SIMPLIFYING 50 CHALLENGING PROBLEMS

Title Problem Hint/Term to look for Answer

A drawer contains red socks and

black socks. When two socks are The probability that both are
drawn at random, the probability red is 0.5.
that both are red is 0.5. (a) 4
The Sock Drawer
(a) How small can the number of (a) number of socks in the (b) 21
socks in the drawer be? drawer be
(b) How small if the number of (b) black socks is even
black socks is even?

To encourage Elmer's promising

tennis career, his father offers
him a prize if he wins (at least) To encourage Elmer's
two tennis sets in a row in a three- promising tennis career
set series to be played with his
father and the club champion if he wins (at least) two Champion-Father-Champion
Successive Wins
alternately: father-champion• tennis sets in a row in a or CFC
father or champion-father- three-set series
champion, according to Elmer's
choice. The champion is a better
player than Elmer's father. Which
series should Elmer choose?

A three-man jury has two

members each of whom
independently has probability p of
making the correct decision and a
One man jury has the same
third member who flips a coin for majority rules
probability of making the
The Flippant Juror each decision (majority rules). A
correct decision with the
one-man jury has probability p of better probability of making
three-man jury.
making the correct decision. the correct decision
Which jury has the better
probability of making the correct
decision?

Average
On the average, how many times
Trials until First Success must a die be thrown until one 6 times
a die be thrown until one
gets a 6?
gets a 6

In a common carnival game a

player tosses a penny from a
distance of about 5 feet onto the
tosses a penny from a
surface of a table ruled in I-inch
distance of about 5 feet
squares. If the penny (0.75 inch
onto the surface of a table
Coin in Square in diameter) falls entirely inside a 9/256 or less than 1/28
ruled in I-inch squares.
square, the player receives 5
cents but does not get his penny
back; otherwise he loses his
penny. If the penny lands on the
table, what is his chance to win?
 Chuck-a-Luck is a gambling game
often played at carnivals and
gambling houses. A player may
bet on any one of the numbers I,
2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Three dice are
rolled. If the player's number
his original stake plus his
appears on one, two, or three of
own money back;
the dice, he receives respectively
otherwise he loses his
one, two, or three times his
Chuck-a-Luck stake. 0.079 or almost 8%
original stake plus his own
money back; otherwise he
What is the player's
loses his stake. What is the
expected loss per unit stake?
player's expected loss per unit
stake? (Actually the player may
distribute stakes on several
numbers, but each such stake
can be regarded as a separate
bet.)

Mr. Brown always bets a dollar

on the number 13 at roulette
against the advice of Kind
Friend. To help cure Mr. Brown
of playing roulette, Kind Friend
always bets Brown $20 at even number 13 at roulette
money that Brown will be behind against the advice of Kind
Curing the Compulsive
at the end of 36 plays. How is Friend. +2.79 dollars per 36 trials
Gambler
the cure working? (Most
American roulette wheels have How is the cure working?
38 equally likely numbers. If the
player's number comes up, he is
paid 35 times his stake and gets
his original stake back; otherwise
he loses his stake.)

We often read of someone who

has been dealt 13 spades at
4 x 13!39!
bridge. With a well-shuffled pack
dealt 13 spades at bridge. 52!
of cards, what is the chance that
or
Perfect Bridge Hand you are dealt a perfect hand (13
chance that you are dealt a 4 x n!(52-n)!
of one suit)? (Bridge is played
perfect hand 52!
with an 13 in each of 4 suits,
Where in this case, n=13
and each of 4 players is dealt
13.) ordinary pack of 52 cards,
 The game of craps, played with
two dice, is one of America's
fastest and most popular
gambling games. Calculating the
odds associated with it is an
instructive exercise. The rules are
these. Only totals for the two dice
count. The player throws the dice The game of craps.
and wins at once if the total for
Craps 0.49293
the first throw is 7 or 11, loses What is the player’s
at once if it is 2, 3, or 12. Any chance to win?
other throw is called his "point."*
If the first throw is a point, the
player throws the dice repeatedly
until he either wins by throwing his
point again or loses by throwing 7.
What is the player's chance to
win?

Subjective question.
An urn contains 10 black balls
and 10 white balls, identical
An urn contains 10 black No one can say what
except for color. You choose
balls and 10 amount is appropriate for
"black" or "white." One ball is
white balls. you to pay for either game.
An Experiment in Personal drawn at random, and if its color
Expected value is half of the
Taste for Money matches your choice, you get $10,
Write down the maximum bet. Thus, betting $10 would
otherwise nothing. Write down the
amount you are willing to give us $5 as expected
maximum amount you are willing
pay to play the game. value because of 50-50
to pay to play the game. The
chance of winning(random
game will be played just once.
probabiblity).

