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Telecom Deregulation

Challenges &Opportunities for


Private Investors
June, 2004

WAIF GROUP

Copyright Salt Group 2004. All rights


reserved. Salt Group Proprietary Material
Objectives
• Telecom Deregulation in Pakistan
• Strengths of the Policy – Opportunities
• Challenges
• Conclusion

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Telecom Deregulation in Pakistan
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Pakistan Demographics
COUNTRY STATISTICS
Population 2002 147.5 million
Population Growth Rate 2.50%
Population under the age of 19 50.00%
Land Area 803,941 km2
Capital Islamabad
Local Currency Rupee
Annual Currency Inflation 3%
Currency Exchange Rate ~57 Rupees/Dollar
GDP 2002 US $ 61.3 billion
GDP Real Growth Rate 2002 2.60%
Per Capita GDP (PP Adjusted) $520 - $2200
Government Federal Republic

Source: BMA Capital Management Pakistan Research September 01,


2003
Source: Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd, 2003

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Liberalization activities and Potential Impact

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Telecommunication Bodies in Pakistan

� MOITT (Ministry of IT and Telecoms)


� Generation of Policy, and Oversight on PTA, FAB and PTCL.
� PTA (Pakistan Telecom Authority)
� Regulates the establishment, operation and maintenance of telecommunication systems
� Responsible for promoting rapid modernization of telecommunication systems and services
� FAB (Frequency Allocation Board)
� Allocates radio frequency spectrum to the Government, providers of telecommunication
services, radio and television broadcasting operators, public and private wireless operators
and others
� Separate from, but reporting to (at least in theory) PTA.
� PTCL (Pak Telecom Ltd.)
� Sole provider of fixed line domestic and international telephone service in Pakistan
� NTC (National telecommunication Corporation)
� Limited mandate to provide services to the Government
� SCO (Special Communications Organization)
� Limited mandate to provide services to Azad Kashmir

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Policy
• Telecommunication de-regulation policy has been prepared in line
with Government’s objective to de-regulate and liberalize various
sectors of the economy. The policy applies to opening up of the
fixed line telecom sector. The exclusive rights of PTCL to provide
basic telephone services, which it enjoyed under The Pakistan
Telecommunication (Re-Organization) Act 1996, have expired
since 31st December 2002.

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Policy Objectives
• Increase service offering at competitive and affordable rates.
• Promote infrastructure development, in turn increasing teledensity.
• Increase private investment.
• Minimize exposure to Government’s (PTCL) revenue in the short
term.
• Encourage fair competition.

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Objectives (Contd…)
• Maintain consistency with Pakistan’s IT and Internet promotion
policy to make Internet access affordable.
• Safeguard Pakistan’s national and security assets!
• An effective & well defined regulatory regime, consistent with
international best practices!
• Promotion of efficient use of spectrum.

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Analysis
• The deregulation policy of Pakistan is unique as it provides a blend
of regulatory guidelines along with policy direction and in certain
instances delves into details of regulatory mechanisms. Such
anomalies can lead to market dynamics that are not balanced and
driven by free and fair competition and may result in either sunk or
stifled capital investment.

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Policy Offerings
• Service Offering
– Local loop ("LL ") within a PTT region USD 10,000
– Long-distance and international ("LDI") USD 500,000
– Cellular Mobile Operations (2 Licenses Technology
Independent through ICB)
• Critical mass of the market by 2005;
– 6.5 Million fixed lines,
– 6 Million mobile phones,
– 5.0 Million Internet customers,
Map Showing Population Concentrations in Pakistan

Strengths of the Policy - Opportunity


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Pakistan - Demographics

• Economic affordability levels.


Income Groups 1995-96 CAGRs (1991-96) Extrapolated 2001 (Average)
Pak Urban Rural Pak Urban Rural Pak Urban Rural
Upto-Rs.1000 2.53% 1.34% 3.03% -20% -21% -20% 0.84% 0.42% 1.02%
Rs.1001-1500 4.33% 1.73% 5.44% -19% -24% -19% 1.46% 0.43% 1.93%
Rs.1501-2000 7.82% 3.55% 9.62% -11% -21% -9% 4.31% 1.10% 6.08%
Rs.2001-2500 11.03% 5.72% 13.27% -3% -14% 0% 8.45% 1.72% 11.51%
Rs.2501-3000 11.20% 8.00% 12.55% 2% -7% 6% 11.55% 4.67% 14.97%
Rs.3001-3500 12.27% 8.20% 11.14% 7% -3% 6% 13.08% 5.21% 13.22%
Rs.3501-4000 8.22% 7.79% 8.39% 5% 1% 7% 9.34% 7.07% 9.58%
Rs.4001-5000 12.80% 14.51% 12.07% 9% 8% 10% 14.81% 15.06% 14.42%
Rs.5001-6000 8.50% 11.44% 7.26% 10% 13% 9% 9.76% 13.84% 7.00%
Rs.6001-7000 5.63% 8.21% 4.54% 11% 11% 12% 6.59% 9.86% 5.86%
Rs.7001-10000* 5.30% 8.86% 3.80% 21% 23% 19% 6.10% 12.36% 4.59%
Rs.10000 & Above* 12.38% 20.67% 8.88% 21% 23% 19% 14.24% 28.84% 10.70%
* The two last income groups have been created by splitting the last segment (Rs.7,000 & above) by 30:70
ratio (own estimate)

