THE UNIVERSITY OF DANANG

DANANG UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY

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PROBABILITY AND STOCHASTIC PROCESSES

Topic: Analyzing call block probability in a WCDMA network

MS student : PHẠM QUỐC CƯỜNG

Class : K35DTCH
Instructor : Assoc. Prof. PhD. NGUYỄN LÊ HÙNG

DaNang, June - 2018

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I. Overview
Nowadays, thousand of mobile subscribers are denied access to mobile
network due to insufficient spectrum allocated for telecom operators. Because the
spectrum is a rare resource that cannot easily be created for fulfilling all of the
demands, it is therefore neccessary that the available spectrum needs to be optimally
utilized to serve many purposes for which it is meant for. In order to make the
maximum use of the available spectrum, a Wideband Code Division Multiple Access
(WCDMA) technique which allows data to be represented by code are used. This
technique tries to reduce some of the impairments that are associated with other
access techniques such as Frequency Division Multiple Access and Time Division
Multiple Access techniques in efficient service delivery. Statistical analysis is
investigated in this essay to determine the call blocking probability in a WCDMA
wireless system. This will enable the proper analysis of the network to be carried out
so as to provide methods that could be deployed to reduce the number of call
blockings in wireless networks.
II. Call blocking in cellular network
Because the number of mobile subscribers continues to increase exponentially
within the cellular system, the existing channels are gradually used up. Using up the
channel in this case means that the available channels will no longer provide the
users with communication links. When the number of channels is limited with respect
to the number of users accessing the network, the solution is that a good number of
users will not be giving access into the network. Hence at that time any user that tries
to connect to the network will be rejected or blocked. When the call is blocked it is
crucial that the user has to try again as a fresh trial. However, after several trials, the
user is not still given access to network, then, user finally stops and waits for another
chance.
Call blockings in cellular networks can be attributed to insufficient number of
channels in the system with relative to the number of users trying to access the
network simultaneously. Hence efficient channel utilization should be the key focus

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of every telecom operator to contain the number of subscribers trying to access the
network for their satisfaction on the services being provided.
III. Modelling call blocking in WCMDA network
The probability of a new call is blocked given by the equation:
TavNc
Nc !
Pb  k
(1)
N c Tav
 k 0 k !
where N c is the number of speech channels per cell, k is the number of calls in

progress and Tav is the average offered traffic in units of users. This is called Erlang B

formula which was evaluated for different values of channels in ascending order
using matlab. The corresponding values of call blocking probabilities are tabulated
against the number of channels as shown in Table 1.
SNR Blocking probability Number of channels
1 0.8902 100
2 0.8422 200
3 0.8276 300
4 0.8081 1000
5 0.8054 1500
Table 1. Call blocking probability versus number of channels
Many network planners desire to predict the call behaviors of users, and
derive the physical infrastructure that guarantees an acceptable grade of service
(GoS). Several factors influence this design process such as:
 The number and duration of calls on the time of the day. A busy hour (usually
around 17:00 pm and 20.00 pm) can now be defined as the hour that
determines the required optimum network capacity .
 The spatial distribution of users is time variant: while urban areas usually
experience a lot of activity during the day time, suburbans and entertainment
districts experience more traffic during the night time.
 Changing user habits are also related to the offering of new service and new
pricing structures

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 Based on statistical knowledge of user habits, a system can be designed with
certain probability that allows a given number of users per cell to make a call. If,
through a statistical fluke, all users want make a call simultaneously, some of the calls
will be blocked.
To describe the call handling capacity of a server system, we can define a
hypothetical network with U potential users and is able to handle C simultaneous
users (capacity of C channels). If U  C, then the system is called a non blocking
system; this implies that all calls can be handled at the same time. Else if U>C, then
the system is referred to as a blocking system. For a blocking system, there are two
factors that are used to define the traffic model. Firstly, it is the manner in which a
blocked call is handled: Lost Call delayed (LCD) or Lost Call Cleared (LCC). The second
traffic element model is whether the number of users is assumed infinite or finite.
Infinite sources are analytically easier to deal with and are reasonable when number
of sources is 5 to 10 times the capacity.
Using LCC and Infinite Source model, we will derive the probability of blocking
at state k as below. The system to consider has the following parameters:
-Number of trunked channels = C
-Average mean holding time = H
-If we take traffic intensity to be A, then A=H (offered traffic)
We define two statistical components of the trunks:
-Arrival Times: A Poisson distribution is assumed for the arrival of the calls.
Therefore from 0 to t seconds, the probability of n calls arriving is:

