CONTENTS

TITLE PAGE NO
List of Figures ...............................................................................................(v)

List of Tables ............................................................................................ (viii)

Abstract .........................................................................................................(x)

1. INTRODUCTION............................................................................ 01

1.1 Trend Analysis ............................................................................. 01

1.2 Necessity of Trend Analysis ....................................................... 01

1.3 Background Information ............................................................. 02

1.4 Objectives of the Study ............................................................... 02

1.5 Study Area .................................................................................. 03

1.6 Monthly rainfall data Analysis .................................................. 05

1.7 Quarter year rainfall data Analysis ............................................ 17

2. LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................... 22

2.1 Literature Review......................................................................... 22

2.1.1 K.Balasubramani & K.Kumaraswamy, S.Sushant

“spatio-temporal analysis of Rainfall Distribution and
Variability in the twentieth century, over the Cauvery
basin, South India”, 2002 ........................................................ 22

2.1.2 A. Mondal, A. Mukhopadhyay & S.kundu “Rainfall

trend analysis by Mann-Kendall test: a case study of north-
eastern part of Cuttack district, Orissa” 2012 ......................... 24

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 2.1.3 R.P.Pandey, S.Chakraborty, U.C. Chaube, “Trend
and Variability Analysis of Rainfall Series at Seonath
river basin, Chhattisgarh (India)”, 2013.................................. 25

2.1.4 M. Begum and MD. A. Rahman, “Application of

non- parametric test for trend detection of rainfall in the
largest island of Bangladesh”, 2013 ........................................ 26

2.1.5 Arun Kumar Taxak, A.R.Murmkar, D.S. Araya,

Statistical Analysis of long term temporal trends of
precipitation and temperature in Wainganga sub-basin,
India, 2014 ............................................................................... 27

2.1.6 N.Ali & I.Ahmed, “Trend Analysis of Precipitation

data in Pakistan”, 2015 ............................................................ 29

2.1.7 Ganguly, P.Sharma & R.R. Chauduri, “Analysis of

Trend of the Precipitation Data: a case study of Kangra
district, Himachal Pradesh”, 2015........................................... 30

2.1.8 Kemal Saphoglu, “ Trend Analysis of streams in the

Western Mediterranean basin of Turkey”, 2015 ..................... 31

2.1.9 S. Swain, M.K. Verma & Manikant Verma “Impact

of climate variability over Mahanadi river basin”, 2015 ........ 33

3. METHODOLOGY ADOPTED .................................................. 35

3.1 Mann Kendall Test ............................................................ 35

3.1.1 Background and Purpose ..................................... 35

3.1.2 Assumptions and Requirements .......................... 35

3.1.3 Calculation of the Mann-Kendall Statistic (s) ..... 36

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 3.1.4 Calculation of Probability associated with the
Mann Kendall Statistic(s) ............................................. 37

3.1.5 Missing Data ........................................................ 43

3.2 Seasonal Mann Kendall Test............................................. 43

3.2.1 Background and Purpose ..................................... 43

3.2.2 Assumptions and Requirements .......................... 44

3.2.3 Notation ............................................................... 45

3.2.3 Procedure ............................................................. 46

3.3 Sen’s Slope Method .......................................................... 48

3.4 Data Calculations .............................................................. 50

3.4.1 Sample Problem : Rainfall of Nagpur ................ 50

3.4.2 Analysis For Mann Kendall Test Using Microsoft

Excel ............................................................................ 51

3.4.3 Analysis For Sen’s Slope Using Microsoft

Excel ............................................................................. 52

3.4.4 Analytical Solution For Mann Kendall Test ....... 53

3.4.5 Analysis of Sample Problem Using

XLSTAT 2015 .............................................................. 54

3.4.6 Analysis of Monthly Rainfall Data (1901-2014)

Using XLSTAT 2015: Analysis Of January ................ 56

3.4.7 Analysis of Monthly Rainfall Data (1901-2014)

Using XLSTAT 2015: Analysis Of February ............. 57

3.4.8 Analysis of Monthly Rainfall Data (1901-2014)

Using XLSTAT 2015: Analysis Of March ................. 59

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3.4.9 Analysis of Monthly Rainfall Data (1901-2014)
Using XLSTAT 2015: Analysis Of April .................... 61