Source: Concept Paper for Providing CDMA in Pakistan. IAC (Pvt.) Ltd. 2003
Pakistan - Demographics
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Pakistan - Demographics

o 23.34 % of population < 19 years (1998 census)


Pakistan - Demographics
Market Opportunity
� Current market size of Rs. 80 billion (USD 1.4 billion)
� Estimated annual voice market size of Rs. 200 billion (USD 3.5
billion)
� Key areas for growth
� Cellular
� Domestic long distance
� International long distance
� Wireless Local Loop
~ Note: Market estimation is based on achieving a penetration level of 8-10%

Source: BMA Capital Management Pakistan Research September 01, 2003

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Plummeting Costs
June 2000: US$ 87,000/E1 August 2002: US$ 3,600/E1

Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Mar-00 Nov-00 1-Jun 2-Aug

Source: MOST/PTA

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88,000
Mar-00 35,000
Bandwidth Available

August 2000: 32 Mb/s June 2002: 410 Mb/s


Operative Data bandwidth

>15 times increase


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Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 70
1-Jan 1-Jun Jun-02
Cellular Explosion

Jan 2001: 270,000 June 2003: 2,200,000

510,000

1-Jun 2-Jun
2,200,000

S o u r ce: M OS T/P TA

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Translating licenses into Business Opportunity

•A number of opportunities exist in the voice telecommunication


space, which are centered on obtaining the necessary licenses and
investing in the appropriate infrastructure. A number of players
have already begun to invest in the infrastructure by obtaining
comparable data and video communication licenses and are now in
a position to exploit the voice market. This in no way limits new
entrants to enter the market but rather provides acquisition and
consolidation opportunities.

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Deregulation- Telecom Services for the private sector

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Cellular Telephony
Current Scenario
• FourCellular Players already in the market. Two new GSM licenses
have been awarded. License fee set at a whooping USD 291m.
Additional Investment is required by all companies to expand and
improve their networks.
Opportunities/In vestment
• Obtain one of the existing cellular companies. Valuation could
range between 8-12 times earnings. Additional capital would be
required for expansion, and license renewal fee of USD 291 m for
all but two of the recently non-operation companies will have to be
paid.

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Long Distance & International License Opportunities
§ Obtain one of the long distance and international licenses, which
will require investment of 3-5 years of US$ 50M to US$ 400M+ plus
an additional US$ 10 million performance bond.
§ Partnerships will be required with right of way providers such as
Railways if fixed line infrastructure is to be developed.
§ Alternative can be to use satellite and IP networks to establish a
domestic long distance using VoIP technologies.

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OFN for PAK RAILWAYS- Potential to compete with PTCL!

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Local Loop License
• Obtain one or more licenses (multiple regions) for local loop that
require investment in infrastructure over the next 3-5 years of US$
25M to US$ 100M+ in each region. Such investments will allow the
new operator to have a competing network to PTCL. The cost of
investment can range from US$ 200 to US$500 per access line.
• Implement infrastructure that will allow voice, data and video
communications thus allowing you to become a convergent
telecommunication player.
• Enter the market by setting up DSL, broadband or other data /
video networks. Use the lead time to expand into voice market at a
later date.

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Wireless Statistics
� Cellular penetration
reached 1.43% in the last
decade

� Growth rates of over 90%+


for the last two years

� Average cellular
penetration in the South
Asian region is greater
than 10%

� With over 3.0 million


cellular customers, the
cellular industry has been
growing faster than the
fixed line.

� Growth due to the


introduction of Caller Party
Pays (CPP) and Pre-Paid
Cards

Source: Paul Budde


Communication Pty Ltd,
2003
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Analysis
• Asa guideline document for the regulatory agency, the policy
provides legal competitive opening for private sector to invest in
highly lucrative basic telecom services, which have been so far
accessible only to 3% of Pakistan’s population.

