Proceedings of the Eleventh (2001) International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference

Stavanger, Norway, June 17-22, 2001

Copyright © 2001 by The International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers
ISBN 1-880653-51-6(Set); ISBN 1-880653-55-9 (VoL IV); ISSN 1098-6189 (SeO

Probability Distributions of Mechanical Damage for Offshore Marine Platforms

D. De Le6n and E. Heredia-Zavoni

Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo
Mexico D.F., Mexico

ABSTRACT
Marine platforms for oil exploitation may experience several
types and degrees of damage during their operation. Usually,
their assessment is made under design conditions; neither the
occurrence time nor the magnitude and location of damages on
the platform components are taken into account to realistically
represent the time variation of the platform's structural
reliability. In this paper, probability distributions are proposed
for typical drilling platforms in order to describe mechanical
damage (denting and out of straightness) sustained during their
lifetime. The number, size and time variation of mechanical
damage are analyzed based on data from inspection reports of
platforms in the Bay of Campeche.
KEY WORDS: Mechanical damage, denting, out of straightness,
probability distribution of damage, offshore drilling platforms,
inspection data.
obtained over a period of 16 years is available at the Instituto
Mexicano del Petr61eo (IMP, 1999). Figure t shows pie diagrams for
• the distribution of different types of damage in production,
headquarter and drilling plattbrms in the Bay of Campeche. It is seen
that denting is the most frequent type of mechanical damage,
followed by engraving and the so-called hot damage, i.e. residual
stresses caused by welding procedures during fabrication or
transportation. Most of denting damage occurs in the 2 "a bay vertical
braces of the jacket.
Engraving Denting
29% 47%

INTRODUCTION
The safety assessment of damaged platforms (mechanical damage
produced by boat impacts and thlling objects) has received some
attention lately (Aviguetero, T. and Bea, R., 1996; Loh, J. T., 1993; Hot da
Ricles, J. M., Lamport, W. P. and Gillum, T. E. 1992; Taby, J. and 24%
Moan, T. 1985). Among different kinds of mechanical damage,
denting is the one that has probably been studied more extensively.
This is partly because of its relevance on the structure's residual (a) Production plattbrms
strength and because its effect on the structural properties can be
modeled more easily than the effects of other kinds of damage.
Combined
In order to assess plattbrm reliability over time, a systematic 2% Denting
tbrmulation is required that incorporates actual damage patterns and ] 43%
Engraving / ,
uncertainty about their intensity, location and occurrence.
30%
Information available from inspection reports may be used to
characterize damage patterns statistically. In this study, we look at
such data and analyze it in order to determine probability
distributions for denting damage and out of straightness. The long-
term objective of this work is to use such probability density
Hot d a m a g e ~
functions to assess the reliability of damaged offshore platforms. 25%

STATISTICAL ANALYSES
A large database from inspection reports of more than 200 platforms (b) Headquarter plattbrms

511
 Combined Permanent
Telecom.
5% 1Fue'2S2 -S4
Denting and f- Denting Production
out of
straightness~
~
t
5%
/
/ - 40% 5% m ss,on .
Temporary
Pr°n°o2'°n Link
10%
Engraving"
27% -- ~
Drilling/ Headquaders
45% 9%
~ H o t damage
25%

Fig. 3 Distribution of number of mechanical damage for various

(c) Drilling platforms
Fig 1. Distribution of damage for: (a) production; (b) headquarter;
and (c) drilling platforms in the Bay of Campeche
services of platforms.
mechanical damage. Data from the available IMP inspection reports
for a 16- year period was processed and analyzed in order to
determine models for the probability distributions of denting and out
of straightness. The data is obtained from visual inspection of the
state of geometrical damage of braces. No repairs are performed tbr
damages located below sea level and for denting and out of
straightness. Given that the source of damage is related to operations
on the platforms they are considered to be independent from
meteorological or oceanographic loading conditions.