3.4.10 Analysis of Monthly Rainfall Data (1901-2014)

Using XLSTAT 2015: Analysis Of May .................... 62

3.4.11 Analysis of Monthly Rainfall Data (1901-2014)

Using XLSTAT 2015: Analysis Of June .................... 64

3.4.12 Analysis of Monthly Rainfall Data (1901-2014)

Using XLSTAT 2015: Analysis Of July ..................... 66

3.4.13 Analysis of Monthly Rainfall Data (1901-2014)

Using XLSTAT 2015: Analysis Of August ................ 67

3.4.14 Analysis of Monthly Rainfall Data (1901-2014)

Using XLSTAT 2015: Analysis Of September ........... 69

3.4.15 Analysis of Monthly Rainfall Data (1901-2014)

Using XLSTAT 2015: Analysis Of October ............... 71

3.4.16 Analysis of Monthly Rainfall Data (1901-2014)

Using XLSTAT 2015: Analysis Of November ........... 72

3.4.17 Analysis of Monthly Rainfall Data (1901-2014)

Using XLSTAT 2015: Analysis Of December ........... 74

3.4.18 Analysis of Quarterly Rainfall Data (1901-2014)

Using XLSTAT 2015: Analysis of Spring Season ...... 76

3.4.19 Analysis of Quarterly Rainfall Data (1901-2014)

Using XLSTAT 2015: Analysis of Summer Season .... 77

3.4.20 Analysis of Quarterly Rainfall Data (1901-2014)

Using XLSTAT 2015: Analysis of Autumn Season .... 79

3.4.21 Analysis of Quarterly Rainfall Data (1901-2014)

Using XLSTAT 2015: Analysis of Winter Season ...... 81

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 3.4.22 Analysis of Annual Rainfall Data
(1901-2014) Using XLSTAT 2015:
Analysis of Annual Rainfall ......................................... 82
3.4.23 Seasonal Mann Kendall Test Analysis .............. 84
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION................................................... 85

4.1 Monthly Rainfall Trends ................................................... 85

4.2 Seasonal Rainfall Trends................................................... 86

4.3 Annual Rainfall Trends ..................................................... 89

5. CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................... 90

REFERENCES ........................................................................... 89

(v)
 LIST OF FIGURES

Figure Title of Figure Page. No.

No.

1 Map of Nagpur 4

5
2 Histogram of Rainfall (mm) in January for the Year
(1901-2014)
6
3 Histogram of Rainfall (mm) in February for the Year
(1901-2014)
7
4 Histogram of Rainfall (mm) in March for the Year
(1901-2014)
8
5 Histogram of Rainfall (mm) in April for the Year
(1901-2014)
9
6 Histogram of Rainfall (mm) in May for the Year
(1901-2014)
10
7 Histogram of Rainfall (mm) in June for the Year
(1901-2014)
11
8 Histogram of Rainfall (mm) in July for the Year
(1901-2014)
12
9 Histogram of Rainfall (mm) in August for the Year
(1901-2014)
13
10 Histogram of Rainfall (mm) in September for the Year
(1901-2014)
14
11 Histogram of Rainfall (mm) in October for the Year
(1901-2014)
15
12 Histogram of Rainfall (mm) in November for the Year
(1901-2014)
16
13 Histogram of Rainfall (mm) in December for the Year
(1901-2014)

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 17
14 Histogram of Spring Rainfall (mm) for the Year
(1901-2014)
18
15 Histogram of Summer Rainfall (mm) for the Year
(1901-2014)
19
16 Histogram of Autumn Rainfall (mm) for the Year
(1901-2014)
20
17 Histogram of Winter Rainfall (mm) for the Year
(1901-2014)
21
18 Histogram of Annual Rainfall (mm) for the Year
(1901-2014)
22
19 Histogram of Zmk vs months for Cauvery river basin