Subjective question.
A friend of yours has available
many black and many white
No one can say what
balls,and he puts black and white
A ball is drawn randomly amount is appropriate for
balls into the urn to suit himself.
from this urn. you to pay for either game.
An Experiment in Personal You choose "black" or "white." A
Write down the maximum Expected value is half of the
Taste for Money ball is drawn randomly from this
amount you are willing to bet. Thus, betting $10 would
urn. Write down the maximum
pay to play this game. give us $5 as expected
amount you are willing to pay to
value because of 50-50
play this game. The game will be
chance of winning(random
played just once.
probabiblity).

Two strangers are separately

asked to choose one of the
positive whole numbers and
advised that if they both choose
the same number, they both get a
Two strangers are
prize. If you were one of these 1 (natural choice)
separately asked to
Silent Cooperation people, what number would you 3 (popualr choice)
choose one positive whole
choose? "The throws have catchy 7 (popular choice)
numbers
names: for example, a total of 2
is Snake eyes, of 8, Eighter from
Decatur, of 12, Boxcars, When
an even point is made by throwing
a pair, it is made "the hard way."
 Two strangers are separately
asked to choose one of the
positive whole numbers and
advised that if they both choose
the same number, they both get a
Two strangers are
prize. If you were one of these 1 (natural choice)
separately asked to
Silent Cooperation people, what number would you 3 (popualr choice)
choose one positive whole
choose? "The throws have catchy 7 (popular choice)
numbers
names: for example, a total of 2
is Snake eyes, of 8, Eighter from
Decatur, of 12, Boxcars, When
an even point is made by throwing
a pair, it is made "the hard way."

Two strangers who have a private

recognition signal agree to meet
on a certain Thursday at 12
noon in New York City, a town Two strangers who have a
familiar to neither, to discuss an private
"Empire State Building"
important business deal, but later recognition signal
Quo Vadis? or for easier choice
they discover that they have not
"San Francisco or Paris"
chosen a meeting place, and If they try nevertheless to
neither can reach the other meet, where should they go?
because both have embarked on
trips. If they try nevertheless to
meet, where should they go?

Three prisoners, A, B, and C,

with apparently equally good
records have applied for parole.
The parole board has decided
to release two of the three, and
the prisoners know this but not
which two. A warder friend of
prisoner A knows who are to be
released. Prisoner A realizes that
Three prisoners, A, B, and
it would be unethical to ask the
C, with apparently equally
warder if he, A, is to be released,
good records have applied
but thinks of asking for the name
The Prisoner's Dilemma for parole. 0.67 or 2/3
of one prisoner other than himself
who is to be released. He thinks
one prisoner other than
that before he asks, his chances
himself
of release are f. He thinks that if
the warder says "B will be
released," his own chances have
now gone down to t, because
either A and B or B and Care to
be released. And so A decides
not to reduce his chances by
asking. However, A is mistaken
in his calculations. Explain
 Coupons in cereal boxes are
numbered l to 5, and a set of one How many boxes on the
of each is required for a prize. average are
Collecting Coupons 11.43 Boxes
With one coupon per box, how required to make a one
many boxes on the average are complete set?
required to make a complete set?

Eight eligible bachelors and seven

beautiful models happen
randomly to have purchased
Eight eligible bachelors and
single seats in the same 15-seat
The Theater Row seven 7.47 or 3.27
row of a theater. On the average,
beautiful models
how many pairs of adjacent
seats are ticketed for
marriageable couples?

A tennis tournament has 8

players. The number a player
draws from a hat decides his first-
round rung in the tournament A tennis tournament has 8
ladder. Suppose that the best players
Will Second-Best Be Runner- player always defeats the next
P = 0.501
Up? best and that the latter always chance that the second-
defeats all the rest. The loser of best player wins the runner-
the finals gets the runner-up cup. up cup?
What is the chance that the
second-best player wins the
runner-up cup?

(a) Suppose King Arthur holds a

jousting tournament where the
jousts are in pairs as in a tennis Jousting tournament.
tournament. The 8 knights in the
tournament are evenly matched, (a) What is the
(a) 1/4
and they include the twin knights chance that the twins meet
Twin Knights
Balin and Balan.* What is the in a match
(b) 1/(2^(n-1))
chance that the twins meet in a during the tournament?
match during the tournament?
(b) Replace 8 by 2n in the above (b) Replace 8 by 2n
problem. Now what is the chance
that they meet?

