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brands. 4. Leveraging on the Tata Group’s strengths. 5. Sale of non-core assets and monetisation of
the balance sheet.
Amit Agarwal
We have valued IHCL at 21x FY21E EV/EBITDA and arrived at a target price of Rs195, which implies
an upside of 32% from the current market price. Research Analyst
Cyclical upturn in the industry led to improvement in the occupancy rate: Industry experts are of the amit.agarwal@nirmalbang.com
opinion that the demand-supply scenario is changing favorably for the hotel industry, with overall supply +91-22-6273 8033
expected to post a CAGR of 4% (FY18-FY22E). Demand is expected to post a CAGR of 6% (FY18-
FY22E). The changing supply-demand mix led to an increase in the overall occupancy rate from 57% in Key Data
FY13 to 68% in FY18 and is expected to rise further.
Pan-India strategy focused across different segments: IHCL is focused across all verticals ranging from Current Shares O/S (man) 1,189.3
5- star to 3-star, implying that it caters to both domestic and foreign customers. The company currently has Mkt Cap (Rsbn/US$bn) 176.2/2.6
hotels spread across four brands which include: 1. Taj 2. Selections. 3. Vivanta. 4. Ginger. As of February
2019, IHCL had 17,741 rooms through 148 hotels spread across India and abroad. Approximately 85% of 52 Wk H / L (Rs) 156/109
the rooms are in India. Further, 27% of total hotel rooms are under management contracts. Changing Daily Vol. (3M NSE Avg.) 1,557,692
attitude and rising penchant to travel amid rising salaries is expected to maintain strong growth in demand.
Strong cost control measures and high operating leverage leads to rising EBITDA margin: Our
analysis on per room basis shows that operating expenses posted a five-year (FY13-18) CAGR of 0.1%. Share holding (%) 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19
Increase in number of rooms together with strong cost control led to five-year EBITDA (FY13-FY18) CAGR Promoters 39.1 39.1 39.1
of 4.5%. EBITDA margin increased from 14% in FY13 to 16% in FY18. We expect the EBITDA margin to
rise to 23% in FY21E and expect EBITDA to post a three-year CAGR (FY18-FY21E) of 23% aided further Institutions 40.5 41.8 42.2
by the rise in Revpar. Non-Institutions 20.4 19.1 18.7
Healthy balance sheet with negative working capital management: IHCL has improved its balance
sheet in the past three years with the decline in its net debt-to-equity ratio from 2x in FY15 to 0.5x in FY18. One Year Indexed Stock Performance
It also has negative working capital. With the planned strategy as given above and improvement in industry
fundamentals, we expect the net debt-to-equity ratio to decline to 0.4x in FY21E. We expect the rising 130
Earnings to post 94% CAGR (FY18-FY21E): We expect a sharp increase in earnings driven primarily by 80
the cyclical upswing in the industry, leading to a rise in RevPar aided by a sharp increase in total room Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18
INDIAN HOTELS CO
Nov-18 Jan-19
Nifty 50
Mar-19
inventory. The combined impact of strong revenue growth and cost control is expected to lead to strong
earnings growth.
