CONSTRUCTING A DIGITAL TWIN
Parts A & B – Comm 05 – (5-15 & 5-16)
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Rusty Irving
Digital Twin Platform Leader & Chief Engineer
GE Global Research
13 June 2018
© 2018 General Electric. Not to be copied, distributed, or reproduced without prior approval.
Who is Rusty Irving?
Rusty Irving
➢ Education
BS – Computer Science with Math and Physics Concentration – Siena College 1985
MS – Computer Science & Engineering – Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute 1988
➢ General Electric 1984 – Present
Artificial Intelligence Systems Engineer 1985 – 1994
Information Technology Training Program Manager – 1995
Six Sigma Master Black Belt -- 1995 to Present
Service Informatics Lab Manager – 1997 to 2000
Aircraft Engine Services Systems Engineer – 1997 to 2000
Global Technology Leader – 2000 to 2010
Business Program Manager GE Capital – 2004 to 2006
Business Program Manager NBC Universal – 2004 to 2006
Services Technology Leader – 2010 to 2015
Digital Twin General Manager & Chief Engineer – 2015 to Present 3
… about 37 years ago … I was in the USA Navy
But Went into Industry and did Projects for the Military
Submarine Operational
Automation System Seawolf Submarine BSY-2 Interactive Electronic Technical Manuals and Electronic Classrooms
… and somewhat related
Throughout Have Developed or Led Dozens of
Projects that Involve Modeling
Satellite Orbit Control Software Monitoring & Diagnostics of Industrial Equipment
Financial Quantitative Risk Management
Image Sources: : https://www.photonics.com/images/Web/Articles/2013/6/12/LAS__PhotonThrust.jpg
Outline
➢ The Path to Digital Twin
➢ Digital Twin Defined and Explained
➢ Digital Twin Impact at GE
➢ Three Digital Twin Actual Examples
➢ Tutorial: How to Build a Digital Twin
© 2018 General Electric. Not to be copied, distributed, or reproduced without prior approval. 7
GE’s Path to Digital Twin
2010s
“Remaining
System of
Useful Life”
Individual Assets
2000s Assets
“Prognostics”
1990s
“M&D Build Out”
2015+
1980s • Now answering the “Digital Twins”
“Break & Fix” • Now answering the question? “When will it
• Now answering many questions:
question? “What will break?”
“Can I run the asset hotter?”,
break?” • Examples: GE Power
“When should I Inspect?”, “When
• Systems still Reactive • Examples: Early OnLine CBM
should I replace?”
• Online centers built Warning Systems • Tech: Prior Methods,
• Enables What-If Scenarios, System
out across GE • Tech: Prior Methods, Deep Learning, Usage
Optimization
• CSA Cost Productivity Machine Learning, Based Lifing
• Examples: GE Power Efficiency
becomes business Statistical Optimizer, GE Aviation Analytics
• 1st M&D Systems model Based Maintenance
answer the • Tech: Mix of Neural • Tech: Prior Methods, Cloud
question? “What Networks, Case- Computing, Learning
Happened?” Based, & other
• Tech: Rule-Based
• Examples: GETS Physics and Data Physics Models with
Diesel Locomotive Rules
Diagnostics Based Models Learning Ecosystem 8
Digital Twin Defined and Explained
What is a Digital Twin?
Physical Asset Digital Twin
A Learning Digital Model 1 Per asset model
2 Business outcomes
f(x) 3 Continuously learns
Transfer Function 4 Scalable
5 Adaptable
Apps
Physics Models + Machine
Learning
Digital Twin Increases Productivity and Achieves Better Outcomes for Customers
5 Criteria for Analytic to be Digital Twin
Drives Business Outcomes • Revenue
• Cost
GE’s Digital Twin must drive demonstrable business value and outcomes
• Customer Experience
Per Asset/Process/Person
GE’s Digital twin is applied to individual assets, systems, process or person
Continuously Learns Σ
Asset
Data
GE’s Digital Twins continuously learn from new data to improve business outcomes Learning
Algorithm
Scalable
GE’s Digital Twins are scalable so as to be able to run millions of them
Run Millions of Twins
Adaptable
GE’s Digital Twins are adaptable to other parts or asset classes, new scenarios or factors
GE To Non-GE
Digital Twin Impact at GE:
Supportability of the GE
Installed Base of Industrial
Assets
The GE Installed Base of Industrial Assets
> 34,000 > 20,000 > 20,000 > 10,000 > 200,000
Units Units Units Units Units
GE Manages Over 300,000 Industrial Assets Daily
Transactional Service vs Contractual
Service Agreements:
• Transactional Service: Traditional Parts &
Services. Based on a per incident basis.