When 100 coins are tossed, what

An Even Split at Coin
is the probability that exactly 50 Exactly 50 are heads 0.08
Tossing
are heads?
 Pepys wrote Newton to ask which
of three events is more likely: that
a person get
(a) at least 1 six when 6 dice Pepys wrote Newton to ask
Isaac Newton Helps Samuel At least 1 six when 6 dices
are rolled, which of
Pepys are rolled
(b) at least 2 sixes when 12 dice three events is more likely
are rolled, or
(c) at least 3 sixes when 18 dice
are rolled. What is the answer?

A, B, and C are to fight a three-

cornered pistol duel. All know
that A's chance of hitting his
target is 0.3, C's is 0.5, and B
never misses. They are to fire at
their choice of target in
The Three-Cornered Duel B never misses Allow A to undeniably miss
succession in the order A, B, C,
cyclically (but a hit man loses
further turns and is no longer
shot at) until only one man is left
unhit. What should A's strategy
be?

Two urns contain red and black

balls, all alike except for color.
Urn A has 2 reds and 1 black,
and Urn B has 101 reds and 100
blacks. An urn is chosen at
Two urns contain red and
random, and you win a prize if
black balls, all alike except
you correctly name the urn on the
Should You Sample with or for color.
basis of the evidence of two balls 5/8, Without Replacement
without Replacement?
drawn from it. After the first ball
How do you order the
is drawn and its color reported,
second drawing
you can decide whether or not
the ball shall be replaced before
the second drawing. How do you
order the second drawing, and
how do you decide on the urn?

In an election, two candidates,

Albert and Benjamin, have in a
ballot box a and b votes
respectively, a > b, for example, 3 Atleast once after the first
The Ballot Box and 2. If ballots are randomly tally the candidates have the 8/10
drawn and tallied, what is the same number of tallies?
chance that at least once after the
first tally the candidates have the
same number of tallies?
 Players A and B match pennies
N times. They keep a tally of their
Chance that at no time
gains and losses. After the first
Ties in Matching Pennies during the game
toss, what is the chance that at no
will they be even?
time during the game will they be
even?

Marvin gets off work at random

times between 3 and 5 P.M. His
mother lives uptown, his girl
friend downtown. He takes the
To go uptown, Marvin must
first subway that comes in either
arrive in the 1-minute
direction and eats dinner with the Had dinner with her twice in
The Unfair Subway interval between a
one he is first delivered to. His the last 20 working days
downtown and an uptown
mother complains that he never
train.
comes to see her, but he says she
has a 50-50 chance. He has had
dinner with her twice in the last 20
working days.

If a chord is selected at random

on a fixed circle, what is the Lengths exceeds the radius
Lengths of Random Chords 2/3
probability that its length exceeds of the circle?
the radius of the circle?

Duels in the town of Discretion

are rarely fatal. There, each
contestant comes at a random
moment between 5 A.M. and 6
A.M. on the appointed day and Fraction of duels lead to
The Hurried Duelers 1/6
leaves exactly 5 minutes later, violence?
honor served, unless his
opponent arrives within the time
interval and then they fight. What
fraction of duels had to violence?

(a) The king's minter boxes his

coins 100 to a box. In each box
he puts l false coin. The king
(a) Minter’s peculations go
suspects the minter and from each
undetected? (a) 0.366
Catching the Cautious of 100 boxes draws a random coin
Counterfeiter and has it tested. What is the
(b) both IOO's are (b) P = (1 - 1/n)^n
chance the minter's peculations go
replaced by n?
undetected?
(b) What if both IOO's are
replaced by n?

The king's minter boxes his coins

n to a box. Each box contains m
false coins. The king suspects the
Chance that the sample of n
Catching the Greedy minter and randomly draws I coin
coins contains exactly r e^m
Counterfeiter from each of n boxes and has
false ones?
these tested. What is the chance
that the sample of n coins
contains exactly r false ones?
 Airborne spores produce tiny mold
colonies on gelatin plates in a
laboratory. The many plates
average 3 colonies per plate. Fraction of plates has
Moldy Gelatin
What fraction of plates has exactly exactly 3 colonies?
3 colonies? If the average is a
large integer m, what fraction of
plates has exactly m colonies?

