1/12/2019 Wealth Overview

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GDP growth expected to improve mildly in FY2019

Speak of the Week 22 hours ago

GDP growth expected to improve mildly in FY2019

https://www.icicibank.com/wealth-management/insights/wealth-overview.page?insightcategory=Article&insightid=insight-gdp-growth-expected-to-improve-mildly-in-fy2019-20191101122244546#IEU 1/5
1/12/2019 Wealth Overview

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Indian Economic Update

Advance estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for FY2019 were
released. The Central Statistics Office expects GDP growth to pick up to 7.2% YoY in
FY2019 from 6.7% YoY in FY2018, while Gross Value Added (GVA) growth is expected
to clock 7.0% YoY as compared to 6.5% YoY in the last fiscal. Since GDP growth in H1
FY2019 has been ~7.6% YoY, growth is expected to slow down to ~6.8% YoY in the
second half of the ongoing fiscal.
Growth of agriculture is expected to rise slightly to 3.8% YoY in FY2019 from 3.4% YoY
in FY2018. Industrial growth is expected to sharply improve in FY2019. Manufacturing
growth has been estimated to clock 8.3%. The public administration and defence
component is expected to see a somewhat surprisingly sharp deceleration this fiscal.
Private consumption expenditure growth is expected to slow marginally in FY2019.
Gross fixed capital formation is expected to return to double-digit growth.

Global Update

The US labour market report came in much stronger than expected as employment
increased by 312K in the month of December against expectation of a 180K increase.
Average Hourly earnings increased by 3.2%, its highest since April 2009, while
unemployment rate disappointed slightly as it increased by 0.2% to 3.9% in December.
The change in jobs gains for previous two months were revised upwards by 58k
combined, with the 3-month average at 254K per month.
The Information Handling Services (IHS) Markit Services Purchasing Managers Index
(PMI) for US came in at 54.4 in December, above a preliminary estimate of 53.4 but
https://www.icicibank.com/wealth-management/insights/wealth-overview.page?insightcategory=Article&insightid=insight-gdp-growth-expected-to-improve-mildly-in-fy2019-20191101122244546#IEU 2/5
1/12/2019 below November's reading of 54.7. Wealth Overview
The tone of the US Fed minutes indicated that members are not in favour of continued
tightening in 2019 without paying heed to incoming data.
China’s foreign exchange reserves rose by USD 11 billion in December to USD 3.073
trillion.

Equity
Indian equities ended higher, tracking positive cues from global markets. Advances in
financials and Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) stocks supported the markets. The
market is showing optimism over forthcoming Q3 earnings.

During the week Sensex gained 0.88% to close at 36009.84 while Nifty advanced 0.63% to
close at 10794.95.

Debt
Government bond prices ended lower, as concerns over government's fiscal position,
sustained rise in crude oil prices weighed on the sentiment.

The 10Y benchmark yield ended at 7.59% as compared to the previous week’s close of
7.45%.

Oil
Oil prices traded higher, as the extension of U.S.-China talks in Beijing raised hopes that the
world's two largest economies would resolve their trade standoff. Fed’s easier stance and
expectations that inventories should drop are boosting investor sentiment.

https://www.icicibank.com/wealth-management/insights/wealth-overview.page?insightcategory=Article&insightid=insight-gdp-growth-expected-to-improve-mildly-in-fy2019-20191101122244546#IEU 3/5
1/12/2019 Wealth Overview
Gold
Gold prices remained steady, due to dovish Fed and institutional instability in the US.

Currency
The Rupee ended weaker against the US Dollar, as Brent crude oil prices topped crucial USD
60 barrels per day (bpd) mark.
Dollar index is trading lower because of the risk-on environment in the market.
USD/CNY pair has moved to its lowest level since July 2018.

Source: ICICI Bank Research, Private Banking Investment Strategy Team, Bloomberg and
CRISIL.

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