On the model identification of an incubator
based on genetic algorithms
Yosra Miladi, Moez Feki, Nabil Derbel
University of Sfax
Control and Energy Management Laboratory,
National Engineering School of Sfax (ENIS)
Résumé—The aim of this paper is the modeling of the
heating problem inside an incubator for newborns. The
considered incubator has been offered by the neonatology
center of the Universitary Hospital of Sfax ; Tunisia.
Two models has been identified. The first one is conti-
nuous and the second one is discrete. Parameters of these
models have been optimised by genetic algorithms. Because
of the non linearity of the model, two phases have been
considered : the heating phase for an increasing of the
temperature and the cooling phase for a decreasing of
the temperature. Obtained models have been validated
experimentally.
Keywords : Genetic algorithms, Identification, Optimisa-
tion, Modeling.
I. I NTRODUCTION
An incubator is a system used to bring protection
and special care of premature newborns. It maintains
artificial climate inside it. The features of the incubator
are diverse, but they include particularly the temperature
regulation around 37◦ C which is the objective of this
work.
To maintain the temperature of the incubator around a
reference temperature, the control consists on varying the
cyclic ratio of a switch which connects between the AC
supply with effective value E = 220V AC and a heating
resistor responsible to heat the inside of the incubator.
The power and control electronic cards of an
incubator-type C100 were renewed in the laboratory1 in
order to improve the temperature control.
However, to control the incubator, model identification
step is essential for the formulation of a suitable control
law [11], [14].
The first works published in the literature concerning
the identification of dynamic systems have been deve-
loped using basic identification methods or conventional
methods as Broïda, Strejk, etc [14].
However, during the last three decades, considerable
efforts have been devoted to numerical methods, which
1 The studied incubator has been offered, to ‘the National Enginee-
ring School of Sfax’, by the Neo-natologie center of the Universitary
Hospital of Sfax.
978-1-4673-1591-3/12/$31.00 ©2012 IEEE
are formulated from the minimization of a certain perfor-
mance criterion to find an optimal solution, like genetic
algorithms [1], [2], [3], [4], [5], [6], [7], [8], [9], [10]and
least squares algorithms [15]. All methods mentioned
above require for their application experimental tests on
the system to be identified.
From the knowledge of several experimental measures
(input-output pairs), we can estimate the model parame-
ters from a recursive or non recursive Algorithms.
This paper is organized as follows. Second section pre-
sents genetic algorithms as optimisation tools. Third sec-
tion deals with the problem formulation. Fourth section
is presented to estimate the incubator model parameters
using genetic algorithms. Finally, sixth section presents
the conclusions.
II. G ENETIC ALGORITHMS
Genetic algorithms are based on the process of genetic
evolution of organisms living through generations. Ac-
cording to the Darwin evolution theory, only strongest
individus persist in a population.
Indeed, ill adapted organisms gradually disappear,
while best suited ones can reproduce offering offsprings
retaining several of their best characteristics.
Genetic algorithms are non conventional approaches
because they do not consist in finding an exact analytical
solution, or a good numerical approximation, but to
locate the global optimum. Unlike, the convergence to a
local minimum of conventional optimization methods is
not guaranteed [16], [17], [18], [19].
For a minimization or a maximization problem of a
criterion J, a genetic algorithm can proceed as follows :
1) Choose a random generation of an initial popula-
tion of N individuals ;
2) Evaluate the adjustment rate of each individual ;
3) Select a pair of parents following an appropriate
procedure ;
4) Cross two parents with a probability Pc to generate
two children ;
5) Mutate of the two children with a probability Pm ;
 6) Repeat steps 3, 4 and 5 until the new population 55
temperature ◦
C
contains N individuals ; 50
7) Iterate from step 2 until the algorithm converges,
or the maximum number of iterations is reached. 45

40

A genetic Algorithm (GA) generally consists of initial

population, fitness evaluation, and new population as 35

shown in figure 1 30

Time(h)
25
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Initial Population