  t  0
   t 0 
e  t   t 
n n
e
Pn  t  0   Pn  t   (2)
n! n!
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-Service Times: The mean call duration is H and so   is the mean
H
number of calls serviced in a unit of time. Here we assume an exponential
distribution of the service time. Therefore the probability that the duration S k of the

K th call will be less than an arbitrary call duration S is:

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 Pr Sk  S  1  e S (3)

This gives a probability density function:

p  Sk   eSk (4)

We use the property of Markov chains i.e. the transition from the present
state i to the next state i+1 depends only on the state i. The trunk operation is a
continuous process but may be analyzed in small discrete small time intervals  . If
N z is the number of calls in the system at time z , then N z  N  z  , where N is a

random process representing the number of occupied channel s at discrete times.

Using equation (2) and the small interval of time interval  , then the
probability of k is arrivals in  second is:
e     
k

Pr  k   (5)
k!
 defines a transition probability to use in the Markov chain i.e. probability of
having k channels in use is equivalent to the probability of having  k  1 channels in

use multiplied by transition probability  .

 Pk 1  Pk (6)
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But  is the time equivalent to
k

Therefore using this in equation (6) gives:

 Pk 1  k  Pk (7)
 P0
For k  1 , P1 


Equation (6) under steady state condition i.e. a Markov chain over a long
period of time becomes:
 Pk 1  k  Pk (8)

For various states up to state k, equation (8) becomes

k
 1
Pk  P0   (9)
   k!

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 
k C
and P0    Pk k !  1   Pi (10)
 i 1

In equation (9), the probability of blocking for C channels is:

C
 1
PC  P0   (11)
   C!
Substituting equation (10) into (11) yields
C
 1
   C!
PC    k (12)
C
 1
  
k 0    k !


But traffic intensity is A   H  , substituting this into equation (12) gives


probability of Blocking for C servers is

1
AC
PC  C C ! (13)
1

k 0
Ak
k!

IV. Simulations and comments

In the scope of this essay, the probability of call blocking derived from above
equation has been simulated by Matlab’s tools.

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 Fig. 1. Probability of blocking versus traffic intensity graph simulated by Matlab
Comments:
From the graph a desired probability of blocking (GoS) can be used against the
given number of servers C to determine the maximum traffic that can be carried.
This simulated data can be used by telecom operators to determine the
channels required to carry a specific amount of maximum traffic at a given GoS.

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 REFERENCES
[1] Felisa J Vázquez-Abad, Lachlan L. H. Andrew, David Everitt, “Estimation of Blocking
Probabilities in Cellular Networks with Dynamic Channel Assignment”, ACM
Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation, January 2002
[2] Anuj Kumar, Shilpi Srivastav, Alok Agarwal, Narendra Kumar, "Analysis of Blocking
Probability in a GSM Based Cellular Network System", International Journal of
Engineering Trends and Technology – Volume 3 – Issue 5 - 2012
[3] Ira Jacobs, Timothy T. Pratt, John K. Shaw, Rogers H. Stolen & Anbo Wang ,
“Optimizing the handover call blocking probability in cellular networks with high
speed moving terminals”, IEEE Communications Letters (Volume: 6, Issue: 10, Oct.
2002).
[4] Ohaneme Cletus, Ezeagwu Christopher and Nnebe Scholastica U., “Modelling and
Analysis of Call Blocking Probability in an Established CDMA Wireless Network”,
International Journal of Computer Networks and Communications Security, July 2016.

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 ANNEX
Matlab code:

Contact 
Email: cuongphamquoc@outlook.com
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