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Challenges

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The beginning of Dilemma; Policy or Regulation
Regulation Policy
• Public Welfare Objectives • Public Welfare Objectives
Sector specific • Provides Sector-specific vision
§ Provides a mechanism for Market • Identifies Priority areas
Management • Promotes private participation
§ Consumer Choice at affordable prices • Promotes investment
§ Encourages Competition • Promotes Employment
• Is a legal instrument • Consolidate with overall economic policy
• Provides well defined Rules and Regulations • Protect National Interest
§ Ensues level playing field for all • Provides Certainty and clarity of goals
§ Controls barriers to entry and exit • Consolidate with Multilateral and bilateral
commitments
§ Limits # of players
• Subject to change in Political Leadership
§ Protects Domestic Industry
• Industry specific
§ Subject to change in Law or legislation
• General
§ Subject to market conditions and changes
• Promulgated by the Ministry
technology changes
§ Industry specific
§ Explicitly identified modus operandi
§ The Regulator runs the show
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Policy Vs Policing
Pakistan India
• National Telecom Policy (NTP) 1994
• Telecom Policy 2003 • NTP 1999
• Mobile Cellular Policy 2004
………
Malaysia
• National Telecom Policy (NTP) of
What comes next, may be Malaysia 1994-2020

§ Broadband Policy?
§ Satellite Policy?
§ Interconnection Policy?
§ SMP Policy?
§ Rural Development Policy?
• R&D Policy?
• USO Policy?

Then what is the role of a Regulator?


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Comparison of Policy Framework

Pakistan India Malaysia


• Telecom & Mobile Sector Policies • Single Policy •Single Policy
• Sets objectives • Mission

• Covers Spectrum allocation, licensing • general guiding principles • Macro & Micro Objectives

process, QoS, licensing fees, • Strategy

interconnection, migration process, R&D,


USF, APC

Whereas, Policy should provide general guiding principles and regulator


has to define the modalities of various sectors of Telecom.
Experience shows that over-commitment has always fired-back.

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SWOT Analysis of
IT&Telecom Market WEAKNESSES
STRENGTHS • Branding
• Regional & Domestic Political Instability
• Low production cost
• Weak economy & corporate profiles
• Skilled Human Resource
• Customer Confidence
• Availability of infrastructure
• Liberal policies for IT investments

THREATS
OPPORTUNITIES • Ad Hoc Decisions From
Authorities
• Market Size
• Political Instability
• Privatization & liberalization of
Govt IT operations & projects
• Innovation
Challenges for LDI operations
• PTCL has a strong fiber optic back haul across the country. With
tributaries covering around 75% of the towns.
• PTCL has installed two self healing DWDM rings, supplied by M/s
Nortel Networks and Huawei.
• NTC still has a dark fiber pair on the complete existing network of
PTCL.
• PTCL coastal fiber optic project is also underway, connecting
Karachi to Gawadar.

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Contd…
• NTC is planning to lay down coastal fiber connecting Karachi to
Jewani.
• International connectivity through SMW-3 and FLAG.
• Ample amount of existing infrastructure/bandwidth for LL operators
to lease from PTCL/NTC. By virtue of which the incumbent shall
remain the major player in the near future!

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Main & Alternate OFN of PTCL
Mansehr
a
Abbot a ba d
Ha v e lia n
Ha ripur R W P
Pe s ha wa r
45 28 44
39
Now he ra Taxila Sia lkot
Da ra Ada m 20
Gu rat
Koha t j
Kha ria n
58 42
Ahm e di Ba nda 40 Sha ha na lok
46 R R I I J J D as ka
R R G ojra
Lat a m be r I I N N H H W az ira
I I ba d
34 E E
Ba nnu V D V V
46 M urid
22 E E U U L L
Bha lw a l R I V E R
E E
upura 29
R R S S U U C H E N A B She ikh
49 R R M M
43
She hba z Khe l 39 31
Ahm e dna ga r Ma naw a la La hore
Ya rik Sa rgodha
36 Sha hkot
D. I . Kha n 35
41
Bh akkarFa isalab ad
Sa m unda ri
49
Ka ror La l Ehs a n F a t e h p u r
42 35 30
J um ma n R I V E R R A V I

