0.

5
Awarded contract
2
250000 90000

Prepare proposal

-50000 20000

1 0.5
20000 Not awarded contract

0 -50000

Do not prepare proposal

0 0
Use mechanical method
80000
-120000 80000

0.5
Electronic success
150000
Try electronic method 0 150000

-50000 90000 0.5

Electronic failure
30000
-120000 30000

0.7
Magnetic success
120000
Try magnetic method 0 120000

-80000 84000 0.3

Magnetic failure
0
-120000 0

-50000

0
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind
0 TreePlan 0 0 0D
1 0 0E
2 0 0T
3 1D
4 1T
5 0 3T
6 0 3E
7 0 3E
8 6T
9 6T
10 7T
11 7T
NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row
2 1 2 0 0 0 25
2 3 4 0 0 0 18
0 0 0 0 0 0 32
3 5 6 7 0 0 10
0 0 0 0 0 0 27
0 0 0 0 0 0 2
2 8 9 0 0 0 9
2 10 11 0 0 0 19
0 0 0 0 0 0 7
0 0 0 0 0 0 12
0 0 0 0 0 0 17
0 0 0 0 0 0 22
Col Mark
1 1
5 1
5 1
9 1
9 1
13 1
13 1
13 1
17 1
17 1
17 1
17 1
 0.5
Awarded contract
2
$250,000 $90,000

Prepare proposal

-$50,000 $20,000

1 0.5
$20,000 Not awarded contract

$0 -$50,000

Do not prepare proposal

$0 $0
Use mechanical method
$80,000
-$120,000 $80,000

0.5
Electronic success
$150,000
Try electronic method $0 $150,000

-$50,000 $90,000 0.5

Electronic failure
$30,000
-$120,000 $30,000

0.7
Magnetic success
$120,000
Try magnetic method $0 $120,000

-$80,000 $84,000 0.3

Magnetic failure
$0
-$120,000 $0

-$50,000

$0
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind
0 TreePlan 0 0 0D
1 0 0E
2 0 0T
3 1D
4 1T
5 0 3T
6 0 3E
7 0 3E
8 6T
9 6T
10 7T
11 7T
NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row
2 1 2 0 0 0 25
2 3 4 0 0 0 18
0 0 0 0 0 0 32
3 5 6 7 0 0 10
0 0 0 0 0 0 27
0 0 0 0 0 0 2
2 8 9 0 0 0 9
2 10 11 0 0 0 19
0 0 0 0 0 0 7
0 0 0 0 0 0 12
0 0 0 0 0 0 17
0 0 0 0 0 0 22
Col Mark
1 1
5 1
5 1
9 1
9 1
13 1
13 1
13 1
17 1
17 1
17 1
17 1
 0.5
Awarded contract
2
$250,000

Prepare proposal

-$50,000

1 0.5
Not awarded contract

$0

Do not prepare proposal

$0
Use mechanical method

-$120,000

0.5
Electronic success

Try electronic method $0

-$50,000 0.5
Electronic failure Use mechanical method
1
$0 -$120,000

0.7
Magnetic success

Try magnetic method $0

-$80,000 0.3
Magnetic failure Use mechanical method
1
$0 -$120,000
 $80,000

$150,000

$30,000

$120,000

$0

-$50,000

$0
ID
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS S1
TreePlan 0 0 0D 2 1
0 0E 2 3
0 0T 0 0
1D 3 5
1T 0 0
0 3T 0 0
0 3E 2 8
0 3E 2 10
6T 0 0
6D 1 12
7T 0 0
7D 1 13
0 9T 0 0
0 11 T 0 0
S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
2 0 0 0 25 1 1
4 0 0 0 18 5 1
0 0 0 0 32 5 1
6 7 0 0 10 9 1
0 0 0 0 27 9 1
0 0 0 0 2 13 1
9 0 0 0 9 13 1
11 0 0 0 19 13 1
0 0 0 0 7 17 1
0 0 0 0 12 17 1
0 0 0 0 17 17 1
0 0 0 0 22 17 1
0 0 0 0 12 21 1
0 0 0 0 22 21 1
 0.5
Awarded contract
1
$250,000 $80,000
0.41335

