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Part 1 - Open to the Public ITEM NO.

REPORT OF DEPUTY CITY MAYOR


TO
CABINET
ON 8 MAY 2018

TITLE: Boundary review – Council Size

RECOMMENDATIONS:

That Cabinet endorse the draft submission attached.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

This report outlines the purpose of the boundary review, its timetable and introduces
the submission.

BACKGROUND DOCUMENTS:

Local Government Boundary Commission for England, technical guidance


http://s3-eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/lgbce/data/assets/pdf_file/0006/10410/techincal-
guidance-2014.pdf

KEY DECISION: NO

DETAILS:

1.0 Reason for the boundary review


1.1 The Local Government Boundary Commission for England’s (LGBCE) review
of Salford’s council size started in 2018 with all out elections due to take place
in 2020.
1.2 The review was triggered due to the number of wards with electoral
imbalances across the city, and therefore an unfair representation at local
government elections. In five of the 20 wards, the size of electorate has a
variance greater than +/- 10% compared to the average; in Ordsall the
variance is 33%.
Timetable

2.0 The LGBCE briefed councillors on the imminent electoral review before a
meeting of Council on 15 November 2017. The review starts with submissions
on council size, in terms of the total number of wards and total number of
councillors, being made to the LGBCE by the council and other political
groups. The deadline for submissions is end of May 2018.
2.1 The LGBCE will analyse the submissions on council size and then open a
period of consultation on warding patterns lasting until the end of September
2018. The LGBCE will ask for views on:
· the number of and names of wards or divisions;
· where the boundaries between wards or divisions should lie; and
· the number of councillors for each ward or division.
2.2 The feedback received will then shape the LGBCE’s draft recommendations
for new electoral arrangements. The LGBCE will make draft recommendations
on the number of wards and councillors based on the submissions and
feedback from the consultation.
2.3 There will be another consultation period from November through to the end of
January 2019 to gain feedback on what the public think of the LGBCE’s plans
for Salford. If there is strong evidence against the proposals then the LGBCE
may alter their recommendations. If these alterations are significant and the
LGBCE lacks sufficient evidence of local opinion on these alterations, it will
then reopen consultation on revised draft recommendations. In cases where
additional consultation is required it is often limited to a specific geographical
area of the local authority.
2.4 The LGBCE will then issue their final recommendations on council size. These
recommendations will then be put before Parliament to be made law.

3.0 Council size submission


3.1 The attached draft submission is proposed to be taken to full Council, seeking
agreement it is adopted as the Council’s formal submission to the LGBCE. It
provides the LGBCE with a view on the appropriate council size and
supporting evidence across the following three broad areas (as stated in the
LGBCE guidance on council size for local authority elected members and
staff):
· Governance and decision making – determining the role of councillors
in decision making, and how work and responsibilities are distributed
across the council.
· Scrutiny functions – the role of councillors in holding decision makers to
account and to ensure that the council can discharge its responsibilities
to outside bodies.
· Representative role of councillors – assessing how councillors
represent and provide leadership in their communities and how this
affects workload and responsibilities.
3.2 This document does not cover ward boundaries as this will be considered later
on in the process.

3.3 The development of the attached draft has been overseen by a small working
group comprising both Deputy City Mayor’s, Cllr Jolley (Chair of Overview and
Scrutiny), and Cllr’s Walsh, Lancaster and Ferguson. The attached draft
council size submission will be taken for approval through Cabinet and Council
to become the Council’s formal submission.

KEY COUNCIL POLICIES: Salford City Council’s Constitution, City Mayor’s Scheme
of Delegation

EQUALITY IMPACT ASSESSMENT AND IMPLICATIONS: The ability of councillors


to represent the residents of their ward effectively will be affected by the number of
people they represent and the cohesion of the communities served. Changes to ward
size and boundaries along with the number of councillors covering each ward will
positively or negatively impact on that effectiveness.

ASSESSMENT OF RISK: N/a

LEGAL IMPLICATIONS Supplied by: N/a

FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS: Councillors are paid allowances and in lead positions


provided with officer support so increases or decreases to the number of councillors
would have a financial impact.

PROCUREMENT IMPLICATIONS: NA

HR IMPLICATIONS Supplied by: N/a

OTHER DIRECTORATES CONSULTED: N/a

CONTACT OFFICERS: Jacquie Russell, Assistant Director Strategy and Policy,


0161 793 3577

WARDS TO WHICH REPORT RELATES: All


Council size submission May 2018

Electoral review of Salford City


Council

Submission on council size, to be submitted to the local Government


Boundary Commission for England
Council size submission May 2018

Contents
1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 4

Methodology ............................................................................................................. 4

2 Salford: A Modern Global City ....................................................................................... 6

3 Salford Today ................................................................................................................ 9

Population Growth..................................................................................................... 9

Continuing Population Growth ................................................................................ 10

An Increasingly Diverse City ................................................................................... 11

A City of Contrasts .................................................................................................. 15

4 Governance and Decision Making ............................................................................... 17

Context.................................................................................................................... 17

A Directly Elected City Mayor .................................................................................. 17

The Council ............................................................................................................. 18

Leadership - Cabinet ............................................................................................... 19

Leadership - Role of Lead Members ....................................................................... 19

The Role of a Councillor.......................................................................................... 25

Regulatory Panels and Other Committees .............................................................. 26

Greater Manchester and City Partnerships ............................................................. 27


Council size submission May 2018

Other partnership working ........................................................................................... 30

Community Decision Making ....................................................................................... 31

5 Scrutiny Functions ....................................................................................................... 33

6 Representational Role of Councillors .......................................................................... 36

7 The Future – Changing Role for Council and Councillors............................................ 38

Greater Manchester ................................................................................................ 38

Growth and Working with Business......................................................................... 39

Health and Social Care Integrated Commissioning ................................................. 40

21st Century Councillor ........................................................................................... 40

8 Conclusion and Recommendations ............................................................................. 42

Appendices

Appendix 1 Member Survey Questionnaire

Appendix 2 Forecasting Technical report

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1 Introduction
1.1 The Local Government Boundary Commission for England (LGBCE) review of
Salford’s council size started in 2018, with all out elections due to take place in 2020.

1.2 The review was triggered due to the number of wards with electoral imbalances
across the city, and therefore an unfair representation at local government elections.
In five of the 20 wards, the size of electorate has a variance greater than +/- 10%
compared to the average; in Ordsall the variance is 33%.

1.3 This document is Salford City Council’s council size submission, which provides the
LGBCE with the Council’s view on the appropriate council size and supporting
evidence across the following three broad areas (as stated in the LGBCE guidance
on council size for local authority elected members and staff):

· Governance and decision making – determining the role of councillors in


decision making, and how work and responsibilities are distributed across the
Council.

· Scrutiny functions – the role of councillors in holding decision makers to


account and to ensure that the Council can discharge its responsibilities to
outside bodies.

· Representative role of councillors – assessing how councillors represent and


provide leadership in their communities and how this affects workload and
responsibilities.

Methodology

1.4 The development of this submission was led by a political steering group, chaired by
the Statutory Deputy Mayor.

1.5 The submission draws on information from documentary sources such as the
Council’s constitution, and from discussion with elected members and senior officers.

1.6 During March 2018, councillors were asked to complete a survey to better
understand their workloads relating to governance and decision making, scrutiny,
and the representative duties of councillors. The survey also sought to understand
the way councillors work with the public and with partner organisations across the
city. A copy of the survey is attached at Appendix 1.

1.7 The survey also asked councillors for their views on how their role had developed
and changed over time.

1.8 Forty eight councillors responded to the survey, an overall response rate of 80%.
90% of Labour Councillors responded to the survey.

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Council size submission May 2018

1.9 Additionally, six councillors drawn from different roles also completed a more
detailed journal that documented the demands on their time during a specific week in
March 2018.

1.10 The findings from both the survey and completed journals are reported throughout
this submission.

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2 Salford: A Modern Global City


2.1 Salford is a rejuvenated city. The decision in 1983 to invest in the transformation of
the city’s industrial Docks began an extensive, long running and expansive
programme of reimagining the canal side, creating what is now the Salford Quays –
an international and national home for the arts, culture, waterside living and a new
economy. The physical transformation of the Quays is not the only change in the
city. Over the past decade other areas of the city have also undergone a physical
transformation, the city’s economy has strengthened, supported by the growth in key
sectors, the population has continued to grow, and the quality of the arts, cultural,
sporting and community offers is now world class.

2.2 The city now boasts a world class hospital, a leading university, and strong housing,
cultural and leisure offers. All of these continue to attract a growing number of
people to Salford.

2.3 There is more that can be done. There are ambitious plans to create a ‘Better and
Fairer Salford’. The current exceptional levels of growth are supported by three of
the strongest investment opportunities in the Greater Manchester region:

· City Centre Salford: the level of ambition in City Centre Salford is already
evidenced by a strong development pipeline. Over the next 25 years there is
the potential to grow significantly with up to 12,500 new jobs, 120,000 m 2 of
employment floor space, 14,000 new homes and 20,000 new residents.

· The Quays and Media City UK: one of the UKs most successful
regeneration projects, northern home to the BBC and ITV. Media City is one
of the leading digital, creative and technology clusters in Europe. Future
phases between now and 2030 will see further investment of up to £1bn,
doubling the current size of Media City UK.

· Greater Manchester Western Gateway: exploiting the opportunity to create


a tri-modal interchange that will transform the way goods are transported not
just in the North West but across the Northern Powerhouse. Port Salford will
be the UKs first tri-modal port facility with the potential to create up to 10,000
jobs as the major distribution hub comes on stream.

2.4 This unprecedented private and public investment over the last ten years is
transforming Salford from its industrial roots. The population of Salford Quays, where
MediaCityUK is based, has increased from 6,000 to 7,800 in just five years (2011 –
2016). Employment in Salford Quays has increased from 19,000 jobs in 2003 to
26,000 in 2016. As a result, more people than ever are choosing Salford as a place
to live, work, invest and visit. Salford’s economy is growing well above regional and
national averages and is outperforming both London and Manchester to become the
UK’s hot spot for starting a new business. With a strong cultural and tourism offer, a
renowned heritage and huge swathes of beautiful green spaces, the city has
something for everyone.

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Council size submission May 2018

2.5 In addition to investment opportunities listed above, there are other significant
developments such as –

· Royal Horticultural Society (RHS) Garden Bridgewater – due to open in 2019


as the RHS’s fifth garden in the country and with the potential to become the
largest visitor attraction in Greater Manchester

· The Landing – in partnership with the Council, gives digital SMEs and micro-
businesses a place to work alongside large media and technology
organisations, allowing them to be part of and benefit from the rapidly growing
community at MediaCityUK.

2.6 Driven by these and other investment opportunities, it is expected that Salford will
continue to see economic and physical transformation across the city. Over the next
decade, growth is expected to result in an additional 20,000 residents, a growth of
8%, well above both the Greater Manchester and national averages. GVA will grow
by £2billion, with 15,000 new jobs created.

2.7 Despite this success – and the transformation of the city’s economic future – Salford
remains a city of contrasts. Salford is ranked 22 in the Index of Multiple Deprivation,
and over a quarter of the city’s lower super output areas are in the most deprived
10% LSOAs nationally. Deprivation is concentrated in wards which cover Central
Salford (also the area with some of the highest levels of growth) and in Little Hulton.
Life expectancy for both men and women in the city remains lower than nationally,
childhood obesity in the city is increasing and despite recent improvements around a
quarter of children in Salford are growing up in poverty.

2.8 The city has realised and embraced the need for active local leadership – particularly
by the elected City Mayor and City Council – first, to ensure that local assets are
properly recognised, cultivated and protected. And second, to ensure that all
institutions come together to deliver the shared vision to create a ‘Better and Fairer
Salford’ for all of residents. The City Mayor has brought partners together to harness
collective energy behind eight strategic priorities – the Great Eight.

· Tackling poverty and homelessness

· Maximising social value in everything we do

· Improving education and skills

· Transforming health and social care

· A new approach to affordable housing

· Place based inclusive economic growth

· Improving transport connectivity

· Governing the council as a transparent and effective organisation

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2.9 Delivering against these core priorities will require the sustained commitment and
partnership between councillors, partners in the private, public and voluntary and
social enterprise sectors, and the city’s residents. It is the only way to deliver real
change for the city – and will take time and ongoing commitment.

2.10 At the same time, councillors are operating in an increasingly complex environment.
The election of the Greater Manchester Mayor and increased devolution of
responsibilities to Greater Manchester, and the Greater Manchester Combined
Authority, is fundamentally changing the way the council works in areas of economic
development, transport, work and skills, planning, policing and more recently health
and social care.

2.11 The influence and remit of councillors as leaders of place and representatives of their
communities is fundamentally changing – creating wider influence and
responsibilities.

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3 Salford Today

Population Growth

3.1 Salford’s last council size review was in 2002 – and in the fourteen years to 2016 the
city’s population has grown significantly. The number of people living in the city
increased from 216,100 to 248,100 over that time period – a growth of 14.8%. This
is higher than the England rate of 11.2%, and the second highest rate of growth in
Greater Manchester. The growing population reflects the success of the Council’s
ambition to attract investment, grow new business opportunities, and to create jobs.

3.2 The electorate size has also grown over the same time period, with 176,119 electors
in March 2018, compared with 160,700 in 2001, a growth of 10%.

3.3 The city’s population has grown across all areas of the city, however, the highest
growth has been concentrated in wards that adjoin the regional centre and in
surrounding areas. Ordsall has seen a 168% increase in its population between
2001 and 2016, increasing from 6,400 to 18,000 residents. Broughton has seen its
population increase by 37%, from 11,500 to 16,500 residents.

Figure 1 - Salford Ward Population Change in Number between 2004-2016

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Council size submission May 2018

Continuing Population Growth

3.4 Detailed forecasts undertaken by Salford City Council show that between 2015 and
2024, the adult population is set to grow by 20%, and increase of around 39,000
people. The electorate is estimated to grow by 19%, an increase of 32,000 people.
This increase is much greater than that seen across England and Greater
Manchester.