44 Oka ra
Kot Addu M uza ffa r Kha ne wa l
N e w M ulta n 35 46 41
44 Ga rh Sa hiwa l
Qure s hi C how k 40 8 46 47
D. G . Kha n 24
39 43 M ulta n Arifw a l a
J a m pur 48 Sa diq w a la a Bure w a la
46 42
Lodhra
Fa z ilpur Banha wa lpur
53
R I V E R 42
44
R ojha n I na ya t pur
45
48 Dera
Jattan
Kas hm or 46
48
Ka ndh 46 Sa rda r G a rh
27 40 R a him ya r Kha n 43
H. Biha r C ha k 32
40 41 D he rki
ka rpu r 27 G hot ki Pa no
Aqil 39
42 Sukkur
27
Kha irpu r
46
R a nipur

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Mansehra

NTC OPTICAL FIBER CABLES Mardan


sheraTaxilaAbbotabad
Havelian 3
Haripur 4 42 Kharian Gujra
Sialkot

CONFIGURATION
Peshawar RWP
J 40 Shahanalok
39 Daska
N R I R H Gojr
Dara Adam 20 I N
Kohat VD I EV a
45 28 Wazirabad
58 EU L
Ahmedi Banda R E Bhalwal
RS
46 UM
Latamber 1
Gujranwala
34
Bannu 22 Sargodha Lahore
Sarai Naurang 6
D.I.Khan Ahmednaga
49 41
Shehbaz Khel 3 Faisalabad
r Samundari
Fatehpur 35
Yarik 30
Okara
akkar 46 41
49 Sahiwal
Karor Lal Ehsan
Qureshi Chowk 40 8 46 47 Arifwala
Kot Addu New Multan
35 42
JummanFazilpur Bahawalp
53 44
RIVER 42
Khanqah
Garh Kot Bahadar SUTLEJ 45
42 RIVER RAVI
D.G.Khan 24
39 43 Multan
48 Sadiqwala
Jampur 46

R o j h a 44 45 Inayat pur n

45 Qazi Ahmed
Sakrand
46 Saeedabad
40 Seekhat LEGEND
33 Hyderabad

Nawabshah MAIN OPTICAL FIBRE LINKS


ALTERNATE OPTICAL FIBRE LINK
PINDI - PESHAWAR O/F LINK SPUR
ROUT
TERMINAL/ADD-DROP STATION
REPEATER STATION

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Local Loop License
• Moving from monopoly status, PTCL is very aggressively launching
new services and access technologies.
• PTCL is laying a Fiber optic access network in Karachi, Lahore,
and Islamabad.
• WorldCall is also laying its HFC network in Karachi and Lahore.
• TeleCard has already implemented a CDMA 1x WLL network of
150k phones in an O&M agreement with PTCL.
• Many of the telecom regions cannot sustain themselves if the
network does not have similar operations in high ARPU areas like,
Karachi, Punjab, Peshawar.

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TeleCard's Strategy – Migrate CDMA WLL to Mobility

� Telecard is planning to cut prices from Pak Rs. 3/minute to Pak Paisa
30/minute
� Recently signed a contract with M/s Lucent for deployment of EV-DO
network
� Telecard plans to move gradually towards:
� Incoming calls on PCO’s
� CDMA Fixed Wireless Terminals – in addition to Payphones for
Residences and SOHO
� Then move towards CDMA Handsets

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PTCL
� PTCL is deploying a CDMA WLL based network across the country (14
regions)
� These deployments are in 450 MHz band
� Huawei will provide CDMA infrastructure
� PTCL is considering CDMA mobile handsets as well as FWT for terminal
distribution
� Pak. Rs. 7000 for handset & Rs. 9000 for FWT
� Initial deployments will focus on rural areas
� PTCL plans to Later Expand WLL services to urban regions.

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Radio Frequency Spectrum
• Due to deregulation there has been a sudden influx of telecom
companies into the market. The RF spectrum has become the
single most important commodity for the Local Loop operators.
Open bidding is the set modus operandi for the auction of spectrum
as was the case with CMT licenses. Judging the way the auction
went for mobile telephony, the RF is going to take up major part of
the CAPEX. This will in turn adversely affect the cost of service and
subsequent business plans.
• 33 parties initially showed interest for mobile license with only 9
coming to the table. For LL an approximate 100 parties are going to
apply.