Prepare proposal

-$50,000 $1,337
0.00887

1 0.5
$1,337 Not awarded contract
0.00887
$0 -$50,000
-0.39561

Do not prepare proposal

$0 $0
0.00000
Use mechanical method
$80,000
-$120,000 $80,000
0.41335
0.5
Electronic success
$150,000
Try electronic method $0 $150,000
0.63212
-$50,000 $78,307 0.5
0.40669 Electronic failure
$30,000
-$120,000 $30,000
0.18127
0.7
Magnetic success
$120,000
Try magnetic method $0 $120,000
0.55067
-$80,000 $73,035 0.3
0.38547 Magnetic failure
$0
-$120,000 $0
0.00000

-$50,000

$0
Label in cell on left is the
defined name of cell on right.

RT $150,000
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind
0 TreePlan 0 0 0D
1 0 0E
2 0 0T
3 1D
4 1T
5 0 3T
6 0 3E
7 0 3E
8 6T
9 6T
10 7T
11 7T
NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row
2 1 2 0 0 0 25
2 3 4 0 0 0 18
0 0 0 0 0 0 32
3 5 6 7 0 0 10
0 0 0 0 0 0 27
0 0 0 0 0 0 2
2 8 9 0 0 0 9
2 10 11 0 0 0 19
0 0 0 0 0 0 7
0 0 0 0 0 0 12
0 0 0 0 0 0 17
0 0 0 0 0 0 22
Col Mark
1 1
5 1
5 1
9 1
9 1
13 1
13 1
13 1
17 1
17 1
17 1
17 1
 0.5
Awarded contract
1
$250,000 $80,000
0.78714

Prepare proposal

-$50,000 $1,337
0.39357

1 0.5
$1,337 Not awarded contract
0.39357
$0 -$50,000
0.00000

Do not prepare proposal

$0 $0
0.38494
Use mechanical method
$80,000
-$120,000 $80,000
0.78714
0.5
Electronic success
$150,000
Try electronic method $0 $150,000
1.00000
-$50,000 $78,307 0.5
0.78066 Electronic failure
$30,000
-$120,000 $30,000
0.56131
0.7
Magnetic success
$120,000
Try magnetic method $0 $120,000
0.92075
-$80,000 $73,035 0.3
0.76000 Magnetic failure
$0
-$120,000 $0
0.38494

-$50,000

$0
Label in cell on left is the Value Risk Utility
defined name of cell on right. -$50,000 0.00000
-$45,000 0.04452
RT $150,000 -$40,000 0.08758
-$35,000 0.12923
Low -$50,000 U(Low) = 0.0 -$30,000 0.16951
High $150,000 U(High) = 1.0 -$25,000 0.20847
-$20,000 0.24616
A 1.357952354 -$15,000 0.28260
B 0.97301538 -$10,000 0.31786
-$5,000 0.35196
$0 0.38494
$5,000 0.41684
$10,000 0.44769
$15,000 0.47753
$20,000 0.50640
$25,000 0.53431
$30,000 0.56131
$35,000 0.58743
$40,000 0.61269
$45,000 0.63712
$50,000 0.66076
$55,000 0.68361
$60,000 0.70572
$65,000 0.72710
$70,000 0.74779
$75,000 0.76779
$80,000 0.78714
$85,000 0.80585
$90,000 0.82395
$95,000 0.84146
$100,000 0.85839
$105,000 0.87477
$110,000 0.89061
$115,000 0.90593
$120,000 0.92075
$125,000 0.93508
$130,000 0.94894
$135,000 0.96235
$140,000 0.97532
$145,000 0.98787
$150,000 1.00000
Utility or Expected Utility, U(x)
DriveTek Risk Utility Function
1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0
-$50,000 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $

Value or Certain Equivalent, x

$100,000 $150,000
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind
0 TreePlan 0 0 0D
1 0 0E
2 0 0T
3 1D
4 1T
5 0 3T
6 0 3E
7 0 3E
8 6T
9 6T
10 7T
11 7T
NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row
2 1 2 0 0 0 25
2 3 4 0 0 0 18
0 0 0 0 0 0 32
3 5 6 7 0 0 10
0 0 0 0 0 0 27
0 0 0 0 0 0 2
2 8 9 0 0 0 9
2 10 11 0 0 0 19
0 0 0 0 0 0 7
0 0 0 0 0 0 12
0 0 0 0 0 0 17
0 0 0 0 0 0 22
Col Mark
1 1
5 1
5 1
9 1
9 1
13 1
13 1
13 1
17 1
17 1
17 1
17 1
TreePlan for Excel 2.03

Decision Tree Software

Add-In for Microsoft Windows Excel 2007 - 2016
and for Macintosh Excel 2011 - 2016

TreePlan helps you build and modify a decision tree diagram

in an Excel worksheet. TreePlan automatically puts formulas
on your worksheet for evaluating these trees.

To build a new decision tree, open a new worksheet and

select a single cell that will be the top left corner of the tree
diagram.

Then run TreePlan:

Windows Excel 2007 & 2010 & 2013 & 2016

Add-Ins > TreePlan Decision Tree, or
Control+Shift+T

Macintosh Excel 2011

Tools > TreePlan Decision Tree, or
Option+Command+T

Macintosh Excel 2016

Option+Command+T

When the TreePlan...New dialog box appears, choose

New Tree. TreePlan builds a tree diagram with an initial
decision node and two branches. The tree diagram begins
with the top left corner of the diagram near the active
cell at the time New... is chosen.

TreePlan assigns the name TreeDiagram to the range of the

tree diagram and sets Excel's Print_Area equal to
TreeDiagram.

To change the structure of the tree diagram, select a node,

run TreePlan, and choose commands from a TreePlan
dialog box.

CAUTION: Do not use Excel commands to modify the

structure of the the tree diagram. Only use TreePlan.

On the left side of each branch of the tree diagram, there is

a name field above the branch line and a partial-cash-flow
value field below the line.

On the left side of event branches, there is also a probability

field above the name field.

A decision node cell contains a formula yielding a number to

indicate the optimal branch.

On the right side of each branch of the tree diagram, there is

a rollback Certain Equivalent (CE) field below the line near
each node. TreePlan automatically puts the rollback CE
formula into this cell: maximum of successor CEs at a
decision node, and probability-weighted average value of
successor CEs at an event node.

To the right of the terminal nodes, there is an endpoint

value field that sums all of the partial cashflows in the tree.

Internally, TreePlan uses the TreeData range, near cell

GV1000, to construct the TreeDiagram.

CAUTION: Do not insert or delete rows or columns in the

TreeDiagram or TreeData ranges. Modify the tree diagram
only by using TreePlan's menu options.

TREEPLAN...DECISION and
TREEPLAN...EVENT dialog boxes

Add branch
Adds a single branch after the selected node .
(No more than 5 branches are allowed.)

Copy subtree
Copies the selected node and all its successors to the
TreePlan internal clipboard.

Insert decision
Inserts a decision node and single branch before the
selected node.

Insert event
Inserts an event node and single branch before the
selected node.
Change to decision
Changes the selected event node to a decision node and
erases the probability fields from the event branches.

Change to event
Changes the selected decision node to an event node.

Shorten tree
Removes the selected node and its single successor
branch.

Change to terminal
Changes the selected node to a terminal node. All
successor branches are erased.

Remove branch
Erases the selected node, the previous branch, and any
successor branches and nodes.

TREEPLAN...TERMINAL dialog box

Change to decision node

Changes the selected terminal node to a decision node
with one to five successor branches.

