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Risk Weighted Assets Capital Management 2016 PDF
Risk Weighted Assets Capital Management 2016 PDF
Accordingly, banks hoping to maximize their returns are re-considering their mix of assets. Banks
may no longer be able to enjoy the benefit of some previously profitable activities due to post-crisis
regulations, such as proprietary trading eliminated under the Volcker Rule, but they can still
achieve higher profitability by reassessing the mix of their permissible activities.
The largest US banks (i.e., the eight US G-SIBs1) have been focused on balance sheet optimization
for some time now. Their efforts have included the following: identifying which new capital or
liquidity regulations are binding constraints on the profitability of their activities (inclusive of the
varying annual impact of the Federal Reserve’s CCAR stress testing2); reducing some activities and
increasing others; and improving their data quality to sharpen analytical capabilities.3
Although the eight US G-SIBs may benefit from this paper, our analysis focuses more on assisting
the smaller systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs)4 in evaluating the profitability of
their asset mixes relative to capital and liquidity charges (see the Appendix for the list of
institutions we considered). In particular, we assess systemically important regional banks because
they share similar core-banking business models, allowing for more meaningful comparative
analysis.
Our approach assesses the relationship between return on assets (ROA) and risk-weighted assets
(RWA) density (i.e., the ratio of a bank’s RWA to its notional on-balance sheet assets). Currently,
there is no industry consensus on the “optimal” level of RWA density that maximizes ROA. This is
because there are many factors which influence ROA differences between banks. However, our
analysis of historical ROA and RWA densities of regional banks indicates that, as an empirical
matter, a fairly narrow range of RWA density exists wherein some regional banks have maximized
ROA relative to the level of economic risk taken (as measured by volatility of returns). We find this
narrow range of RWA density by applying Modern Portfolio Theory, a tool traditionally used for
asset management, to the banking industry.
Although this narrow band of RWA density is not the Background
cause of maximized ROAs, the results of our analysis
indicate the loan portfolio characteristics that are The decreased level of returns among US SIFIs since the
common to those regional banks that maximize ROA 2008 crisis can be largely attributed to two factors:
relative to economic risk. We then suggest that banks, growing regulatory constraints and the post-crisis low
using their internal data, can extend our methodology to interest rate environment.
a more granular analysis of their individual asset
portfolios in order to improve their profitability. As shown in Figure 1, new regulatory constraints have
increased banks’ costs while limiting their revenue
This A closer look analyzes systemically important US streams. Although the safety and soundness benefits of
regional banks’ RWA densities relative to their returns, stricter regulation (e.g., lower cost of capital due to
describes the loan portfolio features of the top increased investor confidence) mitigates some of the
performing banks, and provides a way for banks to costs imposed by regulatory requirements, the net result
extend our analysis to their own balance sheets. so far has been reduced profitability.
Capital
Liquidity/
Revenues Expenses funding
costs Required
RWA
capital
Enhanced prudential
standards & Stress testing
Derivatives reform
Resolution
Volcker rule
Extent of impact
High Medium Low
In response to these constraints and to improve their In addition to new regulatory requirements, firms’
capital positions, banks in recent years have undertaken profitability have also been reduced by the
de-risking strategies to remove risky assets from their macroeconomic realities of post-crisis financial markets,
balance sheets. While these efforts have resulted in especially low interest rates. This impact is evidenced by
significant improvements in asset quality (as evidenced declining net interest margin (NIM), which measures the
by reduced loan loss provisions and lower net charge- difference between interest revenue and interest
offs) they have also reduced returns, since less risky expense. NIM has remained at low levels since the
assets tend to generate lower yields. financial crisis, greatly impacting regional banks because
they are particularly reliant on the spread between
interest earning assets and interest bearing liabilities.
In an effort to improve their overall returns, banks have We do not use ROE to measure profitability so that we
focused on growing elements of non-interest income, may focus on the profits generated from a bank’s assets
such as fee income, and on controlling non-interest without the influence of the bank’s capital structure.
expenses. However, regulatory pressures and low Using ROE would enable a more levered bank to display
interest rates have nonetheless reduced return on equity greater profitability than a more well-capitalized bank
(ROE) at the US SIFIs considered in this analysis by over even if the two firms have identically productive assets.
50% between 2006 and 2015.