3.5 Almost half this growth will be concentrated in Ordsall, which will grow from around
14,000 to just over 33,000 (see Table 1 and Figure 2 below)

Table 1 - 2024 Population & Electorate Projections by 2018 Wards

Expected variance of electorate Expected Expected Estimated


in current electoral wards number of number of variance
2015-2024 adults 2024 electors 2024 (electors) 2024
Ordsall 33,139 26,184 +158.6%
Irwell Riverside 14,325 11,670 +15.3%
Broughton 12,308 10,267 +1.4%
Pendlebury 11,136 9,983 -1.4%
Little Hulton 11,000 9,835 -2.9%
Weaste & Seedley 10,845 9,582 -5.4%
Langworthy 11,655 9,562 -5.6%
Walkden North 10,763 9,549 -5.7%
Eccles 10,662 9,344 -7.7%
Winton 10,421 9,261 -8.5%
Walkden South 10,066 9,215 -9.0%
Swinton North 10,010 9,003 -11.1%
Kersal 10,235 8,954 -11.6%
Barton 10,996 9,458 -6.6%
Swinton South 9,882 8,849 -12.6%
Claremont 9,680 8,763 -13.4%
Worsley 9,485 8,691 -14.2%
Cadishead 9,573 8,668 -14.4%
Boothstown & Ellenbrook 8,870 8,216 -18.8%
Irlam 8,100 7,430 -26.6%

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Figure 2 - 2024 Projected Electorate Variance by 2018 Wards

3.6 The growth forecasts incorporated past and current demographic and migration
trends, as well as considering all of the known housing developments. Demographic
information was used to segment the population and predict voter registration rates,
in order to predict the future size of the electorate.

3.7 The direction of travel indicates that over the next decade, Salford will see its:

· GVA grow by £2 billion (35.2%), above the GM (30.8%) and national (31.3%)
averages.

· Number of jobs grow by 15,000 jobs (10.6%), above the GM (6.4%) and
national (6%) averages.

· Private sector investment grow by a further £3.9 billion.

An Increasingly Diverse City

3.8 Overall Salford has a younger population than England. One in five (50,000 people)
of everyone living in Salford is aged under 16 and one in every 15 (16,000 people) is
aged over-75. Salford has a high proportion of younger adults, with around a third of
the population aged 20-39 years old compared to just over a quarter nationally. This
age group has increased by 16,000 (26%) since the last boundary review in 2002.
This is much higher than the England and the Greater Manchester proportion (see
Figure 3)

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3.9 Half of everyone in Salford is aged under 35 years old (this is called the median
age). Worsley has the oldest population in Salford, half of everyone in this ward is
aged over 44 years. Four other wards have a median age of 40 years or higher
(Claremont, Eccles, Boothstown and Ellenbrook and Walkden South). The youngest
ward is Irwell Riverside with half its population aged under 28 years. Three other
wards have a median age no greater than 30 years, all in the East of the city
(Ordsall, Broughton, Kersal).

3.10 A rise in birth rate, along, with an increase in migration has led to increased and on-
going demand for school places. Salford began to experience increased demand for
primary places in late 2010. Since 2011, with the expansion of existing schools, the
local authority has created an additional 5,000 primary school places (the equivalent
of twenty four 1 Form Entry primary schools). Whilst Salford has seen a small
increase in secondary pupil numbers this has not been as dramatic as that
experienced across the primary sector. However, as the growth Salford has seen at
primary school level begins to feed through to the secondary sector, there will be the
need to create additional spaces. The scale of new housing development that
Salford is planning will create an additional requirement for pupil places over and
above this, and taken together will require significant further expansion across both
the primary and secondary sectors. The direction of Government policy and the
associated measures to widen choice in education will also have a key bearing on
the future landscape of education provision within the city.

3.11 As life expectancy increases, the proportion of older people will also increase. It is
projected that the number of over-75s will increase by two-thirds over 25 years,
reaching 27,000 by 2039.

Figure 3 - 2016 Residential population by 5-year age band and gender - with reference populations

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3.12 Salford has a rich and diverse community life. The city has well established Jewish
and Yemini communities and has attracted new and emerging communities from a
wide range of backgrounds. Salford has seen inward migration from eastern
European countries, particularly in to East Salford, Claremont and Weaste. There
has been dispersal of asylum seekers in Salford, for example Somali people, which
has meant councillors are seeing more queries about immigration and asylum
matters in surgeries. Established communities such as the Orthodox Jewish
community in Kersal and Higher Broughton have grown in numbers meaning greater
need for school places for example.

3.13 In 2016, 14.4% (33,600) of the city’s residents were from a BME background,
compared to 5.5% in 2001. However, the distribution of people from BME
backgrounds is not uniform across the city (see Figure 4). The BME population is
higher in certain wards such as Broughton (30%), Ordsall (30%), Irwell Riverside
(27.5%) and Kersal (24%).

Figure 4 - Percentage of People who are Black or Minority Ethnic (BME), 2011

3.14 Numerous faiths in Salford have also increased notably in size. Between 2001 and
2011, although the number of people ‘declining to answer the question’ or stating
their faith as Christian decreased, in contrast the number of people describing their
religion as Muslim, Other religion, No religion, Hindu, or Buddhist all increased by
greater than 100% and at faster rates than seen across both Greater Manchester
and England.

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3.15 The average percentage of households in Salford without any speakers of English as
a main language was 5% in 2011 (5,196 households) compared to 4.4% in Greater
Manchester and England averages. However this is concentrated in particular wards;
the percentage of households where no people in the household have English as a
main language was 14.3% (844 households) in Broughton and 13.7% (1,104) in
Ordsall and 10.7% (559 households) in Irwell Riverside. These changes to
communities make different demands on councillors in the city and in particular in
wards with a variety of or new communities.

3.16 The growing diversity of Salford brings increasing challenges to the council and
different demands on councillors who must effectively represent the diverse needs
and interests of all their constituents.

“My ward is large geographically and very diverse in terms of affluence/poverty and
ethnicity and orthodox religious belief, it’s a complex area to cover, very large in
every way to cover with an increasing population.”

“Have increased contact with targeted minority and vulnerable communities -


African, Muslim and Orthodox Jewish communities”

3.17 The gender split of councillors is currently 72% male councillors to 28% female
councillors. The Cabinet and Executive Support has a split of 62% male to 38%
female councillors. This cabinet has its first female Statutory Deputy City Mayor.

3.18 Councillors tend to be 55 or older with nearly 60% in this age bracket and just over a
third 65 or older.

3.19 Around 40% of councillors are in employment, however the Council does not hold
information on whether this is full or part time employment. The following sections of
this report describe the significant demands that are placed on the councillor, which
helps to explain why people find this difficult to balance with employment
responsibilities.

A City of Contrasts

3.20 Salford also remains a city of contrasts, with some of the most prosperous and
deprived wards in the country. With the Council's core funding from central
government cut by 43% since 2010, Salford has had to develop radical new ways of
working with its partners, residents and vibrant voluntary and community sector to
make the best use of the city’s collective resources.1

3.21 Salford was ranked 22nd most deprived local authority in England in 20152, although
this was an improvement from 18th placing in the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD)
2010 and 12th place in IMD 2004. Over a quarter (28.7%) of Salford's Lower Super
Output Areas (LSOAs) are in the most deprived 10% of LSOA's in England. Areas of
deprivation are concentrated in wards which cover Central Salford (wards with some
of the highest growth) and Little Hulton2.

1 Welcome to Salford (LGA Peer Challenge)


2 2015 IMD
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Figure 5 - Political Representation in Salford and Overall Index of Deprivation - England Rank for LSOA's
in Salford 2015

3.22 Salford ranks 7th most deprived LA in England on the Health Deprivation and
Disability Index5, one of the domains in the IMD. .Life expectancy for men and
women in Salford is 76.8 years and 81.0 years respectively (2014/16). For men this
is the 23rd lowest in the UK, and for women is the 30th lowest. Childhood obesity is
increasing (24% in Year 6 in 2016) and despite recent improvements around a
quarter of children in Salford are growing up in poverty.

3.23 Levels of disability and poor health are high in Salford. The proportion of people
reporting ‘day-to-day activities limited a lot’ is around a third higher than the national
level. Similarly the proportion of people reporting bad or very bad health is over a
third higher in Salford. Little Hulton, Langworthy and Broughton have the highest
levels of disability and poor health. Boothstown and Ellenbrook, Worsley and Ordsall
have the lowest levels.

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Council size submission May 2018

3.24 Despite large increases in the working age population in some of the more deprived
areas, the substantial work undertaken by the Council to attract business to the city
has contributed to the proportion of people on benefits decreasing in recent years,
and to a marked degree in certain parts of the city. In November 2012 there were
26,300 people on out of work benefits in Salford (16.8%) and in November 2016 the
number receiving out of work benefits was 18,800 (11.7%). Little Hulton has seen the
largest change, in 2012 there were nearly 3,000 (29%) of the ward’s population on
out of work benefits and by 2016 this had dropped to just over 1,500 (19%). Barton
has seen a similar drop from just under 1,900 (23%) receiving out of work benefits in
2012 to 1,200 (15%) in 2016.

3.25 However, although there has been a reduction of people on benefits, the changes to
benefits and methods of assessment have meant an increasing number of disputed
cases and requests for help directed at councillors. Universal credit will be fully rolled
out in 2018 and could increase the number of people in difficulty during the transition
period. Salford Assist is a Salford City Council scheme that can offer short term
support to people who are in a crisis, emergency or major disaster situation and in
2017 supported 3,308 vulnerable households a 62% increase from the year before. 3

3.26 The “DWP Benefit Conditionality and Sanctions in Salford – one year on” report
published in May 2016 found that sanctions did not encourage people into work and
that benefit sanctions were having a disproportionate impact on young people
(especially care leavers), claimants with dependent children, with health conditions
and whose first language is not English. The report also noted that the rate of
sanctioning in Salford Jobcentres offices had not reduced (in 2016) and had
increased in Eccles and Worsley offices. The report found that young people aged
18-25 were most vulnerable to benefit sanctions and warned that the sanctions
regime would be extended to other groups as Universal Credit is fully rolled out. This
evidence suggests that issues associated with benefits are likely to increase over
time, and as such will place greater demands on the councillor.

3 Year One progress report 2017/18 No one left behind: tackling poverty in Salford
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4 Governance and Decision Making

Context

4.1 Salford City Council is currently made up of 20 wards and 60 councillors. The
Council has been a majority Labour council since 1973. Currently 49 of the 60
councillors are Labour councillors, 9 are Conservative, and there are 2 Independent
councillors. The Council elects its councillors by thirds, with elections held over a
four year cycle.

4.2 Salford is one of 10 councils which make up the Greater Manchester (GM) city-
region. All 10 councils have come together voluntarily to form the Greater
Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA), and, with the recently elected Mayor of
Greater Manchester, work with local services, businesses, communities and other
partners to improve the city-region.

A Directly Elected City Mayor

4.3 Salford operates with an elected City Mayor in contrast to many other local
authorities. This is a different arrangement to that of local authorities with a Leader
and Cabinet. The City Mayor is directly accountable to local people through
elections every four years.

4.4 The first election in Salford of the elected City Mayor was held on the 3 May 2012.
The Mayoral Referendum which led to a “yes” vote for a Mayoral system, was held
on 26 January 2012. This means that the first date that another Mayoral Referendum
could be held in Salford would be 26 January 2022.4 However, should a referendum
be held, an Elected Mayor elected in May 2020 would serve a 4 year term until May
2024, regardless of the referendum outcome.

4.5 The City Mayor has overall responsibility for the delivery of council services. The
City Mayor leads and chairs the Cabinet; provides political and community leadership
and has responsibility for proposing the general budget and policy to Council. He is
not a councillor and so does not have a ward role. He is answerable to Council for
major decisions such as setting the council’s budget for the year.

4.6 All of Salford City Council’s executive functions are vested in the elected City Mayor.
Section 9E(2) of the Local Government Act 2000 (as amended) provides that the
elected City Mayor may determine to exercise any of Salford City Council’s executive
functions personally, or may arrange for the exercise of any of the council’s
executive functions by:

· the Cabinet as a whole

· another member of the Cabinet

· a committee of the Cabinet

4 Section 69 (2) (a) of the Local Government and Public Involvement in Health Act 2007 states that
“ A local authority in England may not hold more than one referendum in any period of 10 years”.
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Council size submission May 2018

· an officer of the council or

· an area committee (which in Salford are called ‘Community Committees’).

4.7 In Salford, the City Mayor exercises his authority in a collegiate way and decisions
are primarily taken in consultation with Cabinet, through the Cabinet Meetings, the
Regeneration and Property Briefing and the City Mayor’s briefing with the Deputy
Mayors. Quote from a survey of members:

“The City Mayor has improved all member involvement in policy forums /
development and in decision making on the massive budget cuts, restructuring,
service priority and budget setting in detail.”

4.8 The Monitoring Officer maintains the elected City Mayor’s Register of the Delegation
of Executive Functions, setting out whether the elected City Mayor himself, an
individual Cabinet Member, a committee of the Cabinet, a council officer, a
Community Committee, or joint arrangements, are responsible for the exercise of
particular executive functions.

4.9 City Mayor Paul Dennett pledged to work for a better and fairer Salford when
elected. He said: “I plan to make an impact for our city and its residents. We will be
working in a different way, being more open when we can about what we do, getting
people involved and listening to their concerns and getting things done.” When he
took office as City Mayor he commented that “My new cabinet has a wide range of
experiences and specialities. We have increased the representation of women on the
team - an important step towards gender equality in council. “Governing this city is a
collective effort. We need to make the most of elected members and council officers
to get the best results for Salford”.5

4.10 The City Mayor has prioritised greater integration and, as such, a Lead Member may
take the lead on one area but the responsibility is shared across the Cabinet. The
City Mayor and Lead Members work collaboratively to ensure council departments
and initiatives are joined up and make effective use of the Council’s budget and
other resources.

4.11 The City Mayor is also an active member of the Greater Manchester Combined
Authority and Portfolio Lead for Housing, Planning and Homelessness in the region.
Given the importance of devolution within Greater Manchester (discussed in greater
detail in following sections), representing Salford at a regional and national level is a
vital and substantial part of the role of City Mayor.

The Council

4.12 Full Council is responsible for holding the City Mayor to account. The Council meets
seven times a year and meetings are typically three hours in duration. Budget council
is held in February. Council meetings are webcast.

5 LIFE in Salford, June 2016 edition


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4.13 Twice a year a policy forum is held for councillors instead of a council meeting. The
policy forum provides an opportunity to discuss policy matters cross party.

Leadership – Cabinet

4.14 Salford City Council’s Cabinet consists of a directly elected mayor (the elected City
Mayor) and nine other Cabinet members, including two Deputy City Mayors.