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AWARD OF CELLULAR MOBILE TELEPHONY LICENSES HELD ON
WEDNESDAY THE 14TH APRIL 2004 AT ISLAMABAD SERENA HOTEL
FIRST - STAGE [SEALED BIDS] US $ millions

• TELENOR Mobile Communication, Norway 161 .000


• WARID Telecom, Pakistan 151 .000
• SPELL Telecom –FAUJI Foundation – AWT, Pakistan 140.000
• WORLDCALL Communications, Pakistan 130.000
• SPACE Telecom, Pakistan 101 .000
• SABAFON, Yemen 100.000
• INVESTCOM Holding, Luxembourg 100.000
• RUPANOVA, Pakistan 88.000
• Dubai INTERNET City 41 .000

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SECOND – STAGE [OPEN OUT-CRY] US $ millions

§ TELNOR Mobile Communication, Norway: 167/ 170/ 173/ 176/ 179/ 185/ 188/
191/ 194/ 203/ 206/ 209/ 212/ 215/ 219/ 222/ 229/ 232/ 235/ 238/ 241/ 244/ 247/ 252/ 255/
258/ 261/ 275/ 278/ 291
§ WARID Telecom, Pakistan :166/ 169/ 172/ 175/ 178/ 181/ 187/ 190/ 193/ 202/
205/ 208/ 211/ 214/ 217/ 220/ 223/ 230/ 233/ 236/ 239/ 243/ 246/ 251/ 254/ 257/ 260/ 266/
277/ 283/---291
§ SPELL Telecom – Fauji Foundation – AWT, Pakistan :171/ 174/ 177/ 180/
189/ 192/ 201/ 204/ 207/ 210/ 213/ 218
§ WORDCALL Communications, Pakistan:165
§ SPACE Telecom, Pakistan :168/ 216/ 221/ 228/ 231/ 234/ 237/ 240/ 242/ 245/
250/ 253/ 256/ 259/ 265/ 276/ 279/ 291

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Significant Market Power (SMP)

• PTA has yet to declare any Mobile Operator as SMP.


• What is going to be the scope of Anti-competitive provisions will be
enforced by PTA in the license?
• Neither the policy, nor the license details any obligations of SMP or a
recourse for any non-SM P.


“A private monopoly is more dangerous than a public monopoly!

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Quality of Service (QoS)

• A major strength of policy as it sets benchmarks for operators to


achieve.
• The benchmarks have to be more specific, i.e. standard for blocking at
the Air Interface, Interconnect etc.
• No signal quality parameters (e.g. indoor coverage) have been
defined in the policy.

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Universal Service Obligation (USO) &
Access Promotion Contribution (APC)

• Mobile operators have to pay 1.5% of their gross revenue minus inter-
operator and PTA mandated payments to a USO fund.
• These funds will be allocated to operators in order to subsidize service
provisioning to rural and low income areas.
• No guidelines regarding eligibility for USF payments been set.
(Operators cannot incorporate USF in their business plans)
• No vehicle for disbursement of USO has been established.

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Universal Service Obligation (USO) &
Access Promotion Contribution (APC)
• Mobile Operators are not eligible to receive APC. The APC premium
will be diverted to USF instead.
• The objective (V) of the policy states,” Fair competition amongst
mobile and fixed line operators”.

Does granting the Wireless Local Loop operators the right to offer
limited mobility and denying the mobile operators the right to Receive
APC premium qualify as fair competition???

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Investment Rates Required
• Thepotential for future growth of this sector remains high, as there
is pent-up demand in both the urban and rural areas. This is
evidenced by the fact that PTCL has over 200,000 pending orders
for new connections at any given time and that additional capacity
in the cellular network was almost immediately booked when Ufone
entered the market. The general limiting factor remains available
infrastructure, which has been one of the lowest in the region

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Investment rates comparison as a % of GDP for
Asian Countries

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Local Loop
§ Market potential for WLL services exists and is estimated to be 11
million households by year 2011 if the most suitable technologies
are utilized.
§ The feasibility of the business case depends on several factors
including the available spectrum, demographics and the required
services.
§ In this respect the total cost advantage of a CDMA2000 1x EV-DO
operating at 450 MHz are clear.

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Cellular Mobile Telephony
• 2 Additional Mobile Licenses Added to Crowded Market:
– 4 Current Mobile Carriers with 3M Subs. (3 GSM, 1 DAMPS
may be moving to CDMA).
– Limited High ARPU Subscribers - Cannot Support 6 Carriers
and License fee.
– Possible auction of other 3G licenses
• Limited Mobility WLL networks set to adversely effect revenue
streams, especially the ones using 3G technologies.

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Long Distance & International
• Need partnerships with ROW providers.
• Time to market substantially high.
• Abundant capacity already available. (PTCL/NTC)
• Massive amounts of investments (Human, Capital, Other
Resources) Required.
• Feasible for companies with large internal traffic generation e.g.
Mobilink.
• Next Generation Deployments may reap great revenues in the
times to come. e.g. Reliance India.
• Piggybacking on incumbents network i.e. leasing bandwidth, with
personal investment in VoIP gateways is a viable option.

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OPPORTUNITY?!

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Thank You

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