PROB & STAT for COMP SCI 1.

PROBABILITY BASICS Whalen

“Seeing much, suffering much, and studying much are the three pillars of learning.”
—Benjamin Disraeli

Review Lesson 1, then complete the following problems. For best results, work the problems on your
own first, then check your answers. Problems marked with a + are a little harder than the others. The
problems are designed to help you review the current concepts and get ready for the next ones.

Some of the problems are (at least inspired by) examples from Statistics by Freedman, Pisani, and
Purves; these are marked with a *.

I. Concept Check
1. What does it mean to say events are mutually exclusive? Give your own examples.

2. What does it mean to say events are independent? Give your own examples.

3. + Can two events be both mutually exclusive and independent? Explain.

4. When do we multiply the probabilities of events? When do we add?

5. Give your own example of a question that can be answered with (a) the classical interpretation
of probability, (b) the frequentist interpretation of probability.

6. Give your own example of a question that cannot be answered by the classical or frequentist
interpretations of probability.

7. + What is “probability,” according to mathematicians?

8. You use your calculator to compute the probability of an event. Match the number your
calculator displays with a reasonable response.*
a. 0.2 i. certain to happen
b. 0.5 ii. certain not to happen
c. 0 iii. almost certain
d. 1 iv. as likely as not to happen
e. −1 v. may happen
f. 0.99 vi. almost certain not to happen
−6
g. 2.15 × 10 vii. something is wrong with my calculation
h. 3

9. You are in a room with twelve other people. Everyone in the room puts their name on a piece
of paper, and these are dropped in a hat. You pull one of the pieces out randomly—what is the
probability it has your name on it?

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PROB & STAT for COMP SCI 1. PROBABILITY BASICS Whalen

10. You and a friend both audition for a play. Rank the events from least likely to most likely. (If you
need more information, explain.) (a) At least one of you get a part, (b) both of you get a part, (c)
one of you gets a part but not the other.

11. What has a greater chance to fail—a set of components connected in sequence or a set of
components connected in parallel?

12. Describe a scenario analogous to components connected in sequence, and of components

connected in parallel.

13. Can a system consist of both parallel and sequential connections?

II. Coin Toss Boss

1. You toss a coin twice. For each event, choose one of the options.*
1 1 1 1
(i) + (ii) × (iii) something else
2 2 2 2
a) It lands tails on the first toss but not the second.
b) It lands tails on the first toss or on the second toss.
c) It lands tails on one of the tosses but not the other.

2. You are at lunch with friends. One of them asks, “What is the chance of something that’s fifty-
fifty happening five times in a row?” You reply, “One out of 32.” Everyone at lunch is amazed at
your ability. How did you come up with that?

3. If you toss a coin twice, the probability of it landing tails at least once is 3/4. Give the
calculation.

1 1 1
4. + If you toss a coin three times, the probability of it landing heads exactly once is 8 + 8 + 8.
Explain and justify the calculation.

5. See problem 4. If you toss a coin three times, what is the probability of it landing heads exactly
twice?

6. + If you toss a coin four times, find the chance of each event.
a) It lands heads exactly once.
b) It lands heads exactly twice.
c) It lands heads once or twice.

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PROB & STAT for COMP SCI 1. PROBABILITY BASICS Whalen

III. Slice and Dice

1. You roll a die six times. For each event, choose one of the options.*
1 1 1 1
(a) + (b) × (c) something else
6 6 6 6
a) The first roll is a 1 and the last roll is a 1.
b) The first roll is a 1 or the last roll is a 1.

2. You roll two dice; one is black and the other is white. Find the chance that…
a) Both will land on 5:

b) Neither will land on 5:

c) The black will land on 5 but not the white:

d) The white will land on 5 but not the black:

e) One will land on 5 but not the other:

f) At least one will land on 5:

3. If you roll a pair of dice, what are the chances they are both 1? Both 2?

4. If you roll a pair of dice and both give the same number, then you “rolled doubles.” What are
the chances of rolling doubles?

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PROB & STAT for COMP SCI 1. PROBABILITY BASICS Whalen

5. In the board game Monopoly, you roll two dice on your turn. If you roll doubles, you get
another turn. If you roll doubles again, you get a third turn. If you roll doubles on your third
turn, you “go to jail” and have to move your game piece to the “jail” space. What are the
chances of going to jail on your turn? (Ignore the other ways you might go to jail.)

6. If you roll two dice, the probability that one of the dice is a 3 and the other is not a 3 is
1 5 5 1
( × )+( × )
6 6 6 6
Explain the calculation with words.

7. + In Yahtzee, you roll five dice at the same time. If all five dice display the same number, you get
to yell “Yahtzee!” and get 50 points. What are the chances you get to yell “Yahtzee!” after a
roll?

8. You roll three dice and want to get a 6 on at least one of them. (a) Are the chances of this
1
happening more than, less than, or equal to 6? (b) Are the chances of this happening more
1 1 1
than, less than, or equal to 6 + 6 + 6?