We assign Buy rating to IHCL with a target price of Rs195: Our target price of Rs195 is based on 21x Price Performance (%)
FY21E EV/EBITDA, which is supported by EBITDA CAGR of 23% over FY18-FY21E. Our valuation is
driven by the cyclical upswing in the hotel sector with improvement in RevPar, and increase in the number 1M 6M 1 Yr
of rooms driving higher revenues. Higher revenues, together with a relatively muted increase in costs and Indian Hotels 4.2 18.1 16.2
high operational leverage, are expected to lead to strong growth in EBITDA. Our optimism is further
supported by a healthy balance sheet and negative working capital. Nifty Index 4.4 2.7 13.6
Source: Bloomberg
Y/E March (Rsmn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Revenues 40,103 41,036 43,624 48,325 53,926
YoY (%) (0.3) 2.3 6.3 10.8 11.6
EBITDA 6,096 6,703 7,540 9,417 12,528
EBITDA Margin (%) 15.2 16.3 17.3 19.5 23.2
PAT (832) 632 1,656 2,694 4,736
YoY (%) NA NA 161.9 62.6 75.8
EPS (Rs) (0.84) 0.53 1.39 2.26 3.98
RoE (%) (2.5) 2.4 3.1 4.3 6.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 32.0 27.2 20.0 16.6 13.7
P/E (x) NA 174.5 130.5 90.3 56.5
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Institutional Equities
Investment summary
We initiate coverage on IHCL with a Buy rating. Our optimism on the stock is driven by the following factors:
Cyclical upswing in hotel industry to drive room revenues: The hotel industry is showing clear signs of
revival and we believe the cyclical upswing is based on a favorable demand-supply balance. The weakness
in the sector was caused by demand-supply imbalance in FY07-FY17. During the period, while demand
registered a CAGR of 12.4%, supply witnessed a CAGR of 13%, creating a demand-supply mismatch. The
room occupancy rate declined to 57% in FY13 from 69% in FY07. The imbalance has now started reversing.
The occupancy rate increased to 65% in FY17. If history is an indicator, then in the previous upcycle
(FY03-FY08), ARR posted a CAGR of 20% and the occupancy rate registered a CAGR of 4%.
Company’s strategy as enunciated in ‘Aspirations 2022’ focuses on improving EBITDA margin to 25%
by FY23 from 17% in FY18: The main pillars of the strategy are: 1. Shift to an asset-light model by
increasing room inventory through management contracts. 2. Cost optimisation. 3. Manage brands more
effectively. 4. Leverage of the parent Tata group’s strengths and explore synergies within the group. 5.
Monetisation through sale of lease back of hotels, sale of non-core land and strategic partnership.
Strategy of cost control amid rising revenues to drive EBITDA CAGR of 23% over FY18-FY21E: We
expect IHCL revenues to post a CAGR of 9% over FY18-FY21E. However, with strong cost control, we
expect operating costs to post a relatively lower CAGR of 6.5%. This will help drive EBITDA CAGR of 23%
over the same period. Our per room analysis of the income statement clearly indicates that the company has
strong cost control measures.
Healthy balance sheet supported by comfortable net debt-to-equity ratio, negative working capital:
IHCL has a healthy balance sheet with a net debt-to-equity of ratio of 0.5x in FY18. We expect this ratio to
decline to 0.4x by FY21E. We also note that the rising operating income is expected to improve the interest
coverage ratio from 1.4x in FY18 to 3.8x in FY21E. Further, the company also has negative working capital
which helped reduce the stress on the balance sheet.
Strong operating cash flow to fund capex for expansion: IHCL had a volatile cash flow in the past few
years. In the recent past, in FY15, the company had a negative operating cash flow while the highest cash
flow was in FY16. We expect the earnings growth and negative working capital to help increase operating
cash flow CAGR (FY18-FY21E) to 30%.
Attractive valuation, given the strong anticipated growth: Our target price of Rs195 on IHCL is based on
21x FY21E EV/EBITDA which is supported by EBITDA CAGR of 23% over FY18-FY21E. Our valuation is
driven by the cyclical upswing in the hotel sector with improvement in RevPar, and increase in the number of
rooms driving higher revenues. Higher revenues, together with relatively muted increase in costs and high
operational leverage, are expected to lead to strong growth in EBITDA. Our optimism is supported by a
healthy balance sheet and negative working capital. We further derive comfort from the expected
improvement in balance sheet health and the net debt-to-equity ratio likely to decline from 0.5x in FY18 to
0.4x in FY21E.