F IG . 2. Temperature evolution inside the incubator

Fitness Evaluation
In continuous mode :
Mutation Operator ⎞ ⎛
t−τ
−
Crossover Operator No θ(t) = (θ∞ − θ0 ) ⎝1 − e T ⎠ + θ0 (1)
Convergence
Selection Operator Test
where θ0 is the value of the temperature at t = 0, τ is
New Population Yes the time delay and T is the time constant.
In discrete mode :
End
θ(k) = −a1 θ(k − 1) + b1 u(k − d − 1) + e(k) (2)
The aim of this work is the determination of the para-
F IG . 1. Flow chart of a genetic algorithm. meters of both expressed models by the two equations
(1) and (2).
Then a step of estimating the delay d is essential, for
III. P ROBLEM FORMULATION this it has been determined using the recursive algorithm
of structural estimation RLSVT giving d = 1 in the
All identification problems consider three analysis
heating and the cooling stages.
stages : the class selection, the structural estimation
Finally, the incubator has been described in discrete
and finally the parametric estimation. The parametric
mode by the following equation :
estimation needs to have a model of a well known
structure and class. The modeling of the incubator C100 θ(k) = −a1 θ(k − 1) + b1 u(k − 2) + e(k) (3)
has been treated in [11], where it has been identified
by a delayed first order model with a known delay of a IV. I NCUBATOR PARAMETERS OPTIMIZATION BY
GENETIC A LGORITHMS
deterministic class, stationary and linear by piece-wise.
An experience made up on the incubator gives the Characteristics of the considered genetic algorithm
evolution of its inside temperature presented in figure 2. are :
In this figure, two operator phases are considered : the
heating and the cooling phases. The heating phenomenon – The fitness function is defined by the following
is carried by switching on and off the heating resistor equation :
thus the control is obtained by judiciously choosing 1
the duty cycle of the switching signal. The experience F itness(k) = (4)
1 + J(k)
has been carried out by applying a 100% duty cycle
during the heating phase and by putting off the heating with
N 
 
during the cooling phase. The obtained results of figure  
J(k) =   
2 are closely similar to the step response of a first order θm (nTe ) − θ(k, nTe )
system. n=1

Therefore, the incubator has been described by the N is the number of measurements, θm (nTe ) is the
following two equations : measured temperature at discrete time nTe and k is

2
 the generation number. – Tf : between 1000s and 3000s
In the case where parameters to be estimated are – θc∞ between 0◦ C and 70◦ C
K, T , and τ : – θf∞ between 0◦ C and 35◦ C
⎛ ⎞ – τc between 0s and 100s
nTe − τ (k)

− – τf between 0s and 100c
⎜
 nTe ) = θ∞ (k)−θ0 ⎝1 − e T (k) ⎟
θ(k, ⎠+θ0The initial population of different parameters are repre-
sented by the figures 3 and 4.
(5)
If parameters to be estimated are a1 and b1 then : 3000 100

 
 nTe ) = −a1 (k)θm Te (n−1) +b1 (k)u Te (n−2)
2800 90

θ(k, 2600 80

2400 70
(6) 2200 60

– The initial population is chosen randomly. 2000 50

1800 40

– The chosen selection as the lottery wheel that 1600 30

consists on choosing individuals which are charac- 1400 20

1200 10

terized by the best fitness. The selection probability 1000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30

of individuals is proportional to their fitness and it (a) (b)

is given by :
F IG . 3. (a) Initial population of the time constant T in the heating
F itness(i) and the cooling phases ; (b) Initial population of the delay τ in both
Pi = maxpop (7) phases.

