3 Nov 15

Fall Semester
2015
Horst Rademacher
HH
Lect 17: Risk and
Consequences
Class Organization I

Homework # 2
has been posted last Friday

Due date:
Thursday, 5 Nov
by end of class

No exceptions
Hard copies only
Class organization II: Extra Credit

Choose any topic related to

Earthquakes and Seismology

Be Creative
It doesn’t have to be a written report

Add background stories, personal experiences,

reflect on the issues
Class organization III: Extra Credit

Seismicity reports:
Cut and paste from
USGS and news websites
is not enough

cite all relevant sources

add your name and GSI on front page
 Any
HH

questions?
Recap: Prediction

1 4

X
Recap: Prediction
Recap: Forecast
Overall Seismic Probabilities
Bay Area
Recap: Forecast

Probability
for each fault
in the Bay area
Recap: Forecast Vocabulary:

Odds = ranking due to betting,

no scientific rationale
Chance = pure luck, like in coin toss

Probability/Likelihood in EQ Science:

Based on best available knowledge, like

plate movements, prior EQ,
stress field, geologic setting
Recap: Forecast

Why 30 years?

Average duration of homeowner’s mortgage

 Any
HH

questions?
Seismic Risk:

Seismic Hazard: Vulnerability:

What Nature presents to us The Assets we put in Nature’s way

RISK
 Seismic Risk: Vulnerable Assets
Human life:
Fatalities, injuries

Nepal, M=7.8
25 Apr 2014
Seismic Risk: Vulnerable Assets
Deadliest Earthquakes

Between 1908-2010: >2 Million EQ Fatalities

Seismic Risk: Vulnerable Assets
Turkey
Dwellings

Single family residences

Apartment buildings

Loma Prieta

Concepcion, Chile
Seismic Risk: Vulnerable Assets
Emergency operations

Hospitals
Fire Station
Police stations
Emergency operation
centers

Sylmar

1971 San Fernando EQ

Olive View Hospital

Seismic Risk: Vulnerable Assets
Human existence:

Schools
Nursing homes
Grocery stores
Services:
Banks, Governments
Seismic Risk: Vulnerable Assets
Lifelines – Infrastructure

Road, Bridges network

electric power: Power lines and
Power plants
Drinking Water, Gas, Sewage
Phone - Internet
Seismic Risk:
Vulnerable Assets
Lifelines – Infrastructure

Trains, light rail

Oil pipelines
Harbor facilities
Seismic Risk: Vulnerable Assets
Business and Commerce
Office buildings, work places damaged
Factories need to be rebuild
(can be positive: look at Germany after WWII)

Direct economic losses:

Sales not conducted, loss of revenue
Wages not earned
Shortfall in taxes

Secondary economic losses:

Loss of market share
Disruption of international supply chain
can be positive in rich countries:
economic boom from rebuilding
 Any
HH

questions?
Mitigating Seismic Risk: Human Life
Reduction in loss of Human life:
Education, Exercises

EQ preparedness plan, emergency food etc.

More about that next week
Mitigating Seismic Risk: Dwellings
Single family residences
Apartment buildings
Mandatory building codes:
bolting frame
Shear wall to foundation
Mitigating Seismic Risk: Dwellings
 Mitigating Seismic Risk: Dwellings
One important goal
in retrofitting or new construction

Life safety

People survive the shaking

inside the building,
can get out after shaking is over

but building may suffer

strong structural damage
Mitigating Seismic Risk: Dwellings
Mitigating Seismic Risk: Dwellings
Alquist-Priolo Act
After 1971
San Fernando EQ

No building allowed
On an active fault

¼ mi distance
Disclosure
Mandated
when selling dwelling
Mitigating Seismic Risk:

Alquist-Priolo
Act
Mitigating Seismic Risk: Alquist-Priolo Act
Mitigating Seismic Risk: Alquist-Priolo Act
Can lead to major controversies:
Developers vs. Public
Mitigating Seismic Risk: California Bridges
Since 1971 almost
2200 Bridges retrofitted
cost > $ 2.5 billion

Average cost retrofit:

$ 31.71 / sq ft of bridge

Average cost of new bridge

$ 135 / sq ft.

Retrofit makes a lot of economic sense

Mitigating Seismic Risk: Lifelines
Transalaska Oil Pipeline
Mitigating Seismic Risk: Lifelines
Water
tunnel

BART
Mitigating Seismic Risk: Lifelines
80 year old Claremont Water Tunnel

13 inches
offset
Mitigating Seismic Risk: Lifelines
 Any
HH

questions?
Mitigating Seismic Risk:

25% of square footage on campus

needed retrofit

UC Berkeley spent
> $ 1.2 billion
to make campus EQ
resilient
1990-current

brochure is
uploaded to our
bcourses website
Mitigating Seismic Risk: Bracing Berkeley
University Hall
Mitigating Seismic Risk: Bracing Berkeley

Hearst Mining Building

Mitigating Seismic Risk: Bracing Berkeley
Hildebrand Hall
Mitigating Seismic Risk: Bracing Berkeley

Wurster Hall
 Any
HH

questions?
Mitigating Seismic Risk The Politics
Mitigating seismic risk doesn’t happen
in a political vacuum
Mitigating Seismic Risk The Politics

Convince politicians
that we have an EQ problem

BSL Researchers testifying

in front of the State Assembly
Mitigating Seismic Risk The Politics

Most money flows after major EQs

Northridge 1994:

Property damage: $20 billion

Economic loss: $29 billion

Afterwards FEMA spent $14 billion

A fraction of that could have made
Southern California more resilient
Mitigating Seismic Risk The Politics

After Napa EQ August 2014……

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AETCwL4
V6aQ&feature=youtu.be&t=17m28s
 Any
HH

questions?
Thursday:

Guest Lecture:
Dr. Lind Gee, USGS Menlo Park:
Worldwide seismic
Networks

Homework #2 is due
X