• Contractual Service Agreement: Based on a
multi-year time period. Customer pays for
asset usage and transfers maintenance risk.
Services Levers
Services Profit = Services Revenue - Services Cost
1. Reduce the Cost of Servicing
2. Reduce the Frequency of Servicing
KNOW EVERYTHING YOU CAN ABOUT THE ASSET
15
Reducing the Frequency of Service
A Generic Industrial Asset Example
Today’s Maintenance Practice
EBI EBI EBI EBI
32K HGP 64K MI
0K 48K CI
16K CI
Tomorrow: move 16K CI to 32K CI
EBI EBI EBI EBI EBI EBI
32K CI 64K MI
0K
EBI = Borescope Inspection
CI = Combustion Inspection (Light)
HGP = Hot Gas Path (Medium) • Reduce cycle time (20%)
MI = Major Inspection (Heavy)
• Avoid forced outage ($2MM per outage) 16
GE’s Digital Transformation –
Many Years in the Making
© 2018 General Electric. Not to be copied, distributed, or reproduced without prior approval. 17
Aviation usage-based lifing
As designed
Lifing models
life consumption
high cost Remaining
parts
useful life
for high
SN1001
cost parts
• Parameters/sensors
• Configuration & history
• Operational environment
Unusual events
Engine model Signatures of
wear out
Prognostic
reasoners
adapted to Time to
SN 1001 failure
JRI BOD 06-07-1218
1,183,547 Twins and Increasing
Parts Twins
Rotor failure prediction
Product Twins
Steam turbine life optimization
Process Twins
Field engineer scheduling
System Twins
Time Model based optimizer
Digital impact – total lifecycle
Services Transformation
Work Inspection New Service Service Design Work, Fleet & ILS
Optimization Optimization Creation Optimization Impact Planning
Availability Customer Organisation & Data Performance
Efficiency User
Economics Customer Value experience
Factory
Manufacturing Factory Operations Supply Chain + Design for
Process Opt. Optimization Financial Opt. Manufacturing
Transformation
© 2017 General Electric. Not to be copied, distributed, or reproduced without prior approval. 20
Being Digital – Solving Problems,
Building Solutions
Digital Twin Examples in GE
Optimization Digital Twin – Locomotive
Track Topology Optimal Speed
Locomotive Data and Horse Power
Digital Twin
32,000 Gallons / Locomotive-Year Saved
174,000 Tons Emissions Reduced/Year
Continuous Prediction Digital Twin – Aviation Engine
Environmental
Conditions Digital Twin
Per Flight Data Physics + AI Models
Prior Condition
Optimized Inspection Time & Shop Time
Cumulative Distress
Harsh
environment
Nominal ABATE
environment
Cycles
Increased Availability to Customer
Saves Tens of $MM in Unnecessary Service Overhauls
Optimization Digital Twin – 6FA Turbine CC Plant
Plant operational data; Operational set points for
Weather data Plant Optimization
Key Technologies
Twins (gas turbines, bottoming cycle)
Learning
Optimizer
Automated Optimizer + Twin targeting 0.5% heat rate improvement
Learning System for Gold Data Curating
Improved Model Fidelity
Automated Inspection Data Quality & Imputation
Deep Learning changes Inspection Paradigm
Incoming image data Inspection Agent Inspection insight
Data Measurement
Preprocessing &
characterizatio
Multi-modal n
Localization
data fusion
Anomaly detection Classification
Automatic Labeling for part condition Deep Learning, physics knowledge & machine learning
to clean & impute the data (multiple strategies)
25
© 2018 General Electric. Not to be copied, distributed, or reproduced without prior approval.