F itness(j)
j=1

with F itness(i) is the fitness of individual i and 70 35

maxpop is the total number of individuals. 60 30

– We choose the arithmetic crossover with a probabi- 50 25

lity Pc = 0.8
40 20

– In the mutation operation, it has been chosen Pm =

30 15

0.01 as mutation probability

20 10

10 5

– It has been considered a maximum number of gene- 0 0

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

rations of the genetic algorithm as stop condition. (a) (b)

We have chose 50 generations for the continuous
model estimating and 150 generations for the dis- F IG . 4. (a) Initial population of θc∞ ; (b) Initial population of θf∞
crete model estimating
The obtained solution with this approach determines the
identified model of the system. The best model is the 6
J(k)
6
J(k)

one that gives the lowest modeling error. However, with 5

0.2218
0.2218 5
0.3255

0.2218 0.3255

this approach, we can have multiple solutions, and then 4

32 34 36
4
30 35 40 45

multiple models, because genetic algorithms are non- 3 3

deterministic methods. 2 2

V. S IMULATION RESULTS FOR THE CONTINUOUS 1

k
1
k

MODEL 0
0 10 20 30 40 50
0
0 10 20 30 40 50

We choose a population of N = 30 individuals and (a) (b)

50 generations.
According to figure 2, we note that the incubator has
a time constant around the half of an hour, a temperature
θc∞ above 55◦ C in the heating phase, temperature θf∞
is smaller than 32◦ C and a delay less than 50 s. To
prouve the performance of the genetic algorithm, we
choose initial populations of the different parameters as
follows :
– Tc : between 1000s and 3000s
F IG . 5. Evolution of the criterion J : (a) in the heating phase ; (b) in
the cooling phase
The formulation of genetic algorithms is based on the
minimization of criterion J which represents the average
of the absolute values of estimation errors. Its evolution
reflects the quality of the estimation.
Figure 4 shows the good quality of the estimation
which gives an average absolute less than 0.3.

3
 θc∞ (k) In the heating phase :
80
⎞ ⎛
t − 35.4
60
40
−
20
k θ(t) = (58.7 − θ0 ) ⎝1 − e 1637 ⎠ + θ0 (8)
0
0 10 20 30 40 50
Tc (k)
3000
In the cooling phase :
2000 ⎞ ⎛
t − 8.6
k −
1000
0 10 20 30 40 50 θ(t) = (31.3 − θ0 ) ⎝1 − e 2129 ⎠ + θ0 (9)
τc (k)
100

50 Estimation results are given in figure 8.

k
0
0 10 20 30 40 50
55 ◦
temperature C

F IG . 6. Populations evolution θc∞ , Tc and τc in terms of generations. 50

45

θf∞ (k)
40 40

20
35
k
0
0 10 20 30 40 50
3000
Tf (k) 30

2000
Time(h)
25
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
k
1000
0 10 20 30 40 50
τf (k)
100
F IG . 8. Validation of identified continuous model (Continuous line :
measured temperature, Dashed line : estimated temperature).
50
k
0
0 10 20 30 40 50
VI. S IMULATION RESULTS FOR THE DISCRETE
MODEL
F IG . 7. Populations evolution of θf∞ , Tf and τf in terms of Figures 9-(a) and 9-(b) represent respectively initial
generations. populations of two parameters a1 and b1 in the cooling
and the heating phases. The number of population N is
chosen equal to 100.

Figures 6 and 7 represent respectively the evolution of 0 0.1

populations in terms of generations in the heating and −0.2

0.09

0.08

the cooling phases. The first generation represents the −0.4 0.07

initial population. −0.6

0.06

0.05
−0.8

The algorithm converges to the following results : −1

0.04

0.03

θf∞ = 31.3
0.02
– −1.2
0.01

– τf = 8.6s −1.4
0 50 100 150
0
0 50 100 150

– Tf = 2129s (a) (b)

– θc∞ = 58.7
F IG . 9. (a) Initial population of a1 ; (b) Initial population of b1
– τc = 35.4s
– Tc = 1637s
As shown in figure 9, the specific initial population
Finally, parametric estimation by genetic algorithms of a1 is chosen included between 0 and −1.2 and the
gives : initial population of b1 is chosen between 0 and 0.1.

