The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 1

The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.)

Chris McMillan

Methodist University
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 2

Abstract

Membership in the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) (PCUSA) has been on a steady decline since

1965 and shows no signs of abatement. This paper presents demographic and statistical data

from a variety of sources to illustrate the decline in membership and will answer two basic

questions: 1) What are the causes, both real and perceived, behind this decline, and 2) What steps

can denominational leadership take to reverse this trend? Information from the Presbyterian

Church USA national website (http://www.pcusa.org), interviews with denominational leaders at

both the Presbytery and individual church levels, numerous articles in both the denominational

and secular press, and interviews with individual Presbyterian Church goers are presented in

order to demonstrate the gap in perception of the issue between church leaders and congregants.

Recommendations are then made as to how best to bridge this gap in perception and thus provide

an opportunity to engage in efforts that will increase membership in the PCUSA.

The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 3

The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA

Membership in the Presbyterian Church USA (PCUSA) reached a high of 4.3 million

members in 1965 but has been declining since that time (see Appendix A). Member losses in

2012 and 2013 were the largest declines in membership since the mid-seventies. Not only is the

denomination losing individual members, the number of churches is down as well. There were

224 fewer churches in the denomination in 2013 than in 2012 and half of those churches still left

in the denomination have less than 89 members and no installed pastor. Deaths of members in

2013 outpaced baptisms by 6,222 and transfers into the denomination by profession of faith were

down by 5,332 from 2012 to 2013. The pace of decline in membership is not sustainable.

Extending this trend into the future leads to the conclusion that the denomination could

potentially cease to exist within fifteen years (Kincaid, 2014).

Two questions immediately come to mind. What drives this decline and what steps can

be taken to reverse this trend? The answers to those questions depend on who is asked. Leaders

at the national and presbytery levels tend to either ignore the issue or point to the disengagement

of the membership from the leadership of the denomination. Grass-roots members argue that the

theology of the denominational leadership does not mesh well with the thinking of a majority of

the congregants and even if it did, leadership at the national and presbytery levels has never

made much of an effort to engage and/or support the individual congregations. Both sides

support their arguments passionately, but while church goers and leadership are at odds, the

denominational boat continues to leak members, pastors, and whole congregations at an alarming

rate.
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 4

By the Numbers

According to the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, 51.3% of adult Americans are

Protestant, with 18.1% of adults belonging to mainline Protestant churches, of which the PCUSA

is a part. Based on figures from the United States Census Bureau, the population of the United

States is nearly 319 million, which puts the number of mainline Protestants at almost 58 million

(Pew, 2014) . Baptists comprise the largest subsection of Protestants with Methodists,

Lutherans, and Pentecostals following. Presbyterians fall in line next in terms of membership

with 2.7% of the total adult population. However, the PCUSA can only claim less than half that

total for an overall membership of 1.8 million, according to Research Services of the PCUSA

(see Appendix A). The Pew research notes that:

Although scholars contributing to this research have adopted a variety of definitions of

major religious groups and pursued various approaches to measuring change over time,

all the research arrives at a similar conclusion: The proportion of the population that is

Protestant has declined markedly in recent decades while the proportion of the population

that is not affiliated with any particular religion has increased significantly. (Pew, 2014)

This downward trend in Protestant membership is also substantiated by the General Social

Surveys (GSS) conducted by the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago

from 1972 to 2006. This survey also shows a decline in membership in Protestant churches

overall. However, according to a Gallup survey released in December 2013, the number of

Americans who report attending church has remained fairly steady since 1950, and, since 1965 it

has been almost constant at 40% ± 3 percentage points. (See Appendix B) Based on these

surveys, it is clear that church attendance is not down, but membership in Protestant churches is.

This decline in Protestant membership is especially troubling for the PCUSA as they are
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 5

relatively small to begin with, so further declines in membership are more critical for them as

opposed to denominations with larger populations. Furthermore, Presbyterians have a lower rate

of retention than most of the other Protestant denominations. Approximately 60% of adults who

were raised Presbyterian have switched religious affiliation as adults. This low retention rate

combined with the net loss of members between deaths and converts referenced earlier signals a

trend that, if it continues, will render the denomination virtually obsolete in the next 15 to 20

years. This demise may be hastened once the denomination falls below a critical mass of

members necessary to keep itself viable practically and financially. The one bright spot in the

numbers may be that of the 60% of those who were Presbyterian as children and then left the

denomination, 36% moved to another Protestant denomination, with about half going to an

evangelical denomination and the other half going to another mainline denomination. This

would seem to indicate that it’s not a change in religious beliefs on the part of the individual

members that is driving this movement away from the PCUSA, but rather that these people have

become disenchanted with the PCUSA itself. While it may seem unusual to see this as a

positive, it indicates that the PCUSA may control its own destiny. A major change in religious

beliefs by the population at large would indicate that factors outside the scope of control of the

denomination are at work, whereas disenchantment with the denomination is completely within

the scope of control of the denomination.

