CHAPTER 24

CHARACTERISTICS OF DISTRIBUTION LOADS

Author:
H. L. Willis

A T&D system exists to deliver power to electric 2. Power Systems Exist to Satisfy Customers, Not Loads
consumers in response to their demand for electric energy.
The traditional manner of representing customer
This demand for electricity, in the form of appliances, lighting
requirements for power system engineering has been as
devices, and equipment that use electric power, creates electric
aggregate electric loads assigned to nodes for electrical design.
load, the electrical burden that the T&D system must satisfy.
For example, customer needs in an area of a city may be
In a de-regulated power industry, quality of service - basically
estimated as having a maximum of 45 MW. That value is
quality in meeting the customers’ needs - is paramount.
then assigned to a particular bus in engineering studies aimed
Quality begins with a detailed understanding of the customer’s
at assuring that the required level of power delivery can be
demand requirements, and includes the design of a system to
provided by the system.
meet those needs. This chapter discusses electric load and
Traditionally, the engineering methods used in those design
presents several important elements of its behavior that bear on
studies have been system-based: performance and criteria are
T&D system engineering aimed at satisfying those
evaluated against the power system itself, not against the
requirements as economically as possible.
customers’ needs. Equipment loading limits, single-
contingency backup criteria, and voltage drop/power factor
I. ELECTRICAL LOADS
guidelines defined on the distribution system and even at the
1. Consumers Purchase Electricity for End Use Application customer meter point, all view electrical performance from the
system perspective, and do not directly address customer
Electricity is always purchased by the consumer as an
needs.
intermediate step towards some final, non-electrical product.
Such engineering methods, while necessary to tailor many
No one wants electric energy itself, they want the products it
aspects of T&D design, are not sufficient to completely
can provide: a cool home in summer, a warm one in winter, hot
address the maximization of customer value. Power systems
water on demand, cold beverages in the refrigerator, and 48
exist to satisfy customers, not loads. Understanding the
inches of dazzling color with stereo commentary during
specific needs of the customers — how much quality they
Monday-night football. Different types of consumers purchase
require in power delivery as well as the quantity of power they
electricity for different reasons, and have different
need — can improve the value provided by the power system.
requirements for the amount and quality of the power they buy,
The “two Qs” — quantity and quality — both need to be
but all purchase electricity as a way to provide the end-
considered in designing and operating a power system to
products they want. These various products are called end-
provide maximum customer value.
uses, and they span a wide range, as shown in Table 1.

A: System Peak - 3,492 MW B: Residential - 4.2 kW/customer

TABLE I—CUSTOMER CLASSES ANDEND-USE CATEGORIES

Fig. l—Left: peak electric demand for a power system in the

Some end-uses are satisfied only by electric power
(televisions, computers). In others, electricity dominates in
usage over other alternatives (there are gasoline-powered
refrigerators, and natural gas can be used for lighting). But for
many end-uses, such as water heating, home heating, cooking,
and clothes drying in the residential sector, and pulp heating
and tank pressurization in the industrial sector, electricity is but
one of several possible, competing energy sources.
southern United States, broken out by customer class. Right:
within the residential class, which accounts for 58% of the system
peak, per capita usage at peak conditions falls into the end-use
categories as shown.
End-use analysis of electric load — the study of the basic
causes and behavior of electric demand by customer type and
end-use category — is generally regarded as the most effective
way to study consumer requirements from the standpoints of
quantity, quality, and schedule. In any one household,
Chapter 24 Characteristics of Distribution Loads 785