Digital Twin Business Outcome: Improved Performance &
Reliability
Anomaly Detection Twin
Performance Digital Twin System
(Machine Learning + Physics Model)
Gas Turbine
Digital Twin
Forecasting
Adaptation
Machine Learning
High-Fidelity Digital Twins Business Outcome:
Asset specific, adaptable, scalable and • Early warning for failure prediction and diagnostics
continuous learning • Forecasting & performance optimization 26
© 2018 General Electric. Not to be copied, distributed, or reproduced without prior approval.
Business Outcome: Maintenance & Inspection Planning
Lifing Digital Twin
Single Component Cumulative Distress Model
Cumulative
Prioritize
Distress
inspections/maintenance and
proactively manage and
optimize fleet on per engine
basis
Saving tens of $MM in
unnecessary service overhauls
(per customer) Cumulative
Cycles
27
© 2018 General Electric. Not to be copied, distributed, or reproduced without prior approval.
Digital Twin – Value Creation Virtuous Cycle
Inspection Work Work Service Design New Service
Optimization Planning Optimization Optimization Impact Creation
Climb
$44MM CSA Pilot: Field CC plant Op.
Pilot: Proactive Temperature
$45MM Service Productivity on Service Optimization -
Bearing Failure now part of
Productivity Outage Engineer $1MM-$2MM
Avoidance GEnx S1B
Planning Productivity Fuel Saving
design
Customer Business and Data
Customer Value
Availability Efficiency Economics Performance Customer
Experience
Key Enabling Technologies for Digital Twin
Domain Data Physical + Digital
Industrial Analytics
Capabilities Engineering Models
Automated Data Pre-Processing Life & Operational Behavior Model Generation & Automation
Performance
Inspection Digital Flight
Sensor
Capabilities Thread Matching Engine
Data
Algorithm Model
Flight
Data
Knowledge Extraction
Estimates
Model Management
Digital Twin Framework - Technologies
Driving Speed, Scale, Accuracy & Differentiation
Outcomes/ Inspection Failure Work Work Service Design New Service
Action Optimization Prevention Planning Optimization Optimization Improvements Creation
Industrial
4
Power Plant O&G Renewables Healthcare Recip Engine Aircraft
Blueprints &
Continuous Performance Schedule Dispatch
Templates KPI Monitoring Early Warning
Prediction Optimization Optimization Optimization
Auto-DQ Auto-Feature Auto-Model Auto- Suggest Auto- Learn
AI-Based
3 Modeling
Technology
Machine
+ Physics Reliability Domain Text
Kernel
2
Motors Gearboxes Turbines MR Learning
1 Gold Data
Compressor Inverters
Heat
Exchangers
Ultrasound Image/Video
Analytics
Optimization Simulation
Catalog
Edge Runtime
(Edge, Inspection, Controls) (Cloud Foundry, Docker)
Digital Twin at Multiple Levels
Digital Twin
Reduced Order Models Higher-Complexity Models Offline, Thermodynamic, Part Life
Single Core Multi-Core Server/Cloud
mSec Minutes to Hours Hours to Days
Asset System Portfolio
Actuators
Sensors
Machines Plant Portfolio
Tutorial: How to Build a Digital Twin
Steps to Build a Digital Twin
1. Decide the business outcome you are trying to change. Start with
your Pareto of Pain.
2. Determine the model(s) that need to be built.
3. Build the team that builds, feeds, and validates the model.
4. Identify the data need to build, train, and validate the model.
5. If the model does not meet the need, determine why not. Is proper
data unavailable?
