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Higashino Yukitoshi Ichimoku
Higashino Yukitoshi Ichimoku
1050
Feb. 5
1000 1044.50 July 1
950 1010.91
Leading span 2
900
2009/6
2009/7
2009/8
2009/9
2010/1
2010/2
2010/3
2010/4
2010/5
2010/6
2010/7
2010/8
2010/9
2010/9
2009/10
2009/11
2009/12
2
Ideal Top and Bottom Pattern in a Candlestick Chart
c 26 d
a 26 b
The ideal period from a low price “a” to “b” and from a
high price “c” to “d” is within 26 days.
Why?
3
Bottom Pattern Shifting from Fall to Rise
Stock price
Within 26 days from the
Ⅰ
○ expected low "a," the price goes
above “a” to “b” before turning
upwards.
a 26 b
Within 26 days from the
× expected low "a," the price goes
below "a" to "b" before turning
Ⅱ upwards.
a 26
4
Ceiling Pattern for Shifting from Rise to Fall
c 26 d
The price goes to lower “d” than
○ the expected high "c" within 26
Ⅰ
days and then goes down.
d
c 26 The price goes to the higher “d”
Ⅱ × than the expected high "c" within
26 days and then goes down.
d
c 26 The price does not exceed the
△ expected high "c" and goes down
after hitting "d" but in a period of
Ⅲ over 26 days from "c."
5
Important Points in Base line and Lagging Span
6
What is the “Base Line”?
DAX and base line (daily chart: March 2010 to August 2010)
6600
April 26 26 days
6400 6341.52
6200
6000
5800
July 5 Base line = (highest + lowest in the past 26 days)/2
On the following day, the same calculation is
5809.37
conducted by including the prices of the new day
5600 May 25 but excluding the prices of the oldest day in the base
5607.68 line calculation period.
* “26” used here is the important basic value in the concept of the kinko hyo (candlestick chart).
5400
2010/3
2010/3
2010/4
2010/5
2010/6
2010/7
2010/8
2010/9
2010/10
7
What is the “Lagging Span”?
SX5E and lagging span (daily chart: May 2009 to August 2010)
3200 Jan. 11
Downturn
Downturn April 16
Upturn 3044.37 3027.14
3000 Aug. 5
2849.45
2800
Nov. 3
2600
2693.80 Feb. 8
2617.77
2400 Upturn May 25
2448.10
2200 A line connecting daily values in the past 26 days including today’s closing
* “26” used here is the important basic value in the concept of the kinko hyo (candlestick chart).
2000
2009/10
2009/11
2009/12
2010/10
2009/5
2009/6
2009/7
2009/8
2009/9
2010/1
2010/2
2010/3
2010/3
2010/4
2010/5
2010/6
2010/7
2010/8
2010/9
8
What the “base line” means in the border line.
・Base line: (highest in 26 days + lowest in 26 days) ÷2
When the price makes an upturn
Base line
Stock price
Base line
When a dip to "b" is strong relative to the
expected low "a," the leveling period of
the base line tends to be extended. In that
period, if the stock price does not go back
Ⅰ up and exceed the high, the high of the
base line during the calculation period
becomes lower, thereby causing the base
line to drop again.
a 26 b
10
What the “lagging span” means in the border line.
・Lagging span: current day’s daily closing price projected into the past by 26 days
Stock price When the price makes an upturn
within 26 days from the expected low
Ⅰ ○ "a" after hitting "b," then the lagging
span exceeds the stock price. (upturn
Lagging span
or buy signal).
a 26 b
When the price hits "b," which is
lower than the expected low "a"
within 26 days from "a," then the
Ⅱ × lagging span remains below the stock
price. (continued downturn or sell
26 signal).
a b When the price does not go down
below the expected low "a" but takes
Ⅲ △ an upturn after hitting "b" in a period
of over 26 days from "a," the lagging
span is highly likely to go down below
a b the stock price again. (downturn after
26 upturn, sell signal).
11
The softer the downtrend, the stronger the market (lagging span). Why is that?
Stock price
Lagging span
a 26 b
12
Basic Pattern for the Border Line
・ The border line is composed of the ideal patterns of the lagging line
and the base line.