I~'lUromd a t Oxrtir~ The frequency of denting and out of straightness damages in braces,
of st~0"lm~ q 3.26010 as a function of time t normalized by the design lifetime, Ts, was
225"% 1 -- t-~es
t J ~ c m % obtained for the selected drilling platforms. From such frequencies,
the mean number of damages /.t and mean plus minus one standard
22.88% deviation, cJ, were estimated. The variation of these quantities as a
Der~n0 function of t/Ts, are shown in Figures 4 and 5 tor denting and out of
~ 43.19% straightness, respectively. For both denting and out of straightness,
the mean number increases with the exposure time. The longer the
exposure, the greater the numbei- of denting and out of straightness
H~ ~ r e m damages that can be expected. The mean number of damages
2&80% increases from 6 at 20% of lifetime T.~to 14 at 80% of T~, in the case
of denting. Out of straightness, as stated before occurs less
frequently. The mean number of members with out of straightness is
three a 85% of design lifetime T~. Notice that in the case of denting,
Fig. 2 Distribution of types of damage for structures 16-20 years old. whereas the mean number increases with time, the standard deviation
tends to decrease.
A pie diagram of the distribution of damages (889 in total) for
platforms of various services and 16 to 20 years old is shown in
Figure 2. It is seen that denting is the most frequent type of damage
followed by hot damage. These two account for 70% of damages.
Although out of straightness has a small percentage of occurrence, it ~, 15
is included in this study because of the important effect that it may E
have on the residual strength of tubular members (Loh, J. T., 1993) -~ 10
and, subsequently, on the platform reliability. Combined damage in "6
Figure 2 corresponds to the combination o f any other two types of ~5
¢,j
damage illustrated in the diagram.
E
z v

Figure 3 shows the distribution of mechanical damage for platforms

QCO Q~ Q44 Q~ Q'K) Q ~ Q~ QSO
of various services. The data shows that drilling platforms have the
greatest incidence of mechanical damage. The frequency of damage
in drilling platforms is three times as high as that of temporal
production platforms and five times as high as that of headquarter-
platforms. Due to the intense and heavy work carried during
operations on and around drilling platforms, denting and out of Fig. 4 g -o, g and la+o for denting damage
straightness damage is likely to occur on several structural members.
Based on these results, three drilling-platforms 20 years old were
selected to study the time variation of the number and size of

512
 E4

Z2 ..-u- i.t
.15
.~I 10

~' Q45 0.5 0.57 Q6 0,7 Q75 Q85

t/1"$

0.13"1 a m 0.(35 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15

Fig. 5 IX, B - o and tx + ~ tbr out of straightness damage dd/D

The magnitude of damage was also analyzed and its frequency was
obtained tbr several damage intensities. The intensity of denting
damage was defined as the ratio of denting depth to tube diameter,
dd/D, and for out of straightness, as the ratio of maximum deflection
to tube length, AlL. In a previous study at IMP (1999), the magnitude (b)
of denting damage, without regard of its time variation, was found to
be exponentially distributed as shown in Figure 6, with density
function given by 2O
' I-"'lObsew.'
o
.fa (a) = 42 exp(-42a) .... where ...... a = dd I D (l)
: 15 \ -~--I.N

"~
"l'." 10
• Exp..

o>4O
\ r--l(~
4'J
m 5
"6
ee

0
?
0.01 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15
ddlD
10
m

QO1 QCP QG8 Q04 QC5 QOBQO'70.08 QC8 Q1 (c)

Fig. 7 Frequency of denting damage for: (a) t/T~ = 0.44; (b) t/T s =
0.52 and t/T~ = 0.72
Fig. 6 Frequency o f d d / D at any time

In this study, we brought into the analysis the time variation of

damage intensity. Figure 7 shows plots of denting for three
2O normalized times t with respect to the platform design lifetime, Ts.
I'-'--I CYoserv. The figure also shows fittings of the lognormal (LN), uniform and
15 -t-IN exponential distributions to the data.
Unif.
O"
• Export. A Z2 goodness of fit test was performed in order to discriminate
lO
between the LN, exponential and uniform distribution to model
denting intensity for several times within the platform's life. In
5 I Table 1; Z2c = Z(fe-fo)2/fo where fe = expected frequency for
n- assumed distribution and fo = observed frequency. It is seen that the
O
shortest deviations (best fit) in Table 1 from the observed damages
0.01 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 correspond to the uniform distribution model for all times. Thus, it
dd/D is proposed to use a uniform distribution for damage intensity
accounting properly for the fact that the upper bound in the domain
of the distribution may vary with time given that the damage
intensity increases with exposure time.
(a)

513
 Table 1. Z2 calculated for LN, exponential and uniform fits to
observed denting damages
o~ 150
e.
o F-"q C I ~ . t/Ts = 0.44 0.44 0.44
o" 100 dd/D Z2LN Z2expon. Z2unif.
WJ i - m - U. fo.~J
0
0.01 13.01 0.02 2.96
0.03 24.66 20.13 2.22
0
n- 0
0.05 0.00 2.32 2.96
0.07 8.33 12 8.33
0.005
0.09 3.21 3.56 0.27
0.11 1.45 1.07 2.22
T. = 50.67 39.12 18.98