business, or factory, the various individual end-use loads understanding of how customer loads interact with the power
operate simultaneously, forming the composite load, as system. Most critical, however, is simply the act of keeping in
depicted in Fig. IB. The T&D system sees this composite load mind that the “electric loads” used in T&D engineering studies
through the meter as a single load. In aggregate, the loads of represent the energy needs of people using electricity. The
all customers produce the system load (Fig. 1A), with each best power system is one that satisfies their needs as
type or class of customer contributing a portion to the overall economically as possible.
system demand.
The amount of electric load created on a power system
II. CUSTOMER ELECTRIC LOAD BEHAVIOR
within any end-use category, for example residential lighting,
depends on a number of factors, beginning with the basic need 3. Connected Load
for lighting. People or businesses who need more lighting will
The connected load is the sum of the full load (nameplate)
tend to buy more electricity for that purpose. Also important
continuous ratings of all electrical devices in the composite
are the types of appliances used to convert electricity to the
load system. A typical household in a developed country
end-use. Consumers using incandescent lighting rather than
might have a 4,000-watt water heater, a l,OOO-watt water-well
fluorescent lighting will use appreciably more electric power
motor, a 5,000-watt central air conditioner, a 6,500-watt space
for otherwise similar end-uses.
heater, thirty lighting fixtures or lamps with an average load of
The schedule of demand for most end-uses varies as a
100 watts each, a 4,000 watt cooking range, a 3,500 watt
function of time. In most households, demand for lighting is
clothes washer/dryer, a 500 watt refrigerator, and 2,500 watts
lowest during mid-day and highest in mid-evening, after dusk
of miscellaneous home entertainment, personal grooming, and
but before most of the residents have gone to bed. The daily
other small appliances, for a total of 30,000 connected watts of
schedule of lighting demand usually varies slightly throughout
load. Whether all or any of these are operating at any one time
the year, too, due to seasonal changes in the daily cycle of
depends on a number of factors, including the demand for their
sunrise and sunset. Some end-uses are only seasonal. Demand
various end-use products. It is rare that all the connected load
for space heating occurs only during cold weather. Peak
in a system or at any one customer’s location would be
demand for heating occurs during particularly cold periods,
operational at one time (for example, air conditioning and
usually in early morning, or early evening, when household
heating would not be running simultaneously).
activity is at its peak.
The quality of the electric power supplied is more critical to
4. Electric Load Curves
some end-uses than to others. A power system that can
provide the quantity of power required may still not satisfy the Use of the products created by electric power - light, heat,
consumers, either because it does not provide sufficient hot water, images on the TV, and so forth, varies as a function
availability of power (reliability), or because it does not
of time of day, day of week, and season of year. As a result,
provide sufficient voltage regulation or transient voltage
the electric load varies. A load curve plots electric
performance (surges, sags). Reliability and voltage regulation
consumption as a function of time. Fig. 2 shows seasonal peak
needs vary from one end-use to another, as will be discussed
day load curves for residential loads from two electric systems
later in this chapter, and depends mostly on the value of the
in the United States. In one system, demand is highest in
end-use to the customer.
summer, during early evening, when a combination of air
The value that consumers place on any particular end-use is
conditioning demand and residential activity is at a peak. In
a function of its importance to their quality of life, or to the
the other, peak demand occurs on winter mornings, when a
productivity of their factory or commercial business. An
electric heating demand is highest.
important (but for many power engineers, counter-intuitive)
concept is that end-use value is not of a function of the cost of
the electric power. For example, most personal computers and
workstations use only 2-3# worth of power per hour, yet users
typically report that an hour’s interruption due to lack of power
has a cost of a dollar or more.
Cost is a major factor in T&D design. In fact, cost is often a
consumer’s primary concern, for which they are willing to
accept major compromises in quality, and quantity, or service.
The challenge facing T&D engineers is to meet consumer
needs for both “Qs” - quantity and quality - at the lowest
possible cost. Building a system that delivers higher reliability Fig. 2—Typical summer (solid line) and winter (shaded line) peak
levels than customers need is exactly the same as building one day load curves for a metropolitan power system in the southern
that can deliver much more power than they need. US (left) and a rural system in New England (right).
Knowledge of the customer needs for quantity and schedule
of power delivery, and of the value they place on reliability, Load curve shape - when peak load occurs and how load
voltage regulation, surge and sag protection, and other factors, varies as a function of time - depends both on the connected
are important factors in modern power factor design, as is an load (appliances) and the activitv and lifestvles of the
786 Characteristics
consumers in an area. Differences between the electric
demand patterns of otherwise similar types of customer (as in
Fig. 2) occur because of differences in climate, demographics,
appliance preferences, and local economy.
5. Demand
Demand is the average value of load over a period of time
known as the demand interval. Often, demand is measured on
an hourly or quarter-hour basis, but it can be measured on any
interval - seven seconds, one minute, 30 minutes, daily,
monthly, annually. The average value of power, p(t) during
the demand interval is found by dividing the kilowatt-hours
accumulated during the interval by the number of hours in the
interval.
Demand is the average of the load during the interval. The
peak and minimum usage rates during the interval may have
been quite different from this average (Fig. 3). Demand
intervals vary among applications, but commonly used interval
lengths are 5, 15, 30, and 60 minutes.
Peak demand, the value often called “peak load,” in design
studies, is the maximum demand measured over a billing or
measurement period. For example, a period of 365 days
contains 35,040 fifteen-minute demand intervals.
maximum among these 35,040 readings is the peak fifteen-
minute demand. This value is often used as the basis for an
annual demand charge if the readings measure a single
customer’s usage, and as a capacity target in engineering
studies: the maximum amount the system must deliver.
6. Demand Factor
The demandfactor of a system is expressed as the ratio of
maximum demand to the connected load. Normally
demand factor is considerably less than 1.O.
7. Load Factor
Load factor is the ratio of the average demand to the peak
demand during a particular period. Load factor is usually
determined by dividing the total energy (kilowatt hours)
accumulated during the period by the peak demand and the
number of demand intervals in the period, as
LF = Total usage during period
(Peak Demand) x m
where m = number of demand intervals in period
LF = Average Demand
Peak Demand
Load factor gives an indication of the degree to which peak
demand levels were maintained during the period under study.
Load factor is typically calculated on a daily, monthly,
seasonal, or an annual basis.
8. Power Factor
All loads require real power - kilowatts - to perform useful
work such as mechanical rotation or illumination. Reactive
loads also require reactive volt-amperes (VAR) to do a type of
of Distribution Loads Chapter 24
“non-productive work” required for their function, such as
produce the magnetic field inside a transformer or motor,
without which they can not function.
VAR flow on a power system consumes capacity in
conductors, transformers, and other equipment, but provides no
useful “real” work. It is mitigated by the use of capacitors and
other devices, or by changes in the end-use device so that it
consumes fewer VARS (see Chapter 8).
Fig. 3—Demand on an hourly basis (blocks) over a 24 hour period.
Continuous line indicates demand measured on a one-minute
interval basis. Maximum one-minute demand (at 552 PM) is
The about 4% higher than maximum one-hour demand (S-6 PM).
9. Voltage Sensitivity of Loads
The various electrical appliances connected to the power
system exhibit a range of different load vs. voltage
sensitivities. Important characteristics include their response
to transient voltage changes and their steady state load vs.
voltage behavior.
Transient voltage response is difficult to characterize and if
the
important, should be modeled with detailed, and specific, study
of the transient response of the particular loads involved.
Classification of transient load response into categories is
useful in some cases, but no simple generalization works in all
cases.
For “steady state” representation, individual electric loads
are generally designated as falling into one of three categories
depending on how they vary as a function of voltage
Constant impedance loads, for example an incandescent
(1) light or the heating element in an electric water heater,
are a constant impedance, whose resulting load varies
as the square of the voltage.
Constant current loads, including some types of power
(2) supplies, many electroplating systems, and other
industrial processes, are basically constant current
loads. Energy drawn from the system is proportional to
voltage.
Constant power loads, such as some types of electronic
power supplies, and to an approximate degree,
induction motors, vary their load only slightly in
response to changes in voltage.
In each category, reference to a load as “ 1 kW” refers to its
value at 1.O PU voltage. Table 2 shows the value of a 1 kW
load in each category, as a function of voltage.
Chapter 24 Characteristics
TABLE2 — ACTUALLOAD OFA “1 KW LOAD” OFVARIOUSCATECKRIES
AS A FUNCTIONOFTHEPERUNIT SUPPLYVOLTAGE - WATTS
Correct representation of voltage sensitivity can be an
important factor in analysis of power system performance,
particularly on systems that are near permissible limits.
Usually, engineering studies of transmission system are carried
out using representations of the load as constant power. This
works well, because the customer loads are usually
downstream of load-tap changing transformers and voltage
regulators and so are insensitive (in the steady state case) to
changes in the voltages being modeled.
On the distribution system, however, correct representation
of voltage sensitivity is critical for accurate analysis of voltage
drop and equipment loads. As can be determined from study of
Table 2, the difference between constant power and constant
impedance “1 kW” loads, at 8% voltage drop (typical of the
maximum primary feeder voltage drop permitted on many
systems), is 15%. Thus, the incorrect categorization of load
voltage sensitivity could lead to a significant over or under
estimation of voltage drop and loading on a feeder.
Tests to determine voltage sensitivity on a feeder circuit or
low-side bus basis, by varying LTC or voltage regulator tap
position at the substation, are recommended to determine exact
behavior. In the absence of specific information,
representation as a constant current (load is proportional to
voltage) is recommended. Within the United States, the
following rule-of-thumb works somewhat better
Summer peaking residential and commercial feeders as a
split of 67% constant power and 33% constant
impedance.
Winter peaking residential and commercial feeders as a
split of 40% constant power and 60% constant
impedance.
Industrial feeders as constant power feeders
In developing countries, rural loads are best represented as
25% constant power and 75% constant impedance and those in
urban areas as an even split of constant power and impedance.
Load flow and similar iterative engineering computations
are faster and more stable in convergence if loads are
represented as constant power than as constant impedance or
current (fewer factors change value from iteration to iteration).
In some cases, when a load flow commutation will not
of Distribution Loads 787
converge, changing input data to represent all loads as constant
power will promote convergence to an approximate solution.
Analytical studies and digital programs can be simplified
by deleting the constant current category and using only
constant power and constant impedance type loads. Constant
current load behavior (the rarest of the three types) can be
represented over the range .88 to 1.12 PU voltage, with less
than .75% error, if modeled as a mixture of 49.64% constant
power, and 50.35% constant impedance load. The column
labeled “Ratio” in Table 2 shows this mix of load types, with
the right-most column giving the percentage error in
representation of an actual constant current load.
10. Characterizing Customers by Class
Usually, electric consumers are grouped into classes of
broadly similar demand behavior. A class is any subset of
customers whose distinction as a separate group helps identify
or track load behavior in a way that improves the effectiveness
of the analysis being performed. Electric utilities most often
distinguish customers by rate class (pricing category).
Customer studies (load research) often make additional
distinctions based on demographics, income, or SIC (standard
industrial classification) code.
Regardless, usually all customers in a class have similar
daily load curve shapes and per-customer peak demands,
because they employ similar types of appliances, have similar
needs and schedules, and respond in a similar fashion to
weather and changes in season. Table 3 and Fig. 4 illustrate
how customer class values vary in one power system.
TABLE 3—PEAK HOURLY DEMAND VALUES FOR CUSTOMERSIN A
UTILITYSYSTEMINNEW ENGLAND.1992
11. Customer Class Peaks Occur at Different Times
Often, the various classes do not demand their peak energy
at the same time, as shown in Fig. 4. As a result, the system
peak load may be substantially less than the sum of the
individual customer class loads (Fig.5). This is called inter-
class diversity, or inter-class coincidence, of load. A class’s
or customer’s load at time of system peak is its contribution to
system peak, and the ratio of its peak contribution to its own
peak load is its peak responsibility factor. Table 4 shows the
peak load and responsibility factors of various classes in a
utility system in the central United States.
788
Fig. 4—Customer classes typically display different daily load
curves. Shown here are the class summer peak-day loads from a
metropolitan utility system in the southern United States.
Fig. 5—Peak system load in this metropolitan system in Europe
occurs when a combination of both residential and commercial-
industrial load is at a maximum.
TABLE4—SYSTEMPEAKRESPONSIFHLITV
UTILITYSYSTEMIN THECENTRALUNITEDSTATES, 1992
Characteristics of Distribution Loads Chapter 24
III. CONVERSION OF ELECTRICITY TO END USE
12. Appliances Convert Electricity to End Uses
Each end-use, such as lighting, is satisfied through the
application of appliances or devices that convert electricity into
the desired end product. For lighting, a wide range of
illumination devices can be used, from incandescent bulbs to
fluorescent tubes, to sodium vapor and high-pressure mono-
chromatic gas-discharge tubes and lasers. Each uses electric
power to produce visible light. Each has advantages with
respect to the other illuminating devices that gives it an appeal
in some situations. But regardless of type or advantages, all of
these devices require electric power to function, and create an
electric load when activated.
The term load, in this context, refers to the electric power
requirement of a device that is connected to and draws energy
from the T&D system to accomplish some purpose (opening a
garage door) or to convert that power to some other form of
energy (light, heat). Loads are usually rated by the level of
power they require, measured in units of volt-amperes, or
watts. Large loads are measured in kilowatts (thousands of
watts) or megawatts (millions of watts). Power ratings of loads
and T&D equipment refer to the device at a specific nominal
voltage. For example, an incandescent light bulb might be
rated 100 watts at 115 volts. If provided more or less voltage,
its load would be different from 100 watts. Loads can be
single-phase or multi-phase, and they can have real (resistive
only) or complex impedance (reactance), too.
The electric load in any one end-use category depends not
only on the number of customers and their aggregate demand
for the end-use, but also on the types of devices they are using
to convert electricity to that end-use. For example, lighting
load will be higher if most customers are using incandescent
lighting to meet their needs, than if they are using only
fluorescent lighting. Similarly, if a large percentage of
customers use only resistive space heating instead of more
efficient heat pumps, electric demand will be greater, even if
the end-use demand is the same. Power quality needs also are
function of appliance type. For example, variable-speed
chillers are more sensitive to voltage sags than traditional
constant-speed building cooling systems.
BY CUSTOMERCLASS FORA
Therefore, detailed analysis of electric load in a utility
system generally proceeds into subcategories within each
customer class’s end-use categories, with the subcategories
characterized by appliance type, as shown in Fig. 6. The boxes
indicate load curve models, the ellipses are multipliers
corresponding to the number of customers or the percentage of
customers in a class that have a certain appliance (e.g., thermal
storage heating). Only part of the model is shown. Dotted
lines indicate links to portions not illustrated.
In detailed load studies, behavior of load in each category is
analyzed by use of temporal curves, plotting demand for the
end-use (e.g., gallons of hot water, BTU of heating required) or
the electrical load, or cost of service interruption, as a function
of time. Information on the percentage of customers
employing each type of appliance, their end-use demand
schedules, and the electrical and efficiency characteristics of
the appliances, comprises the end use model.
Chapter 24 Characteristics
Fig. 6—Structure of an “end-use analysis” based on customer, end-
use, and appliance subcategory load curves.
13. Appliance Output Is Controlled by Varying Duty Cycle
Only a minority of electrical devices vary their load as a
function of the end-use demand placed upon them. For
example, the motor drive in a variable speed heat pump will
control its RPM (and hence electric load) to correspond to the
pumping requirements of the system, on a moment to moment
basis. However, such appliances are a rarity. The majority of
loads connected to a power system vary their output as a
function of time by changing their duty cycle. Duty cycle is
the portion of time the device spends operating during any
period.
Fig 7—Electric load (bottom) and internal water temperature (top)
of a 4,000 watt, 50-gallon storage electric water heater as a
function of time.
of Distribution Loads 789
For example, most storage water heaters function in a
simple manner to keep the water they provide at a constant
temperature, regardless of demand, as illustrated in Fig. 7. A
thermostat is set at the desired temperature, for example
172.5”F. The thermostat has a “deadband,” a narrow range of
temperatures on each side of the setting, within which the
thermostat does nothing. A typical deadband might be 5°F -
for example from 170°F to 175°F when the thermostat is set to
172.5”F. Whenever the temperature drops below the
deadband’s lower limit, the thermostat activates a relay (or
electric circuit) that turns on the heating element. The element
is left in operation until it raises the water temperature above
the upper limit of the thermostat’s deadband (175”F), at which
point the thermostat activates the relay to shut off the heater.
The water temperature rises and falls slightly as the unit cycles
on and off, as shown, but the electric load cycles completely
from “all on” to “all off,” as the device tries to maintain a
constant temperature.
The 4,000-watt water heater, as illustrated in Fig. 7, creates
a load of 4,000 watts whenever it is energized by its
thermostat. Otherwise it creates no load at all. Over a period
of 24 hours, it will vary its duty cycle in response to demand
for hot water. When water heating demand is lightest, the
water heater may operate only a few minutes in each hour. But
when demand is highest, for example in the evening when
dishwashing, clothes washing, bathing, and other activities are
at a peak, it may operate continuously for an hour or more, as
shown in Fig. 8.
Fig. 8—The water heater’s load profile over a typical day.
A large portion of the electric appliances in most electric
systems, often a majority of the electric demand, operates in
this manner. The consumer does not directly control the
appliance’s on-off operation. Instead, the consumers sets a
desired end-use measure (temperature, air pressure) on a
controlling device (a thermostat, a pressure switch), and this
device varies the appliance’s duty cycle in response to end-use
demand. In the residential class, air conditioners, space
heaters, refrigerators, freezers, water heaters, irons, and ovens
fall into this category. In the industrial class, process heaters,
air and water pressurization systems, and many fluid handling
systems use this method of control. Fig. 8 shows the resulting
daily load curve for a water heater. It cycles on and off,
operating for longer times during periods of high demand, and
only briefly when there is no demand and it must only make
up for thermal losses. In all cases, however, when the water
heater is operating its load is the same - 4 kW.
790 Characteristics of Distribution Loads Chapter 24

