Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Justin Robinson
University of the West Indies, Cave Hill Campus
Copyright © Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies, UWl (Cave Hill)
2005 ''
Journal of Eastern Caribbean Studies
Introduction
Literature Review
There is a wide and varied literature on corporate dividend policy, and the author
does not attempt to provide an exhaustive review of this literature here.'
Instead, the author tries to outline the main arguments, issues and findings in
the literature to date. For convenience, the literature review is organised
around what the author perceives to be the four main issues addressed in
the literature to date, namely, the manner of determining dividend payments,
dividend relevance, inter-country differences in corporate dividend policy
and the emerging issue of 'disappearing dividends'.
In terms of the manner in which corporate managers go about setting
dividend payments, Lintner's (1956) paper remains the most authoritative
study to date. Lintner's study essentially drew three conclusions about
dividend policy among US firms. Firstly, firms have long-run target
dividend payout ratios expressed as a percentage of earnings, secondly,
managers believe that investors prefer corporations that follow stable
dividend policies and accordingly smooth dividend payments over time
(managers believe it is better to pay two moderate level dividends than to
pay a high one today followed by a low one next period) and thirdly,
managers focus more on changes in dividends than on the level of dividends
(managers believe that announcing changes in the level of dividend
payments provides important information to investors and must be carefully
considered). Lintner's behavioural model suggests that the change in
dividends is a function of the target dividend payout less the last period's
dividend payout multiplied by the speed of an adjustment factor. Lintner
(1956) subsequently tests his propositions andfindsthat the partial adjustment
model predicts dividend payments more accurately than naive models.
' The interested reader is referred to an excellent review by Lease et al. (2000).
4 Journal of Eastern Caribbean Studies
in their survey of corporate managers in the USA report that the large majority
of managers view share repurchases as a more flexible means of returning
cash to investors than cash dividends and share repurchases are now used
extensively as an alternative or supplement to cash dividends. The authors
also report that among firms in their sample that do not pay dividends, 70
percent say they never plan to initiate dividends, and among firms that
currently pay dividends, the overwhelming majority state that if they had not
started paying dividends they would currently use repurchases instead of
dividends as a means of returning cash to investors.
In conclusion, while dividends appear to be 'disappearing' in developed
countries, the 'dividend puzzle' noted by Black (1976) remains a major
unresolved issue in the corporate finance literature. While the dominant
academic model suggests that under conditions of perfect capital markets
dividend policy is irrelevant to the value ofthe firm, the majority of financial
managers and investors appear to believe that dividend policy is relevant
and stable dividends are preferred. The dominant academic explanations
for dividend relevance, namely, information asymmetry, agency costs and
tax preferences of explanations have at best a mixed record. The Lintner
model appears to be a robust explanation ofthe manner in which managers
in developed countries determine their dividend payments. However, the
limited researchfi"omdeveloping countries suggests that dividend policy is
less stable than in developed countries and the Lintner model may not be as
widely applicable.
Reliable information on the dividends per share and earnings per share for
publicly traded firms in Barbados is available for the period 1985-2001 in the
Dividend Policy Among Publicly Listed Firms In Barbados 11
form of the annual Ernst and Young performance report. The study therefore
limits itself to this time period. Over this time period, there were 25 Barbadian
companies listed on the Securities Exchange of Barbados (BSE). Of the 25
companies traded over this period only 17 companies had at least a five-
year history of dividend payments, which is generally viewed as a minimum
for assessing dividend policy. The reason for this exclusion is to have enough
years of nonzero cash dividends for empirical analysis. The quantitative
analysis in the paper therefore confines itself to these 17 companies. This
information serves to provide factual information describing corporate
dividend policy in Barbados and allows one to test the Lintner model in the
Barbadian context.
Lintner (1956) built the following behavioural model in light of his survey
findings:
The preceding model in equation (3) is modified to test for stability in the
dividend policy of the companies listed on the BSE. As is the standard
practice in the financial economics literature, the Lintner model is modified
as per Fama and Babiak (1968), and estimated as:
In equation (4) DPS stands for dividends per share and EPS stands for
earnings per share. The per share values replace the variables in the original
Lintner formulation to account for frequent capital increases and bonus
dividend issues by firms.