400
300 252
223 234
187 204
200 164 174
100
-
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2028F
E-Estimated, F-Forecast
Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research, www.ibef.org, World Travel & Tourism Council's (WTTC's) Economic Impact
2018
2017*
2000
2002
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2015
2001
2003
2005
2012
2014
2016
Domestic Tourist Visits (DTV) Annual Growth %
* Provisional figures for 2017
Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research, India Tourism Statistics At a Glance 2018
35%
34%
34%
33%
32%
35%
31%
29%
27%
30%
26%
24%
25%
20%
15%
9%
10%
7%
6%
5%
5%
0%
2001 2011 2021 2031
0-14 Years 15-34 35-64 64+
51%
50%
42%
40%
30%
17%
20%
13%
13%
12%
12%
12%
10%
10%
10%
5%
4%
0%
Metropolitan Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Rural
2016 2018
60%
50%
40%
32%
30% 26%
20%
10%
0%
Nuclear Family Other Family Structures
2016 2025
Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research, BCG
7) Increase in foreign tourist arrival (FTA) supported by e-visa facility to boost room
occupancy rate
Foreign tourist arrivals in India registered a 7.9% CAGR over 2000-18 and stood at 10.55mn in
2018. With the introduction of e-visa facility on 27 November 2014, FTA through e-visa facility
registered a CAGR of 179% over 2014-18 and stood at ~2.4mn in 2018. The e-visa facility is
available in three sub-categories - e-tourist visa, e-business visa and e-medical visa - and is
extended to nationals of 163 countries. The duration of e-visa has also been increased from 30
days to 60 days. Under the e-visa, a foreign national has to submit an application for a visit in India,
after which the applicant gets an authorisation via e-mail. The foreign national has to just show the
authorisation printout to the immigration authorities in India on arrival. The ease with which a
foreign national can get entry into India via the e-visa route is expected to boost FTA. Foreign
tourist spending in 2018 stood at Rs19,48,920mn and posted a 15% CAGR over 2000-17. We
believe the value of foreign tourist spending will increase with the rise in FTA.
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Foreign Tourist Arrival in India Annual Growth %
Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research, www.ibef.org, Ministry of Tourism
2.00
1.70
1.50
1.08
1.00
0.45
0.50
0.04
-
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
E-Visa Arrivals
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
2000
2001
2003
2004
2005
2007
2008
2010
2011
2013
2014
2016
2017
2002
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
3.0
2.4 2.3
1.7 1.8
2.0 1.6 1.4
1.1
1.0
-
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
M - Visa FTA
Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research, Press Information Bureau
9) India ranks sixth based on the number of heritage sites and it has 36 heritage sites which
draw domestic and foreign travelers
Italy has 53 heritage sites, as per UNESCO, taking the number one position. India, with 36 heritage
sites, takes the number 6 position, just after Germany. In 2016, the archaeological site at Nalanda,
Bihar, archaeological work of Le Corburier, Chandigarh, and Khangchendzonga National Park,
Sikkim, were added. In 2017, UNESCO added the historic city of Ahmedabad as a heritage site. The
number of visitors to centrally-protected and ticketed monuments stood at 43mn, posting a CAGR of
22% over 2002-17. We have seen a few years of decline in visitors, especially foreign visitors, over
the past few years but domestic visitor growth remains strong and registered a decline only in 2007,
2013 and 2016. The Adopt a Heritage Scheme of the Ministry of Tourism was launched on 27
September 2017 by the President of India. The ministry has invited private sector companies, public
sector companies, and corporate individuals to help in conservation and development of heritage
sites. Seven short-listed companies have been given Letter of Intent for 14 monuments. We believe
that India has a lot of heritage value and we expect the steps taken by the Ministry of Tourism to
conserve and develop heritage sites to fuel domestic and foreign visitor growth over the next few
years.
United States
Russia
United Kingdom
Mexico
India
Germany
France
Spain
China
Italy
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Mixed World Heritage Sites Natural World Heritage Sites Cultural World Heritage Sites
50
40
30
20
10
-
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
10) UDAN (Ude Desh Ka Aam Nagrik) scheme to boost domestic travel
In 2012, low-cost carriers (LCCs) accounted for 50.6% seats in domestic market while full-service
airlines accounted for 49.4%. However, in 2017, LCCs accounted for 67.2% of total seats in the
domestic market. UDAN scheme was launched on 27 April 2017 with the objective of improving
connectivity with the operation and revival of airports in underserved and unserved areas and
introducing viability gap funding for RCS (Regional Connectivity Scheme) flights to fill the gap
between the cost of airline operations and expected revenues on unserved/underserved routes.
