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Edited by B. L. Turner II, Clark University, Worcester, MA, and approved July 11, 2007 (received for review March 12, 2007)
The articles in this special feature challenge the presumption that scholars can make simple, predictive models of social– ecological
systems (SESs) and deduce universal solutions, panaceas, to problems of overuse or destruction of resources. Moving beyond pana-
ceas to develop cumulative capacities to diagnose the problems and potentialities of linked SESs requires serious study of complex,
multivariable, nonlinear, cross-scale, and changing systems. Many variables have been identified by researchers as affecting the pat-
terns of interactions and outcomes observed in empirical studies of SESs. A step toward developing a diagnostic method is taken by
organizing these variables in a nested, multitier framework. The framework enables scholars to organize analyses of how attributes
of (i) a resource system (e.g., fishery, lake, grazing area), (ii) the resource units generated by that system (e.g., fish, water, fodder),
(iii) the users of that system, and (iv) the governance system jointly affect and are indirectly affected by interactions and resulting
outcomes achieved at a particular time and place. The framework also enables us to organize how these attributes may affect and
be affected by larger socioeconomic, political, and ecological settings in which they are embedded, as well as smaller ones. The
framework is intended to be a step toward building a strong interdisciplinary science of complex, multilevel systems that will enable
future diagnosticians to match governance arrangements to specific problems embedded in a social– ecological context.
What Can Be Done? that can address the generic nature periment with adaptive policies so as to
I
n the introduction to this special of the problems. Characteristically, gain feedback from a changing SES be-
feature, we call attention to per- these problems tend to be systems fore a severe transformation adversely
verse and extensive uses of policy problems, where aspects of behaviour overcomes them (23, 24).
panaceas in misguided efforts to are complex and unpredictable and
make social–ecological systems (SESs), where causes, while at times simple A Nested Framework for Analyzing
also called human–environment systems, (when finally understood), are always Interactions and Outcomes of
sustainable over time. It is not enough, multiple. They are non-linear in na- Linked SESs
however, just to call attention to the ture, cross-scale in time and in space, Moving beyond panaceas to develop
inadequacy of the panaceas that are pre- and have an evolutionary character. cumulative capacities to diagnose the
scribed as simple solutions to complex This is true for both natural and so- problems and potentialities of linked
SESs. Korten (1) long ago identified the cial systems. In fact, they are one sys- SESs requires serious study of the com-
danger of blueprint approaches to the tem, with critical feedbacks across plex, multivariable, nonlinear, cross-
governance of tough social–ecological temporal and spatial scales. scale, and changing SESs described by
problems and urged that policy makers Holling et al. (20). We need to clarify
The conceptual structure of these the structure of an SES so we under-
adopt a learning process rather than
problems is a rugged landscape with stand the niche involved and how a par-
imposing final solutions. Korten’s advice
many peaks and valleys. Finding higher ticular solution may help to improve
is similar to that of Walters (2, 3) and
peaks when the number of potential so- outcomes or make them worse. Also,
the emphasis on adaptive management
lutions is drastically reduced to a few solutions may not work the same way
in contemporary analyses of complex
‘‘optimal’’ strategies is grossly inade- over time. As structural variables
adaptive systems (4–6). Unfortunately,
the preference for simple solutions to quate for reaching creative and produc- change, participants need to have ways
complex governance problems continues tive solutions to challenging problems of learning and adapting to these
to be strong (7). (21). One can become fixated on a low changes.
To move beyond panaceas and build a conceptual hill by trying to optimize Many variables affect the patterns
solid field of sustainability science (8, 9), specific variables while overlooking bet- of interactions and outcomes observed
one needs to build on the work of schol- ter solutions involving ignored variables. in empirical studies. After undertaking
ars who have undertaken careful, well Instead, we need to recognize and un- a careful analysis of the research
documented and theoretically sound derstand the complexity to develop examining the factors likely to affect
studies of ecological systems, socioeco- diagnostic methods to identify combina- self-organization and robustness of
nomic systems, and linked SESs (10–17). tions of variables that affect the incen- common-property regimes, Agrawal
We should stop striving for simple an- tives and actions of actors under diverse (25) identified ⬎30 variables that had
swers to solve complex problems (18). governance systems (22). To do this we
The problems of overharvesting and need to examine the nested attributes of
misuse of ecological systems are rarely a resource system and the resource units Author contributions: E.O. contributed new reagents/
generated by that system that jointly af- analytic tools, analyzed data, and wrote the article.
attributable to a single cause (19).
Holling et al. (ref. 20, p. 352) identified fect the incentives of users within a set The author declares no conflict of interest.
the structure of the problems involved: of rules crafted by local, distal, or This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
nested governance systems to affect in- Abbreviations: GS, governance system; RS, resource system;
The answers are not simple because teractions and outcomes over time (see RU, resource user; SES, social– ecological system; U, user.
we have just begun to develop the Fig. 1). Furthermore, we need to enable *E-mail: ostrom@indiana.edu
concepts, technology and methods resource users and their officials to ex- © 2007 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA
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