4.15 The City Mayor has a Cabinet of nine, comprising two Deputy City Mayors and seven
Lead Members, with defined areas of responsibility to support the City Mayor’s
priorities. All Members in the Cabinet are Labour Group Members. Lead Members
may have support Members (known as Executive Support) where they have large or
complex portfolios and they work closely with directors of the relevant services to
oversee the Council’s operations in their portfolio and support the delivery of the City
Mayor’s objectives.

4.16 Cabinet meetings are held in public and are open to Members of the Public to attend.
Agendas and minutes are published on the Council’s website. The Cabinet and
Cabinet briefing meetings are held every two weeks, typically lasting 1 hour to 2
hours each. The role of cabinet is expanded upon further in the following section.

4.17 The City Mayor wants to make sure that departments work together and services are
integrated. In some instances a Lead Member may take the lead on one area but the
responsibility is shared across the Cabinet. The City Mayor and Lead Members work
collaboratively to ensure council departments and initiatives are joined up and make
effective use of the Council’s budget and other resources.

Leadership - Role of Lead Members

4.18 Portfolio holders, known as Lead Members in Salford, make up the City Mayor’s
Cabinet along with the Deputy City Mayors. The Lead Members have responsibility
for particular service and thematic areas and have delegated powers to take
decisions on behalf of the City Mayor in matters relevant to their portfolio as set out
in the constitution. They attend Lead Member briefings at which they are formally
briefed on items for decision relating to their portfolio. These briefing meetings are
held weekly, fortnightly or monthly depending on the portfolio and are typically two
hours in duration. Some Lead Members also have support, known as Executive
Support, from another councillor for some of the larger portfolios. Officer support is
provided to Lead Members to manage their diaries due to the volume of work.

Table 2 - Cabinet Member Positions, Portfolios, Executive meetings

Position Portfolio

City Mayor has retained executive responsibility for


strategic regeneration matters and for property matters as
City Mayor outlined in the City Mayor’s scheme of delegation
December 2016, concerning disposals

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Position Portfolio

Meetings: Council, Cabinet,

GM: Member of GMCA, GM Portfolio Lead for Housing,


Planning and Homelessness , member of GM Health and
Care Board, member of GM Police and Crime Panel

In the absence of the City Mayor, to fulfil the City Mayor's


responsibilities
Lead on Locality planning and Strategic Overview of
Integrated Neighbourhoods. Lead on organisational
effectiveness and efficiency including in relation to
procurement and collaboration. Lead on development and
delivery of the City Mayor’s anti-poverty strategy, including
Statutory Deputy City all aspects of financial and social inclusion. Chair, and take
Mayor decisions on behalf of the Council and the Integrated Care
and Joint Commissioning Committee (ICJC).

Meetings: Council, Cabinet, Procurement Board,


Workforce panel, Electoral Matters committee

GM: Portfolio Assistant for Housing, Planning and


Homelessness
Work with the City Mayor on all matters concerned with the
development and delivery of devolution for Greater
Manchester and on Salford’s role within the Northern
Powerhouse.

Lead on matters relating to the external functions of the


Deputy City Mayor Council including public service reform and transformation.

Meetings: Council, Cabinet, Procurement Board,


Workforce panel, Electoral Matters committee

GM: Substitute member of GMCA, and of GM Health and


Care Board, GM Standards Committee
Strategic regeneration matters and for property matters not
reserved by City Mayor.

Portfolio includes Housing Choice, housing services, and


Lead Member for
homelessness plus shared with Lead Member for
Housing and
Environment and Community Safety - libraries and sport,
Neighbourhoods
culture and leisure.

Meetings: Council, Cabinet, Corporate Parenting Panel,


Electoral Matters committee, Employers Forum, Workforce
Panel

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Position Portfolio

Portfolio includes waste management, environmental and


regulatory services, Street Scene, parks, Taxi regulatory
functions, community safety, Citywide services, plus
shared with Lead Member for Housing and
Neighbourhoods - libraries and sport, culture and leisure.
Lead Member for Strong working relationship with GMP.
Environment and
Community Safety Meetings: Council, Cabinet, Electoral Matters committee,
Employers’ forum, Workforce Panel

GM: Member of GM Police and Crime Panel, member of


GM Waste Disposal Authority

Strategic regeneration matters and for property matters not


reserved by City Mayor and where it does not conflict with
his role as a Member of the Planning Panel.

Portfolio includes energy, environmental sustainability and


quality, lead on Planning and Regulatory functions, client
function for joint venture company with Urban Vision,
strategic planning (when part of the Executive function),
Lead Member for liaise with Salford University, heritage development, air
Planning and and water quality, taxi and private hire regulatory functions.
Sustainable
Development Meetings: Cabinet, Planning and Transportation Panel,
Workforce Panel

GM: GM Planning and Housing Commission, GM Local


Nature Partnership (Natural Capital), GM Forestry
Partnership, GM Flood and Water Management Board,
GM Energy Group, GM appointed trustee of People’s
History Museum

Portfolio includes overseeing the Council’s financial


arrangements, lead on City Mayor’s proposals for Finance
and Budget Strategy, financial regulation, oversee
administration of Council Tax and National Non Domestic
Lead Member for Rates, ICT strategy, corporate business services,
Finance and Support emergency planning
Services
Meetings: Cabinet, Audit and Accounts Committee,
Procurement Board, Standards Committee, Workforce
Panel

Lead Member for Portfolio includes safeguarding vulnerable children,


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Position Portfolio

Children's and Young corporate parenting, local education authority, skills and
People's Services – apprenticeships, Strategy for Young People (post 16) who
are not in Employment or Training, skills and work
Lead member on Salford Children and Young People’s
Trust and Salford Safeguarding Children Board.
Education and development part of Starting Life Well

Meetings: Council, Cabinet, Corporate Parenting panel,


Electoral Matters, Workforce Panel

Portfolio includes public health, joint working and service


delivery arrangements with NHS organisations and other
partners, health improvement, Integrated Commissioning
Organisation, provision of services to adults, safeguarding
Lead Member for
vulnerable adults, Strategy for Older People,
Adult Services, Health
personalisation and care, welfare rights and debt advice,
and Wellbeing
policy on Refugees and Asylum Seekers

Meetings: Council, Cabinet, Electoral Matters

Portfolio includes Human Resources and Organisational


Development Strategies, Equalities and Cohesion
Strategies (in consultation with the Strategic Deputy City
Mayor), performance management, development of
Lead Member for relations with the University of Salford, ICT and Change
Workforce and management strategy
Industrial Relations,
Meetings: Council, Cabinet, Corporate Parenting panel,
Electoral Matters committee, Employers’ Forum,
Workforce panel

Executive support

4.19 The Executive support functions working with the lead members are as follows:

· Executive support for Education and Learning


· Executive support for Culture, Leisure and Sport
· Executive support for Transport
· Executive support for Social Care and Mental Health – GM Housing, Planning
and Environment Overview and Scrutiny Committee

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4.20 The City Mayor delegates authority in particular areas to the cabinet members (Table
2) and expenditure decisions up to specified amounts. 6 The City Mayor delegates
authority within the responsibility areas outlined for expenditure decisions up to
£350,000 and in some cases up to £1Million as outlined in the scheme of delegation.
If for any reason the City Mayor is unable to act, either Deputy City Mayor may act in
his place, on all areas of policy, responsibilities and all other matters as required.

4.21 Decisions can be made by the City Mayor, Deputy City Mayor, Strategic Assistant
Mayors, Executive Lead Members, the City Mayor's Cabinet, full council and Chief
Officers. All decisions are recorded and decision notices are published.

4.22 When ‘key’ decisions are to be discussed or made, these are published in the
Council’s forward plan in so far as they can be anticipated. If these key decisions are
to be discussed with council officers at a meeting, this will generally be open to the
public to attend, other than where personal or confidential matters are being
discussed. The elected City Mayor, members of the Cabinet and Chief Officers have
to make decisions which are in line with the Council’s overall policies and budget. If
the elected City Mayor, members of the Cabinet or Chief Officers wish to make a
decision which is outside the budget or policy framework, this must be referred to the
Council as a whole to decide (except in the case of urgency).7

4.23 The survey highlighted how demands on time were different for members of the
cabinet, compared to non-Cabinet Members (Table 3), due to the additional
responsibilities summarised above and described further in the following section.

Table 3 - Proportion of Councillors spending over 15 hours per month on an activity

Cabinet Non-
Member Cabinet
(inc. Exec Member
Support)
Attendance at Council Committees e.g. Scrutiny, 69% 53%
Licensing etc.

Attendance at other Council meetings 62% 41%


Attendance at external meetings (non-GM) where 23% 16%
you have been appointed a representative by the
Council
Attendance at external meetings supporting the 31% 3%
GM agenda

Preparing for meetings 38% 25%

6 City Mayor’s Scheme of Executive Delegation December 2016


7 Salford City Council Constitution
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4.24 The results of the survey and the journals demonstrated that the role of Lead
Member places significant demands on member’s time. In Salford, the Lead
Member is required to take an active role within their portfolio, providing a proactive
steer to officers, rather than responding reactively to issues as they arise. This
requires that the Lead Member works closely with the officers that fall within their
remit and spend considerable time researching the topic areas to ensure that they
are proficient in carrying out their duties.

“The responsibilities on me as lead member for children and young people have
meant I have had to increase the time spent preparing for meetings and in
meetings, as I try to engage more”

“Change of role to Lead Member which involves at least 3 meetings per day on
average; more reading of reports/articles; more emails; more casework; more
workshops and conferences; more events to attend”

4.25 The Lead Member will also chair many partnership meetings and have significant
involvement in decisions being made across the city. For example, the Lead Member
for Adult Services, Health and Wellbeing provided the following overview of the
duties that fall under their role as Lead Member –

· Advise/assist the City Mayor in the exercise of his functions


T· Lead on the discharge of the council’s functions in relation to public health
h and oversee the joint working on public health
e· Lead on the discharge of the council’s function in relation to health
improvement
R· Lead on behalf of the council on the pooled budget arrangements with NHS
o Salford Clinical Commissioning Group
l· Lead on the council’s duties delegated under a Section 75 to Salford Royal
e Foundation Trust
· Lead on behalf of the council the contractual arrangements for the Integrated
o Care Organisation , jointly held with NHS Salford Clinical Commissioning
f Group
· Oversee on behalf of the council and with partners the development and
implementation of the Service Plan for Adults and Older People which
a
includes key commissioning strategies for Mental Health, Learning Disability,
Carers, Health and Housing
C· Ensure a strategic approach to services for adults provided by the council, to
o promote well-being, prevent social exclusion and protect vulnerable adults,
u with a focus on safeguarding vulnerable adults and the promotion of high
n standards of services for adults with social care needs across all agencies
c· Oversee on behalf of the council the development and implementation of the
i Age Friendly City
l· With the Deputy City Mayor, oversee the council’s delivery of Welfare Rights
l and Debt Advice Services.
o
r

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The Role of a Councillor

4.26 Councillors are elected to represent the people of Salford. As a member of the
Council, he or she has to consider not just the interests of the local community but
also what is in the best interests of Salford as a whole. Councillors represent their
ward constituents at council meetings, and all councillors have advice bureaux which
enable ward constituents to make their views known. Many arrange regular
opportunities for local residents to meet them and discuss any areas of concern.
This is discussed further in section 6.

4.27 A fifth of Salford City Council members have been in office for more than 20 years
and a quarter between 10 and 20 years. Just over a quarter (26%) have been
councillors for between 5 and 10 years with just over a fifth (21%) have been in office
for 2- 5 years. Four councillors (7%) were elected in 2017.

4.28 There were around 100 candidates standing in each of the local elections in 2015
and 2016, an average of 5 per ward, and by-elections (in 2017) have attracted 5-6
candidates per ward, demonstrating that the Council is able to attract candidates
wishing to stand for election. In 2016, Labour and Conservatives represented 100%
of wards, Green party and UKIP represented 95% of wards, and Trades Unionists
and Socialists Against Cuts represented 90% of wards. There were also a number
of other independent candidates and candidates from smaller parties.

4.29 As was shown in Table 3 in the previous section, although the demands on time are
much greater for Lead Members, the demands on a non-cabinet member’s time is
also significant. The survey results reported that non-cabinet members sit on an
average of five different committees, ranging from two to nine.

4.30 Of the 45 councillors who responded to the question, 37 (82%) said that the time
they spend on council business is greater than they had expected before they
became a councillor. When asked if the amount of time spent on council business
had changed over recent years, 35 people said that it had increased.

4.31 When asked what they felt the reasons were for the increased workload, many
referred to the impact of austerity on the functioning of the Council. There have been
significant reductions in the numbers of officers working for the Council, which has
had a considerable impact on the councillor’s workload, with less officer and
administrative support available to councillors.

“Much more meetings on budgets and cutting staffing and services. Difficult decisions
on a weekly basis.”

“Less support from officers as they have been made redundant”

4.32 Other responses raised issues of the impact of austerity on the Salford population,
and the increased accessibility of councillors, which is discussed in more detail in
Section 6 (Representational Role of Councillors).

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4.33 The Council also has representatives on many public bodies such as the Fire and
Civil Defence Authority and Transport for Greater Manchester. As the Council is part
of the Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA) some councillors attend
meetings of GMCA to represent Salford. Many councillors are also appointed to
represent Salford's interests in organisations ranging from local voluntary groups to
the body responsible for planning at a regional level, for example being trustee of the
Working Class Movement library.

4.34 There is a cross party Member Development Group, involving nine members, which
meets several times a year to agree the training required for Members. Members are
also invited to two Policy Forums each year, held in June and December, to discuss
a variety of policy issues. It is a mandatory requirement for members who sit on the
Planning & Transportation Regulatory Panel and the Licensing Panel, to attend a
training session for the relevant panel before they have voting rights. There is
mandatory Member training in respect of Standards, the member Code of Conduct
and engagement with the public. This is annually refreshes to take account of the
new requirements imposed by instant communications and social media.

4.35 Salford is developing the role of the 21st Century Councillor, to ensure that
councillors are able to address new and emerging demands (see 7.21).

4.36 Councillors are also part of a political party with most part of the Labour party (44
plus the City Mayor), there are combined Labour and Co-operative Party (5)
councillors, or Conservative party (9). There are also two independent councillors.
Councillors in Labour or Conservative parties attend political meetings which are
held fortnightly or monthly.

4.37 Councillors are required to spend a significant amount of time on party work; 38% of
councillors reported that they spend over 15 hours each month on party business,
and 24% reported that they spend over 20 hours per month.

