Reliability Indices PDF

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CHAPTER 4
SUBSTATION CONFIGURATION RELIABILITY

ESTIMATION BY SUCCESSFUL PATH METHOD
Substations are integral parts of a power system. They are

important links between the generating station, transmission systems, distribution
systems and the loads at consumer level. The electrical voltage is stepped up
and down to higher and lower voltage levels several times on its way from the
generation station to the consumer at the substation. An electrical substation is
an assembly of electrical components including bus bars, circuit breakers,
power transformers, instrument transformers, surge arrestors or lightning
arresters, isolators or disconnecting switches, neutral grounding equipments,
power line carrier communication equipments, line traps, tuning units,
coupling capacitor ,protection systems, earthling switches, earth electrodes,
shunt reactors , shunt capacitances, series reactors, series capacitors, isolated
phase bus systems, metering, control and relay panels and d.c. battery system.
The substation’s important functions are establishment of economic

load distribution, protection of transmission systems, controlling the power
exchange, ensuring steady state and transient stability, prevention of loss in
synchronism by load shedding, maintaining the system frequency within ac-
ceptable limits, data transmission via power line carrier communication for
the purpose of network monitoring, control, protection and ensuring reliable
supply to the consumers.
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The substations are classified in various ways as follows:
x Outdoor substation or in door substation based on location
x E.H.V. substation, H.V. substation, M.V. substation and L.V.

substation based on voltage levels
x Grid substation or Distribution substation based on application
x Conventional air insulated outdoor substation, or SF6 Gas

Insulated Substation (GIS), or hybrid substations having
combination of the above two based on design.
4.1 AIR INSULATED SUBSTATION (AIS)
AIS has galvanized steel structures for supporting the equipments,

insulators, incoming and outgoing transmission lines. Circuit breakers, isola-
tors, transformers, current transformers, potential transformers are installed in
the outdoor. Bus bars are supported on the post insulators or strain Insulators.
This substation occupies large area.
One of the most important innovations in electrical engineering in

the 20th century is the launch of gas insulated switchgear in 1965 since a
conventional air insulated substation occupied large area. The dimensions
were reduced from air insulated substation due to the introduction of Gas
Insulated Substation (GIS) technology. The maintenance intervals are also
reduced to once in every ten years. This had improved availability and
reliability with lowered operating costs. The SF6 gas enclosure has made the
switchgear insensitive to pollution like the corrosive effects of salt, sand and
snow.
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4.2 GAS INSULATED SUBSTATION (GIS)
The size of substation reduces to 8% to 10% of the Air Insulated

Substation since circuit breakers, current Transformers, voltage transformers,
bus bars, earth switches, surge arresters and isolators are in the form of metal
enclosed SF6 gas modules. These modules are assembled in accordance with
the required design. The various live parts are enclosed in the metal
enclosures containing SF6 gas at high pressure. GIS sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)
gas. Aluminum is used for the enclosure. This assures freedom from corrosion
and low weight of the equipment. The low weight ensures minimal floor
loading. Gas tight bushings allow subdivision of the bay into a number of
separate gas compartments. Each gas compartment is provided with its own
gas monitoring equipment, a rupture diaphragm and filter material. The static
filter in the gas compartments absorb moisture and decompose it. The rupture
diaphragm prevents build up of high pressure in the enclosure. A gas di-
verter nozzle on the rupture diaphragm ensures that the gas is expelled in a
defined direction in the event of bursting, thus ensuring that the operating per-
sonnel are not endangered. All the modules are connected to one another by
means of flanges. The gas tightness of the flange connections is assured by
proven O ring seals. Temperature related changes in the length of the enclo-
sure and installation tolerances are compensated by bellows type expansion
joints.
Circuit breaker module has a central element of the gas insulated

switchgear .The three pole circuit breaker module enclosures comprises of the
two main components, interrupter unit and operating mechanism. The spring
stored operating mechanism provides the force for opening and closing the
circuit breaker. It is installed in compact corrosion free aluminum housing.
The entire operating mechanism unit is completely isolated from the SF6 gas
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compartments. Antifriction bearings and maintenance free charging mecha-

nism ensures decades of reliable operation.
The functions of a disconnect switch and an earthling switch are

combined in a three position switching device. The moving contact either
closes the isolating gap or connects the high voltage conductor to the fixed
contact of the earthling switch. Integral mutual inter locking of the two func-
tions is achieved as a result of this design An insulated connection to the fixed
contact of the earthling switch is provided outside the enclosure for test pur-
poses. In the third neutral position neither the disconnect switch contact nor
the earthling switch contact is closed. The three poles of a bay are mutually
coupled and all the three poles are operated at the same time by a motor. The
gas compartments are constantly observed by means of density monitors with
integrated indicators.
4.3 HYBRID SUBSTATION
Hybrid substations are the combination of both AIS and GIS