△
An ideal case is that the
line does not go down
below the base line and
△ makes an upturn in
26 about 26 days from the
second lowest bottom.
Stock price
Lagging span a 26 b
c An ideal case is that
Base line 26 d the line does not go
26 up above the base line
but drops again about
▽ 26 days from the
second highest peak.
13
The Strong Border Line Pattern and the Temporal Loss Cut
・ The value goes above or falls below the recovery high or the immediate low within 26 days.
△ ▽
Stock price △
▽ Loss cutting due to the fall of the base line
Lagging span
26
Base line a 26 b △ Loss cutting due to the rise of the base line
c 26 d
26 △
▽
▽
▽
The base line continues to fall,
and the stock price shows a 26
strong down trend.
14
E Calculation after the Border Line (Setting of the Target)
3E 800
26
1000
=
=50
= 950
700
750 =
E = 900
650
E =
850 =50
= 600
26
800 3E
A rise from the second lowest bottom or a drop from the second highest
peak is often accompanied by a gap.
Double of the increment or decrement of the initial move becomes an
equilibrium point.
15
Equilibrium Point is the Arrangement of the Lateral Axis and Vertical Axis.
・ Basic values
Equilibrium point (important
=
76 change day)
(9, 17, 26, 33, 42, 51, 65, 76, = 65
83, 97, 101, 129…) 42
=
=
Stock price
= No. of days
26
・ Equivalent ② 53+29-1 168 ④
values ③ 29+88-1
=
116 ③
=
81
④ 53+29+88-2 ②
Equilibrium point (important
29 = 53 ① change day)
88 53 =
Stock price
=
168 (53+29+88-2) No. of days
26
16
Time Theory (Concept of Equivalent Value)
=
I=I I =V I=N
V =I V =V V =N
N =I N =V N =N
17
Itochu Corp. (8001, daily chart)
January 2003 to November 2003
65 64
52 351
348 347
39
39
26 △
39 △
●
Low within 26 days
26
18
Nomura Holdings, Inc. (8604、daily chart)
November 2002 to September 2003
89 90
1803
1800
179
179
179
26
△
179
●
26
19
Marubeni Corp. (8002、daily chart)
26
High within 26 days March 2008 to March 2009
●
102
102
102
102
102
102
102
260
274 129
20
AAPL UW (daily chart、Feb. 2008 to April 2009)
($) 48 48
200 May 14, 2008 February 2008 to April 2009
192.24 ●
180
19.73
160 19.73
152.78 152.91
140 19.73
80 19.73
73.86 Jan. 20, 2009
173 78.20
60
08/10/17
08/11/14
08/12/15
09/1/14
09/2/12
09/3/13
09/4/10
09/4/30
08/2/1
08/3/3
08/4/1
08/4/29
08/5/28
08/6/25
08/7/24
08/8/21
08/9/19
21
Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713、 daily chart )
150(08.3.24) 151 1626
1632
45 46
270
77
270
1079 1095
1092
270
270
22
Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713、 daily chart )
May 2010 to September 2010
26
26
26
23
NTT DOCOMO(9437、 daily chart )
October 2009 to August 2010
26 26
26
26
24
Deutsche Bank ( daily chart )
70
€
October 2008 to September 2010
2009.10.15 2010.4.15
60.55
60 58.37 58.29
2009.7.27
2009.6.5 52.60
8.6 49.62
50 49.78
8.6
40
8.6
30
8.6
8.6
20
●
2009.1.21 95 189
15.38
10
09/5
09/6
09/8
09/9
10/1
10/3
10/4
10/6
10/7
10/8
09/10
09/12
10/10
08/10
08/11
08/12
09/2
09/3
25
SAP( daily chart )
€ 2007.9.21
43
42.08 August 2007 to Match 2008
●
41 1.97
39 1.97
37 1.97
35
1.97
33
1.97
31 1.97
1.97
29
28.29 2008.1.22
83
28.31
27
07/10
07/10
07/11
07/11
07/12
07/12
07/8
07/8
07/8
07/9
07/9
08/1
08/1
08/2
08/2
08/3
08/3
26
Nomura Holdings, Inc. (8604、daily chart)
March 2010 to September 2010
26
▽
26
27
Mizuho Financial Group(8411、daily chart )
March 2010 to September 2010
26
▽
26
28
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