Regulatory Panels and Other Committees

4.38 The Council appoints the panels and committees set out below to discharge non-
executive functions.8

Table 4 - Salford City Council Panels and Committees

Committee Members Meetings per Duration of


year meeting

Licensing and Safety Regulatory 15 11 2hrs


Panel
Planning and Transportation 15 19 5.5hrs
Regulatory Panel
Electoral Matters Committee All Members 6 2hrs
Workforce Panel (All Cabinet 11 12 0.5 – 1 hr
Members)
Employers’ Forum 15 12 7hrs
Audit and Accounts Committee 8 5 2.5hrs

8 Salford City Council’s Constitution


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Committee Members Meetings per Duration of


year meeting

Health and Wellbeing Board 6 4 2 hrs


(6 Members - one of which is a co-
chair. 1 conservative, 4 labour plus
the Lead Member (Labour))
Standards Committee 10 3 times per 2 hrs
year (plus
additional for
investigations)
Corporate Parenting Panel9. 11 11 2 hrs
Equal Opportunities Forum 13 6 2hrs
Procurement Board 4 fortnightly 1.5hr
Integrated Health and Social Care 6 9 3hrs
Commissioning Joint Committee
Standing Advisory Council for 5 3 2hrs
Religious Education
Transport Advisory Panel 14 19 1.25hrs

4.39 Some of these panels can place considerable demands on councillor’s time. For
example, the Employers’ Forum meetings are held monthly and usually last for a full
day, with preparation prior to the meeting on top of this.

4.40 The Council has secured £6.5 million in Section 106 contributions from developers
(the largest in Greater Manchester). The considerable amount of development /
regeneration in the city of Salford has resulted in a large volume of planning
applications and many are complex due to size and /or are controversial meaning
that Members must be involved in determining whether the application can be
approved.

4.41 Salford City Council has agreed to delegate certain non-executive functions to all
Chief Officers of the Council10. These are the Chief Executive and Strategic Directors
plus the Directors of Public Health and of Service Reform. The Assistant Director
Legal and Governance and the Development Director are also considered part of this
group.

4.42 Delegated functions include Human Resources, such as filling posts, dismissal of
employees and dealing with grievances. Officers also have roles as Statutory or
Proper officers such as the Head of Paid Service or Returning Officer.

Greater Manchester and City Partnerships

4.43 Salford is one of ten councils which make up Greater Manchester Combined
Authority (GMCA). The GMCA is run by the first Mayor of GM and the leaders of the
10 councils.

9 Report to Council 17 May 2017 Membership of Committees and Panels and the Appointments of
Chairs and Deputy Chairs for the Municipal Year 2017/18
10 Salford City Council’s constitution

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4.44 As one of the ten local authorities of Greater Manchester, Salford has a long and rich
history of working together. This record of co-operation and the creation of the
Greater Manchester Combined Authority in 2011 have helped Salford play a leading
role in the most ambitious programme of devolution in a generation.

4.45 The opportunities that devolution brings for Salford are exciting, and the council is
seizing it with both hands to pioneer new ways of doing things differently. This
includes; leading on the review of services for children across all of GM in
partnership with the Department for Education, the redrafting of the GM Spatial
Planning framework, and working closely having political portfolio lead for housing,
planning and homelessness.

4.46 In total Greater Manchester has gained control of over £8 billion of capital and
revenue budgets in recent years. The GMCA has a long term strategic goal of either
controlling or influencing all public spending decisions that affect Greater
Manchester, which amounts to approximately £23 billion.11

4.47 The Greater Manchester system has some important governance features, which
ensure that individual authority members retain influencing and veto powers, and the
Greater Manchester system should be seen as one that encourages consensus.

4.48 Full responsibility for NHS powers and funding was passed to Greater Manchester in
April 2016. Since that time the following has been achieved:

· Publication of the GM Strategic Plan for Health and Social care – ‘Taking
Charge’ and the GM Population Health Plan
· Work to transform the acute care system
· Confirmation of a £450m Transformation fund to support this work by
Government. Around half of this money has already been allocated to
programmes of work across GM (including £18.4m for Salford’s Integrated
Care Organisation, and £3.4m for Salford’s population health plan)
· Development of proposals to prepare and support the health and social
care workforce through the changes ahead, as well as rationalise the built
infrastructure and maximise use of digital technology.12

4.49 The business of Greater Manchester Combined Authority calls on the time of the City
Mayor and Deputy City Mayors but also a number of the Lead Members and
Executive Support Members. It expands the boundaries of their role, as councillors,
behind the city into the wider city region of Greater Manchester. Councillors outside
the cabinet are also part of some of the Combined Authority groups. Examples of
meetings that Members attend:

· Executive Support for Transport is part of the Transport for Greater


Manchester (TfGM) meetings and sub-committees and devolution has
given TfGM greater powers. Backbench members, one Labour and one
Conservative, are also part of TfGM

11 Report to September 2017 Overview and Scrutiny Board, Salford City Council
12 Report to September 2017 Overview and Scrutiny Board
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· The City Mayor is a member of GMCA and Deputy City Mayor a substitute
member. Both are also member and substitute member of the GM Health
and Social Care Partnership Strategic Partnership Board.

· City Mayor is the Greater Manchester Portfolio lead for Housing, Planning
and Homelessness and the Statutory Deputy City Mayor is Portfolio
Assistant. The Deputy City Mayor is the substitute for the City Mayor.

· City Mayor and Lead Member for Environment and Community Safety are
part of the GM Police and Crime Panel

· The Lead Member for Environment and Community Safety and a Labour
backbench councillor are part of the GM Waste Disposal Authority.

· The Deputy City Mayor is also a member of the GM Standards Committee.

· GM Fire Committee – backbench councillors, one Labour and one


Conservative attend

· GMCA Scrutiny committee – three committees plus a health and social


care committee, attended by five backbench councillors

4.50 In addition to working with other Greater Manchester authorities as part of the
Combined Authority, Salford works with other authorities to share services such as
legal services with Manchester City Council and has developed a new Drug and
Alcohol service with Bolton and Trafford.

4.51 Salford City Council is also represented on a number of groups that bring local
authorities together from across the country such as Key Cities and Cooperative
Council Information Network. LGA, LGIU. Key Cities is a group of authorities
considered “mid-sized” due to their populations and economies. Local authorities in
the group share knowledge and develop solutions to common problems. The group
acts together to promote Salford’s economic interests to central government.

4.52 The Co-operative Councils’ Innovation Network is a collaboration between local


authorities who are committed to finding better ways of working for, and with, local
people for the benefit of their local community. The network consists of local
authorities who are committed to reforming the way they work through building an
equal partnership with local people.

4.53 Salford’s involvement with these and other groups shows a willingness to work and
share knowledge collaboratively not just locally and in the city region of Greater
Manchester but nationally too.

4.54 Salford is looking into becoming a Learning City. Learning Cities are being
established across the world, based on the idea that by working and learning
together, the Council can achieve more and in turn this will transform lives,
organisations and cities.

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Other partnership working

4.55 Salford City Council works collaboratively with a wide range of organisations. In
particular, working with key anchor institutions including the NHS, university, housing
providers, and VCSE sector, means that the city is driving forward a shared set of
cross cutting priorities that places inclusive growth at the heart of public investment.

4.56 Salford is also a pioneer in integrating health and social care. In July 2016, Salford
became the first place in the country to launch a pioneering new Integrated Care
Organisation (ICO), Salford Together, which is transforming the relationship that the
council and NHS have with patients, people and communities.

4.57 Salford Together is the culmination of four years of tireless work by the council, NHS
Salford CCG, Salford Royal FT and Greater Manchester Mental Health FT, with the
transfer of nearly 450 adult social care staff from the council to the new organisation
led by Salford Royal, with a pooled budget in excess of £236 million.

4.58 In addition to the ICO, the city’s pioneering mutual, Aspire, owned by 375 former
council staff delivers £11 million of adult social care services.

4.59 In October 2016, political and officer leadership from the council and University of
Salford came together for the first of many, joint strategic conferences that have
forged stronger operational and academic links for the benefit the wider community.
This includes:

· Working together to develop a comprehensive master plan vision for the


main university student campus and the wider Salford City Centre area.

· Formation of new research and knowledge exchange partnerships such as


the Salford Anti-Poverty Taskforce and Fair Rents Commission.

· The signing of a unique cultural partnership agreement along with the Arts
Council England that allow arts and culture to become embedded in the
strategic thinking for the city, leading to the creation of a new cultural
strategy.

4.60 Salford City Council works closely with local “blue light services” in particular Greater
Manchester Police (GMP) and Greater Manchester Fire and Rescue (GM FRS) at
strategic and operational levels. The Lead Member for Environment and Community
Safety attends the Community Safety Partnership meetings held quarterly, and ward
councillors will work with GMP and GMFRS at local partnership development groups.
At a Greater Manchester level the Lead Member for Environment and Community
Safety attends the Greater Manchester Police and Crime panel meetings which are
held quarterly.

4.61 The council works with a variety of agencies through its Safeguarding Boards for
Children and for Adults. Lead Members or Executive support members attend the
quarterly meetings (duration of 2 hours), as non-voting participants.

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4.62 The Council is represented on the Board of City Salford Community Stadium by the
Statutory Deputy City Mayor and the Lead Member for Environment and Community
Safety. The Stadium known as the AJ Bell Stadium provides an arena for sports,
events and conferences for businesses and communities across the North West.

4.63 The Lead Member for Environment and Community Safety sits on the Bridgewater
Canal Trust and is also part of a task and finish group along with one backbench
councillor from Labour and Conservative. The trust meet twice a year and formulate
the long and short-term policies for the amenity use of the Bridgewater Canal. All
income generated by the Bridgewater Canal from pleasure craft, fishing, drainage
and sales of water for cooling purposes etc. is used to maintain and improve the
Canal and its local environment.

4.64 Salford Members are also part of the Lowry Committee, three Labour members and
one Conservative.

Community Decision Making

4.65 At a local level the public is encouraged to get involved in discussion and decisions
made about their local area. Salford wards are grouped into eight neighbourhoods
and each neighbourhood holds a number of committees, or networks and groups,
according to the needs of local communities. The relevant ward councillors for a
neighbourhood take part in these meetings.

Table 5 - Neighbourhood Level Meetings

Neighbourhood Meetings
Claremont and Weaste – Community Committee, Budget sub group,
Claremont and Weaste and Seedley Highways Sub group and Local Partnership
Development Group (LPDG) all held bi-
monthly
East Salford – comprising Community Committee, Budget sub group,
Broughton, Irwell Riverside and Highways Sub group and LPDG all held bi-
Kersal monthly
Eccles – Barton, Winton and Eccles Budget and Highways sub group, LPDG all
held bi-monthly. Eccles Town Team
Eccles holds 3 community network events per
year as well as community committee
meetings. Network events can attract over 70
people and often up to 100.
Irlam and Cadishead Community Committee, Budget and Highways
sub group, LPDG and Regeneration Team all
held bi-monthly.
Little Hulton and Walkden - Little Budget sub group and LPDG held bi-monthly
Hulton, Walkden North and Walkden
South
Ordsall and Langworthy Community Committee, Budget sub group,
Highways Task group and Senior Partnership
Delivery Board all held bi-monthly
Swinton - Swinton South, Swinton Budget group, Highways Task group and
North, and Pendlebury LPDG all held bi-monthly. Heritage Task
Group 3-4 meetings per year. Swinton and
Pendlebury Community Network held as
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Council size submission May 2018

Neighbourhood Meetings
required.
Worsley and Boothstown - Community Committee, Budget sub group, and
Worsley, and Boothstown and LPDG all held bi-monthly
Ellenbrook
Each Each meeting is 1.5 - 2 hours in length

4.66 Community committees and network events take place regularly, giving residents an
opportunity to find out what’s happening in their neighbourhood. By attending,
residents can meet their ward councillors, link in to local community and voluntary
groups, find out about local activities and meet service providers such as the police,
housing authorities and the Council. Ward councillors attend community committee
or network meetings for their area.

4.67 Community Committees work in a formal, structured setting with a chair and vice
chair. Network meetings operate more like a “market place” with stalls staffed by
groups or councillors and provide a more informal space for discussion.

4.68 All of the councillors who have been elected in the wards covered by each of
Salford’s Community Committees are appointed as voting Members of their
Community Committee. In addition, each of Salford’s Community Committees has
appointed representatives of community groups as non-voting co-opted members
who are entitled to make recommendations to the elected members of their
Community Committee. All meetings are held in public.

4.69 Each of the Council’s Community Committees has a devolved budget and is
responsible for making decisions in relation to this devolved budget.13 In 2017 to
2018, approximately £1.03 per head of the population is allocated to each
community committee where decisions are made on how the budget should be
spent. Each community committee elects a budget sub-group from among its
members. They assess applications and make recommendations about how the
funding should be spent. Budget sub-groups include local residents and local
councillors. They discuss ways in which the funding could best be used to improve
health outcomes for the local population. Recommendations are then taken to the
community committee for elected members to approve, refuse or request further
information in relation to funding applications. Budgets range from £20,200 to
£42,100 and the total allocation is £250,000.14

4.70 In addition to the community committee devolved budgets, a further £50,000 per
year funding for highways and transport improvements is devolved to each
community committee. This gives local people an opportunity to have a say on
highways improvements and road safety in their areas.

13 Salford City Council’s Constitution


14 Salford City Council website
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Council size submission May 2018

5 Scrutiny Functions
5.1 Overview and scrutiny committees are the main way by which the cabinet is held to
account in public for the services the council provides. They have an important role
in reviewing the authority's policies and other matters of more general concern and
making recommendations, either to the full council or to the cabinet on future policy
options. Overview and scrutiny can also influence the delivery of services of other
partner organisations.

5.2 Scrutiny is there as a critical friend, to review and help to develop council policies
and performance, to ensure that they have a positive impact on the people of Salford
as well as to call in and examine decisions of the Executive. The committees are
able to request independent research and expertise to help with their enquiries as
well as questioning members of the cabinet and chief officers about the decisions of
performance. The scrutiny process should provide members with more information
and help them to become more adept at investigating below the surface of policies
and strategies, consequently developing a range of skills.

5.3 The scrutiny committees meet monthly (except during the Council recess from 17
July to 20 August) and the meetings are around 2.5 to 3 hours in length. The
membership of scrutiny committees comprises elected members from all the political
parties, allocated to ensure political balance and can include co-opted members from
other interested groups with particular expertise.

5.4 Table 6 shows the number of members who attend the Overview and Scrutiny Board
and the four panels. The Overview and Scrutiny Board co-ordinates the work of the
scrutiny panels and scrutinises corporate services. The panels cover the remaining
council services (see Table 7).