Some bays in a substation are gas insulated type and some are air insulated
type. The design is based on convenience, local conditions, area availability
and the economics of cost implications.
An important function performed by a substation is switching.

Switching events may be planned or unplanned. A transmission line or other
component may need to be de-energized for maintenance or for
commissioning of equipment. To maintain reliability of supply, no one ever
brings down its whole system for maintenance. In addition, the function of the
substation is to isolate the faulted portion of the system in the shortest
possible time since fault tends to cause equipment damage and destabilize the
whole system.
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The type of high voltage switching scheme may be selected after a

careful study of the flexibility and protection needed in the station for the
initial installation, and also when the station is developed to its probable
maximum capacity. In an ideal substation all circuits and equipments would
be duplicated such that following a fault or during maintenance, one
connection remains available. Practically this is not feasible since the cost of
implementing such a design is very high. Methods have been adopted to
achieve a compromise between reliability of supply and cost. There are four
categories of substation that give varying reliability of supply:
x Category 1
No outage is necessary within the substation for either maintenance

or fault conditions.
x Category 2
Short outage is necessary to transfer the load to an alternative

circuit for maintenance or fault conditions.
x Category 3
Loss of a circuit or section of the substation due to fault or

maintenance.
x Category 4
Loss of the entire substation due to fault or maintenance.
4.4 SUBSTATION CONFIGURATION
Substation configuration implies different methods employed to

connect electrical circuits in the power system to transfer the electrical power
in reliable manner. It helps in delivering the electrical power to power system
if any part of the system is faulty or under maintenance.
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Substations use different types of bus bar arrangements, which

depend upon the application, reliability of the supply and cost of installation.
In every substation, bus bar plays a pivotal role to connect different circuits.
However ,switching is possible in the power system with the help of circuit
breakers and isolators.
4.4.1 Considerations for Selection of Bus Bar Arrangement
Different types of bus bar arrangements are employed based on the

voltage, reliability of the supply, flexibility in transmitting power and cost.
The other aspects considered for designing the bus bars arrangements are:
x Simplicity in the design
x Maintenance of different equipment without interruption of

the power supply
x Feasibility in expansion
x Economical installation and operational cost
4.4.2 Different Bus Bar Arrangements
Some of the switching schemes used by bus bar arrangements

employed in the substations are listed below:
x Single bus-bar configuration
x Sectionalized single bus bar configuration
x Breaker and a half configuration
x Double bus, double breaker configuration

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The substation configuration is investigated since the recent trend

in urban area is to improve the system reliability by adjustment of substation
bus bar configuration with hybrid switchgear within the same space
constraint. The new technique of Successful Path Method (SPM) is proposed
to analyze the reliability of various substation configurations. The results are
compared with the Cut Set Method of Daniel Nack (2005).
The author has published a paper on “A Novel Approach for

Reliability Analysis of Power System Configurations”, International Journal
of College Sciences in India. vol 3, pp 49-72, July 2008.
4.5 DANIEL NACK METHOD
Daniel Nack had presented the minimal cut set method based on the
criteria of continuity or availability of power supply. It considers each failure
state as an exclusive state, so that the probability of occurrence of system
failure is the sum of all the failure event probability. The components
modeled are transformers, bus bars, breakers and outgoing lines from
substation. The incoming lines were assumed to have 100% reliability for
developing substation indices. Daniel Nack (2005) had proposed the
substation component failure rate value as shown in Table 4.1. These are
converted into the corresponding reliability value. The Reliability of the
component is given by the relationship as per equation (2.10).
R(t) = eȜt (4.1)
where
R(t) = Reliability
Ȝ = Failure rate
t = Time period
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Table 4.1 Substation component reliability indices
Total component failure Total reliability per year