Estimation Methodology
As has become common in recent years, panel data regressions are utilised
to test the Lintner model for companies listed on the BSE. In panel data
(pooled) regression, time-series and cross-sectional observations are
combined and estimated. Gujarati (1995) states that in the case ofa properly
specified model, pooled regression can provide more efficient estimation,
inference and even forecasts. Greene (1997) states 'the fundamental
advantage of panel data set over a cross section is that it will allow the
researcher far greater flexibility in modeling differences in behavior across
individuals.' Pindyck and Rubinfield (1998) also concur.
If there is no missing data for the cross sectional units over the
sample period, the sample is a called a balanced sample in a panel data
setting. However, the sample can be unbalanced where there are some
missing data for some of the cross-sectional units over the whole sample
period. Due to the fact that a number of the companies covered in this
study were listed on the BSE at different times and some were subsequently
de-listed, merged or acquired, the sample is unbalanced. For the 1985 to
2001 period the sample is unbalanced and the unbalanced number of pooled
observations is 260.
Dividend Policy Among Publicly Listed Firms In Barbados 13
The cover letter requesting participation in this study, along with a stamped
retum envelope and the survey instrument, was first mailed to the Chief
Financial Officer of the eighteen Barbadian firms^ listed on the Securities
Exchange of Barbados in August 2003. A second mailing was sent in January
2004 and by the end of March 2004, all 18 firms had responded to the
survey. The survey instrument also elicited a broad range of data about
publicly listed firms in Barbados.
As part of the study, fifteen one-on-one interviews with Chief
Financial Officers were conducted. The interviews complement the survey
information along several dimensions. Interviews allow the use of open-
ended questions, so the respondent's answers can dictate the direction of
the interview (versus pre-chosen questions in the survey). Interviews also
allow for 'give-and-take' and clarifications, which are not possible with a
traditional survey.
A major limitation ofthe study stemsfi-omthe small number of listed
companies in Barbados. The fact that there are only eighteen firms
effectively eliminates the value of statistical analysis of responses to the
survey questions in terms of various categories, due to the small sizes ofthe
groups providing particular responses. However, due to the fact that fifteen
ofthe eighteen publicly listed firms in Barbados participated in the study, the
fact that additional clarifications were generated through the interviews and
the use of supporting historical data on dividend payouts, the study is likely
to represent a thorough analysis of corporate dividend policy in Barbados,
despite the lack of statistical sophistication.
In this section some likely differences between publicly traded firms and
their business environment in Barbados and the firms typically studied in the
finance literature are presented. The author contends that the major
differences relate to firm size, sectoral distribution of firms, the degree of
shareholder concentration, the level of stock market microstructure
development and taxation policy. These features of equity trading and publicly
listed companies in Barbados may conceivably condition managers' and
shareholders' attitudes to dividends thereby infiuencing the dividend policies
of firms. These features are therefore elaborated upon in this section.
Of the publicly listed firms in Barbados, three had sales^ of less than $12.5
million, five had sales of between $12.5 and $49 million, six had sales of
between $50-$249 million and four had sales of between $250 and $450
million. Using standard international classifications^ all of the public listed
firms in Barbados would be classified as small firms. Brav et al (2003)
report that 51% of the firms in their sample of U.S. firms had sales of over
U.S. one billion dollars, while Brounen et al (2004) report that 25% of
European firms have sales over U.S. one billion dollars. Publicly listed
firms in Barbados are therefore typically smaller than their counterparts in
the US and Europe and this difference in relative size may well create some
differences in dividend policy.
The majority of publicly listed firms in Barbados are in the retail and wholesale
sectors, unlike the case of the USA and Europe where the majority of publicly
^ The sales figures quoted in this section are in United Sates dollars and represent
averages over the period. 1985 -2001.
'»Firms with sales of USA $ 1 billion or more are usually classified as large, those
with sales between $500 million and $ 1 billion as medium sized and firms with sales
of less than $500 million are classified as small.