4
 It is well known that a1 is slightly smaller than −1. 0
a1 (k)
0.1

0.09
b1 (k)

However, we have increased the margin of the initial −0.2

0.08

−0.4
population so that the algorithm converges. 0.07

0.06
−0.6
0.05
−0.8
0.04
4 5
1
(k)
J(k) −1 0.03
4.5
3.5 0.02
4 −1.2
3 0.01
3.5 k k
−1.4 0
2.5 0 50 100 150 0 50 100 150
3

2 2.5

2
(a) (b)
1.5
1.5
1
1
F IG . 12. Heating phase (a) : Population evolution of a1 in term of
0.5
0.5 generations, (b) : Population evolution of b1 in terms of generations
k k
0 0
0 50 100 150 0 50 100 150

(a) (b) 0
0.1
b1 (k)

a1 (k)
0.09

F IG . 10. (a) : Evolution of the inverse of the identifying error specific −0.2 0.08

to the heating curve (b) :Evolution of the criterion J. −0.4

0.07

0.06

−0.6 0.05

It is also well Known that the formulation of the −0.8

0.04

0.03

genetic algorithm is based on minimizing the criterion −1

0.02

J. Figures 10-(b) and 11-(b) show that this algorithm −1.2

k
0.01

0
k

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 50 100 150

converges, but this convergence can not give an idea of
(a) (b)
the estimation quality. For this, we compute the average
estimation error for each generation in order to evaluate F IG . 13. Cooling phase (a) : Population evolution of a1 in terms of
the obtained results. Figures 10-(a) and 10-(a) represent generations, (b) : Population evolution of b1 in terms of generations
the evolution of the inverse of the average of the absolute
values of the identification error in the heating phase. 55
From this figure, we notice that the identification error temperature ◦ C
is infinite in the first iteration but it is reduced to 0.28
50
for the heating phase and to 0.44 for the cooling phase.
The average of the absolute values of the identification
45
errors are expressed by :

ε(k) = 40

N  
1   


 θ m (nT e ) − a 1 (k)θ(T e (n − 1)) + b 1 (k)u(T e (n − 2)) 35
N n=1

with 30

 nTe ) = −a1 (k)θ k, Te (n−1) +b1 (k)u Te (n−2)

θ(k,
Time(h)
25
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

2.5 4
1
(k)
J(k) F IG . 14. Validation of identified discrete model. Continuous line :
3.5
2
measured temperature, Dashed line : estimated temperature
3

2.5
1.5

1
1.5 The parameter estimation by genetic algorithms gives
0.5
1
an identification error equal to 0.3675, and it gives the
k
0.5
k following results :
0 0
0 50 100 150 0 50 100 150
For the heating phase :
(a) (b)
F IG . 11. (a) : Evolution of the inverse of the identifying error specific θ(k) = −0.9945 θ(k − 1)+ 0.0055 u(k − 2)+e(k) (10)
to the cooling curve, (b) : Criterion evolution J
For the cooling phase :

5
 [19] K. De Jong, Learning with genetic algorithms : An overview,
θ(k) = −0.9957 θ(k − 1)+ 0.0043 u(k − 2)+e(k) (11) Mach. Learn., vol. 3, pp. 121-138, 1988.

VII. C ONCLUSION
The interest of this paper consists on the model
identification of a newborn incubator. Parameters of the
model have been optimized by genetic algorithms.
Two models have been identified. The first one is
continuous and the second one is discrete. Because of
the non-linearity of these models, two phases have been
considered : the heating phase for an increasing of the
temperature and the cooling phase for a decreasing of
the temperature. Obtained models have been validated
experimentally. we have found that the studied incubator
can be described by a delayed first order model.
Although the obtained model is simple and does not
motivate the use of such sophisticated methods, we found
it worth to apply the genetic method prior to obtaining a
probably fractional model for the heating system of the
incubator. This constitutes our future work.
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