Component
rate per year (O) (R) ,R= e-Ot
Line 0.046 0.955041962
Transformer 0.015 0.985111939
Breaker 0.006 0.994017964
Bus Bar 0.001 0.999000499
The existing method of Daniel Nack had estimated the indices by

cut set method for the four substation configurations including line failures.
These are shown in Table 4.2.
Table 4.2 Daniel Nack reliability indices
Total component Total reliability per

Configuration failure rate per year
year (O) (R) , R= e-Ot
Single bus bar 0.0549 0.94657901
Sectionalized single bus bar 0.0459 0.95513747
Breaker and a half bus bar 0.00356 0.99644632
Double bus double breaker 0.00572 0.994296328
4.6 PROPOSED SUCCESSFUL PATH METHOD (SPM)
Boundaries are required to be established before proceeding with

the reliability evaluation of the substation configurations. In this dissertation
work, the boundary is constructed within the substation for reliability
assessment. The components modeled are transformers, bus bars and
breakers.
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4.6.1 Modeling
There are number of methods described in the standard literature to

evaluate the availability of the power system. This work considers the
availability and unavailability as a two state up or down model to represent all
components in the simplest way for the reliability assessment. The level of
performance criteria evaluated is based on the total failure rate per year of
each component. This is converted into reliability or availability of substation
components .The repair time and its duration are ignored. Sudden opening of
circuit breaker online, without any command is known as passive failure. If
the circuit breaker fails to open after the command from the protective relay,
then it is known as stuck condition of breaker. If many circuit breaker failures
occur simultaneously, then it is known an overlapping failure. In modern
substations, the possibilities of multiple failure events are rare due to the
transition from AIS to superior performing GIS. Hence, this dissertation work
considers total failure rate per year occurring in isolation separately for each
component in the substation. The proposed method of SPM for receiving
continuous power supply is expressed using Boolean logic .All the developed
reliability values for the various substation configurations are estimated from
component values listed in the Table 4.1.
The basic difference between FTA and SPM is the direction of the
analysis. A FTA starts with the undesired event and traces backward to the
causes. The fault tree ends with initiating basic events and failures that are
identified as the primary causes. Success path is associated with the degree of
its usefulness. A SPM starts with an initiating cause and traces forward the
resulting consequences. This forward stepping is repeated for different
selected initiating causes. The end consequences can vary depending on the
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initiating cause. Thus the principle of SPM modeling is to identify in each

step the immediate cause of success, which is to be analyzed.
Most failure probabilities are small (less than 0.1), which uses
approximations when combining failure probabilities. Success probabilities
are usually close to 1.0, these approximations cannot be used and the solution
of success models are more accurate than the solution of failure models.
The single bus bar substation, sectionalized bus bar substation,

breaker and a half bus bar sub station and double bus bar double breaker
substations are analyzed for reliability estimation with the following
assumptions:
x Boundaries are defined within the perimeter of the substations.
x Reliability is defined as the ability of a component to perform a

required function under given environmental and operational
conditions for a specified period of time. The term component is
used to denote any subsystem that can be considered as an
entity. A required function will be necessary to provide a
specified service. The reliability of the components is assessed
based on the required function under consideration.
x Set theory is used for event A and event B indicating the

successful paths in the same substation system domain(s) whose
universal set (U) is shown in Figures 4.1 and 4.2.
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A B
U
Figure 4.1 A OR B (A B)
A B
Figure 4.2 A AND B (A B)
x A union of set A and set B consists of all components which belong

to either A or B as shown in Figure 4.1. The algebraic operation
with probabilities A B for two A and B events, which are
independent high probability events are given by
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(A B) = P (A) + P(B) – P(A). P (B) (4.3)
x This means that the occurrence of set A has no influence on the

successful occurrence or non successful occurrence of set B and
vice versa. In other words, if two successful paths have components
which are operating in parallel and are isolated from one another,
then the success of one event does not affect the success of the
other event. Thus, the success paths of the components of all events
are independent.
x The intersection of set A set and set B consists of only elements,

which belong to both sets A and B. This is denoted by A B as
shown in Figure 4. 2.
x The algebraic operation with probabilities A B for two A and B

events, which are independent high probability events are given by
P (A B) = P(A) P(B). This is known as the

multiplication rule for probabilities.
x The development of a quantitative success model is based on the

need to get the best possible estimate for the top success event
probability.
x The success modeling for successful path method includes the