Dividend Policy Among Publicly Listed Firms In Barbados 15
listed firms are in the manufacturing sector. Seven of the eighteen publicly
listed firms in Barbadian were in the RetailAVholesale sector, four were in
Banking/Finance/Insurance, three were in manufacturing, two Tourism, and
one each in Transport/Energy and Communication. Again, this difference
in sectoral distribution may well create some differences in dividend policy.
' The paper does not attempt to deal in depth with the issue of share repurchases
versus dividends which is a substantial topic in and of itself. The main point being
made is that the absence of share repurchases in Barbados along with the low level
of trading on the Barbados Stock Exchange appears to make the Barbadian equity
investor rather more reliant on dividends as a means of realising cash from holding
shares than investors in developed and other developing countries. This
environmental or contextual difference is likely to have some impact on corporate
dividend policy.
16 Journal of Eastern Caribbean Studies
by the fact that a number of the firms listed on the BSE are
associated through share ownership. For example, at the end of fiscal year
2001, the largest conglomerate Barbados Shipping and Trading owned shares
in the following listed companies. Banks Holdings Ltd. (24%) and Almond
Resorts (37%). In turn. Banks Holdings Ltd. owned 84% ofthe shares of
another listed company, Barbados Dairy Industries Ltd, while Goddard
Enterprises Ltd. owned at least 56% of West Indies Rum Distillery Ltd.
The extent of cross shareholding is refiected in the fact that nine of the
fifteen firms that responded to this question on the survey had their largest
shareholder listed on a stock exchange.
The available evidence also suggests that these large investors are
very well represented on the board of directors ofthe listed firms in which
they have a shareholding (Robinson, 2001). In addition, thefirmsand investors
often enjoy close relationships. The firms use each other as subcontractors
or suppliers of parts or products. Human ties and interlocking directorates
fiarther cement these relationships.
These two factors suggest that publicly listed firms in Barbados are
generally closely-held by a few dominant investors who are typically present
on the board of directors.
Given the dominance of large investors who are typically represented
on the board of directors and/or involved in management, agency costs would
appear to be less of an issue in the Barbadian context than suggested in the
corporate finance literature to date. Also, there is likely to be a prevalence
of direct cbannels of communication between firms and major shareholders.
This suggests that the information asymmetry problem noted in the corporate
finance literature is not likely to be especially severe for the large majority
of investors in the Barbadian context.
The fact that a significant number of shareholders are typically present
on the board of directors and/or management team or are closely related
raises the possibility that shareholders may have other sources of cash fiow
fi-om the firm other than dividends or capital gains in the form of salaries
and other perks. If this is so, it may also impact on the dividend policy
desired by shareholders.
Ballon and Tomita's (1988) characterisation ofthe Japanese investor
as being neither an outsider, nor an individual, nor particularly concerned by
the short-term may be a reasonably apt description ofthe dominant investors
Dividend Policy Among Publicly Listed Firms In Barbados 17
in Barbados. Following Ballon and Tomita (1988), the Barbadian firm listed
on the BSE may be construed as having four types of shareholders:
1. Stable, family and related company shareholders who are generally
well informed about the firms' prospects, have a prominent moni-
toring role and are unlikely to sell their shares for capital gains in
the regular course of affairs and may thus prefer a stable dividend;
2. Institutional investors who are generally well informed about the
firms' prospects, have a prominent monitoring role and are unlikely
to sell their shares for capital gains in the regular course of affairs
and may thus prefer a stable dividend;
3. Employee shareholders (largely through bonus shares) who are likely
to be relatively well informed about the firms' prospects, not inclined
to sell their shares and would like steadily increasing dividends;
4. A minority of'external investors' who are unlikely to be well informed
about the firms' prospects (may suffer from asymmetric information),
do not have a prominent monitoring role (may suffer agency costs),
are flexible in terms of selling their shares and are likely to be happy
with steadily increasing dividends.