5.5 The Overview and Scrutiny Board’s main role is holding Cabinet to account both
before and after decisions are made. The Board also has a role in policy challenge
and monitoring improvement plans. The Board does not just look at council matters
but has a role in scrutiny of external agencies. The Board also conducts a
programme of value for money scrutiny reviews and considers requests for scrutiny
reviews under the ‘Councillor Call for Action’ process (Crime and Disorder matters
are referred directly to the Community and Neighbourhoods Panel). The Board is
responsible for scrutinising overall budget matters and considers reports from the
Audit and Accounts committee.

5.6 The Scrutiny process requires a considerable amount of member and officer time
particularly as, in Salford, the Boards and panel conduct reviews. The Scrutiny board
and panels may request scrutiny reviews known as either spotlight reviews, which
are “deep dives” into a subject, or task and finish reviews which are longer and are
more in depth. Members work with officers on the reviews and report back to the
Board or relevant panel.

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Council size submission May 2018

Table 6 - Salford City Council Scrutiny Committees

Committee Members
Overview and Scrutiny Board 11
Panels:
Children’s 12
Community and 12
Neighbourhoods
Growth and Prosperity 12
Health and Adults 12

5.7 When scrutinising committee decisions the Board or panels may request that Lead
Members attend and take questions on items, most often for complex issues.

5.8 Salford frequently reviews the work of overview and scrutiny to ensure that the
function is meeting its purpose of examining and providing assurance for services
and issues that affect the lives of people in Salford. The council has developed the
overview and scrutiny panels over the years, to improve the responsiveness and to
make a meaningful impact from reviews.

5.9 In early 2014, Salford City Council expressed an interest in being a 'pilot' for North
West Employers new scrutiny evaluation process, ‘Monitor’. Monitor was devised in
partnership with North West Employers and associate consultant Dr Stephanie
Snape to provide an assessment of a council's overview and scrutiny function, in
particular to ensure it is 'fit for purpose' given the current financial and policy
environment. The review was designed to support the Council in thinking about its
strategic approach to scrutiny and the potential impact that scrutiny can have on
supporting the achievement of key council objectives.

5.10 The specific objectives of the review were:

· To review the roles undertaken by scrutiny, in particular to examine the possibility


of further extending the work of scrutiny into jointly agreed overview and policy
development work, and partnership scrutiny;

· To explore the nature of relationships between the executive side and scrutiny, in
order to make recommendations to achieve more productive relationships;

· To examine the officer side of scrutiny - both officer support to scrutiny and the
responsiveness of officers to scrutiny investigations and requests for information;

· To assess the current effectiveness of scrutiny structures;

· To consider how scrutiny can operate most effectively within mayoral systems.

5.11 The council is currently in the process of evaluating the progress made on the review
and revitalising the recommendations, which includes workshops for members,
mentoring for Chairs and Vice Chairs and scrutiny workshops for key officers who
attend scrutiny.

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Council size submission May 2018

Table 7 - Scrutiny Portfolios

OVERVIEW AND SCRUTINY BOARD


· Co-ordinating the work of the Scrutiny Panels
· Scrutinising corporate services
· conducting a programme of value for money scrutinies
· Considering reports from the Audit and Accounts Committee.
· Scrutinising overall budget matters and all other financial matters, including the
Treasury Management Strategy.
· To receive reports from the Scrutiny Panels on a six monthly basis
· To consider requests for scrutiny reviews under the Councillor Call for Action process
(other than calls for action relating to Crime and Disorder matters where requests
shall be referred directly to the Community and Neighbourhoods Scrutiny Panel
GROWTH AND PROSPERITY PANEL COMMUNITY AND NEIGHBOURHOODS
· Physical regeneration, PANEL
· Business investment and programmes, · Community Safety
· Planning, housing and transport · Communities and Neighbourhoods
strategy and delivery, · Regulatory Services (including
· Pendleton PFI, Environmental Health, Trading
· Environmental sustainability, Standards, Licensing)
· Housing: (Citywest, Salix client and · Operational Services (including
private), Citywide, bereavement, operational
· Climate change, transport, refuse and street cleansing,
· Urban Vision, parks management, grounds
· To discharge the Council’s scrutiny maintenance)
functions as lead local flood authority. · Salford Community Leisure Client
· To scrutinise the Council’s business · Cultural strategy
plan and budget in this functional area. · To be the designated Crime and
Disorder Scrutiny Committee
· To scrutinise the council’s business
plan and budget in this functional area.
CHILDREN’S SCRUTINY PANEL HEALTH AND ADULTS PANEL
· Children in Need · Health, Public Health and Social Care
· Integrated Looked after Children Integration and performance thereafter
· Early Intervention · Commissioning Hub
· Children’s Safeguarding · Major Health reconfiguration
· Integrated Youth Support including · Overview of Health and Wellbeing
Youth Offender Service Board in promoting integration
· Complex Needs Inclusion · Supporting People
· Complex Needs SEN · Services for independent living – care
· School Provider Arm on call, sheltered housing, supported
· Starting Life Well tenancies
· Transforming Learning · Adult Safeguarding
· Skills and Work · Integrated Teams
· BSF and Primary School Place · Provider Services
Planning programmes · Personalisation and care management
· Partnerships and Commissioning · Asylum Seekers and Refugees
(including the Children and Young · Welfare rights and debt advice
People’s Trust) · To review and scrutinise any matter
· To scrutinise the council’s business relating to the planning provision and
plan and budget in this functional area. operation of the health service in the
Salford area.
· To scrutinise the council’s business plan
and budget in this functional area
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Council size submission May 2018

6 Representational Role of Councillors


6.1 In addition to council business, another significant part of the councillor’s time is the
representational role they have with their constituents.

6.2 The survey asked councillors how much time they spend on community obligations
(e.g. community committees/ community forums); engaging with constituents (e.g.
home visits, ward walk-abouts); and dealing with constituents (e.g.
enquiries/casework from and on behalf of constituents). The results from the survey
are included in Table 8 below.

Table 8 - Proportion of Councillors Spending Over 15 hours per months on different aspects of
community engagement

Proportion
over 15 hours
per month
Community obligations (e.g. community 18%
committees/ community forums)

Engaging with constituents (e.g. home visits, ward 33%


walk-abouts)
Dealing with constituents (e.g. enquiries/casework 42%
from and on behalf of constituents)

6.3 The results show that, although reacting to enquiries and casework is an important
part of how councillors carry out their representational role, they also spend a
significant amount of time proactively engaging with their communities. There is an
increased expectation that councillors will attend a greater number of neighbourhood
meetings. Councillors attend the Community Committees described in Section 3.4,
but there are also lots more informal groups, such as residents’ groups, that
councillors are expected to attend, and additional groups that request significant
amounts of support from councillors on a more ad-hoc basis.

6.4 Councillors are also involved in community events. For example Eccles, Winton, and
Irlam and Cadishead all have major festivals each year. Other events include The
Pink Picnic, part of Salford’s Pride events, and the Big Day Out at the town hall.
Councillors are invited to attend and sometimes speak at these events.

6.5 In terms of casework, half of all councillors are required to manage a caseload of at
least 30 cases each month, with less than a third of councillors working on fewer
than 20 cases each month. There are no significant differences between cabinet
and non-cabinet members with regards the size of their caseloads, which requires
Lead Members to balance casework with their portfolio related work.

6.6 The councillors make themselves very accessible to the public through face to
surgeries, emails, telephone calls, social media etc. There is little direct support to
councillors in the management of their caseloads, however, they will liaise with
officers, neighbourhood teams, and other agencies such as housing, as is
appropriate.

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Council size submission May 2018

6.7 The results from the survey reported very strongly that the way in which councillors
represents their communities has changed over time. As mentioned previously, just
less than 80% of councillors reported that the time they spend on council business
has increased over recent years. Around half of these respondents talked about
how the increased accessibility of the councillor had impacted on this. Technology
such as social media, mobile phones and emails, has enabled the public to engage
with their councillor, in a way that wasn’t previously possible. This is something that
the Council has strived to develop and encourage, however, it places additional
demands on the councillor’s time.

“As councillors we have made ourselves more accessible to our constituents via
Facebook etc. If you create a service it will be used!”

“Have to give more time to residents, more time on case work, the case work has
increased immeasurably.”

6.8 Of the 45 councillors who responded to the question, 78% said that they were
spending more, or significantly more time communicating with their constituents via
email, and 60% said that they were spending more, or significantly more time
communicating via social media. Very few people said that they were spending less
time communicating via any form of media.

6.9 Councillors also highlighted the impact that austerity has had on their constituents
and how that has resulted in additional workload for them. Over half of councillors
responding to the question, made reference to how the impact of austerity on the
public has increased the time they spend of council business in recent years.

“Issues related to cuts to budgets and austerity, eg increased crime, problems with
social care, increased fly tipping.”

“Austerity has significantly impacted Salford with us losing £198m (50%) of our
budget since 2010. each year the decisions we have to make get harder and
harder, the impact on communities becomes more and more visible and we are
seeing more residents get in touch to complain about budget decisions,
campaigning against consultations and decisions and this requires more time for
lead members and councillors, having to agree comms statements, press releases,
dealing with challenges over social media etc.”

6.10 Salford has a Youth Council and a Children’s Trust Board. The Lead Member for
Children’s and Young People’s Services chairs the Children’s Trust Board which
meets six times a year and is two hours long. The Board is young person lead and
focused, and has some joint priorities with the Safeguarding Board such as the Start
Well programme and Voice of the Child. It is a non-statutory Board. The majority of
Salford councillors are local authority appointed school governors.

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Council size submission May 2018

7 The Future – Changing Role for Council and Councillors

Greater Manchester

7.1 There is £23billion of public spending in Greater Manchester which public sector
organisations want to control locally. The devolution deals already agreed are
progressing and drawing control to the region from central government. The Adult
Education is due to be transferred this year and control of Children’s Services,
Criminal Services and Housing monies is still to transfer. Greater control of public
money in the region will mean that Members have more to oversee and make
decisions on either through GMCA or as part of Scrutiny. New governance structures
may be required with the increased executive functions.

7.2 In the autumn budget the Chancellor announced that Greater Manchester would be
provided with an allocation of £243 million over four years as part of the
Transforming Cities Fund. This funding will provide Greater Manchester with the
flexibility to make strategic decisions on the priority transport projects, and help to
improve connectivity and reduce congestion in the region.

7.3 As part of the agreement, the Government will also invest £28m in Housing First
pilots in three areas across England, one of which will be in Greater Manchester.
This will support rough sleepers with the most complex needs to turn their lives
around.

7.4 The agreement outlines Government’s commitment to working with Greater


Manchester to develop a local industrial strategy. This will be a long-term vision for
growth, based on robust evidence and focused on raising productivity and earning
power in the area. The Government and the GMCA have also committed to work
together on a range of other policy areas. These include Trade and Investment,
Housing, Skills, Offender Management, and Employment Support.

7.5 A new Greater Manchester Strategy was launched in October 2017 which sets out a
set of clear priorities for the region, including:

· All children to start school ready to learn


· Young people equipped for life
· Good quality housing, and an end to rough sleeping
· Greater Manchester to pioneer a positive vision for growing older

7.6 Called ‘Our People, Our Place’, the new Greater Manchester Strategy is a long term
blueprint for the future of the 2.8m people who make up the region.

7.7 The plan looks at 10 priority areas which affect all Greater Manchester residents and
details how life will be improved for all who live in the city-region, from being ready
for school, to starting work and growing old, as well as everything else in between.

7.8 Salford is part of the Combined Authority which will deliver against these priorities.

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Council size submission May 2018

Growth and Working with Business

7.9 Salford’s rapid rate of growth is expected to continue, with the current pipeline of
development forecasted to bring a further £3.9 billion of private sector investment
over the next eight years; creating up to 40,000 new jobs and 40,000 new homes by
2040 (1,800 more homes year on year to 2040).15

7.10 The second phase of development in Salford Central, which is expected to bring a
further £2.2 million a year in extra revenue. £200 million of capital investment will be
made over the next 25 years to develop 352,000 square feet of new office space at
100 Greengate and Two New Bailey; creating an extra 3,000 jobs.

7.11 The re-location to Salford of leading multinational companies, including Kellogg’s


moving its UK headquarters to MediaCityUK (420 jobs), magic circle law firm
Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer becoming the anchor tenant of Salford’s new
commercial district, New Bailey (450 jobs), and Swinton Insurance relocating its
headquarters to 101 Embankment (950 jobs).

7.12 The launch of the Council’s own ethical housing development company (Dérive Ltd)
as the first step towards building the city’s first council houses in decades. With £2
million already set aside, and more to come, this is a serious commitment to build the
truly affordable housing Salford so desperately needs.

7.13 As has been discussed previously, working with businesses already in the city and
encouraging new businesses to move to the city is increasingly a part of senior
members’ time.

7.14 Salford City Council’s forthcoming inclusive economic growth and place making
strategy will set out a clear framework for attracting investment and delivering new
jobs and opportunities over the next few years. It is important that residents are
connected to the opportunities generated through this growth and that the Council
uses its influence to work with employers who are committed to giving something
back in return – those who offer local jobs, look after their employees and pay them
well.

7.15 More than 100 employers have signed up to the City Mayor’s Employment Charter
that encourages Salford based organisations to improve pay and conditions and
ensure more local people benefit from local employment and training opportunities.

7.16 The City Council works with businesses such as Peel Land and Property, on
expansion of MediaCityUK, with further investment of up to £1 billion secured to
double its size by 2030. This will provide even more high skilled, high paid jobs in
what is already one of the leading digital, creative and technology clusters in Europe.

7.17 The council is a partner of the Landing which is Salford’s super accelerator for digital
businesses and a major asset in supporting innovation, business growth and
collaboration amongst digital SMEs in the region.

15 MJ Award submission 2018 – Local Authority of the Year


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Council size submission May 2018

7.18 Salford has a clear ambition to become a Digital City and is strongly committed to
ensuring everyone gets the most out of digital technology. As part of the city’s Digital
Everyone Plan, the Council has linked up with Barclays to create the pioneering
Digital Eagles programme to create a network of digital champions across the city.
The Council is working closely with the Good Things Foundation to get almost 8,000
of the city’s most vulnerable and digitally excluded residents online and confident
about using technology within the next two years.