The daily water heater load curve in Fig. 10 looks nothing

like the daily water heater load curve in Fig. 8. In Fig. 10, load
varies smoothly from moment to moment, between a minimum
of .53 kW and a maximum of 1.1 kW, displaying none of the
blocky, on-off cycling shown in Fig. 8. Neither Fig. 10 nor
Fig. 8 is incorrect. Each is accurate, but only within its own
context. Their difference is attributable to intra-class
coincidence of load.
Fig. 11 illustrates the relationship between the two water
heater load curves. On the top row, load curves A, and B show
the load curves for two electric water heaters in neighboring
Fig. 9—Daily cycle of THI (temperature-humidity-illumination homes on the same day. Curve C shows the curve for the
index) and air conditioner operation. The air conditioner’s water heater in B, on another day. All three represent the same
connected load varies slightly as a function of THI. appliance under nearly identical conditions. Timing of the load
blocks varies, but in all cases the load is “all or nothing.”
Fig. 9 shows a slightly more complicated appliance Load curve D shows the combined loads of both
behavior, in which duty cycle and device characteristics both neighboring water heaters (the sum of curves A and B) on
vary. Here, an air conditioner cycles between on and off under February 6, 1994. Even during the peak hour, the average
thermostatic control. As temperature rises throughout the day, water heater operates only a fraction of the time (in the system
demand for cooling increases, and the air conditioner spends a whose average water heater is shown in Fig. 10, exactly
greater portion of its time in the “on” state, until in late 1,100/4,000 of the time, assuming all water heaters are 4,000
afternoon it is operating all but a few minutes in every hour. watts connected load). For this reason, instances when the two
The diagram illustrates a common secondary effect due to AC water heaters operate simultaneously are rare, but this does
unit compressor design. When ambient temperature happen several times each day, for brief periods.
(temperature of the air around the AC radiator) rises, back Curve E shows the curve for five water heaters (the units in
pressure in the compressor increases, forcing the unit’s five neighboring homes, including A and B). With five units,
inductive motor to work harder and creating a slightly higher the likelihood of two or more units operating at any one time is
electrical load. Thus, its connected load varies with increased considerably. However, the likelihood of all five are
temperature, as shown. operating at the same time is quite remote (roughly 1100/4000
raised to the fifth power, or less than .l percent). Curve F
14. Appliance Duty Cycles and Coincidence of Load shows the combined load curve of 50 water heaters (all those
served by one primary-voltage lateral).
Fig. 10 shows the type of load curve widely used
throughout the power industry as representative of a residential
water heater’s daily load curve. This particular load curve was
taken from a comprehensive water heater load survey done in
the 1980s by a utility in the northern United States, prior to
design and implementation of a water-heater load control
program. This curve shown has a maximum value of 1,100
watts during a brief early morning household activity peak, and
a lower, but broader early evening peak.

Fig. 10—A average residential water heater’s coincident demand

curve - l/100,000 of the load resulting from 100,000 water
heaters. Any single water heater has a load curve similar to that
shown in Fig. 8, but its contribution to system load is depicted as
shown here. This curve is also the expectation of any one water Fig. 11—Daily load curves for different sized groups of residential
heater’s load by time of day. water heaters.
-.

Chapter 24
- 1

Characteristics ofP Distribution Loads 791

As an increasingly large number of water heaters is While no single customer within the group depicted in Fig. 12
considered as a group, the erratic, back-and-forth behavior of would have an individual load curve that looked anything like
the individual water heater load curve gradually disappears. Fig. 12B (every customer’s load curve looks something like
The load curve representing a group’s load becomes smoother Fig. 12A), the smooth coincident load curve for the group has
as the size of the group is increased, the peak load per water two legitimate interpretations.
heater drops, and the duration at lengthens. By the time 1,000
I. The curve is an individual customer’s contribution to
water heaters are reached (Fig. 1 IG) the curve shape is quite
system load. On the average, each customer of this
smooth, and peak load is at its coincident value of 1,100
class adds this load to the system. Add ten thousand
watts/unit.
new customers of this type, and the system load curve
Thus, Fig. 10 (same as Fig. 1 lG), while unlike any
will increase by ten thousand times this curve.
individual water heater’s actual load curve, is an accurate
representation of water heater behavior from either of two 2. The curve is the expectation of an individual
perspectives. First, it is a diagram of average contribution to customer's load. Every customer has a load that looks
system load, or coincident load, on a per water heater basis — something like the on-off behavior shown in Fig. 12A,
l/l 00,000 of the load of the 100,000 water heaters in the but each has slightly different on-off times that vary in
system. Second, it is the expectation of a water heater’s load an unpredictable manner from day to day. Fig. 12B
as a function of time. To a certain extent, the exact timing of gives the expectation, the probability-weighed value of
the “on” load blocks in Fig. 7- 9, and Fig. 11 is random from daily load that one could expect from a customer of
day to day. Fig. 10 is a representation of the expected load of this class, selected at random. The fact that the
one water heater, as a function of time; the best estimate, a day expectation is smooth, while actual behavior is erratic,
ahead, of load as a function of time. is a result of the unpredictability of timing in when
Note that energy per water heater (area under the load appliances switch on and off.
curve) is not a function of group size. The energy used per
Commercial and industrial customers exhibit intra-class
water heater is constant in any of the load curves in Fig. 11.
coincident behavior qualitatively similar to that discussed here,
but the shape of their coincidence curves may be (usually is)
15. Coincident Load Behavior in General different than for residential. By contrast, inter-class
Most of the major loads in any home or business behave in coincidence is the difference in timing of peak periods among
a manner similar to the on-off, coincident behavior shown in classes (Fig. 4).
Fig. 7 - 9 and Fig. 11. Refrigerators and freezers, air
conditioners, space heaters, water heaters, and electric ovens in
homes; and pressurizers, water heaters, process and other
finish heaters, and other equipment in industry; all turn on and
off in a performance-regulated duty cycle manner. As a result,
individual household load curves, and many commercial and
industrial site load curves, display the blocky, on-off load
behavior shown in Fig. 12A. As with the water heaters, when
a group of similar loads (homes in this case) is considered as a
single load, the load curve becomes smoother, the peak load
drops, and the minimum load rises. Note that the vertical scale
of all six load profiles shown in Fig. 12 is in “load per
customer” for each group.
The 22 kW non-coincident needle peak demand shown in
Fig. 12A for a single household is high, but not extraordinary
for homes in the southern United States. Load curve A
represents a 2100 square foot residence with 36 kW connected
load (sum of all possible heat pump, water heater, garage door
opener, washer-dryer, other appliance and lighting loads).
While customer characteristics vary from one system to
another, the qualitative curve shape behavior shown in Fig. 12,
as well as the tendancy of load curves to become smoother,
and peak loads lower, as group size is increased, apply to all
power systems.

16. Coincident Curve: Expectation of Non-Coincident Load Fig. 12—Non-coincident (A) and coincident (B) winter peak day
load curves for home in a suburban area of Florida. Curves B
The interpretation of coincident load behavior as the through F show the gradual transformation from non-coincident
expectation of non-coincident load behavior, as explained in to coincident behavior as group size increases. Feeders see load
sub-section 14 (water heater example) is generally applicable. curves similar to B. Every service drop sees a load curve like A.
792 Characteristics of Distribution Loads Chapter 24

17. Importance of Coincidence Assessment in T&D Design 18. Coincidence Factors and Curves

Coincidence behavior of load, as depicted in Fig. 12, is Usually, coincident load behavior is summarized for
important to T&D planning and engineering. Equipment such application to power distribution system engineering by the
as service drops, service lines (LV), and service transformers, coincidence factor, and the coincidence curve. Coincidence
which serve small numbers of customers, must be designed to factor is a measure of how peak load varies as a function of
handle load behavior, including customer needle peaks, of the group size for customers
type depicted in Fig. 12A. Normal service does not require
this equipment to handle these load levels for more than a few C = observed peak for the group
(3)
minutes at a time, a factor that can be considered in I( individual peaks)
determining the load rating of this equipment. By contrast,
Fig. 12 illustrates well that as the number of customers in the
equipment serving large groups of customers sees fully
group increases, the peak load/customer usually drops by a
coincident load curve behavior (Fig. 12B). Peak load per
considerable amount. Coincidence factor, C, can be
customer is lower, but peak duration is much longer.
represented of as a function of the number of customers, n, in a
Usually, in spite of the high needle peak values, the thermal
group
capacity of service drops, service (LV) circuits, and service
transformers can be determined based on coincident peak load C(n) = peak load of a group of n customers (4)
values. The thermal time constants for most conductor, cable, n x (average individual peak load)
and transformers are much longer than the duration of any where n is the number of customers in the group,
needle peak. As a result, thermal loading calculated on the and 1 < n < N = number of customers in the
basis of coincident curve shape is usually representative of the utility system
thermal loads that will result from the actual non-coincident
load curves. Diversity factor, D(n), is the inverse of coincidence factor.
Voltage drop and losses are another matter, however. Fig. It measures how much higher the customer’s individual peak is
13 compares the losses that result in a set of triplex service than its contribution to group peak.
drops, for the two load curves Fig. 12A and Fig. 12B. The
result shown is typical. Use of coincident rather than non- D = Diversity factor = l/ Coincidence factor (5)
coincident load curve typically results in errors of up to 50% in
estimating low voltage system losses, and up to 16% in The coincidence factor, C(n), has a value between 0 and 1,
estimating the total voltage drop to the customer’s meter. and varies with the number of customers in a fashion identical
to the way the peak load varies. Fig. 14 shows a coincidence
curve, a plot of how C(n) varies with n. Typically, for
residential and small commercial load classes, C(n) tends
toward an asymptotic value of between .33 and SO for large
values of n. The value for larger commercial and industrial
customers is usually higher, - .75 to .85 is typical, Table 5
gives representative asymptotic coincidence values for typical
customer classes. Coincidence behavior varies greatly from
one utility to another, and among customer classes. The curves
and tables shown here are representative of the type of
behavior seen in all power systems, but can not be
quantitatively generalized to all power systems.

Fig. 13—Electric losses through a typical set of residential service

drops, for the load curves in Fig. 12A (left) and 12B (right).
Voltage drop would similarly show a significant difference.