RWA density
A window into the optimized The metric against which we compare ROA, RWA
balance sheet density, is a ratio that compares a bank’s RWA (the
ratio’s numerator) to its notional on-balance sheet assets
In light of these regulatory constraints and low interest (the ratio’s denominator). A ratio approaching 1
rates, senior management at banks has understandably generally indicates a high level of risk-taking in the eyes
focused its attention in the search for the right mix of of regulators (since RWA uses regulator-prescribed risk
activities that maximize profits. Our analysis assesses weights) while a ratio well below 1 indicates lower risk-
balance sheet optimization efforts through two key taking. RWA density can also be thought of as a bank’s
metrics which indicate profitability and regulatory leverage ratio divided by its risk-based capital ratio, as
capital charges – namely, ROA and RWA density. depicted in Figure 3.
1.40
1.24
1.20 1.10
1.00
0.83
0.80 0.70
0.72
0.60
0.52
0.40
0.37
0.32
0.20
0.00
Regional (17 SIFIs) Universal (6 SIFIs) Custody (3 SIFIs) Specialty (3 SIFIs)
Median
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
Regional Universal Custody Speciality
Given the disparity of this data across the four categories leverage and risk-weighted capital ratios equal to their
of banks, we opted to focus on our analysis on the regulatory minimums, thereby resulting in a 0.59
regional category of banks. This focus will allow for more “optimal” point.9 While this may be a reasonable starting
meaningful insight into the relationship between ROA point, the “optimal” RWA density calculated by this
and RWA density because of the quantity of banks in the method fails to consider a number of significant firm-
regional category and the strong comparability of their specific factors, including necessary capital buffers to
business models and risk-taking behaviors. While it account for CCAR’s annual impact and the impact on
might be reasonable to also include the more comparable returns from other regulations (such as new liquidity
segments of banks in the other SIFI categories (i.e., core constraints as part of Basel III implementation10 and
lending activities), different SIFI categories face different others listed in Figure 1).
binding regulatory constraints that may impede
meaningful comparative analysis. For example, because There is little doubt that increasing RWA density tends
the universal banks are G-SIBs, they are subject to much to increase ROA (up to a certain point). Figure 6 depicts
more stringent capital requirements in the form of an a scatterplot of quarterly RWA density and quarterly
RWA-based capital surcharge, leverage capital ROA for regional banks from 2009 to 2015 and includes
surcharge,7 and Total Loss Absorbing Capacity (TLAC) a best-fit trend line (with a 95% confidence interval). The
requirements.8 Nonetheless, the analytical approach trend line evidences a positive relationship between
described in this paper can be applied by G-SIBs to their RWA density and ROA (i.e., as RWA density increases,
commercial and retail banking loan portfolios as well. ROA also increases).11
15%
10%
5%
ROA
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
0.35 0.45 0.55 0.65 0.75 0.85 0.95 1.05 1.15 1.25
RWA density
As a result of these realities, it is necessary to look more each of the seventeen banks gives us a total of 408 data
closely at the relationship between ROA and RWA points (i.e., 17 banks x 24 quarters). Although these data
density. We believe that a strategy for maximizing ROA points represent the point-in-time returns of individual
would be greatly complemented by an understanding of banks, they can also be viewed as the returns of 408
the range of RWA densities at which banks have been different portfolios of assets.
able to maximize returns relative to the economic risk
taken to achieve those returns (i.e., the volatility of those We then create a matrix of the covariance coefficients
returns, rather than regulator-prescribed risk weights). among the ROAs of Bank 1 through Bank 17. This
Therefore, we apply Modern Portfolio Theory – a tool covariance matrix reflects how any two banks’ ROAs
traditionally used by asset managers – to our regional move in relation to one another. With the goal of
banks in the next section. creating a portfolio that maximizes return, while
minimizing volatility through diversification benefits, we
Applying Modern Portfolio Theory to then identify the most efficient portfolios by testing every
combination of banks’ ROA and standard deviation
maximize ROA relative to volatility (i.e., by adjusting the weightings of Bank 1, Bank 2, etc.,
Our objective in using Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) is to create “new” banks with portfolio characteristics taken
to identify the regional banks which have most from our sample banks).
successfully maximized ROA while minimizing risk,
which we will measure as their quarterly volatility from Selecting the maximum ROA at each point of standard
2009 – 2015. Using MPT, we can compare quarterly deviation yields the efficient frontier displayed in Figure
ROA with its associated volatility, and then graph that 7A. The points along this curve represent the maximized
relationship in order to produce an “efficient frontier” returns for a portfolio (i.e., an efficient blend of banks)
curve. ROAs which fall below the efficient frontier will be for a given amount of risk (standard deviation) based on
suboptimal because it is possible to achieve a greater our portfolio constructions. Consistent with MPT, this
ROA for the incurred level of risk. efficient frontier represents bank portfolios drawn from
our population with the highest Sharpe Ratios (i.e., the
To create the efficient frontier, we first calculate the average ROA greater than the risk-free rate divided by
mean and standard deviation (as a measure of the the standard deviation of the ROA) indicating the
variability or risk) for each bank’s ROA over the 24 greatest achievable returns for given levels of risk.