A bread salesman sells on the

average 20 cakes on a round of
his route. What is the chance that Chance that he sells an
Evening the Sales 0.568
he sells an even number of even number of cakes?
cakes? (We assume the sales
follow the Poisson distribution.)

What is the least number of

persons required if the probability Exceeds ½ that two or more
Birthday Pairings exceeds 1/2 that two or more of of them have the same 23
them have the same birthday? birthday?
(Year of birth need not match.)

You want to find someone

whose birthday matches yours.
Birthdays you need to ask
What is the least number of
Finding Your Birthmate about to have a 50-50 253
strangers whose birthdays you
chance?
need to ask about to have a 50-50
chance?

If r persons compare birthdays in

the pairing problem, the probability
What should n be in the
Relating the Birthday is PR that at least 2 have the
personal birthmate problem
Pairings and Birthmate same birthday. What should n be
to make your probability of
Problems in the personal birthmate problem
success approximately PR.
to make your probability of
success approximately PR?

Labor laws in Erewhon require

factory owners to give every
worker a holiday whenever one of
them has a birthday and to hire
without discrimina• tion on
grounds of birthdays. Except for Expected total number of
Birthday Holidays these holidays they work a 365- man-days worked per year 364
day year. The owners want to in a factory.
maximize the expected total
number of mandays worked per
year in a factory. How many
workers do factories have in
Erewhon?
 From where he stands, one step
toward the cliff would send the
drunken man over the edge. He
takes random steps, either toward
The Cliff-Hanger or away from the cliff. At any step Drunken man over the edge
his probability of taking a step
away is 2/3, of a step toward the
cliff 1/3, What is his chance of
escaping the cliff?

Player M has $1, and Player N

has $2. Each play gives one of
the players $1 from the other.
Player Mis enough better than They play until one is
Gambler's Ruin 1/3
Player N that he wins ! of the bankrupt
plays. They play until one is
bankrupt. What is the chance
that Player M wins?

At Las Vegas, a man with $20

needs $40, but he is too
embarrassed to wire his wife for
more money. He decides to invest
in roulette (which he doesn't
enjoy playing) and is considering Compare the merits of the
Bold Play vs. Cautious Play 0.474 > 0.11, bet all at once.
two strategies: bet the $20 on strategies.
"evens" all at once and quit if he
wins or loses, or bet on "evens"
one dollar at a time until he has
won or lost $20. Compare the
merits of the strategies.

How thick should a coin be to

A one-third chance of
The Thick Coin have a one-third chance of landing 0.354 of the Diameter
landing on edge?
on edge?

In a laboratory, each of a handful

of thin 9-inch glass rods had one
tip marked with a blue dot and
the other with a red. When the
laboratory assistant tripped and Average length of the
The Clumsy Chemist 3 inches
dropped them onto the concrete fragment with the blue dot?
floor, many broke into three
pieces. For these, what was the
average length of the fragment
with the blue dot?

Shuffle an ordinary deck of 52

playing cards containing four
How many cards are
aces. Then turn up cards from the
The First Ace required to produce FIRST 10.6 cards on the average
top until the first ace appears. On
ACE.
the average, how many cards are
required to produce the first ace?

The Locomotive Problem
(a) A railroad numbers its
locomotives in order, I, 2, ... , N.
One day you see a locomotive and
its number is 60. Guess how
many locomotives the company
has.
(b) You have looked at 5
locomotives and the largest
number observed is 60. Again
guess how many locomotives the
company has.
(a) One day you see a
locomotive and its number (a) 119
is 60.
(b) 71 (Estimation only since
(b) 5 locomotives and there is no right answer for
largest number is observed the question)
is 60.

(a) If a stick is broken in two at

(a) Average length of the
random, what is the average
smaller piece? (a) 1/4 L
length of the smaller piece?
The Little End of the Stick
(b) (For calculus students.)
(b) Average ratio of smaller (b) 0.386
What is the average ratio of the
length to larger length?
smaller length to the larger?

A bar is broken at random in

Average size of the •2
two places. Find the average
The Broken Bar smallest, of the middle- •5
size of the smallest, of the middle-
sized, and the largest pieces. • 11
sized, and of the largest pieces.

A game consists of a sequence

Winning an Unfair Game
of plays; on each play either you
or your opponent scores a point,
you with probability p (less
than t), he with probability l - p.
The number of plays is to be
Choose in advance the
even-2 or 4 or 6 and so on. To 10
number of plays
win the game you must get more
than half the points. You know
p, say 0.45, and you get a prize if
you win. You get to choose in
advance the number of plays.
How many do you choose?

