Market Profile

J. Peter Steidlmayer developed

Market Profile in the 1980s in
conjunction with the Chicago
Board of Trade. Traders who
use it say that they get an in-
depth understanding of the
market, contributing to
improved trading. Many factors
can be monitored from Market
Profile.
Market Profile is not an
indicator in the typical sense.
It doesn’t provide buy/sell
recommendations but acts
more like a decision-support
tool. It organizes the data so
that you can understand who
is in control of the market,
what is perceived as fair
value, and the direction of the
price move. It is possible to
extract enough information
from Market Profile for you to
Market Profile Basics

The concept of Market Profile stems

from the idea that markets have a
form of organization determined by
time, price, and volume. Each day, the
market will develop a range for the
day and a value area, which
represents an equilibrium point where
there are an equal number of buyers
and sellers.
In this area, prices never stay
stagnant. They are constantly
diverging, and Market Profile records
this activity for traders to interpret.
Market Profile Structure
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Second level
● Third level

● Fourth level

● Fifth level

The structure of Market Profile follows

that of a normal distribution curve of
price occurrences.
Market Profile Structure

§ Market Profile is based on the normal

distribution curve, wherein approximately
70% of the values fall within one standard
deviation of the average. If you rotate the
normal distribution curve so that price is
along the vertical axis and time on the
horizontal axis (as shown in previous figure),
you have the structure of Market Profile.
A normal distribution curve
assumes that the number of
occurrences follow a bell-
shaped curve. Anyone who
has traded in the markets,
however, knows that prices
never follow a definite
pattern; in fact, you rarely
see a normal distribution.
What you do see are skewed
distribution of prices, which
makes it possible to see the
price at which most of the
trades actually took place.
This provides significant clues
about the direction of prices
and is the groundwork for
understanding Market Profile.
In theory, this helps the
trader identify where prices
are in relation to values.
Monitoring price distribution
over time gives insight into
what levels are considered
fair and unfair. You may take
advantage of this information
and identify good trading
opportunities.
Volume is the key to
understanding Market Profile.
If prices move away from the
value area but volume starts to
dry up, it is likely that prices
will move back to the value
area.
Such a movement indicates
that sellers are not happy that
prices are below value and
buyers are not happy that
prices are above value. Trading
If, on the other hand, prices
diverge from the value area
with increasing trading
activity, that indicates
market participants are re-
evaluating their idea of value.
By observing market activity
through Market Profile, you
can get a grasp of who is in
control of the market and
determine which way the
market is likely to move.
Watching it Develop
The development of
Market Profile can be
seen during the course
of the trading day in
Figure. Market Profile
is made up of time
price opportunities
(Tpos), which are
represented by letters.
Each letter represents
one half-hour of the
trading day. In the
example in Figure the
periods are
represented with
letters A to J, with A
Market Profile Range
The first hour of trading sets the general pattern for the day and is
your first opportunity to view market activity. It is known as the
Initial Balance.
The height of the entire profile that is, the high to the low is known
as the Price range.
On occasion, prices go above or below the initial balance. This is
known as a range extension. In this example, the range extends
below the initial balance, indicating a seller range extension.
The price range where 70% of the trading activity takes place, one
standard deviation from the mean, is the Value area.
The point of control is the longest line of Tpo’s closest to the
centre of the range.
When you have a series of single letters on either extreme, it is
known as a single-print buying/selling tail.
Value Calculation
Value area can be calculated using either
volume or time price opportunity (TPO)
count. Here’s the calculation using the TPO
count:
•Count the total number of TPOs, including

single prints.
•Calculate 70% of this number.

•Identify the point of control (the longest line

of TPOs closest to the center of the range)

and note its TPO count.
•Add the TPOs of the two prices above and

below the point of control. The TPOs of the

two with the greater number should be
added to the TPOs of the point of control.
•Continue this process till the total number of

TPOs counted reaches 70% of the total

number of TPOs. The same methodology can
be used to calculate the value area using
volume. See sidebar for the application of
the calculation.
Total TPOs = 131
70% of 131 = 91.7
TPOs of the point of control = 11
TPO count: 11 + 20 + 18 + 16 + 14 + 9 + 6
= 94
Buying and Selling
Buying and Selling
Traders react differently to prices at different
times, so it is important to recognize the type of
activity that is taking place. There are two broad
categories of buying and selling activities known
as initiative and responsive. Differentiating
between the two is important, and the structure of
Market Profile will provide clues to the type of
activity taking place.
To determine which activity is taking place, you
must compare the current day’s profile to that of
the previous day (Previous Figure). If traders take
the initiative to move prices higher or lower than
the previous day’s value area, the action indicates
that the activity is initiative. If, on the other hand,
selling activity is dominant when prices are higher
than the previous day’s value area, or buying
Buying and Selling
Comparing the current day’s profile to those of previous
days enables the market participant to recognize the
changes from one day to the next and observe changes in
market participation and attempted divergence of price
from value. Such an approach will provide clues about
whether the market action is occurring in a trending or
bracketing (trading range) market and reveal whether
movement is likely to be met with acceptance or rejection.
You can spot a trend by looking at the movement of the
value area. If it moves in one clear direction, either up or
down, you know that the market is in a trend. A range
market is one in which prices move back and forth between
two price levels that act as support and resistance. When
the value area steadily moves in one direction, this means
that the movement in price is being accepted. If, however,
the value area is overlapping the previous value area, you
can conclude that the trend is slowing down and starting to
find balance. In a ranged market, both the other- timeframe
buyers and sellers are responsive. When prices reach the
Conclusion
Market Profile reveals several factors that
provide you with an idea of the trading activity
taking place in the markets. Monitoring the
market action will enable you to determine the
type of day that is developing, whether a price
trend has started, what the value area is, the type
of activity (initiative or responsive) taking place,
whether the activity is continuing or changing
from the previous day, and whether the market is
trending or ranged. Combining Market Profile with
indicators such as moving averages can help you
create a successful trading strategy.

RESOURCES AND RELATED READING

Dalton, James F., and Eric T. Jones [1995]. “Market Logic And The
Market Profile: An Introduction To Technical Applications,”
Robert Dalton [1990]. Mind Over Markets: Power Trading With