procedure and nomenclature by which events and gates are named
for the specific success of the top event. The process of SPM gives
the information about nature of the basic event and the number of
such events in the combined set of the occurrence of the top event
showing the quantitative importance of each basic event
contributing to the top event.
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x Each set is evaluated by probability of its occurrence and it’s

inter relationships.
x The quantitative results are interpreted to provide the potential

impact upon the success of the top event.
x The immediate cause concept of the successful immediate steps is

determined from the necessary and sufficient occurrence of the next
sequence of its events. The final successful event is achieved
proceeding up the success tree continuously transferring the success
mechanism to success mode till the success tree is completed. The
success mechanisms are evaluated using two basic types of gates,
the OR gate and the AND gate.
x The reliable supply is available at the High Voltage transmission

line feeders L1 or L2 in the substations as shown in Figures
4.3- 4.17.
x The bus bars, breakers, transformers and lines are considered as

components in the sub-station as shown in Figures 4.3- 4.17. They
are expressed as HV bus no.1, HV bus no.2, LV bus, breakers B1,
B2, B3, B4, B5, B6, B7, B8, B9, B10, B11, B12, B13, B14, B15, B16, B17,
B18, B19, transformers T1 and T2. The substation component
reliability values are substituted from Table 4.1 Each component is
checked for meeting its two criteria. The first criterion checks its
healthy status. If a component is healthy then it can be used. In
other words, it will allow the current to flow. The second criterion
checks whether the current flow is available to the component. If
these two criteria are full filled then the component forms an AND
gate, whose current output is available.
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x Considering the worst case, one of the bus bar is functioning

satisfactorily out of the available two bus bar units as shown in
Figures 4.3- 4.17.
x Considering the worst case, one of the transformer is functioning

satisfactorily out of the available two transformer units as shown in
Figures 4.3- 4.17.
4.6.2 Single Bus Bar Substation
L1 L2
B1 B2
HV Bus
B3 B4
T1 T2
LV Bus
Figure 4.3 Single bus bar configuration
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A single bus bar substation configuration consists of

transformers T1and T2. These transformers are connected in parallel between
the low voltage bus bar (LV bus) and high voltage bus bar (HV bus) through
breakers B3 and B4. The high voltage transmission lines L1 and L2 are con-
nected to the high voltage bus bar (HV bus) through breakers B1 and B2. The
single bus bar substation is shown in Figure 4.3.
This is the simplest bus bar scheme available, which consists of

single bus bar connected to the transformers and load feeders. All the feeders
are connected by circuit breakers and set of isolators. This arrangement helps
to remove the connecting equipments for maintenance by opening the circuit
breaker and isolator contacts.
Single bus bar configuration is lower in installation cost. It requires

less maintenance. It is simple in construction. However, single bus bar
configuration is not very reliable since incase of fault on bus bar the feeders
L1 and L2 connected to bus bar loose supply.
The single bus bar substation reliability is estimated for various

modes of operations as follows:
Mode 1
Successful operation of the single bus bar substation.
The logic for single bus bar configuration during the operation of
transformer T1, when T2 transformer is not available is shown in Figure 4.4.
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Current Output
AND
AND
Current flow to LV bus

LV bus allows current to flow
AND
AND
Transformer (T1) allows current to flow

Current flow to transformer (T1)
AND
AND
Current flow to breaker (B3) Breaker (B3) allows current to flow
AND
AND
Current flow to HV bus HV bus allows current to flow

OR
Current flow to HV bus Current flow to HV bus
AND AND
AND AND
Current flow to Breaker (B1) Current flow to Breaker(B2) Breaker (B2) allows Current to flow
B1allows current to flow
AAND B1allows current to flow AND

AND
Current flow to line L2 Line (L2) allows Current to flow

Current flow to Line (L1)
Line L1 allows Current to flow
Figure 4.4 Logic for single bus bar configuration during T1 operation
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A reliability value is estimated in mode 1 by substituting the substation

component reliability indices from Table 4.1
The estimated value of reliability in mode 1
= [L1 B1 L2 B2) HV Bus B3 T1 LV Bus
= [L1* B1 L2*B2] *HV Bus* B3.*T1 *LV Bus
= [L1* B1 + L2*B2 – L1* B1 *L2* B2] *HV Bus* B3*T1 *LV Bus
= 0.974753298
Mode 2
Successful operation of the single bus bar substation
transformer T2, when transformer T1 is not available is shown in Figure 4.5.