Differing Viewpoints

Given the data provided by the PCUSA, how has the denominational leadership

responded to the issue of declining membership? It seems to depend on the level of

denominational leadership that is referenced. The Reverend Gradye Parsons, Stated Clerk of the
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 6

General Assembly of the PCUSA, stated in a May 29, 2014, news release from the Office of the

General Assembly of the PCUSA:

Yes, the numbers reflect a decrease in active members in the denomination, but the

numbers also illustrate fewer losses than the previous year. The membership declined by

89,296 in 2013, compared to 102,791 in 2012. We are meeting the challenges we have

had and it’s showing, and our decline in total congregations is holding fairly steady.

(PCUSA, 2014)

In a presentation to the PCUSA Board of Pensions on April 17, 2013, Parsons addresses

the declining number of members and acknowledges that although numbers for the PCUSA are

declining:

The fact that fewer Americans say they have a religious identity does not

necessarily mean there has been a decrease in overall religiosity in America. It is

possible that some proportion of those who don’t identify with a specific religion

are still personally or spiritually religious. (Parsons, 2013)

Parsons is addressing the issue of that portion of the population referred to as the

“Nones”, those people who say they are spiritual or religious, but do not affiliate with a

particular denomination. In short, he seems to pawn some of the issue of declining membership

in the PCUSA off on general trends in society. However, even after acknowledging declines in

membership and the increase in people who are not religiously affiliated and the increase in

people who aren’t even interested in becoming affiliated, his stated strategy is that the PCUSA

must think for itself, stand for what it believes, become more multicultural, love everyone, and

hope for a positive outcome. To quote Rudy Giuliani from his September 2008 Republican
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 7

National Convention speech, “hope is not a strategy.” More should be expected from the leader

of a denomination that has been losing members steadily for forty years than a strategy of “let’s

hope for the best.”

The viewpoint from the Presbytery level seems to be similar to that at the national level.

In an email exchange with a mission coordinator from the Presbytery of Coastal Carolina, when

posed with the question of whether denominational leadership played any part in the decline, the

response was:

There have been many articles and studies done on mainline decline. Few of those

articles pin the decline on “denominational leadership” as you mention. There are cases

made for cultural shifts, lack of denominational loyalty, lower birth rates, churches frozen

in the 1950’s style and music, poorly trained pastors (introverts/no evangelism training),

endowment funds removing accountability, people moving to the suburbs, the appeal of

“Mall style” churches with coffee shops, children’s programs like music and art,

multimedia sermons, etc. There is decline is in the Southern Baptist church, the PCUSA,

Lutheran, Methodist, and more. Many people are shifting to non-denominational

churches. Remember that decline happens in local churches over time. In the case of

PCUSA we have entire congregations leaving to other reformed bodies which skews the

numbers. (Personal communication, August 26, 2014)

While Presbytery seems to have a somewhat more definite strategy to address the issue of

declining membership, their attitude towards this issue is that the fault for the decline rests solely

with the individual congregations. Presbytery is currently executing a Listening, Learning,

Dreaming Together project which involves a committee from the Presbytery conducting face to

face interviews with members seeking ideas on how to strengthen the denomination. Presbytery
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 8

also offers one-on-one coaching with congregations seeking to make better use of their resources

and to expand their opportunities for ministry. However, the general mood of the Presbytery

seems to be that if participation in programs such as these isn’t happening, the individual

congregations are to blame for not taking advantage of Presbytery’s offerings. It doesn’t seem to

occur to them that low participation rates could be due to a lack of perceived quality in the

programs offered or poor communication of the existence of the programs. Perhaps low

participation rates could even be due to a lack of trust in Presbytery by the individual

congregations.

The view from the individual congregation and member level is revealing. In the

response section of the article “2012 Statistics Show Dramatic Decrease in PCUSA Membership,

Congregations” (Kincaid, 2014) quotes such as the following appear:

I was a member of Presbyterian USA (sic) and left because the church has left the

bible, tradition, prayer, faith and grace behind. My former church, a website in

Cincinnati does not mention the words Jesus or Christ. The minister offered no

personal prayer! The church became a social service organization, nothing more.