quarters between 2009 and 2015. The quarterly ROAs of
Figure 7A and the left side of the table under it show that Having generated this efficient frontier, we are now
the ROA of each portfolio increases as standard ready to return to our goal of finding a range of RWA
deviation increases, which is to be expected. Far more density that has been empirically aligned with
interestingly, looking across the table shows that the maximized ROA. Since we have all of the SIFIs’ RWA
majority of the efficient frontier – the portion of the densities from 2009 to 2015 (graphically depicted in
graph from point A to point C – is made up of just four Figures 4 and 5), we can incorporate that data for the top
banks (referred to as Banks 1 to 4). performers into Figure 7B. Figure 7B depicts, for
instance, that Portfolio A has an RWA density of 0.8284.
Portfolio A, for instance, consists of 28% of Bank 1’s total This number was calculated by taking the weighted
assets, 9% of Bank 2’s total assets, and 63% of Bank 3’s average of the RWA densities of Banks 1, 2, 3, and 4,
total assets. This was the ideal combination of slices of which is based on the percentage of their ROA included
these banks to maximize ROA at a relatively low level of in the portfolio and are enumerated in the table under
risk (i.e., an ROA of 3.6% with a portfolio standard Figures 7A and 7B.12
deviation of only 0.079). Portfolios B and C add Bank 4’s
assets, which increases these portfolios’ risk and ROA. Figure 7B also shows that Portfolio B has the highest
Since these four banks dominate their counterparts RWA density at 0.8445. This is a somewhat surprising
along the efficient frontier, we henceforth refer to them result because it suggests that a narrow band of RWA
as top performers. densities (i.e., from 0.8284 to 0.8445) has maximized
ROAs with minimized volatility. This range is notably
higher than that hypothesized by equity research
analysts (i.e., 0.59, as mentioned earlier). It is also
significantly narrower than the wide range of regional
banks’ RWA densities depicted in Figure 4.
Figure 8: Top vs. bottom performing banks’ loan portfolio composition (2009 – 2015)
9.6% 7.3%
6.7%
11.7% 0.4%
3.3%
23.1%
20.9%
34.4%
24.1%
10.1%
12.7%
19.4% 15.5%
Top performers Bottom performers
1st lien 2nd Lien/Heloc CRE C&I Credit card Other consumer Other loans
Endnotes
1. The eight US global systemically important banking institutions (G-SIBs) include the US’s six major universal banks and two of the
US’s three major custody banks.
2. The Fed’s annual Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) is dependent on the Fed’s macroeconomic scenarios and
other assumptions which change from year to year; therefore, CCAR unpredictably impacts the amount of regulatory capital that
banks must hold each year. See PwC’s First take, Five key points from the Fed’s 2016 CCAR (June 2016).
3. For more information on the balance sheet optimization efforts of G-SIBs, please see our article “The Elephant Beyond Basel”
published in Banking Perspective by The Clearing House (Q2 2016).
4. According to the Dodd-Frank Act, SIFIs are defined as bank holding companies with $50 billion or more in total consolidated
assets.
5. Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED).
6. Although the Appendix lists 30 total banks and 18 regional banks, our analysis centers on 17 regional banks throughout the rest of
this paper because one of the banks’ ROA and RWA density were outliers and caused misleading means and other results.
7. See PwC’s First take, Key points from the Fed’s final G-SIB surcharge rule (July 2015).
8. See PwC’s First take, Ten key points from the Fed’s final TLAC rule (December 2016).
9. Given the previously cited enhanced requirements for G-SIBs, this 59% figure would likely differ for G-SIBs.
10. These liquidity constraints include the recently proposed Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) and the finalized liquidity coverage
ratio (LCR). See PwC’s First take: US Net Stable Funding Ratio (April 2016) and PwC’s First take: Liquidity coverage ratio
(September 2014).
11. The trend line assumes a linear relationship between ROA and RWA density, and has a positive slope of 0.0491 and statistical
significance demonstrated by a p-value of 5.34e-7.
12. More specifically, we used the quarterly RWA densities associated with the banks’ quarterly ROAs that led to the efficient frontier.
13. The top performing banks, on average, increased their share price by 144% from 2009 to 2015, whereas other banks within the
same time period only increased their share price by 108%. Source: SNL financial.
14. Source: Bloomberg.
15. The annual number of defaults has decreased from 2,284 in 2010 to 500 in 2015. Source: Standard & Poor’s.
Additional information
Armen Meyer
Financial Services Advisory Managing Director
646 531 4519
armen.meyer@pwc.com
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