Usually, coincident load curve data is readily available, but

accurate non-coincident load curve data is not. In addition,
many types of recording systems and analysis methods distort
non-coincident load curve data when it is recorded, producing
a smoother curve and lower peak loads than actually existed in
the load. Gathering and verifying accurate load curve shape,
load factor, and losses factor data for non-coincident and
“partially coincident” (groups of 5-20 customers) equipment
analysis requires care and attention to detail. However, it is F’lg. 14—Peak load per customer as a function of the number of
recommended, due to the potential error that inexact data customers in a group (left scale) and coincidence factor (right
creates in losses and voltage drop and flicker computations. scale) for residential class, from a power system in the central US.
Chapter 24 Characteristics
TABLE~-ASYMPTOTIC WINTER PEAK SEASON COINCIDENCE
FACTOR
BY CUSTOMERCLASS, FROM A SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES,BASEDON 15 MINUTEDEMANDPERIODDATA
19. Coincidence of Load Varies as Demand Varies
The coincidence curves and coincident data normally
gathered and applied to power system engineering represent
peak period behavior - the load conditions for which the
system design is targeted. On occasion, however, off-peak
coincidence data are gathered, usually to support detailed study
of load control, energy efficiency, and other integrated
resource programs (discussed later in this section), or for
detailed assessment of losses behavior and equipment
performance on an annual basis.
The “connected” load on a power system does not vary
substantially as a function of time. Electric demand varies
because the portion of devices activated by their control system
(whether manual or automatic) varies as a function of time.
During peak periods, a greater fraction of all customer
appliances are activated: There is a higher coincidence
loads. For example, in some areas in the southern United
States, over 90% of all residential space heaters are operating
at the time (15-minute demand period) of winter system peak.
However, during the maximum demand period of an off-peak
day (e.g., a day in late fall) only 20% will be operating.
Regardless, on either a winter peak day, or an off peak fall
day, individual households create needle peak loads as major
appliances operate through their on-off cycles. However,
during off-peak times, there will fewer needle peaks, of less
average duration. As a result, the likelihood of overlap of
needle peaks (e.g., coincidence) among neighboring customers
is less than at peak. As a result, coincidence curves
representing load behavior during peak and an off-peak times
will differ, as shown in Fig. 15.
Fig. 15—Coincidence curve for winter peak conditions, and for off-
peak conditions (late fall).
I I
of Distribution Loads 793
20. Load Duration Curves
A convenient way to study load behavior for some
engineering purposes is to order the demand samples from
greatest to smallest, rather than as a function of time, as shown
in Fig. 16. The two diagrams shown in Fig. 16 consist of the
same 24 numbers, in a different order. Peak load, minimum
load, and energy (area under the curve) are the same for both.
Fig. 16—The hourly demand samples in a 24-hour load curve are
“re-ordered” from greatest magnitude to least to form a daily
load duration curve.
Load duration curve behavior will vary as a function of the
level of the system. Load duration curves for small groups of
customers will have a greater ratio of peak to minimum than
similar curves for larger groups. Those for very small groups
(e.g, one or two customers) will have a pronounced
“blockiness,” consisting of plateaus - many hours of similar
demand level (at least if the load data were sampled at a fast
of enough rate). The plateaus correspond to combinations of
major appliance loads. The ultimate “plateau,” would be a
load duration curve of a single appliance, for example a water
heater that operated a total of 1,180 hours during the year.
This appliance’s load duration curve would show 1,180 hours
at its full load, and 7,580 hours at no load, with no values in
between.
Annual load duration curves. Most often, load duration
curves are produced on an annual basis, reordering all 8,760
hourly loads (or all 35,040 quarter hour samples if using 15-
minute demand intervals) in the year from highest to lowest to
form a diagram like that shown in Fig. 17. The load shown
was above 997 MW (system minimum) 8,760 hours in the
year, but above 2,000 MW for only 1700 hours.
Fig. 17—Annual load duration curve for a power system serving a
metropolitan area in the southeastern United States.
794 Characteristics of Distribution Loads Chapter 24

Fig. 18—Examples of coincidence curve modification due to various types of demand-side management (DSM) programs. Thin solid
line indicates base coincidence behavior. Heavier lines indicate the coincidence behavior of the load after DSM modification.

21. Coincidence Curve and DSM Interaction switches off, the water heater will activate. Over any lengthy
period of time (an hour or more) both appliances usually
Many integrated resource methods, such as appliance receive all the energy they need. Thus, over any large group of
interlocking and load control, and other demand-side customers, coincidence of energy usage within any demand
management (DSM) measures, change the coincidence period will not be affected. The asymptote is unchanged.
behavior of customer loads, not the loads themselves. For An opposite type of effect is shown by the broad line in Fig.
example, adding insulation and weather-sealing to a building 18B. Appliance load control is basically a method to limit
does nothing to change the load of its air conditioning and duty cycle, and thus coincidence of load. Typically, load
heating system. These energy conservation measures slow controllers are set to limit the operation of any appliance to no
heat transfer into and out of the building, lengthening the the more than a certain number of minutes per demand period. For
“off’ portions of every on-off cycle. The same needle peaks example, a controller might be set to limit its air conditioner to
occur, but spaced farther apart in time. Basically, this DSM no more than 12 minutes operation out of any 15 minute
measure cuts the percent of time the AC/heater is on, and period, a duty cycle of 80%. During peak conditions, the
hence the coincidence of these appliances. average thermostat may want to operate its air conditioner 90%
Fig. 18A illustrates the change in coincident load behavior of the time. Thus, this load control effects an 11% reduction in
made by universal use of appliance interlocking among all air conditioner energy usage. As a result, the asymptotic value
residential customers in a large group. Interlocking involves of the coincidence curve, for large groups of customers with
jointly wiring the thermostats for the electric water heater, and load control, is reduced.
the air-conditioner/heater, so that the water heater cannot Such a load control measure makes no impact on the
operate if the air-conditioner/heater is operating. It is a simple maximum height of the needle peaks produced by any
form of the appliance schedule optimization that can be household. The AC unit is still the same connected load, and
affected with home automation systems. still likely to overlap with other appliances to create high
The broad line in Fig. 18A shows the resulting coincidence needle peaks. As a result, load control has no impact on the
curve. The 22 kW peak values, which occasionally resulted value of the coincidence curve for individual customers. In
from the random overlapping of appliances activating cases where control is poorly coordinated, or the load control is
simultaneously, are now completely avoided. As a result, the aggressively used to maximize the reduction of coincident
22 kW peak values, and the value of the coincidence curve at peak load, it can produce a “rebound effect,” increasing peak
the Y-axis, are both reduced by the magnitude of the water loads on some levels of the system, as shown by the dotted line
heater’s connected load (4 kW in this example). in Fig. 18B. Fig. 18C through Fig. 18F represent the actions of
However, the water heater is not denied energy. Its use is other often-used DSM approaches.
merely deferred until periods when the air conditioner or heater Fig. 18 illustrates two very important points about DSM
is switched off. As soon as the master (AC-heater) appliance programs. First, DSM programs do not necessarily produce
Chapter 24 795

similar amounts of load reduction on all levels of the power to zero. Demand recorders as used in revenue metering and
system. Second, by use of coincidence curve analysis of the most (but not all) electronic meters use this type of load
type shown in Fig. 18, it is possible to target a DSM program’s recording.
load reductions at particular levels of the power system. DSM Essentially, instantaneous sampling records the actual load
measures that affect the peak loads of large groups of value at specific instants spaced an interval apart. Period
customers, or small groups, can be selected as needed to target integration averages its load measurement over the entire
feeder or service (LV) levels. sample interval between two of those instances. There can be,
and usually is, a considerable difference in the recorded data,
IV. MEASURING LOAD CURVE DATA depending on which of these two different sampling techniques
is used.
Regardless of the actual behavior of the electric load, it is
measured and sampled through the “eyes” of equipment and
procedures which may introduce errors by not capturing
completely all of the load’s characteristics. Many types of load
recording perform a type of filtering that makes load behavior
look more coincident (smoother, lower peak) than it actually
was. Other types mis-recording of load cycles in a way that
renders the load curve data virtually useless. In both cases, the
data looks like load curves, but is inaccurate. Regardless,
power engineers must be aware of the source of all load data,
the method used in its recording, and any limitations it creates
on the accuracy or use of the resulting data.

22. Load Sampling Rate and Type

Most load measurement, recording, and analysis equipment

and procedures work with load curve data as sampled data.
Load values are measured and recorded at uniform intervals of
time. For example, often load curves are represented in
engineering studies as 24 hourly loads. Many load recorders
measure and store load behavior on a 15-minute basis. There
are two very important aspects of sampling. The first is the
type of sampling used, the second is the rate of its application.
Discrete sampling measures and records the load’s value at
specific periodic instances. For example, load recorder may
measure electrical load every 15 minutes. Every quarter hour,
this device “opens its eyes” to sample the load, and records the
value, and begins a waiting period until the next sampling
Fig. 19—Two different load sampling methods (middle, bottom)
instant. What the load does in between those 15-minute
applied on an hourly basis to the residential load curve from Fig.
sample periods is immaterial to the recorder. 12A (top), produce quite different data.
This kind of sampling, which is often called instantaneous
sampling, is the type normally dealt with in textbooks on signal
processing as “discrete sampling.” Much of the load data used Fig. 19 shows the single all-electric household daily load
in power systems studies comes from this type of sampling. curve from Fig. 12A, along with versions of it obtained by
Many types of distribution load recorders (“load loggers”) do sampling on an hourly basis with period integration (middle)
only instantaneous sampling. SCADA systems that “trap” load and discrete sampling (bottom).’ Neither demand sampling
readings on a periodic basis do instantaneous sampling. nor instantaneous discrete sampling on an hourly basis
Manual reading of load strip charts is basically discrete captures all the details of the load behavior. However, in this
sampling: typically, load data is prepared for computer case, discrete sampling produces a very spurious-looking load
curve. for reasons that will be discussed later.
processing from strip charts by an engineer or analyst who
reads the value every so often from the strip chart and codes it
into the computer data base. 23. Observed Load Behavior and Sampling Rate
Demand sampling, also called period integration, The second important aspect of load curve sampling is the
measures and records the total energy used during each period. sampling rate. Fig. 20 shows Fig. 12A load curve sampled
If applied on a 15-minute basis, period integration records the with period integration on a 5, 15, 60 and 120-minute basis.
energy (demand) during each 15-minute period. At the Note that the resulting data displays significantly different
beginning of each measurement interval, a watt-hour meter is
re-set to zero and begins counting the energy used. At the end
The load curve in Fig. 12A was obtained using period integration
of the period, the reading is recorded, and the counter is re-set (demand sampling) on a five-minute interval basis.
796 Characteristics
behavior, depending on sampling rate. As the sampling is
done faster, the curve shape displays more of its blocky, on-off
nature: the recorded data comes closer to representing the true
load curve shape peak value.
But as shown, if a load is sampled by period integration
applied at a slow rate, the resulting load data may look smooth,
when, in fact, actual behavior is erratic, with high needle
peaks. Fig. 21 shows peak demand for the data in Fig. 12,
plotted as a function of period integration sampling rate. The
measured peak load decreases as the sampling period increases
from five-minutes to one hour. The reason is that the sampling
rate, or demand interval, defines the meaning of “peak”.
Sampled at one-minute intervals, the peak is the maximum 60-
second demand. Sampling on an hourly basis smoothes out a
lot of the needle peaks, and yields a curve whose peak is the
maximum one hour demand. A non-coincident curve (top of
Fig. 20) can look like it was smoother and very “coincident”
simply because it was demand-sampled at too low a sampling
rate.
Fig. 20—Single household load (Fig. 12A) sampled by period
integration (demand recorder) on a 5,30,60,120-minute basis.
of Distribution Loads
Fig. 21—Measured peak demand of a single residential customer
varies greatly depending on the intervals used to sample its load.
As shown in Fig. 20 and Fig. 21, changing the sampling
rate changes the perceived or measured peak value and the
“choppiness” (variance) seen in the load curve. However, not
all types of load curves are equally sensitive to this
phenomenon, This effect is most pronounced when sampling
non-coincident load curves - those representing small sets of
appliances or just a few customer. It is minor or undetectable
when sampling load of large groups of customers, such as an
entire system.
Thus, the apparent coincidence of load changes as a
function of sampling rate. Fig. 22 shows coincidence curves
for the residential customers used earlier in Fig. 12- 16, re-
computed based on period integration sampling intervals of 5,
15, and 60 minutes. Because the peak load of a single
customer, upon which coincidence factor computation is based,
changes a great deal as a function of sampling rate (Fig. 21),
the coincidence curve, itself, will change. Characteristics and
sensitivity discussed here involve only period integration
sampling (i.e., demand recorders), which is the most common
approach to gathering load research and load curve data.
Fig. 22—Coincidence curves based on data measured at 60, 15, and
5 minute demand intervals for residential all-electric homes.
Aliasing. Instantaneous sampling has a far different
interaction with sampling rate and recording accuracy than the
period integration method discussed above. Fig. 23 shows the
load for a single household (Fig. 12A) measured by
instantaneous sampling on an hourly basis. One profile is the
result of sampling instantaneously every hour, on the hour.
The other is sampled hourly a quarter past the hour. The
apparent load curve shape, and peak load of these two curves
are different. Neither is an accurate representation of the
actual load curve behavior.
Chapter 24 Characteristics of Distribution Loads 797