If the central body and the ministers have no faith that Christ is the Savior, that

the bible is the word of God, that a worship service is to honor God almighty, then

this church holds neither meaning nor hope for hundreds of thousands of

Presbyterians. That is why we left and are seeking the gospel in other churches.

I wonder if the national office really cares whether it has people in the pews. If

they were just a national office operating off the earnings from the

denomination’s endowments they would be entirely free to pursue their liberal

The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 9

political impulses, just another Washington political lobby, one that uses “Jesus”

words.

I would be interested in participating in a constructive discussion of a couple

points in the article. Specifically, “The 2012 statistics challenge us as

Presbyterians to connect with the ever-growing number of those with no religious

affiliation,” and “Why not study them [churches that are growing in this

environment] and invest the denomination’s significant resources in retooling

itself to become a more effective proponent of the gospel?” We’ve all heard the

definition of insanity, “repeating the same actions but expecting a different

outcome.” There are two paths then; to change what we are doing or be irrelevant

and crazy! The Great Commission directs us to make disciples – if we can be

found faithful to that, then I think size will take care of itself. The goal is not to be

the biggest church, but like the old Wendy’s commercial, “Where’s the beef?!”

God grant us wisdom.

These comments echo many of the thoughts expressed over the years by large numbers of

PCUSA members. Individual members consistently point to the lack of a Scriptural basis in

preaching and worship, the disconnect in communication between the upper levels of the

organization and the grassroots, and the apparent lack of a change in course from the leadership

when it seems obvious the current course is ineffective in retaining members. Blogger Jacob

Lupfer captures the grassroots mood well in his June 21, 2014, blog entry “Is the PCUSA *that*

Liberal? Yes.” (Lupfer, 2014) He specifically points to the diverging viewpoints on important

social and theological issues between the laity and the pastors of the PCUSA. He points directly

to this divergence as a major reason for the mass defections from the denomination.
The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 10

Conclusions and Recommendations

What conclusions can we draw from the data and the divergent expressions of

viewpoints? It is obvious that the national and presbytery levels of leadership are not in synch

theologically with many of the individual churches they serve. This is evidenced both by the

mass of negative comments from individuals towards the leadership and the exodus of so many

whole congregations to other denominations. National leadership has not expressed a concrete

strategy to address the decline in membership. Leadership at the Presbytery level is attempting

to address the issue, but is either not hearing or hearing and not acting upon the voice of their

customers, the individual congregations. While it is true many programs exist that purport to aid

congregations with growth and change, the membership has been on a steady decline for forty

years. These programs have not and are not working. The fact that many congregations refuse

to avail themselves of these programs, for a number of reasons already stated, indicates that other

ideas are needed. The leadership will argue that they have not contributed to the loss of

members, but at some point the leadership has to take ownership of the problem and realize that

if they are not part of the solution, they are part of the problem. Taking inappropriate action, or

taking ineffective action, is no better than complete inaction.

How do we reverse this downward spiral? Three recommendations come to mind.

Certainly this is not an exhaustive list, but it is a good start at trying new ideas that attack

specific elements of the larger problem.

The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 11

1. Increase visibility of the church on college campuses. It is a fact that young

people who grow up in the church drift away in their late teens and early twenties

and don’t return, if they return at all, until they begin a family. The data shows

that the PCUSA has one of the lowest retention rates of any of the Protestant

denominations (Presbyterian Mission, 2014). The Baptists have one of the best

retention rates and by no coincidence have one of the most active college campus

programs, the Baptist Student Union, of any of the denominations. By increasing

and enhancing the analogous Presbyterian campus program, PCUSA could do a

better job of retaining young Presbyterians and possibly capturing new members.

This would also be an excellent opportunity to give these young adults

opportunities to serve in these churches and possibly learn how to be church

leaders, such as elders, deacons, and Sunday school teachers.

2. Devote new church development resources to existing congregations. This seems

counterintuitive, but what is meant here is instead of trying to build new

worshiping communities, begin with existing churches with small memberships

and a high median age of members and devote resources to recruiting young

families with children into these congregations. Initially it would be akin to

starting a “new “church within an existing congregation. The existing members

could maintain their status quo with Sunday school classes and social groups

while the new members could form new Sunday school classes and social groups

and possibly even a separate worship service. The benefit is in leveraging an

existing building, an existing business staff, and an existing pastor while you are

beginning a new, sustainable worshiping community.