Health and Social Care Integrated Commissioning

7.19 The City Council and Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) share the long term
goals of achieving better health outcomes for local residents, reducing health
inequalities and delivering the Locality Plan ambitions of enabling people to Start
Well, Live Well and Age Well. Salford City Council has been working jointly with
Salford CCG to develop options for closer working, including shared commissioning
decisions and arrangements including the integration of commissioning budgets for
the totality of health and social care in Salford. Therefore, Salford City Council
Cabinet and NHS Salford CCG Governing Body have agreed to build on the strong
integration and partnership working arrangements already in place between the two
organisations and have agreed in principle to create a new, single commissioning
function for health and social care. This will facilitate councillors and local GPs to be
able to make decisions about health and social care in the city together.

7.20 As the Council takes on greater responsibility with regards health and social care,
the demands on councillors will also increase. Organisations such as the Integrated
Care Organisation requires an equal number of councillors as health care
professionals for governance purposes, and the Integrated Commissioning Joint
Committee is co-chaired by the Statutory Deputy Mayor, alongside a health
professional, and is also attended by a number of other cabinet members.

7.21 As integrated commissioning expands, these roles will demand more time and will
require commitment from a greater number of councillors. For example there will
also be a more significant remit around the scrutiny of health services when the
Council shares responsibility for commissioning and procurement. New and
additional scrutiny procedures will need to be developed to meet this need.

21st Century Councillor

7.22 North West Employers has worked with Birmingham University on a research project
examining what the 21st Century Councillor should look like. The report examines
what councillors’ roles will be in the future in terms of the demands on councillors,
the skills and attitudes they will need and how their support will need to
change. Salford City Council is using the ethos of the 21st century councillor,
outlined in the report, as good practice to develop the role and support to councillors
in Salford. Members have committed to obtaining the Member Development Charter
from North West employers and will be actively involved in the development and
delivery of the work.

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Council size submission May 2018

7.23 The 21st Century Councillor report outlines the changing demands on councillors due
to the ongoing effects of austerity and changing expectations from the electorate, for
example due to technological change. The report identified the increased need for
community leadership from councillors, highlighting roles such as steward of place
(partnership working in the locality) and sensemaker (translating a shift in the role of
public services and between institutions and citizens).

7.24 The report comments that councillors are strongly rooted in their wards and localities.
It goes on to say that “the pressure to integrate services, and to work at a regional
level within combined authorities, is changing the scale of pace and challenging local
identities. At the same time, the increasing diversity within services – delivered by a
much wider range of partners – is challenging their ability to act as stewards of their
places.”

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Council size submission May 2018

8 Conclusion and Recommendations


8.1 The city has seen significant population growth since the last boundary review, and
will continue to see unprecedented growth in coming years. As the population
grows, it brings with it increasing diversity in terms of affluence and poverty, ethnicity
and faith groups. This is, and will continue to place increasing demands on the role
of the councillor, as they seek to support growing and more diverse communities.

8.2 The city of Salford has transformed from its industrial past and has seen exceptional
levels of growth and investment in its city centre, the Quays and Media City, and the
Greater Manchester Western Gateway. However, this has required exceptional
levels of commitment from members of the Cabinet, and backbench councillors, in
order to attract and manage such significant developments.

8.3 In contrast to many other Local Authorities, Salford operates with a City Mayor who
has overall responsibility for the delivery of council services. However he exercises
his authority in a collegiate way and key decisions are taken by the City Mayor in
consultation with the Cabinet. The City Mayor chairs the Cabinet, which consists of
two Deputy City Mayors, and seven Lead Members. The City Mayor delegates much
authority and expenditure decisions to the Cabinet. This approach stems in part
from a political desire to truly democratise the approach to decision making, but also
from necessity due to additional demands placed on the whole Council as a result of
the Greater Manchester Combined Authority, devolution and the integration of health
and social care.

8.4 The opportunities that devolution and integration bring are exciting, but also bring
with them significant challenges. Salford member’s involvement in meetings such as
the Greater Manchester Planning and Housing Commission, or Greater Manchester
Police and Crime Panel, means that Salford is able to shape and influence significant
budgets that have been devolved to Greater Manchester, however, this adds to an
already pressured workload.

8.5 Equally, as the integration of health and social care progresses, it will provide
opportunity for much improved outcomes for Salford residents, but will require a sea
change in the role of the council as it shares the responsibility for a substantial
increase in commissioning and procurement. This in turn will require a substantial
increase in functions such as scrutiny, which will be carried out by members. In the
coming years, as the council goes through this transition, there will be considerable
demands placed on cabinet and backbench councillors, as the council simply plans
and develops these new ways of working.

8.6 Regulatory requirements already place a substantial workload on the councillor, with
much of the decision making authority delegated to Lead Members, and a
requirement for backbench councillors to also support the processes. Although
these processes can be onerous, councillor involvement in making key decisions and
regulatory processes, ensures that residents are connected to the opportunities and
developments, through their democratically elected representatives.

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Council size submission May 2018

8.7 Through the 21st Century Councillor programme, Salford is striving to build and
develop the role of the councillor as a community leader. The role of the councillor is
changing. The survey and journal entries showed that austerity has transformed
both the council itself, but also the lives of constituents, and the role of the councillor
is adapting to the changing landscape. Councillors must work with growing numbers
of community groups, to facilitate and support people to work alongside the council in
a co-productive way, as traditional service delivery is forced to be cut back. One in
five councillors, rising to one in four for Cabinet members, are spending at least 15
hours each month solely attending meetings such as community committees and
forums. At the same time, councillors must support their constituents with growing
numbers of issues arising from the impact of austerity, such as changes to the
benefit system, housing and rents, and issues with employment. Over half of the
councillors who took part in the survey said that austerity had caused an increase in
their workload over recent years; the 21st Century Councillor refers to this as ‘perma-
austerity’. The survey demonstrated that half of all councillors are working on at
least 30 cases each month, and for a third of councillors this equates to over 20
hours every month.

8.8 The changing way in which constituents communicate with councillors has also
contributed to an increased workload. Councillors have become more available to
constituents through email and social media, increasing the demand placed on
councillors. As Salford’s young population continues to grow, this demand is only
going to increase.

8.9 Salford City Council has, and will continue to work hard to improve and enrich
the lives of people living in Salford. This submission has described some of
the significant developments that the Council has achieved through a long
history of partnership working with other public sector organisations, with the
VCSE sector, with businesses, and with the people of Salford. For the Council
to continue to make improvements, while facing the challenges of austerity
and a rising population, and whilst navigating devolution and integration, the
council recommends that the size of the Council should remain at 60
councillors across 20 wards (3 members per ward).

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Council size submission May 2018

Appendix 1 - Member Survey Questionnaire

44
Local Government Boundary Review Councillor Survey

You and Your Role

* 1. Name:

* 2. How long have you been a Councillor with Salford City Council?

1 to 5 years 16 to 20 years

6 to 10 years Over 20 years

11 to 15 years

* 3. In addition to your role as a councillor, what other position(s) do you hold within the Council?

Lead Member

Executive Support

Scrutiny Chair

Committee Chair

None

Other (please state below)

1
* 4. Of which of the following are you a member?

Audit and Accounts Committee Licensing and Safety Regulatory Panel (Taxis)

Cabinet Licensing Panel (Premises)

Children's Scrutiny Panel Overview and Scrutiny Board

Community and Neighbourhoods Scrutiny Panel Planning and Transportation Regulatory Panel

Corporate Parenting Panel Procurement Board

Council Property / Regeneration Briefing

Electoral Matters Committee Salford Advisory Council for Religious Education

Employers Forum Salford Schools Forum

Growth & Prosperity Scrutiny Panel Standards Committee

Health and Adults Scrutiny Panel Traffic Advisory Panel

Health and Wellbeing Board Workforce Panel

Integrated Health and Care Commissioning Joint Committee None

Other (please specify)

* 5. Have you been appointed by the Council to any outside bodies e.g. school governor, supporting Greater
Manchester Combined Authority?

Yes

No

2
Local Government Boundary Review Councillor Survey

* 6. You said you have been appointed by the Council to outside bodies – Please list the organisation(s) and
role(s).

* 7. How many cases/issues do you deal with, on average, per month?

1 to 5 31 to 35

6 to 10 36 to 40

11 to 15 41 to 45

16 to 20 46 to 50

21 to 25 Over 50

26 to 30

8. How do you deal with your ward casework and what support do you receive?

3
Local Government Boundary Review Councillor Survey

How you spend your time as a Councillor

* 9. On average, how many hours per month do you spend on council (and political) business?

0 hours 1 to 5 hours 6 to 10 hours 11 to 15 hours 16 to 20 hours Over 20 hours

Attendance at Council
Committees

e.g. Scrutiny, Licensing


etc.

Attendance at other
Council meetings

e.g. meetings with


officers, working groups
etc.

Time spent on party


business

Attendance at external
meetings (non-GM)
where you have been
appointed a
representative by the
Council

e.g. school governor,


housing associations

Attendance at external
meetings supporting the
GM agenda

e.g. Greater Manchester


Combined Authority,
Transport for Greater
Manchester

Community obligations

e.g. community
committees/ community
forums

Engaging with
constituents

e.g. home visits, ward


walk-abouts

4
0 hours 1 to 5 hours 6 to 10 hours 11 to 15 hours 16 to 20 hours Over 20 hours

Dealing with constituents

e.g. enquiries/casework
from and on behalf of
constituents

Preparing for meetings

Attending workshops,
training, conferences

Travel related to
Councillor business

Other activities (please specify)

* 10. Is the time you spend on council business what you expected when you became a councillor?

Yes

No - I spend more time on council business

No - I spend less time on council business

* 11. Has the time you spend on council business changed over recent years?

Yes - I spend more time on council business

Yes - I spend less time on council business

No

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Local Government Boundary Review Councillor Survey

* 12. You said that the time you spend on Council business has changed, what do you think the reason is for
this?

* 13. What aspect of your duties (council business and/or within the community) has changed the most over
recent years?

* 14. What percentage of your time do you spend communicating with constituents?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Face to face

Telephone

Text

Email

Letter

Social media

Newsletters

Meetings

Other (please specify)

6
* 15. Have you noticed any significant change in the amount of time you spend communicating via each of
these methods in the last 12 months?
Spending Spending
significantly more significantly less
time Spending more time Spending less time time No change

Face to face

Telephone

Text

Email

Letter

Social media

Newsletters

Meetings

Other (please specify)

* 16. Do you feel that the balance above is right for you to communicate effectively with your constituents?

Yes

No

Why do you think this?

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Local Government Boundary Review Councillor Survey

Anything else?

17. Is there anything else about your experience as a Salford Councillor that might be relevant to the
council’s submission on council size?

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Local Government Boundary Review Councillor Survey

Questions about you

As part of the submission to the Local Government Boundary Commission, information will be
included regarding the extent to which councillors reflect the diversity of our communities. You are
not required to complete this section and please note that this information will be collated
separately from your survey responses, however, by providing this information you will assist the
Council to provide as much information as possible to the LGBCE.

18. With which gender do you identify?

Woman (including trans woman)

Man (including trans man)

Other (please specify)

19. Do you identify with the gender you were assigned at birth? (e.g. male or female)

Yes

No

20. What is your age?

18 to 24 years 55 to 64 years

25 to 34 years 65 to 74 years

35 to 44 years 75 or older

45 to 54 years

21. What is your ethnic group?

9
22. Do you consider yourself to be a disabled person?

Yes

No

Prefer not to say

Please use this space if you would like to give more information

23. How would you describe your sexuality?

Lesbian Heterosexual / Straight

Gay Prefer not to say

Bi-sexual

Other (please specify)

24. Do you identify with any religion or belief?

Yes

No

Prefer not to say

25. If yes, please tell us your faith or religion

Christian (Including Church of England / Catholic / Protestant Jewish


and all other Christian denominations)
Muslim
Buddhist
Atheist
Hindu

Sikh

Other (please specify)

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Council size submission May 2018

Appendix 2 – Forecasting Technical report


Forecasting Technical Report - Council size submission May 2018

Forecasting Technical Report


To support the submission on council size, to be submitted to the local Government
Boundary Commission for England

1
Forecasting Technical Report - Council size submission May 2018

1 Introduction .....................................................................................................................3

2 Population Growth in Salford ..........................................................................................4

3 Methodology ...................................................................................................................4

4 Calculations ....................................................................................................................6

5 Key factors of population change ...................................................................................7

6 Checks ...........................................................................................................................8

7 Caveats and compromises .............................................................................................9

Appendices ..........................................................................................................................10

8 Appendix 1: Population and electorate in 2017 ............................................................10

9 Appendix 2: Variance from the average in 2017 ...........................................................12

10 Appendix 3: Population and electorate in 2024 ..........................................................15

11 Appendix 4: Variance from the average by 2024 .......................................................17

12 Appendix 5: Polling district level: 2024 population and electorate .............................18

13 Appendix 6: Residential pipeline ................................................................................23

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1 Introduction
This paper sets out the background and methodology used to project the electorate
within Salford to support the ward boundary review.

Salford is a growing city. Following decades of population decline, the turn of the
century saw a reversal with an average annual growth of 1% since 2002. The city’s
population now stands at almost a quarter of a million people, the largest number
since the 1970s. Population growth has gone hand-in-hand with economic growth.
Many of the new residents have settled in the East of the city, around the
regeneration of Salford Quays within the Ordsall ward and taking advantage of its
proximity to Manchester City Centre. Much of the new housing development in and
around the Quays has been in the form of high rise apartment buildings providing
accommodation for young professional couples and singles, many of whom are
recent graduates from one of the three universities in Central Manchester. Virtually
all of the recent population growth is associated with young adults.

This asymmetric growth in the population of the city, in terms of both age and
geography, has lead to the need for a new approach to projection the future
population at the level of wards. Salford City Council previously relied solely on the
Office for National Statistics (ONS) sub-national population projections1 (SNPP),
which it apportioned across wards based on the latest population size and age
structure. This approach was sufficient during periods of low and relatively uniform
growth, however it has become increasingly less valid in recent years.