The problem with instantaneous sampling applied in this 24. Signal Engineering Perspective on Load Sampling
case is that its rate is much to slow to “see” the load behavior.
Load as a function of time is a signal, a value measured as a
But unlike period integration, which smooths the load curve
function of a continuously varying indexing parameter. A
when applied at a slow rate, instantaneous discrete sampling
fundamental concept of signal engineering is that any signal
distorts it, badly, as shown. The load being recorded in this
can be represented as the sum of a set of sine waves of
case (Fig. 12A), has very erratic on-off load behavior common
different frequencies and magnitudes. Low frequencies are
to non-coincident loads. It is simply random chance whether a
slowly undulating sine waves, high frequencies represent rapid
particularly hourly recording instant, falls upon a needle peak,
shifts in value. Any behavior that is characterized by rapid
or a “needle valley.” For a load that has needle peaks, as does
shifts in value is high frequency behavior. A load curve with a
any individual household load, instantaneous sampling at a low
great deal of on-off “choppiness,” as for example Fig. 12A, has
sampling rate gives very poor, even completely unusable
a large amount of relatively high frequency behavior. On the
results.
other hand, a smooth coincident load curve (Fig. 12B) has no
high frequencies.
A fundamental theorem of sampled signal theory is that for
instantaneously discrete sampled data to be valid, the sampling
must be done at twice the rate of the highest frequency in the
signal. Thus, to capture completely behavior of a load curve
that has rapid shifts in load (and thus avoid errors as depicted
in Fig. 23), it is necessary to sample it twice as often as its
appliance loads cycle on and off. Since many appliances turn
on and off within a fifteen or even ten-minute period, a
minimum rate of five-minute sampling is necessary to see peak
load, coincidence, and load curve behavior of such rapid
Fig. 23—Single household load curve (top of Fig. 20) sampled with cycling on an individual household basis. Better yet, one-
hourly discrete sampling. Left: load curve sampled discretely minute samples can be used when trying to identify appliance
every hour at the beginning of the hour. Right; sampled every or individual household load behavior in detail.
hour 15 minutes after the hour. As mentioned in sub-section 23, instantaneous discrete
sampling and period integration sampling differ dramatically in
While the two load curves in Fig. 23 look quite different, what they do if sampling rate falls short of these requirements.
and bear no resemblance to the actual load curve shape, they Essentially, period integration samples a load curve but filters
share one characteristic: Both seem to oscillate back and forth it simultaneously. The averaging over each demand interval,
every three to five hours. This is called aliasing, or “frequency as discussed above, smoothes out choppiness (removes high
folding” in signal theory, and is essentially a “beat frequency” frequencies). To a very good approximation, this type of
generated by interference between the sampling rate, and the sampling can be thought of as responding only to frequencies
duty cycle rate of the appliances in Fig. 12A. Something in the signal that are in the band of frequencies below one-half
similar to this occurs any time the measured quantity being its sampling rate. The period integration responds to
sampled cycles back and forth at a faster rate than the frequencies in the band it can “see” (those below its sampling
sampling. In this example, appliances are cycling on and off rate limit) and ignores those above that limit.
at a rate much too fast for the hourly sampling rate to track. Thus, sampling a load at half-hour intervals with period
The beat frequency, or “aliasing profile” shown here, is a integration will obtain valid information on all frequencies in
characteristic of under-sampled curves, something to watch for the load up to one cycle/hour, but will smooth out, or filter,
in load data. This type of distortion is common. It is fairly fluctuations that are due to more rapid load behavior. (This
easy to detect by manual inspection (at least if given some perspective is slightly simplistic - i.e., only approximate on
training and understanding of what causes it), and its presence several minor technical points - but sufficient for this
means that the load curve data is probably completely invalid. discussion). Instantaneous sampling, on the other hand, does
In the presence of a great deal of erratic on-off load shifts, not filtering, and tries to respond to everything it sees.
as occurs in most non-coincident loads, neither period However, it can only validly see frequencies below twice its
integration (demand sampling) or instantaneous discrete sampling rate. It responds to frequencies above that limit by
sampling gives a completely accurate measurement of the load aliasing them, interpreting high frequency changes as low
curve behavior. The integration method averages behavior frequency. The result is a recorded load curve that may be
over each period. The instantaneous method may chance upon invalid for most engineering and analysis purposes, as are
any value. If the load being measured is fairly smooth, for those in Fig. 23.
example the load of an entire power system, then the level of
error in either case is minute and the issue unimportance. On 25. Determination of the Sampling Method and Type
the other hand, if there is a good deal of non-coincident load
behavior, as usually with loads measured on the distribution Both period integration and instantaneous sampling record
system, then the sampling rate phenomena discussed here are only “approximate data” when applied at too low a sampling
of concern in the load analysis and subsequent engineering. rate to track non-coincident behavior in the load. Instantaneous
798 Characteristics of Distribution
sampling aliases high-frequency load behavior, producing load
curve data that is useless for engineering and load analysis
purposes. On the other hand, period integration filters out the
high-frequency behavior in the load, producing curves that
appear “more coincident” than the actual load. While this
introduces an inaccuracy in subsequent load analysis and
engineering, the curves are at least correct within the context of
coincident load analysis.
In all cases, the preferred approach is to use period
integration applied at a high enough rate to sample all the
behavior pertinent to the engineering. However, choice of
sampling rate and method is often a compromise between cost
and accuracy. There will always be some load behavior
occurring at a rate faster than can be sampled. Most loads
contain motor starting transients and switching fluctuations
that can only be captured by very high (10 Mhz) sampling
rates.
The engineers and load analysts performing load research
must either select a load recording method that suits their
needs, or make only valid use of the data that has been given to
them. Recommended practice is to research fully where the
load curve data came from and how it was recorded, and if it
has gone through any type of aggregation, filtering, or other
process that might have altered coincident demand behavior.
Although a majority of recorded load research data comes from
demand interval recorders (period integration), a surprising
number of sources produce discrete sampling. This includes
data taken from SCADA systems, certain types of signal
recorders, as well as most portable devices made for logging
loads on feeder and service level circuits. In addition, many
people forget that data “read by hand” from strip and circular
charts is essentially discretely sampled data.
The fact that instantaneous sampling can, and often does,
severely alias non-coincident load behavior does not mean it is
necessarily a bad recording method, but it must be used with
caution. Similarly, while period integration (demand
recorders, etc.) always records accurately within its sampling
rate limitations, it can be applied at too slow a rate to see
needle peaks and non-coincident load behavior that are present.
High sample rate does not guarantee high frequencies.
Sampling a signal at a fast rate does not guarantee that there
will be high frequencies in the data. It could very well be that
the load being sampled is smooth and has no high frequencies.
Often, the sensors in recording machinery have a poor
response to high-rate fluctuations. For example, strip chart
recorders with a very tight dampers cannot respond to fast load
shifts. Essentially, such mechanical stabilizers remove high
frequencies from the load curve signal.
26. Addition and Averaging Filter Load Curve Data
Suppose every one of 1,000 households served by a
particular feeder is sampled on a one-minute demand basis, for
a full day (creating 1,440 samples per customer). An average
load curve can then be formed by adding all 1000 load curves
and dividing by 1000. The result will be a smooth, coincident
curve, in fact the same curve shape (except for losses) that
would have been recorded by measuring the feeder load at the
substation. While adding together 1,000 load curves and
Loads Chapter 24
dividing by 1,000 may seem to be a proper way to produce a
representative single-household non-coincident load curve, it
gives a smooth coincident curve instead.
Addition is a signal filtering process. The “average” curve
obtained by addition/division of a number of customer sample
load curves is filtered, in a way that removed high frequency
load fluctuations. This is the major reason why many T&D
engineering studies and load analysis procedures consistently
underestimate non-coincident load behavior and often
underestimate the amount of coincidence (value of C(n) for n
very large). Most of the load curve data available to engineers
has been obtained and processed by averaging a group of
sampled customer load curves. This averaging produces only
coincident load curve data. Most load curve data in use at
electric utilities has been produced by averaging, over large
enough - customer samples, that it is effectively representation
of completely coincident behavior.
It makes no difference, in the example cited above, whether
the load curves added together were samples for 1,000
households on the same day, as described above, or perhaps
1000 days worth of one minute readings for one house. In
either case, the result of adding together the sampled curves
and averaging them to create an average with create a smooth,
coincident load curve.
The usual reason that a set of load curves is averaged is to
produce a single curve that is most representative of the set’s
behavior. Simply put, algebraic methods (averaging) cannot
be used to produce average non-coincident curves: there is no
work-around within normal algebraic approaches. Instead,
some form of pattern recognition or clustering analysis must be
applied to find the “load curve most like all the others.” For
example, the k-.means method of cluster analysis can be used to
identify one or more curves which have, individually, the most
“average” peak load, variation rates, energy usage, and daily
curve shape.
27. Sampling Rate Influences Load Duration Curve Shape
Load duration curves will appear different depending on the
sampling rate of the load data, too, as shown in Fig. 24. Since
data sampled at faster rates “sees” non-coincident needle
peaks, it yields load duration curves that reflect that load
behavior. Fig. 24 shows annual load duration curves for Fig.
12A, based on 5- and 60-minute demand period sampled data.
Fig. 24—Load duration curves of single residential customer (e.g.,
Fig. 12A) based on two sampling rates.
Chapter 24 Characteristics of Distribution Loads 799

IV. DISTRIBUTION LOSSES ARE NOT

PROPORTIONAL TO DEMAND SQUARED
One result of the coincidence behavior and sampling issues
illustrated in this chapter is that the load-related losses on a
power distribution system generally do not correspond to the
square of the metered demand. The difference is due to
interaction of demand sampling with the coincidence effects of
the loads being served. Fig. 25 illustrates an extreme case, in
which losses are a purely linear function of measured demand.
The water heater operates for 15 minutes during the hour from
6 to 7 AM, and 30 minutes in the hour from 7 to 8 AM.
Demand measured on an hourly basis doubles. Electrical
losses in the wiring serving this water heater also double.
They do not quadruple (as they would if losses varied as the
square of demand) because the peak load in every demand
interval is the same: as the demand changes from hour to hour,
only the load factor changes.
In the extreme case shown in Fig. 25, losses in the line
serving only the water heater, are a purely linear function of
demand. This will be true regardless of the demand period
intervals. Whether measured and compared on a minute, hour,
day, or annual basis, losses are a linear function of demand.