9. + (The Paradox of the Chevalier de Méré)* In a gambling game, players bet on the event that in
4 rolls of a die, a 1 (called an “ace” here) would occur at least once. In another game, players
bet on the event that in 24 rolls of a pair of dice, a double ace (that is, a 1 on both dice at the
same time) would occur at least once. A French nobleman, the Chevalier de Méré, believed that
both events had the same chances. He reasoned:
1 1 2
 If I have a 6 chance of getting an ace on one roll, then in 4 rolls I have a 4 × 6 = 3 chance of
getting an ace at least once.
1
 If I have a 36 chance of getting a double ace on one roll of a pair of dice, then in 24 rolls I
1 2
have a 24 × 36 = 3 chance of getting a double ace at least once.
However, the gamblers found that the first event was a bit more likely than the second. Is there
anything wrong with the Chevalier’s reasoning?

10. + If you roll three dice, what are the chances exactly one of them will be a 6?

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PROB & STAT for COMP SCI 1. PROBABILITY BASICS Whalen

IV. General
1. You draw a number at random from a box. The chance of drawing a number 5 or less is 10%.
The chance of drawing a number 12 or more is 25%. Is the chance of drawing a number strictly
between 5 and 12 equal to 65%?*

2. You draw the top two cards from a well-shuffled deck. (Standard deck as described in lesson 1,
and no replacement.) What is the chance that…
a) Both will be a king?
b) Neither will be a king?
c) The first will be a king, but not the second?
d) The second will be a king, but not the first?
e) One card will be a king, but not the other?
f) At least one will be a king?

3. The chance of rain tomorrow is 30%. On a rainy day, there is a 10% chance your bus will be late.
If it is a rainy day and your bus is late, there is a 25% chance you will be late to work. What are
the chances that tomorrow it will rain, the bus will be late, and you will be late to work? What
can we say about the chances that you will be late to work tomorrow regardless of the bus and
the weather?

4. If someone purchased a certain video game, the chances they finished it are 75%. If someone
finished it, the chances they purchased downloadable content (DLC) are 90%. What are the
chances someone who purchased the game finished it and purchased DLC? Can we say
anything about the chance someone purchased DLC if they did not finish the game?

5. + A screen changes between displaying A, B, and C. The chance of it changing from B to A is

20%. The chance of it changing from A to C is 30%. The chance of it changing from C to B is 90%.
Right now it displays B. (a) What are the chances we next see A, followed by C, followed by B?
(b) If the chance of it displaying B at any given time is 50%, then what are the chances of seeing
the sequence BACB?

6. There are five bus drivers. We will name them A, B, C, D, and E. Due to their schedules, the
chances you see them on your way to work are:
A B C D E
10% 8% 24% 39% 19%
a) What are the chances you see driver C or D?
b) What are the chances you see A or B?
c) What are the chances you see A, C, or E?

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PROB & STAT for COMP SCI 1. PROBABILITY BASICS Whalen

7. A jar contains the following numbers of marbles.

Red Orange Yellow Green Blue Purple
4 2 2 6 4 3
You draw one marble at random. (a) What are the chances that you will draw a blue or a green
marble? (b) What are the chances that you will draw a red, orange, or yellow marble? (c) What
are the chances the marble you draw is a primary color?

8. A chest contains 15 blue rupees and 5 red rupees. If 3 rupees are drawn at random without
replacement, compute the probability that at least one of them is red.

9. Suppose a packet consists of 8 bits. Suppose a bit is corrupted with probability 0.05, and
whether one bit is corrupted does not affect whether other bits are corrupted. What is the
probability a packet has no corrupted bits?

10. (The Monty Hall Problem) You are on a game show and see three doors in a row on stage. The
host, Monty Hall, explains that behind one door is a grand prize (such as a new car), but behind
the other two doors are cheap prizes (such as a can of beans). You get to choose one of the
doors and keep whatever prize is behind it. Each door appears the same, so you choose a door
at random. Next, Monty opens a door that you did not choose and reveals a cheap prize behind
it. Two doors remain closed. Monty says, “I’m going to let you switch choices, if you want. Do
you want to keep your original choice, or do you want to switch to the other door?” To win the
grand prize, are your chances better if you switch, or if you stay? Or are they the same?

11. + (A Royal Flush) A deck of cards (as described in lesson 1) is well-shuffled and you draw five
cards (without replacement). What are the chances of getting the ace, the king, the queen, the
jack, and the 10 of the same suit?

V. Reliability—You Can Trust Us!

1. If two components are connected in parallel and are independently 85% reliable, what is the
reliability of the connection?

2. If two components are connected in sequence and are independently 85% reliable, what is the
reliability of the connection?

3. There are two roads from area A to area B, and there are two roads from area B to area C. Each
road is blocked with probability 0.25 independently of the other roads. (a) What is the
probability that there is an open route from area A to area C? (b) If a new road is built from
area A to area C directly, also with probability 0.25 of being blocked, what is the probability that
there is an open route from area A to area C?

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PROB & STAT for COMP SCI 1. PROBABILITY BASICS Whalen

4. Each component is independently 95% reliable. Find the reliability of the system modeled by
the diagram:

5. Each component is independently 90% reliable. Find the reliability of the system modeled by
the diagram:

6. + If 𝑛 components are connected in sequence, each with reliability 𝑟 independent of the others,
find a formula for the reliability of the connection.

7. + If 𝑛 components are connected in parallel, each with reliability 𝑟 independent of the others,
find a formula for the reliability of the connection.