top_Speed” is for this data set.
Now graph these attributes. What is the relationship between “Year_Opened” and “Top_Speed” for this
data set? Apply statistical measures. What trend or pattern do you see? Please explain in detail.

2. Predict what you think the relationship between “Max_Height” and “Top_Speed” is for this data set.
Now graph these attributes. What is the relationship between “Max_Height” and “Top_Speed” for this
data set? Apply statistical measures. What trends or patterns do you see? Please explain in detail
 3. Look back at your initial prediction and then your conclusions. Were you surprised by your findings?
Why or why not?

4. Explore the data set. Can you find any other attributes that have a strong correlation?

Part 2: When considering a roller coaster ride, what is the most important attribute you look for (speed, height,
drop, inversions, duration)? Now, compare your favorite attribute between steel and wooden coasters. How do
steel coasters compare to wooden coasters when considering your attribute? Justify your reasoning
Example B:
Part 1
1. I predict that the younger/newer the roller coaster the taller that coaster will be. Students may sketch a
graph and use that to describe the relationship. Students may state the line of best fit and the correlation
coefficient. Students should be describing a relationship that is not very strong and has a lot of variation
as time progresses.
2. I predict the faster the roller coaster is the higher it will drop. Students may sketch a graph and use that
to describe the relationship. Students may state the line of best fit and the correlation coefficient.
Students should be describing a relative strong relationship between these tow variables. Yes there is
variation but the relationship is much stronger than the previous one.
3. The depends on student to student but some might disagree with the findings and still think they are
right. Some students will understand why they might have had a wrong prediction and explain why they
think so.
4. There was a relationship between Max_Height and Top_speed.
Part 2
1. For many of the attributes students may pick, like speed, height, and drop, they will notice that there is
more variability in the possibilities when it is a steel coaster.
Example A:
Part 1
1. I predict the older the coaster the slower the coaster. Students may sketch a graph and use that to
describe the relationship. Students may state the line of best fit and the correlation coefficient. Students
should be describing a relationship that is not very strong and has a lot of variation as time progresses.
2. I predict the taller the coaster the faster the coaster. Students may sketch a graph and use that to describe
the relationship. Students may state the line of best fit and the correlation coefficient. Students should be
describing a relative strong relationship between these tow variables. Yes there is variation but the
relationship is much stronger than the previous one.
3. See above.
4. There was a relationship between Top_Speed and Drop.
Part 2
1. See above.