Fig. 25—Load of a water heater over a four-hour period (left) and

the losses that result in the line serving it (right).

Load behavior at the service (LV) level is seldom the

perfect “all or nothing” on-off load situation depicted in Fig.
25, but neither is the relationship between losses and load an
“I’R” relationship. Observed losses vs. demand behavior
generally falls somewhere between two extremes characterized
by fundamentally different behavior of the load:

Losses are a linear function of demand. In such cases, the

peak load is identical in every demand period and load
factor changes from one demand period to another.

Losses are a squared (quadratic) function of demand. The

losses’ factor remains constant in each demand period but
peak load varies in proportion to demand.
Fig. 2&A: Hourly losses vs. hourly demand over a one-week
The exact nature of the losses vs. demand relationship period for the secondary circuit/drops serving one of the 282
observed in any situation will depend on the load curve itself, homes in a neighborhood served exclusively by a single
the demand period with which load and losses are measured, distribution primary feeder* Lower (curved) line indicates a
squared losses vs. demand relationship, upper (straight) line
and possible errors in the monitoring and recording of the data.
indicates a linear relationship. B: Hourly load-related losses vs.
Fig. 26 shows three examples of losses vs. demand
hourly demand for the 12.47 kV distribution feeder serving these
measurements on the distribution system. In all three, the 282 homes. C: Monthly load-related losses vs. monthly energy
observed 1OSSeS VS. demand relationship lies within an envelope (this can be converted to “monthly demand be dividing energy by
defined by the two extremes - linear and squared behavior. 731 hours/month) for the same feeder over the same period.
800 Characteristics of Distribution Loads Chapter 24

28. Relationship Between Losses and Demand shows the losses vs. demand data for this feeder, on an hourly
demand period basis. The relationship appears much closer to
Usually, electrical losses are modeled as a function of
squared than when the individual customer data was examined
demand with an equation fitted to measurements taken during
on the same hourly basis (Fig. 26A). Error in estimating losses
selected periods (e.g., the data in Fig. 26). Most often, the
as a function of demand occurs with a = .07, b = .93, and e =
function used estimates hourly losses as a function of hourly
1.91. (A larger value of b, and a value of e closer to 2,
demand, using the maximum recorded hourly demand, and
indicates a more “squared’ relationship). Generally, losses vs.
maximum recorded hourly losses as factors in the computation.
demand behavior for equipment serving large groups of
Either of two functional representations are often used. As
customers appears less linear and more quadratic (squared)
applied to hourly data, they would be:
than for smaller groups.
Losses(h) = L,,, x (a x D (h)/D,,, + b x (D(h)/Dma.J2) (6) In Fig. 26C, the feeder’s losses and energy (essentially the
same as demand, demand = energy/173.33 hr./mth.) are
Losses(h) = L,,, x (D(h)/ D,,,) ’ compared on a monthly basis, instead of the hourly basis used
in Fig. 26B. The observed relationship between losses and
Where h indicates the hour, demand is much more linear than when hourly intervals were
D(h) is the demand observed in hour h, used to analyze the same load: error is minimized with a = .4 1,
D max = maximum recorded hourly demand b = .59, and e = 1.52. The monthly demand period is much
Lmax = losses during maximum demand hour longer than the major cycle periods of the feeder’s load (daily
a+b=l and weekly variations). Generally, losses vs. demand behavior
e is a value between 1.O and 2.0 appears more linear if longer demand intervals are used in the
analysis.
The values a and b in equation 6 are essentially the same as
the “a and b factors” used in traditional computations of losses 29. Mean Error in Estimating Loads
factor from load factor.2 They represent the extent to which
losses behave in a linear, or squared, manner, respectively. Representation of losses as a squared function of demand in
Where losses are a linear function of load, a = 1 and b = 0, and equations like 6 and 7 usually results in underestimation of the
the value e in equation 7 would be 1.O. Where losses have a average level of losses. Note the plotted lines, representing
squared relationship to demand, a = 0, b = 1, and e = 2.0. linear and squared losses behavior in Fig. 26. The curve
Significant “non-squared” losses behavior on distribution representing losses as a function of demand squared is lower in
systems usually occurs in the equipment that serves individual all cases than the measured losses. The line representing
customers with small loads. The most extreme “non-squared” losses as a linear function of demand is uniformly higher than
losses vs. demand behavior that is routinely encountered is a any of the losses’ measurements. This is always the case when
single household load, as shown in Fig. 26A (data is taken using losses estimation equations such as 6 or 7, calibrated
from the same load as in Fig. 12A. This is the losses vs. load against peak period demand and the values D,,, and L,,,.
situation for the service drops leading to this single house. Generally, if the long-term performance of a load analysis
As the measured hourly demand in Fig. 12A varies, both its and prediction equation is to overestimate losses, then it is too
peak load and load factor vary roughly in proportion to one linear in the calibration of its a and b, or e terms, regardless of
another. As a result, hourly losses vs. demand behavior is a the level of its average absolute hourly error. Similarly, if it
mixture of the two extremes discussed above. Modeling of consistently shows a bias toward underestimating the amount
hourly losses as a squared function of hourly demand (a = 0 of losses over many demand periods, then it has been
and b = 1 in equation 6, or e= 2.0 in equation 7) gives 35% calibrated as too quadratic, even if it is giving satisfactory
average absolute error. Error is 13.5% when using 15 minute average error on a demand-period basis.
intervals. Modeling of the losses as a linear function of
demand gives roughly twice these levels of error (almost all
TABLE 6—COEFFICIENTS
FOR LOSSES vs. DEMAND ON AN HOURLY
distribution losses behavior is closer to squared than to linear).
DEMANDPERIODBASISAS A FUNCTION
OF SYSTEMLEVEL
Usually, proper selection of a, b, and e coefficients can cut
error by about 3/4. Use of a = .33 and b = .66 in equation 6
minimizes average absolute error, reducing it from 35% to
8.9%. Use of e = 1.51 in equation 7 similarly minimizes error,
at 9.1%. The two equations provide different estimates on an
hourly basis (with an average absolute difference of 4%) but
are roughly equal in overall modeling accuracy. When using
quarter-hour demand periods in this example, a = .24, b = .76,
and e = 1.6 minimizes average absolute error, at less than 5%.
The load curve shown in Fig. 12A is one of 282 residential
loads in a neighborhood served by a 12.47 kV feeder. Fig. 26B

For example, see Electric Utility Distribution Systems Engineering Reference

Book, Westinghouse Electric Company, 1959, page 28.
Chapter 24 801

30. Modeling Losses on the Distribution System

The relation observed between losses and demand on a

T&D system will depend on the customer load behavior, the
measuring and recording equipment being used, and the
demand period length of the recording and analysis.
Generally, coincidence and demand period affect results:

I. Coincidence. Equipment that serves small groups of

customers, exhibits more linear losses vs. demand
behavior (higher ratio of a/b; lower e) than equipment
with many customers downstream. For example, the
single customer hourly data shown in Fig. 26A is much
more linear than that for the group of 282 customers in
Fig. 26B. The two plots show essentially the same load
type, observed on the same (hourly) demand period
basis. Losses vs. demand for coincident load situations
is closer to quadratic. For non-coincident situations it
is usually closer to linear.
Thus, the best values of a and b, or e, to estimate Fig. 27—Values of b for equation 4 that give minimum error in
losses as a function of demand on an hourly basis, will estimating losses from demand for residential load in a utility
depend on the level of the system being modeled. system in the southwestern United States. Losses vs. demand
Table 6 gives typical values for b and e on power behavior on other systems will differ quantitatively from the
systems in North America. values shown here, but is generally qualitatively similar.
“Number of Customers” less than 1 refers to individual
appliances loads and household circuits.
2. Demand period length. The losses vs. demand
relationship shown in Fig. 26A, for the service drops
leading to a household like that shown in Fig. 12A, is a 31. Losses vs. Demand on the Entire Distribution System
mixture of linear and squared behavior when sampled
on an hourly demand basis. The hourly sampling rate is From 25% to 66% of distribution losses occur on portions
much longer than the natural on-off cycles of many of of the distribution system near the customer, portions that
the major appliances (see sub-section 13 of this deviate significantly from a “squared’ losses vs. demand
chapter). The losses vs. demand relation would appear relationship. As a result, the overall losses vs. demand
to be nearly a perfect squared relationship if evaluated relationship for an entire distribution system will usually
on a minute by minute basis (not shown). deviate noticeably from a squared relationship. The
Similarly, losses vs. demand data for the feeder has a quantitative relationship varies from one system to another
considerable non-quadratic behavior when viewed on a depending on customer loads, system equipment types, and
monthly basis (Fig. 26C), because the demand periods layout and design used in the primary and service levels.
are much longer than the daily and weekly load swings Generally, b is in the range of .75 to .88, behavior is more
normally seen in the load, as well as the three- to six- quadratic than linear, but sufficiently non-quadratic that
day weather-front cycles which often affect the significant error(on the order of 25%) results in predicting
weather-sensitive portion of these loads. Hourly hourly losses from demand if a purely squared relationship is
demand periods (Fig. 26B) are much shorter than these assumed.
cycles, and observed losses vs. demand behavior at this
demand period length is very nearly a perfectly squared
relation. Short demandperiods produce more quadratic
losses vs. demand behavior; while long demand periods
result in a relationship that appears more linear.
“Short” and “long” as used here are relative to the
dynamic cycles or periodicities of the load behavior.