Change to event node

Changes the selected terminal node to an event node
with one to five successor branches.

Paste subtree
Pastes the subtree onto the selected terminal node from
the TreePlan internal clipboard.

Remove previous branch

Erases the selected terminal node and the previous
branch.

TREEPLAN...SELECT dialog box

Cells
To select a set of nonadjacent cells for subsequent
formatting, select the appropriate checkboxes.
Shapes
To select a set of shapes for subsequent formatting,
select the appropriate checkboxes.

Columns
To select a set of nonadjacent columns for subsequent
formatting, select the appropriate checkboxes.

TREEPLAN...OPTIONS dialog box

Certain Equivalents
The default is to rollback the tree using probability-
weighted average values. If you chose to use
exponential utilities, TreePlan will compute utilities and
certain equivalents at each node. For the Maximize
option, the rollback formulas are U=A-B*EXP(-X/RT)
and X=-LN((A-U)/B)*RT, and for the Minimize option,
U=A-B*EXP(X/RT) and X=LN((A-U)/B)*RT.

NOTE: TreePlan uses the name RT to represent the

risk tolerance parameter of the exponential utility
function; the names A and B determine scaling.
If the names A, B, and RT don't exist, they are initially
defined as A=1, B=1, and RT=999999999999. The
name UseExpUtility is a flag indicating whether to use
exponential utilities or probability-weighted average
values.

Decision Node Choices

The default is to Maximize profits. If you choose to
Minimize costs instead, the cash flows are interpreted
as costs, and decisions are made by choosing the
minimum CE rather than the maximum.
TreePlan uses the name MinimizeCosts as a flag
indicating whether to maximize profits or minimize
costs.

TreePlan for Excel 2.03

Title License Agreement for TreePlan, SensIt, and SimVoi

Introduction Carefully read the following license agreement. This is a contract. By downloading,
accepting delivery of, installing, or using any part of the Software, licensee agrees to be bound by all
terms and conditions of this license.

Definitions The software product, “Software,” means the Pro, Student, or Trial version of TreePlan,
SensIt, or SimVoi, including the Excel add-in files, associated example files, and electronic
documentation files, and also any updates or modifications of the foregoing provided by TreePlan
Software.

The licensor, “TreePlan Software” or “We” or “Us” or “Our,” means Mike Middleton or Michael R.
Middleton, doing business as TreePlan Software, a sole proprietorship, located at 2105 Buchanan
Street, #1, San Francisco, CA 94115 USA.
The licensee, “You” or “Your,” means the individual person or a single organizational entity that is being
licensed to use the Software.

This license agreement, “Agreement,” means this legal and binding agreement between you and
TreePlan Software for the Software you are about to download, install, or use.

"Use" of the Software means the use of any of the Software functions to define, solve, analyze, or
obtain results for a user-defined model.

Ownership The Software is owned and copyrighted by TreePlan Software. Your license confers no title
or ownership in the Software and should not be construed as a sale of any right in the Software. We
remain the sole owner of all right, title, and interest in the Software and related explanatory written
and electronic materials. You acknowledge that no title to the intellectual property in the Software is
transferred to you by the license. You further acknowledge that title and full ownership rights to the
Software will remain the exclusive property of TreePlan Software and that you will not acquire any
rights to the Software except as expressly set forth in this license.

Copyright The Software is protected by United States copyright laws and international treaty
provisions.
Pro License Upon purchase or receipt of a Pro license, you may install and use the Pro version of the
Software for single individual use on multiple computers, or you may install the Pro version on a single
computer for shared use, but not both.

Student License The Student license is only for instructional use by students and instructors, and the
Software may not be used for commercial purposes. Upon purchase or receipt of a Student license,
you may install and use the Student version of the Software for single individual use on multiple
computers, or you may install the Student version on a single computer for shared use, but not both.