The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 12

3. Make Presbytery more visible at the local church level. For many congregations

Presbytery is akin to a unicorn; they’ve heard stories about it but they’ve never

actually seen it. Both Presbytery and the individual congregations complain about

the disconnect between the two groups, but no one seems to be willing to bridge

the gap. Presbytery should establish a visitation committee and commit to at least

one visit by a committee member to every church in the Presbytery at least once

over the course of a year. Certainly this will take a moderate amount of dedicated

volunteers, but it also is a show of action on the part of Presbytery that it is

serious about improving relations with the congregations. It also provides

Presbytery with the opportunity to listen to the voice of its customers and collect

information that can be used to make its programs more customer-focused and

effective.

The PCUSA did not arrive at its current low membership numbers overnight and it

will not reverse the trend of declining membership quickly. However, to continue to

follow programs and policies that have only led to a loss of members every year for the

last forty years is ludicrous. New avenues must be pursued and denominational

leadership must lead the way. Otherwise, the individual members will blaze their own

paths and to this point that has been a path out of the denomination.
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Appendix A

PCUSA Membership Numbers 1965 – 2012 (Presbyterian Mission, 2014)

Year Reported Year to Percent

Membership Year Change
Change

1965 4254597
1966 4249765 -4832 -0.114%
1967 4225247 -24518 -0.577%
1968 4187154 -38093 -0.902%
1969 4125934 -61220 -1.462%
1970 4049391 -76543 -1.855%
1971 3966443 -82948 -2.048%
1972 3863293 -103150 -2.601%
1973 3723411 -139882 -3.621%
1974 3622649 -100762 -2.706%
1975 3544099 -78550 -2.168%
1976 3493326 -50773 -1.433%
1977 3439130 -54196 -1.551%
1978 3382783 -56347 -1.638%
1979 3330075 -52708 -1.558%
1980 3272518 -52708 -1.583%
1981 3211025 -57557 -1.759%
1982 3166050 -61493 -1.915%
1983 3131228 -44975 -1.421%
1984 3100951 -34822 -1.112%
1985 3057226 -30277 -0.976%
1986 3016488 -43725 -1.430%
1987 2976937 -40738 -1.351%
1988 2938830 -39551 -1.329%
1989 2895706 -38107 -1.297%
1990 2856045 -43124 -1.489%
1991 2815045 -39661 -1.389%
1992 2780406 -75639 -2.687%
1993 2742192 -38214 -1.374%
1994 2698262 -43930 -1.602%
1995 2665276 -32986 -1.222%
1996 2631466 -33810 -1.269%
1997 2609191 -22275 -0.846%
1998 2587674 -21517 -0.825%
1999 2560201 -27473 -1.062%
2000 2525330 -34871 -1.362%
2001 2493781 -31549 -1.249%
2002 2451969 -41812 -1.677%
2003 2405311 -46658 -1.903%
2004 2362136 -43175 -1.795%
2005 2313662 -48474 -2.052%
2006 2267118 -46544 -2.012%
2007 2209546 -57572 -2.539%
2008 2140165 -69381 -3.140%
2009 2077138 -63027 -2.945%
2010 2016091 -61047 -2.939%
2011 1952287 -63804 -3.165%
2012 1849496 -102791 -5.265%
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Appendix B

December 2013 Gallup Survey on Church Attendance (Gallup, 2014)

The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 15

References

Gallup. (2014). December 2013 Survey on Church Attendance. Retrieved from

http://www.gallup.com/poll/166613/four-report-attending-church-last-week.aspx

Jackson, Toya R. May 29, 2014. Stated Clerk Releases PC(USA) 2013 Statistics. Presbyterian

News Services. Retrieved from http://www.pcusa.org/news/2014/5/29/stated-clerk-

releases-pcusa-2013-statistics/

Kincaid, Paula R. June 4, 2013. 2012 Statistics Show Dramatic Decrease in PCUSA

Membership, Congregations. The Layman Online. Retrieved from

http://www.layman.org/2012-statistics-show-dramatic-decrease-in-pcusa-membership-

congregations/

Kincaid, Paula R. June 4, 2014. PCUSA Membership Declines Again in 2013. The Layman

Online. Retrieved from http://www.layman.org/pcusa-membership-declines-2013/

Lupfer, Jacob. (2014, June 21). Is the PCUSA *that* Liberal? Yes. [Web log comment].

Retrieved from http://www.jacoblupfer.com/blog/2014/6/21/is-the-pcusa-that-liberal-yes

Parsons, Gradye. April 17, 2013. The Changing Church. [PowerPoint slides]. Retrieved from

http://vimeo.com/64906127

PewResearch Religion & Public Life Project. (2014). Religious Landscape Survey. Retrieved

from http://religions.pewforum.org/reports#

Presbyterian Mission Agency Research Services. (2014). Comparative Statistics. Retrieved from

https://www.presbyterianmission.org/ministries/research/statistics-reports-and-articles/
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