UDAN scheme provides a dual benefit for the hotel industry by improving connectivity to bottom-tier
cities from where expansion of middle-income hotels is expected and increasing the affordability for
domestic travelers to visit bottom-tier cities. The rise in LCCs and implementation of the UDAN
scheme will provide significant support to domestic travel growth, thereby creating demand for
middle-income hotels.
2003/04
2004/05
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2001/02
2005/06
2009/10
2013/14
2017/18
Five Star Deluxe Five Star Four Star
During the 2002-03 and 2007-08 peaks, overall ARR peaked in 2007-08 at Rs7,989, and ARR for five-star
deluxe and four-star hotels peaked at Rs11,200 and Rs5,722, respectively, in 2007-08. However, post 2007-
08, during the downcycle, ARR bottomed out at Rs5,527 in 2013-14 and at Rs8,727 and Rs4,474 in case of
five-star deluxe and four-star hotels, respectively, in 2014-15.
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
2006/07
2007/08
2014/15
2015/16
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2016/17
2017/18
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
-
2021E/22E
2008/09
2007/08
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
Total Room Additions
Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research, Hotelivate
25
20
15
10
-
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Mar-11
Mar-16
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E
Indian Hotels Lemon Tree EIH
The chart below shows that the occupancy rate of IHCL is below some of its listed peers. With cyclical
upturn in the hotel sector, we expect IHCL to improve the occupancy rate.
Exhibit 20: Occupancy rate – Peers vs. Indian Hotels
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Indian Hotels (%) (standalone) 64 65 66 67
Lemon Tree Hotels (%) 68 75 76 75
Chalet Hotels (%) NA 58 66 72
Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research, respective companies
Food, restaurant and banquet hall * 17,360 16,695 16,487 16,762 17,663 19,529 21,655
Growth (%) 5 (4) (1) 2 5 11 11
As a % of room revenues 88 88 88 88 88 88 88
Shop rentals 409 447 398 409 430 451 474
Growth (%) 10 9 (11) 3 5 5 5
As a % of room revenues 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Membership fees 600 710 952 858 901 946 993
Growth (%) 9 18 34 (10) 5 5 5
As a % of room revenues 3 4 5 5 4 4 4
Other operating income 2,351 1,792 1,750 1,909 2,004 2,104 2,210
Growth (%) (7) (24) (2) 9 5 5 5
As a % of room revenues 12 9 9 10 10 9 9
*Note: It is assumed that ‘Room Rentals’ and revenues from ‘Food, Restaurants and Banquet Halls’ is in the proportion of 53: 47.
Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research, Company
Goal: EBITDA margin expected to increase from 17% in FY18 to 25% in FY23E.
The main drivers of the strategy as mentioned in the document are:
1. Increase in room inventory with a rising emphasis on an asset-light model, implying that a large
number of rooms to be added to the inventory will be on management contract.
2. Cost optimisation to help in reducing costs- e.g. in procurement, utilities, payroll.
3. Capitalising on the strengths of the parent Tata group- exploring synergies across different Tata
group- owned companies.
4. Monetisation- implying sale and leaseback, sale of non-core assets, light land etc, strategic
partnerships.
5. Better manage brands with a multi-segment brand strategy- brand strategy not only limited to
selling rooms across brands but also restaurant, spas, khazana and salons.