Trial License TreePlan Software grants you the right to install and use the Trial version of the Software
free of charge for single individual use on one computer for no longer than thirty days, after which you
must delete all of the Software files from your computer. During the Trial period the Software is
licensed only for evaluation and may not be used for commercial, instructional, or other production
purposes.

Volume Licenses For a volume purchase of Pro or Student licenses for a group of individual users, the
primary purchaser may duplicate and distribute the corresponding version of the Software to those
licensed users by disk, secure network, secure web site, or email attachment. For any method of
distribution, the Software must be accessible only to people who have a license.

For a volume purchase of Pro or Student licenses for shared use on a group of computers, each
computer must have its own license, regardless of whether the Software is used at different times or
concurrently. The Software may be installed on each licensed computer or on a network, provided
there is a license for each computer that will access the Software through the network.
For a volume purchase, TreePlan Software provides support only to the primary purchaser or to
another person designated by the purchaser.

Backup Copy You may copy the Software for backup and archival purposes, provided that the original
and each copy is kept in your possession and is not available to others.

Accessibility You may not place the Software onto a server so that it is accessible via a public network
such as the Internet.
License Transfer You may not sublicense, sell, lease, rent, assign or otherwise transfer the license
rights granted herein without the prior written consent of TreePlan Software.

Modifications You may not modify or adapt the Software or merge it into another program.

Reverse Engineering You may not reverse engineer, disassemble, decompile, or make any attempt to
discover the source code of the Software.

Sublicensing You may not sublicense, rent, lease, or lend any portion of the Software and related
explanatory written and electronic materials.

Limited Warranty We warrant that for a period of 90 days after delivery of this copy of the Software to
you the Software will perform in substantial accordance with the related explanatory materials.

To the extent permitted by applicable law, the foregoing limited warranty is in lieu of all other
warranties or conditions, express or implied, and we disclaim any and all implied warranties or
conditions, including any implied warranty of title, non-infringement, merchantability or fitness for a
particular purpose, regardless of whether we know or had reason to know of your particular needs.

No employee, agent, dealer, reseller, or distributor of ours is authorized to modify this limited warranty
nor to make any additional warranties.

Some states do not allow the limitation or exclusion of liability for incidental or consequential
damages, so the above limitation may not apply to you.
Limited Remedy Our entire liability and your exclusive remedy for breach of the foregoing warranty
shall be, at our option, to either return the price you paid or replace the Software file that does not
meet the foregoing warranty.

In no event will we be liable to you for any damages, including any lost profits, lost savings, or other
incidental or consequential damages arising from the use or the inability to use the Software (even if
we or an authorized dealer, reseller, or distributor has been advised of the possibility of these
damages), or for any claim by any other party.

Some states do not allow the limitation or exclusion of liability for incidental or consequential
damages, so the above limitation may not apply to you.

Termination This license agreement takes effect upon your use of the Software and remains effective
until terminated. You may terminate it at any time by destroying all copies of the Software and related
explanatory materials in your possession. It will also automatically terminate if you fail to comply with
any term or condition of this license agreement. You agree on termination of this license to destroy all
copies of the Software and related explanatory materials in your possession.

Confidentiality The Software contains trade secrets and proprietary know-how that belong to us and it
is being made available to you in strict confidence. Any use or disclosure of the Software, or of its
algorithms, protocols or interfaces, other than in strict accordance with this license agreement, may be
actionable as a violation of our trade secret rights.
General Provisions This written license agreement is the exclusive agreement between you and us
concerning the Software and related explanatory materials and supersedes any prior purchase order,
communication, advertising or representation concerning the Software.

This license agreement may be modified only by a writing signed by you and us.

In the event of litigation between you and us concerning the Software or related explanatory materials,
the prevailing party in the litigation will be entitled to recover attorney fees and expenses from the
other party.

This license agreement is governed by the laws of the State of California.

You agree that the Software will not be shipped, transferred or exported into any country or used in
any manner prohibited by the United States Export Administration Act or any other export laws,
restrictions or regulations.