TREND ANALYSIS FOR PRECIPITATION

OF NAGPUR, MAHARASHTRA
Dissertation submitted to
Visvesvaraya National Institute of Technology, Nagpur
In partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of
BACHELOR OF ENGINEERING

In
CIVIL ENGINEERING

By
ABHISHEK CHAUMAL
SANJAY KUMAR BAJIYA
Under the guidance of
PROF. A. D. GHARE
DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
VISVESVARAYA NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY,
NAGPUR-440010
(MAY-2017)

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 VISVESVARAYA NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF
TECHNOLOGY, NAGPUR-440010

Declaration
The dissertation entitled “Trend Analysis for Precipitation of Nagpur” is our own work
carried out under the guidance of Prof. A. D. Ghare, Professor, Department of Civil
Engineering, VNIT, Nagpur.
This work in the same form or in any other form is not submitted for the award of any
degree/diploma to any other institute/university.
ABHISHEK CHAUMAL
(BT13CIV001)

SANJAY KUMAR BAJIYA

(BT13CIV061)

KIRTI JAIN
(BT13CIV032)

HARMEET SINGH WHAN

(BT13CI024)

DEPARTMNET OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

V. N. I. T. NAGPUR

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 VISVESVARAYA NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF
TECHNOLOGY, NAGPUR-440010

CERTIFICATE
This is to certify that the dissertation
“Trend Analysis for Precipitation of Nagpur”
Has been successfully completed in the session 2016-2017 in a satisfactory manner as a
fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of
“Bachelor of technology in civil engineering”

Prof. A. D. Ghare Dr. A. D. Ghare

Project Guide Professor & Head
Dept. of Civil Engg.
V.N.I.T. Nagpur

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 Acknowledgement

Success is never a single man’s entity. This dissertation would not have been a real fulfillment without
the backing and cooperation from various individuals through various mean. It is our pleasure to thank all those
who made this thesis possible.

In the first place we would like to record our deepest appreciation and gratitude to our project guide Prof.
A. D. Ghare, Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, VNIT, Nagpur, for his invaluable guidance and
support throughout the project work. The present form of the work is all about his expertise in a vast domain and
sincere desire to bring out the best of the student’s capabilities. Without his guidance and persistence help this
dissertation would have not been possible. We are indebted to him more than he knows.

We are also thankful to our fellow B.Tech students, well-wishers and all those who directly or indirectly
contributed to the successful realization of this dissertation, and express my apology to not being mentioned
personally all of them.

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 CONTENTS
PROJECT DISCRIPTION PAGE NO.
1) ABSRACT 1
2) INTRODUCTION 1
2.1 NECESSITY OF TREND ANALYSIS 1
2.2 TREND ANALYSIS 1
3) BACKGROUND & LITERATURE REVIEW 2
3.1 A. Ganguly, R.R. Chauduri & P.Sharma -2015 2
3.2 A. MONDAL, S.KUNDU & A. MUKHOPADHYAY-2012 3
3.3 ARUN KUMAR TAXAK, A.R.MURMKAR, D.S.ARAYA -2014 3
3.4 KEMAL SAPHOGLU -2015 4
3.5 Md. A. Rahman and M. Begum-2013 6
3.6 N.ALI & I.AHMED-2015 6
3.7 S.CHAKRABORTY, R.P.PANDEY, U.C.CHAUBE -2013 7
3.8 S.SUSHANT, K.BALASUBRAMANI & K.KUMARASWAMY 8
3.9 S. Swain, M. K. Verma & Manikant verma -2015 9

4) STUDY AREA AND DATA 10

4.1 MAP OF NAGPUR TAHSIL 11
4.2 MONTHLY RAINFALL DATA AND NORMAL DISTRIBUTION 12
PATERN ANALYSIS
4.3 QUARTER YEAR RAINFALL DATA AND NORMAL 24
DISTRIBUTION PATERN ANALYSIS
4.4 ANNUL RAINFALL DATA AND NORMAL DISTRIBUTION 28
PATERN ANALYSIS

5) METHODOLOGY 29
5.1 MANN KENDALL TEST 29
5.11 BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE 29
5.12 ASSUMPTIONS AND REQUIREMENTS 29

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 5.13 CALCULATION OF THE MANN-KENDALL STATISTIC (S) 29
5.14 CALCULATION OF PROBABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH 30
THE MANNKENDALL STATISTIC(S)
5.15 MISSING DATA 35

5.2 SEASONAL MANN KENDALL TEST 35

5.21 BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE 35
5.22 ASSUMPTIONS AND REQUIREMENTS 35
5.23 NOTATION 36
5.24 PROCEDURE 36

5.3 SEN’S SLOPE METHOD 38

6) DATA CALCULATION 40
6.1 SAMPLE PROBLEM 40
6.11 RAINFALL OF NAGPUR- 40
6.12 ANALYSIS FOR MAN KENDALL TEST BY USING EXCEL 40
6.13 ANALYSIS FOR SEN’S SLOPE BY USING EXCEL 41
6.14 ANALYTICAL SOLUTION FOR MANN KENDALL TEST 42
6.15 ANALYSIS OF SAMPLE PROBLEM USING XLSTAT 2015 42

6.2 ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY RAINFALL DATA (1901-2014) 44

USING XLSTAT 2015
6.2 1 ANALYSIS OF JANUARY 44
6.2 2 ANALYSIS FOR FEBRUARY 45
6.2 3 ANALYSIS FOR MARCH 46
6.2 4 ANALYSIS FOR APRIL 47
6.2 5 ANALYSIS OF MAY 48
6.2 6 ANALYSIS OF JUNE 49
6.2 7 ANALYSIS OF JULY 50
6.2 8ANALYSIS OF AUGUST 51
6.2 9 ANALYSIS OF SEPETEMBER 52
6.2 10 ANALYSIS OF OCTOBER 53
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 6.2 11 ANALYSIS OF NOVEMBER 54
6.2 12 ANALYSIS OF DECEMBER 55

6.3 ANALYSIS OF QUARTER YEAR RAINFALL DATA 56

(1901-2014) USING XLSTAT 2015
6.3 1 ANALYSIS OF SPRING SEASON 57
6.3 2 ANALYSIS OF SUMMER SEASON 58
6.3 3 ANALYSIS OF AUTUMN SEASON 59
6.3 4 ANALYSIS OF WINTER SEASON 60
6.4 ANALYSIS OF ANNUAL RAINFALL DATA (1901-2014) 60
USING XLSTAT 2015
6.5 SEASONAL MANN KENDALL TEST ANALYSIS 61

7) RESULT 61

7.1 MONTHLY RAINFALL TRENDS 61

7.2 SASONAL RAINFALL TRENDS 62

7.3 ANNUAL RAINFALL TEST 64

8) CONCLUSION 64

9) REFERENCE 65

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