Cohort Studies

Cohort studies describe change by selecting a different sample at each data-collection point
from a population that remains constant. For example, suppose that we wished to study the
yearly work status ofall elementary school teachers who received California teaching
certificates in 1992. We would list the names of all members of this population, and at each
data-collection point we would randomly select a sample from the list. Thus, the population
would remain the same, but different individuals would be sampled each year. In contrast, in
a trend study the population is likely to change at each data-collection point.

A report of research conducted at the Sandia National Laboratories by C. C. Carson,

R.M. Huelskamp, and T. D. Woodall includesa cohort study of the high school completion
rate of a single cohort of students (the class of 1982). The study, based on data from the
National Center for Educational Statistics, involved a national sample of high school students
who were projected to complete their senior year in 1982. The researchers followed the
students from 1980 to 1986. The purpose of the study was to provide the most accurate
measure possible of the current dropout rate of students from U.S. high schools.

The study’s findings are summarized in Figure 10 . The figure shows the percentage of
the class of 1982 who had completed high school at three points in time – 1982, 1984, and
1986. Only 82,7 percent of the students surveyed in 1982 had completed high school on time
(by 1982). The percentage of students in this cohort who had completed high school by 1984
was 5,2 percent higher than in 1982, and the percentage who had completed high school by
1986 was 2,8 percent higher than in 1984. These students either had graduated froma regular
high school or had earned the General Equivalency Degree (GED). Thus, less than 10percent
of this cohort would be classified as dropouts based on this expanded time frame.this is a
substantially lower dropout rate than is reported in nonlongitudinal studies (typically, 25 to
30 percent).

Some trend and cohort studies are carried out using earlier data collected by other
researchers. For example, suppose a survey of the vocationalinterest of seniors in Chicago

Gambar

high schools had been carried out in 1985. Another researcher could do a trend study by
collecting comparable data in 1995 and comparing the two sets of data. In conducting
replications of this type, the researchers should use the same questions and format as in as in
the earlier surveys. There is some evidence and much practical experience to indicate that
small changes in the wording of questions on a survey can produce large effects on answers
(see Chapter 8).
Panel Studies

The third type of longitudinal research design is the panel study. A panel study involves
selecting a sample at the outset of the study and then at each subsequent data-collection point
surveying the same sample. Because panel studies follow the same individuals over time, you
can note changes in specific individuals and also explore possible reasons why these
individuals have changed. In contrast, individual changes cannot be explored in trend or
cohort studies because different individuals make up the sample at each data-collection point.

Repeated measurements on apanelsample can have uninteded side effects. Having been
given the instrument or interview once, individuals have time to consider their answer for the
next data collection. Furthermore, knowing that they are members of the panel may create
expectation. For example, Terman’s famous study of talent identified a panel of child
geniuses and followed their development through childhood into adult-hood. The
identification process itself may have created expectations that were self-fulfilling and thus
changed the nature of the results.

Loss of subjects can be a problem in a panel study, especially when the study extends
over long period of time. Lauress Wise conducted a large-scale panel study in which a
national sample of tweifth-grade students was followed into adulthood. A variety of
procedures was used to encourage continuing participation in the study, including an annual
newsletter and four mailings to members of the sample during each follow-up period. The
response rate was 61,0 percent for a one-year follow-up, 37,9 percent after 5 years,and 27,9
percent after 11 years. Because of the problem of retaining an intact group over time, panel
studies tend to be shorter in duration than other longitudinal studies.

Not only do the number of subjects in a panel study become smaller over time, but the
subjects who remain in the sample tend to be a blased sample, because subjects who drop out
are likely to be different from those who continue to participate in the study. In the Wise
panel study, respondents to the 11-year follow-up were as much as one-half a standard
deviation higher in general academic aptitude than nonrespondents, reflecting a strong
sampling bias. (In Chapter 6 we discuss typical differences between research volunteers and
nonvolunteers.)

Despite problems of attrition and repeated measurement, longitudinal research using a

panel design has advantages over trend and cohort research. Because the same individuals are
measured at each data-collection point, the panel design is sensitive to smaller changes than
comparably sized samples in cohort or trend studies. Panel studies also have the advantage of
identifying who is changing and in what way. We then can trace back to the events and
characteristics of the individuals that might have contributed ti the change.

Cross-Sectional Studies

Longitudinal research is difficult because of the extended time period during which
data must be collected and the challenge of obtaining comparable subjects at each data
collection point. To counter these problems, researchers can simulate longitudinal research by
doing cross sectional research. In a cross sectional design the data are obtained at one point in
time, but from groups of different ages or at different stages of development. For example,
suppose you were interested in how dtudents’ attitudes toward mathematics change from
seventh grade to twelfth grade. To study this problem using a cross sectional design, you
could select a sample of students at each grade level and administer a questionnaire to all of
them on the same date or within a narrow range of dates. Thus, the data collection period is
very short an sample attrition is not an issue.

Cross sectional research, howeven has several limitations. A major problem is the
effect in changes in the population that accour over time. For example, in the above example,
the seventh grade sample probably is representative of all students who are eligible to be in
seventh grade because few students have droppes out of school at this grade level. However,
because many students drop out before high school granduation, the twelfth grade sample is
unlikely to be representative of all students eligible to be in twelfth grade. Many of these
students are no longer in school. Had a panel design been used instead, we would start with a
sample of seventh graders and trace thei attitude toward mathematics for a period of years.
Some students in the sample might drop out of scool over time, but changes in their attitudes
for the period of time that they did remain in scholl could be analized.