4,000
2,000
-
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
(2,000)
(4,000)
(6,000)
Net Profit of Indian Hotels
Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research, Company
30,000 36,500
20,000 34,500
10,000 32,500
- 30,500
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Revenues of Indian Hotels Operating Costs of Indian Hotels
Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research, Company Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research, Company
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
RevPar
Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research, Company
Occupancy rate
We note that in the past three years the occupancy rate of IHCL (standalone) rose steadily from 64% in FY15
to 67% in FY18. Any addition of new rooms in the wake of addition of new hotels takes about two to three
years to stabilize and has a lower occupancy rate compared to other hotels that have been running. IHCL
has positively shown rising occupancy rate, despite the constant increase in the number of rooms. The
overall addition of rooms is given in the chart below.
In our model, we have assumed that occupancy rate for the consolidated IHCL is the same as that of the
standalone entity.
Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research, Company Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research, Company
Rising ARR
Average room rate or ARR has been rising steadily as the chart below indicates. The primary reasons for the
growth in ARR have been stated earlier. They include rising domestic tourism, changing demand -supply
balance in favor of hotels and a changing client mix.
ARR rose from Rs9,562/room in FY15 to Rs10,722/room in FY18. We expect continued growth in ARR
during FY19E-FY21E, given the premium category brand image of IHCL, increase in foreign and domestic
tourism and the rise in per capita income.
Exhibit 32: Standalone ARR
(Rs/night)
15,000 16%
14%
14,000
12%
10%
13,000
8%
12,000 6%
4%
11,000
2%
0%
10,000
-2%
9,000 -4%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Standalone ARR % change
Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research, Company
13,796
13,500 13,686
13,326 13,369
13,000
12,969 13,000
12,749
12,500
12,541
12,367
12,000
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Number of Owned Rooms
Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research, Company
Management contracts
Currently, management contracts account for 25% of the total rooms whereas owned and leased rooms
represent the balance 75%. Going forward, the management aims at focusing its expansion plan through an
asset-light model. The management plans to add 2,000 rooms in the next three years and increase the
number of rooms by 11%. Out of the total expected room addition, 76% rooms shall be added through
management contracts, taking the management contracts proportion to 34% of total rooms and the balance
shall be owned rooms. The management’s strategy is to successfully increase IHCL’s presence and take
advantage of the upcycle without taking excess leverage.
5,000 4,824
4,467
4,500 4,321
4,109
4,000
3,463 3,504
3,500
3,000
2,464
2,500
2,000
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Number of Managed Rooms
Revenues from management contracts posted a 14% CAGR over FY13-FY18. With the company’s focus on
following an asset-light model, it will boost revenues from management contracts at a 25% CAGR over
FY18-FY21E. Revenues from management contracts accounted for 5% of total revenues in FY18 and are
expected to increase to 7% by FY21E.
500 5%
- 0%
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Management Contract Revenues Growth (%)
12,000 19%
17% 20%
10,000 16%
15%
14% 14% 14%
8,000 15%
12%
12,528
6,000 10%
9,417
7,540
4,000
6,703
6,096
5,596
5,522
5,376
4,886
5%
2,000
- 0%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
EBDITA EBDITA Margins
4,000
5%
2,000
0%
-
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19E
FY20E
FY21E
-5%
(2,000)
-10%
(4,000)
(6,000) -15%
Net Profit Net Profit Margins
We expect depreciation to increase to Rs 3,944mn in FY21E, posting a 9% CAGR over FY18-FY21E. Rise
in depreciation is because of addition of 2,000 rooms by FY21E. Fixed assets (excluding CWIP) stood at
Rs63,37mn in FY18, which are expected to rise to Rs 78,873mn by FY21E.
3,500 3,354
3,300
3,081
3,100 2,994
2,884 2,913
2,848
2,900 3,012
2,700
2,500
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Depreciation
We expect interest costs to decline to Rs2,230mn in FY21E. The decrease in interest costs is because of
the fall in debt from Rs24,274mn in FY18 to Rs 20,274mn in FY21E. The fall in debt is on account of
increasing profitability due to shift in the management’s focus to an asset-light business model, cost control,
increase in RevPar and number of rooms.