(a) t/Ts = 0.52 0.52 0.52

dd/D Z2LN Z2 e x p o n . X2unif.
0.01 12.03 0.25 4.00
0.03 15.53 12.5 0.64
0.05 0.00 1.84 4.00
>,
o 150 0.07 8.33 11 6.25
C
F - q Observ. 0.09 1.64 2~42 0.89
lOO 0.11 0.44 0.43 0.64
---I!- Un form
0 0.13 2 4.5 6.25
.~_ 50
0.15 2.46 1.91 0.64
~ 0 T i T, = 30.42 34.59 19.31

0.005 0.015 t/Ts = 0.72 0.72 0.72

AlL dd / D g 2 LN ;(2 e x p o n . 22 unif.
0.01 11.31 0.70 3.12
0.03 15.6 14.94 1.04
0.05 0.17 1.21 3.12
0.07 5.95 0.95 1.04
(b) 0.09 1.00 1.85 0.52
0.11 0.22 0.25 1.04
0.13 2.00 4.1 6.25
>,
0.15 2.13 1.57 1.04
15o
O Z = 38.37 25.57 17.19
I-'-"l Observ.
g lOO
•-!1-- Uniform I
_- ! -_
._> 50 CONCLUSIONS
The paper has focused on the probabilistic description of denting and
~ 0 I ,
out of straightness. For the purpose of damage and reliability
0.005 0.015 prediction, it is important to consider the specific service and to take
into account the particular time for which the prediction is
A/L
intended. From the results of the study it is observed that, as
expected, the number of denting locations as well as that of elements
with out of straightness increases with time. This trend agrees with
the experience that, without repairs, as the time of exposure to
(c) impacts becomes longer (as a consequence of age), the number of
Fig. 8 Frequency of out of straightness damage for: (a) fiT, = 0.44; mechanical damages increases. Probability distributions have been
(b) fiT, = 0.52 and t/T, = 0.72 proposed for the intensity of mechanical damages as observed in
typical offshore drilling platforms of the Bay of Campeche. The time
For out of straightness, data is scarce. Figure 8 shows that the variation of damage intensity and number has been considered.
uniform distribution fits the data well. One must notice that the upper Damage intensity was found to be best fit to the data by a unitbrm
bound in the uniform distributions can increase with time. Thus, distribution with a domain that increases with time. The next stage in
sizes of out of straightness could be expected to have a uniform this research project is to assess the effect of denting damage and out
distribution where the upper bound value for the intensity varies of straightness on the platform's structural reliability. The results will
increasing with time. be used to complement the existing criteria for platlorm's assessment
and also to provide recommendations tbr inspection, repair and
maintenance of marine platforms in the Bay of Campeche.

514
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The inspection reports database for platforms in the Bay of
Campeche, has been provided by the Civil Engineering Inspection
and Maintenance group at IMP. Special thanks are due to PEMEX
/'or allowing the use of information about mechanical damages in
marine platforms.

REFERENCES
Aviguetero, T. and Bea, R. (1996) "ULSLEA: Parametric studies of
the Effects of Local Damage and Repairs on Global Lateral Capacity
of a Typical Offshore Platform". Rep. from the Marine Tech. and
Managem. Group, Dept. of Civil and Environ. Eng., University of
California, Berkeley.
Instituto Mexicano del Petr61eo (1999) "Filosoffa de Inspecci6n y
Mantenimiento de Plataformas Marinas fijas localizadas en la Sonda
de Campeche', Reporte Trcnico para PEMEX. Mrxico, D. F.
Loh, J. T. (1993) "Ultimate Strength of Dented Tubular Steel
Members", Proc. 3rd. Int. Offshore and Polar Eng. Conf., Singapore,
ISOPE, Vol. 4, pp. 134-145.
Ricles, J. M., Lamport, W. P. and Gillum, T. E. (1992) "Residual
Strength of Damaged Offshore Tubular Bracing", Proc. Offshore
Tech. Conf., Houston, TX., OTC 6938.
Taby, J., and Moan, T. (1985) "Collapse and Residual Strength of
Damaged Tubular Members", 4 th. Int. Conf. on Behavior of Offshore
Struct., pp. 395-408.

515