1.

-
a) Regres. Lineal
DEMANDA PRONOSTICO EMC DMA
1 500 420.9090909091 6255.3719 79.0909091
2 350 401.8181818182 2685.12397 51.8181818
3 250 382.7272727273 17616.5289 132.727273
4 400 363.6363636364 1322.31405 36.3636364
5 450 344.5454545455 11120.6612 105.454545
6 350 325.4545454545 602.479339 24.5454545
7 200 306.3636363636 11313.2231 106.363636
8 300 287.2727272727 161.983471 12.7272727
9 350 268.1818181818 6694.21488 81.8181818
10 200 249.0909090909 2409.91736 49.0909091
6018.18182 68

b) Brown: F= 500 alfa= 0.6

DEMANDA PRONOSTICO DMA

1 500 500 0
2 350 500 150
3 250 410 160
4 400 314 86
5 450 365.6 84.4
6 350 416.24 66.24
7 200 376.496 176.496
8 300 270.5984 29.4016
9 350 288.23936 61.76064
10 200 325.295744 125.295744
93.9593984
 c)Holt: A1= 500 T1=
ALFA= 0.3 beta=
a= 440 DEMANDA A1 T1 PRONOSTICO
b= -19.090909 1 500 500 0 500
r2= 0.33316545 2 350 455 -4.5 500
3 250 390.35 -10.515 450.5
4 400 385.8845 -9.91005 379.835
5 450 398.182115 -7.6892835 375.97445
6 350 378.34498205 -8.9040684 390.4928315
7 200 318.608639524 -13.987296 369.440913605
8 300 303.234940569 -14.125936 304.6213436704
9 350 307.376303084 -12.299206 289.109004406
10 200 266.553967752 -15.151519 295.0770967887

d) Hacer el pronostico con mejor metodo según DAM

Por regresion lineal

0
0.1
DMA
0
150
200.5
20.165
74.02555
40.4928315
169.440914
4.62134367
60.8909956
95.0770968
81.5213731
2.-