Therefore, the overall losses vs. demand relationship

depends on both the equipment level of the system being
studied (amount of load or customers downstream) and the
demand period being used for data and analysis. Fig. 27 shows
values of b (for equation 6) that work well as a function of
level of the system and demand period in a typical residential Fig. 28—Monthly energy vs. load-related losses for the system that
area in the southwestern United States. The qualitative includes the feeder aid loads shown in Fig. 26. This includes
behavior shown occurs on all power systems. losses on feeders, laterals, and secondary/service drops. b 578
802 Characteristics of Distribution
VI. T&D SYSTEMS ARE BUILT TO SATISFY
CUSTOMERS, NOT LOADS
32. Quantity, Quality, and Value
The diverse types of consumers purchasing electric power
from the distribution system have different uses for the power
they buy, different needs for quantity (amount of power
purchased), and needs for quality (continuous availability, tight
voltage regulation), and different dispositions to pay a
premium price to get exactly what they need. The value a
particularly consumer places on electric power is a function of
his or her needs for electricity, primarily as defined by the
economic or personal value of the end-use (i.e., watching
television and keeping food cool, stamping sheet metal into
equipment cases, operating a cash register/inventory system),
and as fashioned by the demands of the appliances used to
convert electricity into the end-use.
The major element of customer quality is availability of
sufficient quantities of power. Quality can be as or even more
important than quantity in determining the customer value, but
the important point is that both quantity and quality are major
factors to be considered in determining how to maximize
customer value. Two common residential appliances that
illustrate the opposite extremes in these two “Q dimensions”
that can exist among customers. These are an electric water
heater and a personal computer.
A typical 50-gallon storage water heater has a connected
load of 4,000 watts, and a coincident contribution to system
peak of about 1,100 watts. This is a relatively high demand for
quantity of power as compared to most household appliances
(typically only central air conditioners or heaters use more
power). Power to a water heater can be interrupted routinely
for several hours at a time (and often is under peak-shaving
load control programs). Such interruptions make little impact
on its value to the customer, because it can supply reasonable
quantities of hot water from its storage tank during power
interruptions. In addition, its end-use performance is virtually
immune to voltage sags, surges, and even significant long term
variations in supply voltage. Thus, while a water heater has a
high demand for quantity, it has a low demand for power
quality.
Fig. 29-Cast vs. interruption duration when an interruption is
unexpected (top), and when one day’s notice is given (bottom).
Loads Chapter 24
A personal computer exhibits demand characteristics
exactly the opposite of the water heater’s. A typical PC has a
connected load of about 180 watts, and a contribution to
coincident peak of the same magnitude. But while its
connected load is one twentieth, and its peak demand only one
sixth of the water heater’s, its demand for quality is much
higher. Measured as the time it can go without power while
continuing to perform its end-use function, a PC is about
15,000 times more sensitive to power continuity problems than
a water heater. It is also vastly more sensitive to voltage sags
and surges, and long-term changes in voltage.
Largely because of the different needs of their appliances
and equipment, and the difference values of the net end-use
products, electric customers vary greatly in their demand for
electric power quality. Fig. 29 gives five examples of “cost of
interruption” value of electric customers. The cost vs. time
functions shown are not typical, because there is no typical
need for power quality, just as there is no typical quantity of
power requirement that suits all customers. In general,
commercial and industrial consumers have a higher demand
for both quantity and quality of power than residential
consumers.
In a competitive electric power industry, and a world where
attention to quality is taken for granted in many other
industries, power system engineers should anticipate increasing
levels of attention on quality of power delivered. This does not
necessarily mean that quality must be or will be improved.
Cost is an important element of value, and a large portion of
consumers in most power systems would prefer to pay a lower
price for power, even if that means they must sacrifice some
amount of power quality in return. The important point is that
like quantity of power, quality is an important attribute. As it
is with quantity, it is possible to overbuild or underbuild a
power system with respect to the amount of quality that needs
to be delivered. The challenge facing power engineers is to
design the lowest cost system that can deliver the required
levels of both, and no more.
VI. GROWTH OF ELECTRIC LOAD AND T&D
CAPACITY REQUIREMENTS
33. Spatial Distribution of Load Defines T&D Needs
Electric load is not evenly spread throughout a power
system’s service area, but instead, non-homogeneously
distributed, with high load density in some areas and no load in
others, as shown in Fig. 30. This is due to the heterogeneous
distribution of land use and activity within any city, town, or
rural region - some areas are more densely settled and active
than others. Not shown in Fig. 30, but an important fact in
determining electric load, is that customer class varies by
location, too. Some areas of a system are nearly entirely
residential, others commercial, or industrial, and others mixed.
The load map in Fig. 30 shows some very common
characteristics of spatial load distribution, shared by most large
metropolitan areas: high load density in the urban core,
gradually decreasing toward the periphery, with tendrils of
higher load density following major transportation corridors.
Chapter 24 Characteristics of Distribution Loads 803

Fig. 30—Spatial distribution of electric load for a city of about 1 million population in the eastern United States. Shading indicates
load density. Lines indicate major roads. At the left, 1998 winter peak load. At the right, a forecast of peak load for year 2010,
based on projected trends in load density, customer count, area development, peripheral expansion, and end-use loads. The city is
projected to grow both up and out during the 12-year period. Some interior areas are projected to increase in load density, but others
are not, and load density decreases in a few areas. Load develops in previously vacant areas, particularly along the south periphery.

The load maps in Fig. 30 outline the mission of the T&D 35. Growth Drives System Expansion
system for the region shown. In the year 1998 it must deliver
Fig. 30B shows the projected load 12 years later than Fig.
2,3 10 MVA of electric power in the geographic pattern shown.
30A, based on a detailed evaluation of economic growth of the
Its ability to do so reliably and economically is the major
region, land availability, demographic and zoning factors, and
measure of its performance as a power delivery system.
expected changes in per capita and end-use loads. After this
34. Load Density Varies With Location 12-year period of growth, the T&D system will be expected to
deliver 3,144 MW in the pattern shown. During the intervening
Fig. 30 illustrates how load density varies as a function of 12 years, additions and changes to the system must be made so
location within a power system. Analysis of load in terms of that it can grow along with the load. This load growth is the
kW/acre or MW/square mile is a convenient way of relating it motivation for the equipment additions, and the expansion
to local T&D capacity needs and is often used in power budget will be well spent only if the equipment is located, and
delivery planning. Load density is an important aspect of locally sized properly, to match the evolving load pattern in
T&D planning, since the capacity and location requirements of Fig. 30B.
T&D equipment depend on local load characteristics, not Comparison of Fig. 30A and Fig. 30B reveals several
system averages. Typical ranges of values for urban, suburban, characteristics of load growth as it affects T&D systems:
and developed rural areas are given in Table 7. The values
shown are typical, but values specific to each particular system Previously vacant areas develop load, e.g., the swath of
should be obtained by measurement. load growth across the entire southern frontier of this city
between 1998 and 2010. Entirely new parts of the system
must be built into these areas.
TABLE7—TYPICAL
LOAD DENSITIES
FORVARIOUS TYPES
OFAREAS

Some vacant areas do not grow. For whatever reason,

some areas remain vacant, often because of local
covenants or because they are for public use (parks, etc).

Load in some developed areas increases in load density,

perhaps substantially. Examples in Fig. 30 include the
urban core and some areas in outlying areas.

Load in some developed areas remains constant, or falls

slightly due to increasing appliance efficiency in areas
that otherwise remain unchanged (no new building
construction or population increase).