This was not the only issue identified locally with the reliance on the SNPP. The
approach taken by the ONS uses current population along with assumptions about
fertility, mortality and migration. These assumptions are based on recent trends and
the methodology is applied across all areas in England with the sum total for all
districts constrained to the national projection figure. The growth in Salford is atypical
for several reasons; firstly it is concentrated in a relatively small geographical area
and secondly it differs from historic trends in terms of both scale and demographics.
Further, the SNPP approach does not incorporate expected future housing growth in
the model. Given the extensive and continued level of development around Ordsall it
was acknowledged locally that past trends would not adequately predict the
magnitude of future growth.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojectio
ns/datasets/localauthoritiesinenglandtable2

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Forecasting Technical Report - Council size submission May 2018

2 Population Growth in Salford


Since 2002 the population of Salford has grown every year according to official ONS
estimates. Further official projections suggest that growth will continue in the
forthcoming years, albeit at a slowing rate. The charts below show the census
population for 2001 and 2011 along with the intercensal mid-year population
estimates (MYE) and the most recent SNPPs based on 2012 and 2014 MYEs
respectively. These charts not only show that the population is growing, but that each
update shows a higher population and faster growth than previous ones. For
example in 2012 it was projected by the ONS that the Salford population would
reach 247,300 by 2016, two years later a revised projection for 2016 raised it to
247,900 and the latest population estimate for 2016 puts the figure even higher at
248,100. Despite these revisions local data suggests this is still an undercount. It is
agreed that there are now more people living in the city than there have been in
almost 40 years and the population will continue to increase.

Figure 1: Salford Population Estimates and Projections, Source: ONS


Population of Salford 2001 to 2024 Population Growth in Salford
Source: ONS Source: ONS
270 1.8
Thousands

1.6
260 1.4
Percentage Growth

1.2
250 1.0
Population

0.8
240 0.6
0.4
230 0.2
0.0
220
-0.2
-0.4
210

Mid Year Estimate Census 2012-based SNPP 2014-based SNPP Mid Year Estimate 2012-based SNPP 2014-based SNPP

3 Methodology
In 2017, prior to the triggering of the boundary review, Salford City Council identified
a need for a more sophisticated approach to population forecasting to better account
for the rapidly changing demographic profile of the city. Following a review of
available options in 2017 the authority invested in POPGROUP2.

POPGROUP is a suite of demographic software developed to generate population,


household, labour force and other derived projections for specified geographical
areas and/or population groups. It has been developed over the last two decades,
initially to meet the need for local forecasting.

This software has enabled Salford to better understand how much the population is
likely to grow in future years, while better quality local data has allowed us to
estimate where, and understand how. By including the very latest data on housing
developments, which has been the key driver of Salford recent growth, we can give a
more detailed, informed and contemporary picture of the local and future population
of the city overall and the different areas of the city.

2 http://www.edgeanalytics.co.uk/popgroup.php

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By employing the same ‘cohort component’ model used by ONS for the biennial sub-
national population projections POPGROUP allows users to specify the population
that is being forecast, to adjust the components of change (births, deaths, migration)
based on local knowledge. Examples of why these may differ across a local authority
include, large student populations that have lower fertility rates than other residents
of similar age (fewer births); new housing development comprising 3 and 4 bedroom
houses on brownfield site (higher inward migration of families); demolition of 1960s
tower blocks (higher outward migration).

The diagram below shows a simplified picture of how this model works. For each
age/sex group the change due to deaths and migration (inward and outward) are
calculated, everyone remaining is aged by one year then births are added based on
the fertility rate of women of child-bearing age in the area, to give the new
population. The only exception to this are the “special populations” such as prisoners
and students, a large proportion of whom are replaced by different people of a similar
age the following year. This new population then becomes the starting point and the
process is repeated for each subsequent year in turn.

Figure 2: Diagram showing cohort component model of population change.

The inputs and calculations within POPGROUP are the same as that used by the
ONS to produce the SNPP, the differences are in scale and flexibility.

Specifically, rates of future births, deaths and most relevantly migration can be
adjusted to reflect local knowledge. In Salford we have adjusted the migration levels
in local areas to account for new housing developments and internal movement, and
fertility rates to account for different populations and family size.

Salford’s model uses a range of data sources, both published and administrative.
This model accounts for current and future housing development, variations in fertility
rates, increased life expectancy and internal flows of people across the city.

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Forecasting Technical Report - Council size submission May 2018

4 Calculations
POPGROUP allows for up to 40 geographical subdivisions in the calculations.
Salford’s forecasting model uses all of this capability with the 40 areas built up from
administrative data areas. To best capture the different population dynamics across
the city the areas were created to maximise homogeneity with larger geographical
areas in those parts of the city with stable populations and smaller areas i.e. more
subdivisions in the areas of high growth and greatest flux.

To ensure a consistent output, the population projected for each individual


geographical subdivision is constrained to the overall projected population of the city.

A key component of the calculations is the use of sociodemographic profiles of


households across Salford to understand the key characteristics of the population.
Salford has used MOSAIC data extensively in developing the population forecast
model, particularly in relation to identifying households associated with students and
recent graduates. Sense checking data at household level, ensuring that numbers of
adults are not undercounted, that larger communal populations are being accounted
for, and that the categorisation of special population is being applied to the right
geographies, is a vital part of the calculations. The end result is a population growth
exceeding 2% per year, meaning the adult population is expected to reach 200,000
by 2024.

Data from the model can be recombined into a range of different geographies. For
the purpose of the Ward Boundary Review the principle unit is the polling district.

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5 Key factors of population change


Housing Development in Salford: The following map (Map 1) shows Salford’s
housing and economic land availability assessment (HELAA) sites3. In the next five
years the HELAA identifies 2,734 new houses and 14,960 new apartments. The vast
majority of these apartments (11,828 or 79%) are located in Ordsall ward (detail).

Map 1: HELAA sites is Salford (2017), Source: Salford City Council

Developable sites for: Sites not developable for:

Internal migration: Whilst growth in the East of the city has been the biggest driver of
demographic change it is not the only one. Use of administrative data (including
council tax, child health data, school census) a pattern of westward migration has
been evidenced. Some of this migration has resulted in families leaving Salford and
settling in neighbouring boroughs, whilst other families have moved to the more
suburban wards within Salford.

Increased life expectancy: There is a great deal of variation in the life expectancy of
people in Salford. A two mile stretch of the Bridgewater canal sees life expectancy
for women decline from an average 84.8 years in Worsley Green to 73.8 years in
Patricroft. However life expectancy across the city has risen for men and women.
One result of this is fewer deaths and an ageing population. This affects the figures
for one of the other components of change, mortality. Through access to the Primary
Care Mortality Database we are able to track changes to mortality rates and life
expectancy at a local level.

3 https://map.salford.gov.uk/maps/helaa/

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Forecasting Technical Report - Council size submission May 2018

Fertility rates: There is considerable variation in fertility rates across the city. For
example in Higher Broughton the general fertility rate (GFR) for 2016 was 164 per
1,000 women aged 15-44, compared to a rate of 13 per 1,000 in the similar sized
Chapel Street / Blackfriars area of central Salford, a short distance away. This lower
birth rate is more representative of the incoming population around Ordsall. National
evidence from MOSAIC shows these households are having fewer children, typically
later in life, with the majority moving to more suburban homes to start families. This
is also supported by local data showing patterns of maternities, births and finally
school place registration, which supports westward migration of families with young
children. The model uses birth data to calculate local fertility rates and trends, which
in turn are used to calculate projections of future births.

Voter registration rates: To turn the population forecasting into electorate forecasting
Salford has looked in detail at the electoral roll, and the trends in registration within
different groups in Salford. This has been done at household level to ensure the
integrity of the data, and to uncover variations by age, area, and socio-demographic
group. The model applies what we know about registration rates to the population
forecasts in order to estimate the number of voters from the adult population in 2024.

6 Checks
Quality assurance is vital to ensuring the projections produced by the Salford model
meet the objective of providing a reliable picture of the city over the forthcoming years.
The outputs from the model will be revised regularly as new input data is made
available. Comparisons have been made to experimental population estimates4
produced the ONS based on administrative data sources. The increased growth
estimated by the Salford model is corroborated by these. The forecast outputs have
also been compared to other datasets, including local pupil place planning projections,
council tax, and the electoral roll. These provide support for the estimated level of
internal movement.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/census/censustransformationprogramme/administrativedatacensusproject/
methodology/methodologyofstatisticalpopulationdatasetv20

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7 Caveats and compromises


Population forecasting attempts to apply a degree of formal and systematic rigour to
the unknown. Sometimes that evidence may not be sufficient or the picture may
evolve over time. Houses that are planned may not get built, houses that are built may
not get filled. Changes to the economy may make an area more or less desirable or
more or less affordable. The wider political climate can also affect population
dynamics, for example by impacting levels of international migration. Currently around
25% of the incoming population are from other countries in the European Union;
however over 50% are UK nationals, with most of these coming from local cities. The
main driver for local growth is the pool of university students in central Manchester
and Salford that receives circa 13,000 fresh students every year. These numbers are
expected to remain at this level or beyond over the next decade, regardless of other
changes to migration. Over the next few years Salford will complete over 4,000 new
homes a year, which is half of the housing growth in Greater Manchester. All these
factors can impact on how the population changes. The Salford model acknowledges
these uncertainties but they cannot be entirely eliminated.

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Forecasting Technical Report - Council size submission May 2018

Appendices

8 Appendix 1: Population and electorate in 2017


The estimated 2017 total population and the 2017 population aged 18 and over are
shown in Table 1 alongside the electorate for December 2017. The average 2017
ward population is 12,887, average 2017 population aged 18 and over is 10,139, and
the average 2017 ward electorate is 8,843. This gives a ratio of around nine electors
to every 10 residents aged 18 and over.

Table 1: Population by ward and registration rates in 2017


Ward Population Population aged 2017 % Election
2017 18+ 2017 published Roll in
electorate 2017
Barton 13,277 10,215 9,158 89.7
Boothstown &
8,255 7,644
Ellenbrook 10,262 92.6
Broughton 16,625 11,386 10,052 88.3
Cadishead 11,776 9,134 8,193 89.7
Claremont 10,987 9,255 8,355 90.3
Eccles 12,191 10,104 9,268 91.7
Irlam 10,207 7,753 6,989 90.1
Irwell Riverside 11,493 10,394 8,038 77.3
Kersal 13,931 9,728 8,657 89.0
Langworthy 13,162 10,703 9,057 84.6
Little Hulton 14,589 10,388 9,280 89.3
Ordsall 21,095 18,269 12,513 68.5
Pendlebury 13,274 10,335 9,050 87.6
Swinton North 12,242 9,553 8,515 89.1
Swinton South 12,101 9,371 8,398 89.6
Walkden North 12,881 9,809 9,078 92.5
Walkden South 11,113 9,008 8,043 89.3
Weaste & Seedley 12,373 10,193 9,298 91.2
Winton 13,002 9,904 9,071 91.6
Worsley 11,163 9,027 8,196 90.8
SALFORD 257,746 202,784 176,853 87.2
Source: Salford City Council, Salford Population Growth Model 2018

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The electorate and the population aged 18 and over are mapped to illustrate the
concentration of more populated wards in central Salford (Map 2), compared to the
wards with higher numbers of electorate (Map 3), and the total population by ward
(Map 4).

Map 2: Estimated population aged 18 and over by ward in 2017

Map 3: Published electorate by ward in 2017

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Forecasting Technical Report - Council size submission May 2018

Map 4: Total population at 2017 by ward

9 Appendix 2: Variance from the average in 2017


According the Boundary Commission’s definition, variance from average is
significant if more than 30% of an authority’s wards have an electoral imbalance of
more than 10% from the average for that authority; and/or it has one ward with an
electoral imbalance of more than 30%. Salford had a ward average of 8,843 electors
in 2017 but there were a number of wards that were considerably above or below
average.

Figure 3 shows the variance from the city’s ward average (shown by a magenta line)
for Salford’s electorate at 2017 with the darker shades of green/ brown indicating
where a significant level of variance occurs.

Electoral imbalance exists in four wards, two with variance that is more than 10%
above average (Ordsall 41.5%, Broughton 13.7%) and two which are 10% below
average (Irlam -21.0%, Boothstown & Ellenbrook -13.6%).

The current ward of Ordsall has the greatest variance from the average electorate in
2017 and as such meets the definition of 30% variance from average set out by the
Boundary Commission.

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Figure 3: Electorate by size of ward, 2017, Source: Salford City Council

Map 5 shows the variance from the city’s ward average for Salford’s electorate at
2017 with the darker shades of green/ brown indicating where a significant level of
variance occurs. Wards with a number of electors that is significantly above the ward
average (green) tend to be in Central Salford, while wards with a number of electors
that is significantly below the ward average (brown) tend to be in West Salford.

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Forecasting Technical Report - Council size submission May 2018

Map 5: Percentage variance from average ward size 2017

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Forecasting Technical Report - Council size submission May 2018

10 Appendix 3: Population and electorate in 2024


Table 2 shows the estimated population in 2024, the population aged 18 and over,
and an estimate of electorate numbers.

Table 2: Projected ward population and electorate in 2024


Ward Total Adult Electorate
populationpopulation 2024
2024 (age 18+)
2024
Barton 14,448 10,996 9,458
Boothstown & Ellenbrook 11,147 8,870 8,216
Broughton 18,178 12,308 10,267
Cadishead 12,552 9,573 8,668
Claremont 11,633 9,680 8,763
Eccles 13,015 10,662 9,344
Irlam 10,867 8,100 7,430
Irwell Riverside 15,556 14,325 11,670
Kersal 14,945 10,235 8,954
Langworthy 14,427 11,655 9,562
Little Hulton 15,765 11,000 9,835
Ordsall 36,325 33,139 26,184
Pendlebury 14,527 11,136 9,983
Swinton North 13,112 10,010 9,003
Swinton South 13,032 9,882 8,849
Walkden North 14,247 10,763 9,549
Walkden South 12,454 10,066 9,215
Weaste & Seedley 13,303 10,845 9,582
Winton 13,914 10,421 9,261
Worsley 11,907 9,485 8,691
SALFORD 295,354 233,151 202,484
Source: Salford City Council, Salford Population Growth Model 2018

The forecast electorate for 2024 is 202,484.

The average 2024 ward population for all ages is estimated at 14,768 and the ward
average for those aged 18 and over is 11,658. The average ward size of the
electorate by 2024 is 10,124 based on the current 20 wards.

The ward distribution of the population aged 18 and over and the expected
electorate at 2024 are illustrated in Map 6 and Map 7, highlighting that wards around
the city centre have the highest number of adult population and electors.

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Forecasting Technical Report - Council size submission May 2018

Map 6: Estimated population aged 18 and over by ward in 2024

Map 7: Estimated electorate by ward in 2024

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11 Appendix 4: Variance from the average by 2024


The forecast electorate in each ward and the extent to which each ward total is
above or below the city average is shown in Table 3, with those with variance from
the average of +/- 10% indicated in green for above average and brown for below
average. Of the current 20 wards, in 2014 two wards would be more than 10% above
average (one being substantially above) and eight would be 10% below the average.
As such, this meets the Boundary Commission’s definition of significant variance
from average, as 50% of Salford’s wards (the threshold is 30%) are estimated to
have an electoral imbalance of more than 10% from the average as well as having
two wards (the threshold is one) with an electoral imbalance of more than 30%.