The following are two versions

of the matching problem:
(a) From a shuffled deck, cards
are laid out on a table one at a
time, face cards is beneath a
card of the first deck. What is
(a) Card above and the
the average number of matches
card below in repetitions of
of the card above and the card (a) 1
this experiment?
Average Number of Matches below in repetitions of this
experiment? (b) 1
(b) Letters are put into their
own envelopes?
(b) A typist types letters and
envelopes to n different persons.
The letters are randomly put into
the envelopes. On the average,
how many letters are put into their
own envelopes?
 Under the conditions of the
previous matching problem, Probability of exactly r
Probabilities of Matches 0.368
what is the probability of exactly matches
r matches?

The king, to test a candidate for

the position of wise man, offers
him a chance to marry the young
lady in the court with the largest
dowry. The amounts of the
dowries are written on slips of
paper and mixed. A slip is drawn
at random and the wise man must
decide whether that is the largest
dowry or not. If he decides it is,
he gets the lady and her dowry if How should the wise man Pass 37 and take the first
Choosing the Largest Dowry
he is correct; otherwise he gets make his decision? candidate thereafter
nothing. If he decides against the
amount written on the first slip, he
must choose or refuse the next
slip, and so on until he chooses
one or else the slips are
exhausted. In all, 100 attractive
young ladies participate, each
with a different dowry. How
should the wise man make his
decision?

As a second task, the king wants

the wise man to choose the
the king wants the wise man
largest number from among 100,
to choose the largest
by the same rules, but this time 3/4 or 0.684
number from among 100
Choosing the Largest the numbers on the slips are
Random Number randomly drawn from the 0.580 for very large value of
Slips are randomly drawn
numbers from O to l (random n
from the
numbers, uniformly distributed).
numbers from 0 to 1.
Now what should the wise man's
strategy be?

An unbiased instrument for

measuring distances makes
random errors whose distribution
has standard deviation <T. You
are allowed two measurements all
told to estimate the lengths of Estimate the lengths of two
Doubling Your Accuracy two cylindrical rods, one clearly cylindrical rods, one clearly
longer than the other. Can you longer than the other.
do better than to take one
measurement on each rod? (An
unbiased instrument is one that
on the average gives the true
measure.)
 What is the probability that the
quadratic equation

Random Quadratic Probability that the quadratic

1!
Equations equation has real roots?
2
“x +2bx+c=0” has real roots?

Starting from an origin 0, a

particle has a 50-50 chance of
moving I step north or I step
south, and also a 50-50 chance of
Chance that the particle
Two-Dimensional Random moving I step east or I step west.
returns to the 1
Walk After the step is taken, the move is
origin?
repeated from the new position
and so on indefinitely. What is the
chance that the particle returns to
the origin?

As in the two-dimensional walk, a

particle starts at an origin O in
three• space. Think of the origin
as centered in a cube 2 units on a
side. One move in this walk
sends the particle with equal
likelihood to one of the eight Every move the particle has
Three-Dimensional Random
corners of the cube. Thus, at a 50-50 chance of moving 0.239
Walk
every move the particle has a 50- one unit up or down
50 chance of moving one unit up
or down, one unit east or west,
and one unit north or south. If the
walk continues forever, find the
fraction of particles that return to
the origin.

A table of infinite expanse has

inscribed on it a set of parallel
lines spaced 2a units apart.
A needle of length 2/ (smaller than When it comes to rest it
Buffon's Needle 2L/πa
2a) is twirled and tossed on the crosses the line?
table. What is the probability that
when it comes to rest it crosses a
line?

Suppose we toss a needle of

length 2/ (less than I) on a grid
with both horizontal and vertical
rulings spaced one unit apart.
Butfon's Needle with
What is the mean number of lines Mean number of lines the
Horizontal and Vertical 4/π
the needle crosses? (I have number crosses
Rulings
dropped the 2a for the spacing
because we might as well think
of the length of the needle as
measured in units of spacing.)
 In the previous problem let the
needle be of arbitrary length, then
Long Needles Needle be of arbitrary length 4L/π
what is the mean number of
crosses?

Two urns contain the same total

numbers of balls, some blacks and
some whites in each. From
each urn are drawn n (greater
than or equal to 3) balls with
replacement.
Drawing from the second is
Molina's Urns Find the number of drawings 3 ≥ n ≥ 2000
either all whites or all blacks.
and the composition of the two
urns so that the probability that all
white balls are drawn from the
first urn is equal to the probability
that the drawing from the second
is either all whites or all blacks.