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    FERRY GUNAWAN
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    The document discusses the gap between predicted and actual building energy performance, noting that predictions often fail to account for real-world factors like construction techniques, user behavior, and external variables. Simplified building energy models and regulations do not adequately consider the context of uncontrolled variables and insufficient attention to details that impact heat loss and air leakage. The performance gap arises as much from failures to address context in predictions as from issues in construction.

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    The document discusses the gap between predicted and actual building energy performance, noting that predictions often fail to account for real-world factors like construction techniques, user behavior, and external variables. Simplified building energy models and regulations do not adequately consider the context of uncontrolled variables and insufficient attention to details that impact heat loss and air leakage. The performance gap arises as much from failures to address context in predictions as from issues in construction.

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    8 views17 pages

    1020 Doug King2 PDF

    Uploaded by

    FERRY GUNAWAN
    The document discusses the gap between predicted and actual building energy performance, noting that predictions often fail to account for real-world factors like construction techniques, user behavior, and external variables. Simplified building energy models and regulations do not adequately consider the context of uncontrolled variables and insufficient attention to details that impact heat loss and air leakage. The performance gap arises as much from failures to address context in predictions as from issues in construction.

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    of 17

    Building Physics for

    Architects
    or
    Architecture for
    Building Physicists?

    Doug King
    FREng HonFRIBA www.dougking.co.uk
    Prediction vs Reality

    Jones Lang LaSalle, A Tale of Two Buildings, 2012


    Complex Systems
    Simplistic Predictions
    Building Regulations
    Simplified Building
    Energy Model
    Uncontrolled Variables
    Insufficient Attention
    Unreliable Application
    Elm Tree Mews:
    Air leakage 7m3/h.m2 not
    3m3/h.m2 as specified.
    Fabric heat-loss 54% higher
    than predicted.
    However, the Calculations:
    –  underestimated the amount of
    timber framing;
    –  failed to account for thermal
    bridging;
    –  failed to account for cavity
    party walls.

    Bell et al, Lessons from Elm Tree Mews, 2010


    Undefined Responsibility
    Predictable Failures
    The Performance Gap is as much a failure
    of Prediction as of Construction.
    The Prediction Gap arises when analysts
    fail to address the Context:
    –  External Factors
    –  Construction Techniques
    –  Likely User Behaviour
    Context
    Context
    Context
    Context
    Context

    “It is not enough to presume that the


    information from ‘smart metering’ will
    encourage people to reduce their
    energy consumption any more than a
    car speedometer will reduce
    speeding”

    Stevenson & Leaman, Evaluating housing performance in relation to human behaviour, 2010
    People use Energy
    not Buildings

    Perception Gap
    not
    Performance Gap

    Data is Meaningless
    without Context

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