18 Journal of Eastem Caribbean Studies
*The annual report does not list any investors as owning five percent or more of
the firm's shares
' The annual report lists five organisations as owning 5% or more of the firm's share
capital but the amounts are not disclosed.
Dividend Policy Among Publicly Listed Firms In Barbados 19
Also, to date publicly listed firms in Barbados have not used share
repurchases as a means of returning cash to shareholders. Interviews
conducted with Chief Financial Officers in Barbados reveal that while firms
sometimes repurchase shares so as to offset bonus shares issued to
employees, stock repurchases are not seen as an alternative form of cash
distribution to shareholders. As noted earlier in this paper, the phenomenon
of utilising share repurchases as a substitute for dividends has become so
pervasive in the USA that the notion of 'disappearing dividends' has emerged
as a major issue in the finance literature. The continued attachment to
dividends in Barbados is partly explained by the provisions in Section 2 of
the 'Take-Over Bid Regulations' of the Barbados Companies Act, which
effectively limits the number of shares a firm can repurchase to ten percent
of its equity capital. However, interviews with Chief Financial Officers in
Barbados reveal that restrictions aside, financial managers in Barbados do
not view share repurchases as an alternative to dividends nor as a means of
returning cash to investors. As pointed out by Gonzalez and Gonzalez (2004)
while share repurchase restrictions are common in Europe, firms in Europe
are increasingly using share repurchases, if rather more selectively than in
the case of the USA.^
The combination of thin trading, legal restrictions on share
repurchases and the apparent reluctance on the part of firms to undertake
share repurchases as a cash distribution strategy suggests that while equity
investors in developed countries (and a number of developing countries as
well) rely on a mix of capital gains, dividends and share repurchases as
sources of cash from their equity investments, equity investors in Barbados
are especially reliant on dividend payments as a source of cash from their
equity investments, which may have implications for the dividend policy
desired by investors.
should note that the ten percent restriction in Barbados is in line with the
restriction in most European countries.
Dividend Policy Among Publicly Listed Firms In Barbados 21
' Normal refers to income other than from investments. Such income is now referred
to as other income which captures the Barbadian situation where non-investment
income above $25,000 is taxed at the rate indicated. There is no capital gains tax in
Barbados, dividends are taxed at a rate of 12.5% while normal income above $25,000
is taxed at 35%.
'"The very high payout ratios in some years, arises from companies paying dividends
even when earnings were negative (in which case the payout ratio was capped at
100%) and paying stable dividends per share in the face of significant declines in
earnings per share.
22 Journal of Eastern Caribbean Studies
dividend raised in the financial economics literature does not yet appear to
apply in the Barbadian context. The data also suggests that firms are relatively
reluctant to cut dividends, even when faced with a decline in eamings. For
example, in 1990 while 10 firms recorded a decrease in EPS, only 1 fmns
reduced DPS, again in 1999,10 of the 18 firms recorded a decline in EPS but
only five firms reduced DPS. In a number of cases the DPS was unchanged
even though the EPS had changed.
A casual analysis ofthe historical data therefore suggests that dividends
are alive and well in Barbados, dividend policy is relatively sticky and managers
attempt to smooth dividends. The next section ofthe paper subjects this view to
a more rigorous test in the form ofthe Lintner model.
The Lintner model stands out as a rigorous model for testing the stability and
regularity of dividend policy. Table 6 presents the results ofthe estimation ofthe
Lintner model for publicly listed firms in Barbados. The intercept term is positive
and statistically significant indicating the reluctance of Barbadian firms to avoid
payment of dividends. The regression coefficients of current eamings (EPS.,)
and past dividends (DPS^^,,,) are highly significant. But the larger coefficient
and the associated t-statistic of DPS^^,,, imply the greater importance of past
dividends in determining the dividend payment, as compared to the current level
of eaming. The computed target payout ratio is 33%, which is somewhat lower
than the sample dividend payouts over the sample period. The speed of
adjustment is 0.48 indicating that there is significant level of dividend smoothing.