6. Determine computing requirements.
7. Build process for model operationalization.
33
Digital Twin Build, Run, & Manage Process
Build Integrate Publish Configure Deploy Run Monitor Learn
1) Build, Orchestrate 4) Configure 5) Deploy & 6) Run
Runtime
Data EDA Analytic
(models,
f(x) analytics,
workflows, data
services)
2) Integrate & Validate 3) Publish 7) Monitor & 8) Learn
Analytic
Catalog f(x)
Analytic f(x)
Knowledge Graph &
Analytic Repository f(x)
GE Internal
Digital Twin Example: Combined Cycle Power
Plant (CCPP) Output Prediction
Build a Digital Twin for a particular CCPP that predicts the
Power Output using using public data from:
http://archive.ics.uci.edu/ml/datasets/Combined+Cycle+Power
+Plant
Digital Twin Build for Output Prediction
Temperature
Expected X
Variables
Historical Ambient Pressure
Build / Deployed
CCPP Model
Validate
operational
data Twin
Model
Relative Humidity
Exhaust Vacuum
Training Data Power Predictions
Temp ExhaustVacuum AmbientPressure RelativeHumidity EnergyOutput Temp AmbientPressure RelativeHumidity ExhaustVacuum EnergyOutput_predicted
9.44 40 1015.62 81.16 471.32 Regression Model 23.25 1008.05 71.36 71.29 438.7847826
23.49 49.3 1003.35 77.96 442.76 13.87 1007.45 81.52 42.99 466.6762397
4.99 39.04 1020.45 78.89 472.52
• Lasso Regression 16.91 1013.32 79.87 43.96 462.0567857
18.24 58.46 1017.38 86.92 449.63 • R-squared 0.958 10.09 1012.99 72.59 37.14 475.563
27.49 63.78 1015.43 47.45 445.66 12.72 1013.45 86.16 40.6 471.8331579
13.61 41.16 1020.49 75.09 462.67
• Correlation 0.98 17.77 1020.11 81.51 52.9 456.9463333
Combined Cycle Power Plant (CCPP) Output Prediction
Demonstration
Hot Intake Manifold Prognosis (EVO/FDL Locomotives)
(Modular Workflow)
GE Internal
Hot Manifold Prognosis: Objectives
Asset
Locomotives (models EVO & FDL)
Objective
• Develop a model to proactively predict road failures due to rise in manifold
air temperatures.
• Reduce the unscheduled outage & increase the availability to customers.
• Increase coverage of existing RX while ensuring an accuracy of ~90%.
Business Impact
• 55 mission failures EVO Tier 2 & 3 cooling system for year 2016
• 66 mission failures for 2015
• $15K average cost incurred by customer for each failure
Digital Twin Build for Detection
Turbo inlet temp
Actual Manifold
Air Temperature
Ambient air temp
Anomaly
Historical Gross_HP
Residuals Detectors
Locomotive (Rule-based)
operational Engine Speed
Build /
data
Validate
Turbo Speed
Twin
Predict Manifold
Model Manifold Air Temperature
Water Inlet Temp Air Temperature Anomalies
Main Air Pressure
Preturbine Temp-1525
Preturbine Temp-1526
Locomotive Hot Manifold Anomaly Detection
Demonstration
Aircraft Engine Overhaul Level: A Classification Example
Asset
Aircraft Engine
Objective
Develop a model to predict the overhaul level: Light, Medium, Heavy
Business Impact
Keep overhaul Turn-Around-Time low by anticipating parts needed based on
recommended workscope level
Digital Twin Build for Overhaul Classification
Wear Level
Incoming Engine Parameters
Region Dust
Workscope
Inspections
Aircraft Build / Level
Engine Validate Recommendation
Water Washes
Data Lake Twin
Classifier
Remaining EGT
Predict Engine
Derate Deterioration
Prior Workscope Level
Wear Level 1=vhigh, 2=high, 3 =med, 4=low
Region Dust 1=vhigh, 2=high, 3 =med, 4=low
Inspections 2, 3, 4, 5 (# of inspections)
Water Washes 2, 4, 5 (# of washes)
Remaining EGT small, med, big
Derate Low, Med, High
Prior Workscope Level heavy, med, low
Aircraft Engine Workscope Classification Demonstration
Considerations on Building Digital
Twins