Table 3: Estimated electorate and variance at 2024


Ward Electorate 2024 Variance from
ward average in
2024
Barton 9,458 -6.6%
Boothstown & Ellenbrook 8,216 -18.8%
Broughton 10,267 1.4%
Cadishead 8,668 -14.4%
Claremont 8,763 -13.4%
Eccles 9,344 -7.7%
Irlam 7,430 -26.6%
Irwell Riverside 11,670 15.3%
Kersal 8,954 -11.6%
Langworthy 9,562 -5.6%
Little Hulton 9,835 -2.9%
Ordsall 26,184 158.6%
Pendlebury 9,983 -1.4%
Swinton North 9,003 -11.1%
Swinton South 8,849 -12.6%
Walkden North 9,549 -5.7%
Walkden South 9,215 -9.0%
Weaste & Seedley 9,582 -5.4%
Winton 9,261 -8.5%
Worsley 8,691 -14.2%
SALFORD average 10,124 0.0%
Source: Salford City Council, Salford Population Growth Model 2018

Map 8 shows the variance from the city’s ward average for Salford’s electorate at
2024 with the darker shades of green/ brown indicating where a significant level of
variance occurs. Wards with a number of electors that is significantly above the ward
average (green) tend to be in Central Salford, while wards with a number of electors
that is significantly below the ward average (brown) are mostly in West Salford.

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Map 8: Projected ward electorate % variance by ward in 2024

12 Appendix 5: Polling district level: 2024 population and electorate


Table 4 shows the published electorate by polling district at 2017 and the 2017
population aged 18+ based on the proportions of a ward’s 2017 electorate in each
polling district. The electorate and population aged 18 and over at polling district
level in 2024 is calculated using the distribution of new housing (taken from SHLAA,
Nov 2017) in each polling district.

Table 4: Published electorate by polling district in 2017 and estimate for 2024
Ward Electoral Population Published Adult Electorate
District aged 18+ electorate population 2024
(ED) 2017 2017 (age 18+)
2024
Barton No 1 DA 987 897 1,030 940
Barton No 2 DB 2,801 2,654 3,033 2,639
Barton No 3 DC 1,885 1,611 1,993 1,666
Barton No 4 DD 1,707 1,560 1,817 1,542
Barton No 5 DE 1,281 1,159 1,336 1,172
Barton No 6 DF 489 420 510 459
Barton No 7 DG 1,064 857 1,276 1,039
Barton 10,214 9,158 10,995 9,457

Boothstown & Ellenbrook No 1 MA 2,900 2,656 3,053 2,840


Boothstown & Ellenbrook No 2 MB 1,385 1,139 1,445 1,201
Boothstown & Ellenbrook No 3 MC 1,194 1,079 1,250 1,150
Boothstown & Ellenbrook No 4 MD 1,354 1,270 1,443 1,357

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Boothstown & Ellenbrook No 5 ME 1,422 1,500 1,678 1,668


Boothstown & Ellenbrook 8,255 7,644 8,869 8,216

Broughton No 1 OA 1,710 1,535 1,784 1,410


Broughton No 2 OB 795 644 1,093 872
Broughton No 3 OC 811 847 846 745
Broughton No 4 OD 2,456 2,084 2,649 2,159
Broughton No 5 OE 816 740 852 734
Broughton No 6 OF 967 814 1,009 848
Broughton No 7 OG 820 699 855 707
Broughton No 8 OH 876 785 971 897
Broughton No 9 OI 391 346 408 346
Broughton No 10 OJ 892 705 931 697
Broughton No 11 OK 851 853 909 842
Broughton 11,385 10,052 12,307 10,257

Cadishead No 1 AA 2,257 1,945 2,357 2,043


Cadishead No 2 AB 1,807 1,614 1,890 1,712
Cadishead No 3 AC 1,117 989 1,201 1,034
Cadishead No 4 AD 1,011 994 1,055 1,045
Cadishead No 5 AE 953 863 994 926
Cadishead No 6 AF 1,990 1,788 2,076 1,908
Cadishead 9,135 8,193 9,573 8,668

Claremont No 1 SA 1,702 1,474 1,776 1,584


Claremont No 2 SB 2,183 2,095 2,299 2,215
Claremont No 3 SC 3,268 2,877 3,412 3,023
Claremont No 4 SD 2,103 1,909 2,194 1,940
Claremont 9,256 8,355 9,681 8,762

Eccles No 1 EA 3,678 3,151 3,858 3,264


Eccles No 2 EB 1,497 1,440 1,571 1,424
Eccles No 3 EC 1,116 1,075 1,165 1,092
Eccles No 4 ED 1,375 1,228 1,469 1,261
Eccles No 5 EE 1,796 1,847 1,883 1,710
Eccles No 6 EF 642 527 716 592
Eccles 10,104 9,268 10,662 9,343

Irlam No 1 BA 902 739 947 813


Irlam No 2 BB 2,365 2,108 2,467 2,269
Irlam No 3 BC 2,325 2,109 2,429 2,209
Irlam No 4 BD 2,161 2,033 2,256 2,139
Irlam 7,753 6,989 8,099 7,430

Irwell Riverside No 1 RA 1,476 1,102 1,601 1,163

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Irwell Riverside No 2 RB 951 825 992 839


Irwell Riverside No 2 RC 726 532 1,018 897
Irwell Riverside No 4 RD 369 289 537 399
Irwell Riverside No 5 RE 1,921 1,335 2,616 1,969
Irwell Riverside No 6 RF 1,294 982 1,640 1,397
Irwell Riverside No 7 RG 630 396 1,020 813
Irwell Riverside No 8 RH 276 231 288 247
Irwell Riverside No 9 RI 1,366 973 2,916 2,444
Irwell Riverside No 10 RJ 176 272 434 350
Irwell Riverside No 11 RK 1,209 1,101 1,261 1,149
Irwell Riverside 10,394 8,038 14,323 11,667

Kersal No 1 NA 2,191 1,965 2,286 2,027


Kersal No 2 NB 312 276 326 255
Kersal No 3 NC 2,971 2,570 3,117 2,686
Kersal No 4 ND 3,281 2,965 3,485 3,114
Kersal No 5 NE 596 528 626 522
Kersal No 6 NF 378 353 394 351
Kersal 9,729 8,657 10,234 8,955

Langworthy No 1 QA 1,670 1,620 1,812 1,446


Langworthy No 2 QB 485 408 554 496
Langworthy No 3 QC 994 770 1,037 819
Langworthy No 4 QD 1,480 1,355 1,547 1,293
Langworthy No 5 QE 978 900 1,020 968
Langworthy No 6 QF 222 56 583 396
Langworthy No 7 QG 298 267 311 280
Langworthy No 8 QH 2,008 1,612 2,102 1,696
Langworthy No 9 QI 712 617 743 640
Langworthy No 10 QJ 932 676 986 725
Langworthy No 11 QK 922 776 962 803
Langworthy 10,701 9,057 11,657 9,562

Little Hulton No 1 LA 1,768 1,415 1,845 1,536


Little Hulton No 2 LB 1,865 1,762 2,025 1,974
Little Hulton No 3 LC 1,828 1,659 1,906 1,674
Little Hulton No 4 LD 755 622 787 656
Little Hulton No 5 LE 799 686 920 812
Little Hulton No 6 LF 821 764 857 747
Little Hulton No 7 LG 1,689 1,501 1,761 1,578
Little Hulton No 8 LH 862 871 900 860
Little Hulton 10,387 9,280 11,001 9,837

Ordsall No 1 PA 3,429 2,775 5,581 4,733


Ordsall No 2 PB 1,668 860 4,356 3,221

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Forecasting Technical Report - Council size submission May 2018

Ordsall No 3 PC 3,682 3,000 5,324 4,616


Ordsall No 4 PD 1,653 1,382 1,729 1,452
Ordsall No 5 PE 3,685 1,831 8,219 6,116
Ordsall No 6 PF 4,153 2,665 7,929 6,046
Ordsall 18,270 12,513 33,138 26,184

Pendlebury No 1 GA 1,460 1,248 1,734 1,499


Pendlebury No 2 GB 545 504 568 527
Pendlebury No 3 GC 1,011 939 1,126 1,061
Pendlebury No 4 GD 1,257 1,054 1,311 1,150
Pendlebury No 5 GE 2,116 1,837 2,207 1,934
Pendlebury No 6 GF 813 704 919 866
Pendlebury No 7 GG 1,706 1,531 1,780 1,641
Pendlebury No 8 GH 1,426 1,233 1,490 1,304
Pendlebury 10,334 9,050 11,135 9,982

Swinton North No 1 HA 1,847 1,590 1,931 1,674


Swinton North No 2 HB 1,703 1,456 1,777 1,549
Swinton North No 3 HC 965 926 1,007 965
Swinton North No 4 HD 1,077 972 1,123 994
Swinton North No 5 HE 1,277 1,192 1,332 1,247
Swinton North No 6 HF 2,256 2,010 2,393 2,196
Swinton North No 7 HG 429 369 447 378
Swinton North 9,554 8,515 10,010 9,003

Swinton South No 1 FA 1,380 1,207 1,446 1,282


Swinton South No 2 FB 1,366 1,109 1,443 1,196
Swinton South No 3 FC 750 694 783 727
Swinton South No 4 FD 1,089 1,031 1,136 1,046
Swinton South No 5 FE 1,162 972 1,212 1,030
Swinton South No 6 FF 1,557 1,386 1,704 1,544
Swinton South No 7 FG 947 943 991 963
Swinton South No 8 FH 1,120 1,056 1,167 1,062
Swinton South 9,371 8,398 9,882 8,850

Walkden North No 1 KA 2,028 1,767 2,129 1,837


Walkden North No 2 KB 1,873 1,736 1,941 1,732
Walkden North No 3 KC 2,874 2,503 3,404 3,047
Walkden North No 4 KD 2,008 1,791 2,094 1,825
Walkden North No 5 KE 1,025 1,281 1,195 1,109
Walkden North 9,808 9,078 10,763 9,550

Walkden South No 1 JA 1,330 1,115 1,401 1,206


Walkden South No 2 JB 1,681 1,460 1,922 1,790
Walkden South No 2 JC 1,477 1,343 1,640 1,514

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Forecasting Technical Report - Council size submission May 2018

Walkden South No 4 JD 1,166 967 1,235 1,091


Walkden South No 5 JE 1,306 1,253 1,363 1,354
Walkden South No 6 JF 1,444 1,371 1,862 1,675
Walkden South No 7 JG 604 534 644 584
Walkden South 9,008 8,043 10,067 9,214

Weaste & Seedley No 1 TA 937 754 1,018 831


Weaste & Seedley No 2 TB 625 538 654 528
Weaste & Seedley No 3 TC 815 724 850 679
Weaste & Seedley No 4 TD 1,967 1,888 2,110 1,798
Weaste & Seedley No 5 TE 1,927 1,761 2,030 1,799
Weaste & Seedley No 6 TF 1,864 1,777 2,037 2,021
Weaste & Seedley No 7 TG 1,544 1,395 1,611 1,472
Weaste & Seedley No 8 TH 513 461 536 454
Weaste & Seedley 10,192 9,298 10,846 9,582

Winton No 1 CA 1,056 947 1,103 957


Winton No 2 CB 1,999 1,771 2,088 1,781
Winton No 3 CC 2,022 2,026 2,195 2,020
Winton No 4 CD 1,105 1,003 1,152 1,046
Winton No 5 CE 893 620 932 664
Winton No 6 CF 643 620 671 613
Winton No 7 CG 1,011 986 1,055 1,047
Winton No 8 CH 744 738 776 768
Winton No 9 CI 430 360 449 365
Winton 9,903 9,071 10,421 9,261

Worsley No 1 IA 385 334 402 339


Worsley No 2 IB 2,148 1,934 2,251 2,031
Worsley No 3 IC 1,082 894 1,143 980
Worsley No 4 ID 1,660 1,504 1,733 1,555
Worsley No 5 IE 1,075 1,040 1,127 1,120
Worsley No 6 IF 2,048 1,897 2,155 2,043
Worsley No 7 IG 629 593 674 623
Worsley 9,027 8,196 9,485 8,691
Source: Salford City Council, 2018; Salford Population Growth Model 2018
NB: City total numbers may not match due to rounding error

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Forecasting Technical Report - Council size submission May 2018

13 Appendix 6: Residential pipeline


The electorate forecast considers the forecast residential pipeline. This is based on
housing supply data from Salford's draft Strategic Housing Land Availability
Assessment (HELAA). The data offers a snapshot of the city's pipeline in 2017 and is
subject to change based on a range of external factors, many of which are outside
the council's control.

The forecast considers residential schemes which are:


· under construction,
· sites with planning permission where work hasn't yet started,
· sites with planning allocation for housing use,
· windfall sites which have the potential to accommodate residential development
over the next 7 years

The majority of schemes that are expected to be delivered during 2017-2024 have
already been given permission, with most of these under construction. There were
just over 8,000 dwellings under construction as of April 2017, and these have been
given the expected completion date as the end of 2019. There are just under 8,000
others with full permission, with these given an expected completion date as the end
of 2021. As of April 2018, the total amount of other allocations that did not have full
permission but are outlined as potential developments before 2022 was just under
4,000. It is expected that over the coming years, this will fall into line with the
previous biannual totals of around 8,000, as more developments currently outlined
for 2022-24 are given full permission.

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Forecasting Technical Report - Council size submission May 2018

Table 5 shows the current number of planned and allocated residential


developments by ward from 2017 to 2024.

Table 5: Residential pipeline housing schemes 2017-2024, Source: Salford City Council, 2018
Ward By 2019 By 2021 By 2023
Barton 92 61 3
Boothstown & Ellenbrook 1 113 32
Broughton 197 40 -
Cadishead 8 13 8
Claremont 14 6 72
Eccles 126 202 -
Irlam - 10 -
Irwell Riverside 1,277 1,174 80
Kersal 29 51 -
Langworthy 131 6 282
Little Hulton - 171 55
Ordsall 5,761 5,658 2,673
Pendlebury 129 96 148
Swinton North 22 3 8
Swinton South 12 11 100
Walkden North 89 2 316
Walkden South 344 124 24
Weaste & Seedley 41 185 20
Winton - 12 49
Worsley 5 34 -
SALFORD 8,278 7,972 3,870

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