The data analysis therefore suggests that dividends are in no immediate
danger of disappearing in Barbados, and financial managers in Barbados like
their developed country counterparts engage in dividend smoothing and follow
stable dividend policies along the lines suggested by Lintner (1956). The results
appear to provide fiuther support for the robust nature ofthe Lintner model in
explaining the manner of setting dividend payments across a variety of countries
and firms. However, the results raise questions as to whether or not management
in fact targets a particular payout ratio as suggested by Lintner or a particular
DPS. These findings are subjected to further analysis and probing with the aid
of a questionnaire survey and interviews of financial managers in Barbados, the
results of which are presented in the following section.
Dividend Policy Among Publicly Listed Firms In Barbados 23
1991 13 5 3 8 4
1992 15 0 1 13 9
1993 16 10 8 5 3
1994 17 7 8 8 2
1995 18 13 9 5 2
1996 18 10 8 6 1
1997 18 12 13 6 1
1998 18 12 10 6 2
1999 18 8 7 10 5
2000 18 12 6 6 5
2001 18 8 5 10 8
Source: Author's Compilation
26 Journal of Eastem Caribbean Studies
relevant to the value ofthe firm in that they believe it affects both a firm's
stock price and its cost of capital'^ Thirteen ofthe responding firms (76%)
expressed agreement with the notion that 'a change in dividend policy affects
the value ofthe firm,' and 82% agree with the statement, 'a firm's dividend
policy affects its cost of capital.' In line with these views, sixteen (94%) of
the respondents agree that 'an optimal dividend policy strikes a balance
between current dividends and future growth that maximises stock price,'
and 71% of respondents agree that 'a firm should formulate its dividend
policy to produce maximum value for shareholders.' These views are
consistent with the findings of Baker, Farrelly and Edelman (1985), Baker
and Powell (1999) and Brav et al (2003) in their surveys on management
views about dividend policy in the USA.
Interpreting these views in terms of modem finance theory would
lead one to suggest that corporate managers in Barbados believe that one or
more ofthe assumptions of perfect capital markets are consistently violated
in the Barbadian context. In the finance literature a number of explanations
have been advanced for dividend relevance in light of the Modigliani and
Miller (1961) position. These explanations are namely, the bird-in-the-hand,
signalling, tax preference, and agency explanations.
'"•The author tried to spell out the academic view of signalling to the managers and
they expressed strong disagreement with that view.
30 Journal of Eastern Caribbean Studies
The survey contains two statements that provide an agency explanation for
paying cash dividends. The majority of respondents provide little support for
an agency explanation. This is, in the view ofthe author, not surprising given
the ownership structure of publicly listed firms in Barbados. Major shareholders
in publicly listedfirmsin Barbados often enjoy potentially powerful monitoring
rules due to their presence on the Board of Directors which creates little
incentive for the use of alternative monitoring devices. Again, one should
note that the responses provide little support for both the assumptions and
predictions of one ofthe leading academic theories of dividend policy.
managers generally agree that they in fact target the DPS rather than a payout
ratio.
These responses and views in Barbados, contrast with those of Baker
and Powell (1999) but are consistent with those of Brav et al (2003) in their
surveys of corporate managers in the USA. Brav et al (2003) report that
corporate managers in the USA appear to have changed this aspect of setting
dividend payments compared to the time of Lintner's (1956), in that the dividend
per share instead of the payout ratio appears to be the variable now targeted
by corporate managers in the U.S.A.
However, the survey responses do appear to confirm a belief in dividend
conservatism along the lines of Lintner (1956). Ninety-four percent of
respondents agree that "the market places a greater value on stable dividends
than stable payout ratios," 88% of respondents agree that 'a firm should avoid
changing its regular dividend if that change might have to be reversed in a
year or so,' and 94% agree that 'a firm should strive to maintain an uninterrupted
record of dividend payments.' These responses are consistent with the findings
of Baker and Powell (1999) and Brav et al (2003). It thus appears that
Lintner's notion of a sticky dividend policy is relevant in Barbados, but unlike
Lintner's postulation, the variable targeted appears to be the DPS rather than
the dividend payout.
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34 Journal of Eastern Caribbean Studies