804
The difference between Fig. 30A and Fig. 30B represents
the challenge facing this system’s T&D planners. They must
make additions whose equipment types, capacities, locations,
and interconnections to the existing system result in a “12-
years hence” system that can reliably and economically serve
the pattern shown.
36. Two Causes of Load Growth
Two simultaneous processes create electric load growth or
change, both at the system and at the distribution level.
Increases in the number of customers in the utility service
area, and increases in the usage per customer cause electric
load to grow. No other process causes load growth: If the
electric demand on a power system increases from one year to
the next, it can be due only to one or a combination of both of
these processes:
I) New customers are added to a system due to migration
into an area (population growth) or electrification of
previously non-electric households. Customer growth
causes the spread of electric load into areas that were
“vacant” from the power system’s standpoint.
2) Changes in per capita usage occur simultaneously and
largely independently of any change in the number of
customers. In developing economies this is driven by
the acquisition of new appliances and equipment in
homes and businesses. In developing nations, per
capita load growth often decreases, due to improving
appliance efficiency.
In cases where per capita consumption is increasing, it is
usually due to major shifts in appliance market penetration. For
example, the percentage of homes and businesses using electric
power to heat the interior of buildings may increase from 20%
to 26% over a decade. In such a case, even if appliance
efficiency is increased slightly, electric load will grow.
37. Spatial Load Growth and the “S” Curve Characteristic
When viewed from a total system basis, a growing power
system generally exhibits a smooth, continuous trend of annual
peak load growth. Given a healthy economy, and corrected for
variations due to weather, the load in the region will simply
continue to grow at a continuous rate.
Fig. 31—The “S curve” has an interval of high growth rate
sandwiched between two periods of lower rate growth.
-_
Chapter 24
By contrast, growth in any relatively small geographic area
is not a smooth continuous trend from year to year. Instead, it
follows the Gompertz curve, commonly referred to as an 5”
curve, shown in Fig. 31. The “S” curve is the basic behavior
of load growth as it affects T&D equipment, such as in feeder
and substation areas. Nearly every small area within a large
power system has a load growth history similar to that shown
in Fig. 3 1, for a very simple reason: landfills up.
The S curve has three distinct phases, periods during the
local area’s history when fundamentally different growth
dynamics are at work:
Dormant. The time ‘before growth”, when no load
growth is occurring. The small area has no load and
experiences no growth: growth “hasn’t arrived yet.”
Growth ramp. During this period growth occurs at
a relatively rapid rate, usually due to new
construction.
Saturation. The small area is “filled up” - fully
developed. Growth may continue, but at a very low
level compared to that during the growth ramp.
What varies most among the thousands of small areas in a
large utility service territory is the timing of their growth
ramps. Seen in aggregate over several thousand small areas,
and the overall system load curve looks smooth and continuous
because there are always roughly the same number of small
areas in their rapid period of growth. The continuous year-to-
year trend for the whole system is due to diversity in the timing
of when areas grow: any one area grows for only a short time,
but new areas of growth are constantly being added to a
growing city, so as a whole, it grows continuously.
Evidence of historical “S” curve load growth exists in every
city. Most people can identify areas of their home town or city
that developed in the 196Os, the 1970s the 1980s or the 1990s.
The buildings in these areas are of a common age, because all
were built during a “burst” of development in that area, at that
time.
38. Relation of Load Growth Causes to “S” Curve Shape
These two causes of load growth are tied to different parts
of the “S” curve characteristics, as shown in Fig. 31. The
growth ramp occurring over a short period of time is due to
new customers in the area. The slow, steady growth thereafter
is due to increasing per-capita usage by the customers in the
area. In some cases, the slow, steady trend is a reduction over
time, due to improving appliance efficiency.
39. Growth Behavior as a Function of Spatial Resolution
Planners of the power supply to an entire region have no
need of specific geographic information on the locations of
loads, or the areas which are or are not growing rapidly. They
have no need of spatial resolution in their planning, for their
goal is to plan and operate sufficient power for the entire
region.
T&D planners, on the other hand, do have a need for
locational information in the planning, routing, design, and
Chapter 24 Characteristics
operation of their system. Facilities are utilized more
efficiently if they are sited correctly. The need for locational
detail in planning and engineering is called spatial resolution.
Spatial resolution requirements vary depending
application: feeder planning requires more detail on and is
more sensitive to changes in the location of loads, than
transmission planning. Table 8 gives typical range of spatial
resolutions (knowledge of load as a function of location) that
work well in T&D planning. The table indicates that
knowledge of how load density, and load growth are usually
needed to match equipment locations so that economy and
reliability are maximized to the load. Resolution as used in
the table refers to the width of a square area used for load
studies, and within which reliable information on load
locations is not available.
TABLE 8—TYPICALSPATIALRESOLUTION(LOCATIONALDETAIL) FOR
PLANNINGAS A FUNCTIONOF SYSTEMLEVEL
Due to the “S” curve growth dynamics described earlier,
observed load growth behavior varies as a function of the
spatial resolution used in load analysis and planning. Load
growth behavior will appear to be different simply depending
on the small area size used to collect and analyze growth.
Fig. 32—Annual peak load of a large city over a twenty-five
period, after correction for weather and other anomalies.
To understand this phenomenon, and to see how and why it
occurs, it is useful to consider a diagram of the annual peak
load of a growing city of perhaps 2,000,OOO population, as
illustrated by Fig. 32. For simplicity’s sake, assume that there
have been no irregularities in the historical load trend due to
weather, changing economy, or shifts in service territory
boundaries. This leaves a smooth growth trend, one that shows
of Distribution Loads 805
steady annual load growth over a long period of time, as
shown. Except for weather and economy, many cities have in
fact grown steadily in this manner: Denver, Phoenix,
on Indianapolis, Bangkok Caracas, and Rabat, to name just a few.
Imagine dividing the metropolitan area illustrated in Fig. 32
into quadrants. Each quadrant would still be very large (in a
city like Atlanta or Houston, nearly a thousand square miles).
If the exact load history of each quadrant could be plotted, all
would be slightly different in amount of load and rate of
growth, but all would still have a fairly smooth, continuous
trend. This is shown in Fig. 33.
Fig. 33—Quadrants also display smooth, long-term growth trends.
But if this process of hierarchical sub-division continues,
splitting each sub-quadrant into sub-sub-quadrants, then into
sub-sub-sub-quadrants, and so forth, “S” curve load growth
trends will begin to be discernible as the common
characteristic of growth, when the sub-division reaches a size
of about 16 square miles (square areas 4 miles, or 6 km, on a
side). Most long-term trends at this spatial resolution would
begin to display slight “kinks,” something like those shown in
Fig. 34 - an “S” curve, rather than a smooth, long-term steady
growth pattern.
Fig 34—Areas of about 16 square miles (areas 4 miles on a side)
display discernible “S curves” load growth behavior . The city
grows at a steady rate (Fig. 32) because the growth ramps of
year different areas occur at different times.
Carrying the sub-division to the extreme, one could
imagine dividing a city into areas so small that each contained
only one building. At this level of spatial resolution, annual
peak load growth would be characterized by the ultimate “S”
curve, a step function. Although the timing would vary from
one small area to the next, the basic load growth history of a
small area of such size could be described very easily. For
many years the area had no load. Then, usually within less
than a year, construction started and finished (for example’s
806 Characteristics
sake, imagine that a house is built in this very small area), and
a significant load established. For many years thereafter, this
annual load peak of the small area varies only slightly - the
house is there and no further construction occurs.
The quantitative behavior of the “S curve” growth
characteristics will depend somewhat on the spatial resolution
(small area size used). There are three important interactions
with between growth characteristics and spatial resolution.
I. The YY curve behavior becomes sharper as the service
territory is subdivided into smaller and smaller areas.
The smaller the small areas being studied (the higher the
spatial resolution) the more definite and sharp the “S”
curve behavior exhibited, as shown in Fig. 35.
Quantitative behavior of this phenomena depends on
growth rate, demographics, and other factors unique to a
region, and varies from one utility to another.
Qualitatively, all utility systems exhibit this behavior:
“S” curve load trend becomes sharper as area size is
reduced.
2. As the utility service territory is subdivided into smaller
and smaller areas, the number of small areas that have
no load and will never have any load increases. When
viewed on a square mile basis (640 acre resolution) there
will likely be very few “completely” vacant areas in a
city such as Phoenix or Atlanta or Caracas: square miles
that are completely devoid of electric load.
But if examined on an acre-parcel basis, a significant
portion of land, perhaps as much as 15%, will be
“vacant” as far as electric load is concerned, and will
stay that way. Some of these vacant areas will be inside
city, state, or federal parks, others will be wilderness
areas, cemeteries or golf courses, and many other merely
‘useless land’ - areas on very steep or otherwise unusable
terrain.
3. The amount of load growth that occurs within previously
vacant areas increases as small area size decreases. If
the load growth of a city such as Denver or Houston
were analyzed over the period 1980 to 1990, using a
small area size of nine square miles (areas three miles to
a side), almost all of the load growth during the period
would have occurred in areas that had noticeable
amounts of load in 1980.
By contrast, if those same regions were examined at a
2.5 acre spatial resolution (small areas l/l6 mile to a
side) nearly half of the decade’s load growth would be
found to have occurred in small areas that had no
significant load in 1980 - areas that were vacant.
Thus, the observable dynamics of load growth appear
somewhat different depending on the amount of where detail
used in the load analysis. As spatial resolution is changed, the
character of the observed load growth changes, purely due to
the change in resolution.
At low resolution (i.e., when using “large” small areas) load
growth appears to behave as steady, long-term trends in areas
with some load already established. Few, if any areas, are
completely devoid of load. By contrast, if examined at high
of Distribution Loads Chapter 24
spatial resolution, growth is usually a short, intense period of
development. It usually happens in areas where there was no
previous load, and it does not always occur - many areas stay
vacant.
The three changes in growth character discussed above
occur on(v because spatial resolution of data collection and
analysis changes. The character of the load growth itself does
not change, only the way it appears to the planner. By asking
for more spatial information (the “where” of the T&D planning
need) the very appearance of load growth itself, changes.
Fig. 35—As small area size for the load growth analysis is
decreased, the average small area load growth behavior becomes
more and more a sharp “S” curve behavior. (vertical scales of the
four plots shown are different, with the full range in each case
indicating 100% of the fully-developed load level).
40. Regions “Fill Up” In A Discontinuous Manner
Fig. 36 shows another way to examine the “S” curve
growth behavior at the distribution level, and reveals another
implication of this growth behavior. Shown is the growth of
electric load in a region of about 24 square miles on the
outskirts of a large, growing metropolitan area, over a 12-year
period. Individual land parcels within this area generally
follow the “S” curve growth behavior pattern, with a growth
ramp (period from 10% to 90% of eventual saturated load) of
about three years at the l/4 square mile resolution. The
complete area, however, has a growth ramp of about 15 years.
The development of load within this area is geographically
discontinuous, with the timing of various parcels displaying a
somewhat random pattern. While growth usually develops
from the southwest outward (this area is on the northeast edge
of the metropolitan area), the timing of when a parcel of land
begins to develop is somewhat random. Growth does not
develop as a smooth trend outward, but instead appears to be a
semi-random process. Once load has filled up one parcel, it
does not automatically proceed to the next in line, but may
jump to another nearby area. Thus, early in the process of
growth for this whole area, some parcels develop to saturation
on its far edge early in the process. The most unpredictable
aspect of small area load growth is the exact timing of parcel
development.
In contrast, experience and research has shown that the
eventual load level in most small areas can be predicted fairly
well, as can the expected duration of growth ramps (see Willis,
 Chapter 24 Characteristics
1996). However, the exact timing of growth appears to be
, somewhat random, at least as viewed from apriori information
likely to be available to the planner. Implications for T&D
expansion are clear. The system cannot be extended
incrementally outward from the southeast as load grows.
Instead, substation siting and feeder expansion must deal with
delivering “full load density” to an increasing number of
neighborhoods scattered over the entire region, that develop
geographically into a higher overall density. This means that
full feeder capability (maximum designed load and maximum
designed distance) may be needed far sooner than predicted by
the “gradually increasing density” concept.
Fig. 36—Load grows as developing parcels of land. As a region
fills in with load, individual parcels develop very quickly, but
often leave vacant areas between them. The utility may have to
build a majority of the primary feeder lines that kill de needed
eventually, long before a majority of the growth has developed.
Such expansion is difficult to accomplish economically:
feeders must be extended over much of this area early in the
12-year period, so the utility can serve the widely scattered
pockets of high load density. Great capacity is not needed at
that time, because the overall load is not high. However, a
good portion of all the routes eventually needed is required
of Distribution Loads 807
early, in order to reach these disparate locations. An economic
dilemma develops because the utility will eventually need a
good deal of capacity in these routes when the load fills in the
area, but planners do not want to incur the cost of building now
for load levels not expected for 1O-12 years. The challenge is
to find a way to expand the system without building a majority
of the routes early, or having to build many long routes with
higher capacity than will be needed for years.
41. “Putting Out Fires” Is the Norm in T&D Expansion
T&D planners often speak about “putting out fires” -
having to develop plans and install equipment and facilities on
a tight time schedule, starting at the last moment, without
proper time to develop comprehensive plans or coordinate area
development overall. A point illustrated here is that the load
growth aspect of this situation is the norm: rapid growth that
starts with little warning, fills in an area relatively quickly, and
then moves elsewhere, not only happens on a regular basis, but
is the normal mechanism of growth. The “S Curve” growth
characteristic, its tendency to be sharper in smaller areas, and
the semi-random, discontinuous pattern of load development
described above, are very general characteristics that affect all
power systems. Load development in a small area almost
always begins with little long-term warning, grows at a rapid
rate to saturation, and then moves to other areas, usually near
by, but often not immediately adjacent.
This growth characteristic is the basic process that drives
T&D expansion, equipment additions, and the planning and
engineering process. T&D engineers will never change the
nature of load growth and development. The recommended
approach is to develop planning, engineering, and equipment
procurement procedures that are compatible with this process.
These include:
a) Master plan development based on projected area
development. As noted above, the eventual load density
for any small area, and the overall pattern of development
for a region, can be predicted with reasonable accuracy
fairly far in advance. Thus, long range plans optimized to
the expected pattern of development can be developed.
b) Use of modular system layouts for transmission,
substations, feeders and service (LV) parts of the system,
that permit modular expansion on an incremental parcel
basis. Some types of layout are more expandable on a
“fill in the parts” basis that others. In particular, the
growing use of multi-branched rather than large-trunk
feeder layouts is one reaction to this situation. Such
feeders can be expanded on a short range basis, to cover a
growing area as needed, yet still fit into an optimized
long-range plan.
c), Organization of the planning, engineering, and
construction process with short lead times for
implementation. Given that a long-range master plan
exists for an area, the key to success is a short start-up and
lead time for engineering of the details and project
implementation, once development begins.
808 Characteristics of Distribution Loads Chapter 24

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