23
20 Histogram of Zmk vs season for Cauvery river basin

24
21 Histogram of Zmk vs months for Birupa River

25
22 Histogram of Zmk vs season for Seonath River Basin

26
23 Histogram of Zmk vs months for Bhola, Bangladesh

28
24 Histogram of Zmk vs Monsoon for Wainganga
Region(1901-1948)
28
25 Histogram of Zmk vs Monsoon for Wainganga
Region(1901-1948)
29
26 Histogram of Zmk vs months for Isparta

31
27 Histogram of Zmk vs months for Dharamshala

32
28 Histogram of Zmk vs months for Burdur

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 32
29 Histogram of Zmk vs months for Isparata

33
30 Histogram of Zmk vs months for Raipur district,
Chhattisgarh
85
31 Histogram of Monthly Rainfall (mm) vs Time in years
(1901-2014)
86
32 Histogram of Seasonal Rainfall (mm) vs Time in years
(1901-2014)
87
33 Histogram of Spring (dep. From mean) Rainfall(mm) vs
Time in years (1901-2014)
87
34 Histogram of summer Rainfall (mm) vs Time in years
(1901-2014)
88
35 Histogram of Autumn (Dep. From mean) Rainfall (mm)
vs Time in years (1901-2014)
88
36 36 Histogram of Winter (Dep. From mean) Rainfall
(mm) vs Time in years (1901-2014)
89
37 Histogram of Rainfall (mm) vs Time in years (1901-
2014)
89
38 Histogram of Annual (Dep. From mean) Rainfall (mm)
vs Time in years (1901-2014)

(viii)
 LIST OF TABLES

Table .No. Table Title Page. No

1 Cumulative Probabilities for negative z-values 38

2 Cumulative Probabilities for positive z-values 40

3 Calculation of Zs* 42

4 Relation of P with the number of Data Points 43

5 Sample Problem: Rainfall of Nagpur 50

6 Analysis for Mann Kendall’s Test using Microsoft 51

Excel

7 Analysis for Sen’s Slope using Microsoft Excel 52

8 Analytical Solution for Mann Kendall Test 53

9 Analysis of Sample Problem Using XLSTAT 2015 54

10 Analysis of Rainfall data for January (1901-2014) 56

using XLSTAT 2015

11 Analysis of Rainfall data for February (1901-2014) 57

using XLSTAT 2015

12 Analysis of Rainfall data for March (1901-2014) using 59

XLSTAT 2015

13 Analysis of Rainfall data for April (1901-2014) using 61

XLSTAT 2015

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14 Analysis of Rainfall data for May (1901-2014) using 62

XLSTAT 2015

15 Analysis of Rainfall data for June (1901-2014) using 64

XLSTAT 2015

16 Analysis of Rainfall data for July (1901-2014) using 66

XLSTAT 2015

17 Analysis of Rainfall data for August (1901-2014) using 67

XLSTAT 2015

18 Analysis of Rainfall data for September (1901-2014) 69

using XLSTAT 2015

19 Analysis of Rainfall data for October (1901-2014) 71

using XLSTAT 2015

20 Analysis of Rainfall data for November (1901-2014) 72

using XLSTAT 2015

21 Analysis of Rainfall data for December (1901-2014) 74

using XLSTAT 2015

22 Analysis of Rainfall data for Spring Season (1901- 76

2014) using XLSTAT 2015

23 Analysis of Rainfall data for Summer Season (1901- 77

2014) using XLSTAT 2015

24 Analysis of Rainfall data for Autumn Season (1901- 79

2014) using XLSTAT 2015

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25 Analysis of Rainfall data for Winter Season (1901- 81

2014) using XLSTAT 2015

26 Analysis of Annual Rainfall data (1901-2014) using 82

XLSTAT 2015

27 Seasonal Mann Kendall Test Analysis 84

(xi)