Exhibit 40: Interest costs
(Rsmn)
4,000
3,756
3,500
3,000 3,238
2,500
2,690
2,000 2,362 2,428
2,230
1,500 1,707 1,756
1,685
1,000
500
-
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Interest Costs
The net debt-to-equity ratio is expected to improve from 0.52x in FY18 to 0.37x in FY21E. The fall in this
ratio is because of the decrease in gross debt outstanding from Rs24,274mn in FY18 to Rs20,274mn in
FY21E. The increase in the number of total rooms from 17,793 in FY18 to 19,793 in FY21E, rise in ARR and
improved occupancy rate will support cash generation.
Exhibit 42: Net debt-to-equity ratio
(x)
2.50
2.05
2.00
1.68
1.54
1.50 1.25
1.21
1.00
0.52
0.44 0.43 0.37
0.50
-
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Net Debt to Equity
6,000 5,616
5,090
5,000
3,960
4,000 3,388
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Operating Cash Flow
Note: Operating cash flow does not include changes in current investments in mutual funds
Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research, Company
IHCL has been generating negative free cash flow over FY13-FY18. Free cash flow is expected to improve
from (Rs92mn) in FY18 to Rs3,369mn in FY21E, driven by the sharp rise in earnings and negative working
capital. The sharp rise in free cash flow in 2017 is because of proceeds worth Rs8132mn received from the
sale of IHMS (Boston) LLC by United Overseas Holding Inc. (UOH), a wholly-owned subsidiary of IHCL.
We expect a capital expenditure of ~Rs11,000mn over FY19-FY21E, primarily representing expansion in the
number of rooms. The capital expenditure will be funded through internal accruals.
Exhibit 45: Free cash flow
(Rsmn)
18,000
15,000
12,000
9,000
6,000
3,000
-
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
(3,000) Free Cash Flow
10%
5%
0%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
When we take a closer look into RoE by conducting a DuPont analysis, we can effectively conclude that the
negative to low single-digit RoE during FY13-FY18 was on account of a negative PAT margin magnified by
higher financial leverage. Historical PAT margin ranged between 2% to (10%) and financial leverage was
between 2.24x to 4.4x. The asset turnover has shown a steady growth from 40% in FY13 to 44% in FY18.
Going forward, we expect the net profit margin to touch 9% by FY21E, driven by the rise in ARR, room
addition and a low-cost structure. The earnings growth will get magnified as the financial leverage ratio
touches 2.17x by FY21E. Asset turnover is expected to increase from 44% in FY18 to 51% by FY21E
because of aggressive room addition through the management contract route.
Exhibit 47: DuPont analysis
60% 5.0
50% 4.5
4.0
40%
3.5
30% 3.0
20% 2.5
10% 2.0
1.5
0%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E 1.0
-10% 0.5
-20% Net Profit Margin (%) Asset Turnover (%) Leverage (x) -
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company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report.
NBEPL or its associates / analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public offering of securities of the
company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. NBEPL or its associates have not received any compensation or other
benefits from the company covered by Analyst or third party in connection with the research report. Analyst has not served as an
officer, director or employee of Subject Company and NBEPL / analyst has not been engaged in market making activity of the subject
company.
Analyst Certification: I, Amit Agarwal, research analyst and the author of this report, hereby certify that the views expressed in this
research report accurately reflects my personal views about the subject securities, issuers, products, sectors or industries. It is also
certified that no part of the compensation of the analyst was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific
recommendations or views in this research. The analyst is principally responsible for the preparation of this research report and has
taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendation.
Team Details:
Name Email Id Direct Line
Rahul Arora CEO rahul.arora@nirmalbang.com -
Dealing
Ravi Jagtiani Dealing Desk ravi.jagtiani@nirmalbang.com +91 22 6273 8230, +91 22 6636 8833
Pradeep Kasat Dealing Desk pradeep.kasat@nirmalbang.com +91 22 6273 8100/8101, +91 22 6636 8831
Michael Pillai Dealing Desk michael.pillai@nirmalbang.com +91 22 6273 8102/8103, +91 22 6636 8830