= [L1*B1 L2*B2] *HV Bus* B3* T2 *LV Bus
= [L1*B1 + L2*B2 – L1*B1*L2.*B2] *HV Bus*B3*T1*LV Bus
= 0.974753298
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Current Output
AND
AND

AND
AND
Transformer (T2) allows current to flow

Current flow to transformer (T2)
AND
AND
AND
AND
Current flow to HV bus HV bus allows current to flow

OR
Current flow to HV bus Current flow to HV bus
AND AND
AND AND
Current flow to Breaker (B1) Current flow to Breaker(B2) Breaker (B2) allows Current to flow
B1allows current to flow
AAND AND
AND
Current flow to line L2 Line (L2) allows Current to flow

Current flow to Line (L1)
Figure 4.5 Logic for single bus bar configuration during T2 operation
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Mode 3
Operation of single bus bar configuration in
Mode 1 Mode 2.
Model 3 is a logic of operation in mode 1 OR mode 2.
The reliability value in mode 3
= 0.974753298 0.974753298
= 0.999362604
A reliability value of 0.999362604 is obtained for single bus bar

configuration.
4.6.3 Sectionalized Single Bus Bar Substation
Sectionalized single bus bar substation configuration is shown in

Figure 4.6.
L1 L2
B1 B2
HV Bus HV Bus
B5
B3 B4
T1 T2
LV Bus LV Bus
Figure.4.6 Sectionalized single bus bar configuration

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In a sectionalized single bus bar configuration, the bus bar is split

into sections by means of a bus coupler (B5). A sectionalized single bus bar
configuration is flexible in operation. It is higher in reliability than single bus
bar configuration. Isolation of bus sections for maintenance is possible in this
scheme. However, it has a higher cost than a single bus bar configuration as
additional circuit breaker and isolator is required.
A logic for sectionalized single bus bar configuration during the

operation of transformer T1 is shown in Figure 4.4.
Mode 1
Successful operation of the sectionalized single bus bar substation.

The logic for single bus bar configuration during the operation of transformer
T1, when bus coupler B5 is on and transformer T2 is not available is shown in
Figure 4.4.
A reliability value is estimated in model 1 by substituting the

substation component reliability indices from Table 4.1
= [(L1 B1 L2 B2) HV Bus B3 T1 LV Bus
= [L1*B1 L2 *B2] *HV Bus* B3* T1 *LV Bus.
= [L1*B1 + L2*B2 – L1*B1*L2*B2] * HV Bus * B3 *T1 *LV Bus.
= 0.974753298
Mode 2
Successful operation of the sectionalized single bus bar substation

in Mode 2.
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transformer T2, when bus coupler is on and transformer T1 is not available is
shown in Figure 4.5.
A reliability value is estimated in mode 2 by substituting the

substation component reliability indices from Table 4.1
= [L1*B1 L2 * B2] HV Bus* B3*T2.* LV Bus.
= [L1*B1 + L2*B2 – L1*B1*L2.*B2] *HV Bus *B3 *T2 *LV Bus.
= 0.974753298
Mode 3
Operation of sectionalized single Bus Bar configuration in
Mode 1 Mode 2
Mode 3 is a logic of operation in Mode 1 OR Mode 2.
= Mode 1 Mode 2
= 0.974753298 0.974753298
= 0.999362604
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Mode 4
The successful operation of sectionalized single bus bar configuration

logic during B5 off in mode 4 is shown in Figure 4.7.
Current output
AND
Current flow to LV Bus LV Busallows current to flow
OR
AND AND
Current flow to (T2) )

Current flow to transformer (T1) Transformer (T2) Transformer allows
(T1) Transformer current to flow
allowsCurrent to flow
AND AND
Current flow to
Current flow
to Breaker (B3) (B3 )Breaker allows breaker (B4) Breaker (B4) allows current flow
current flow
AND
AND ANAND
AND
Current flow to HV Bus allows current

HV Bus allows HV Bus to flow
Current flow to
HV Bus Current to flow
AND
AND AND
Current flow to (B2) Breaker allows

Current flow to Breaker (B1) (B1)Breaker allows Breaker (B2)
currrent to flow
current toi flow
AND AND
Current flow in line (L2)

Current flow in line (L1) L2 Line allows Current to flow
(L1) Line allows current
to flow
Figure 4.7 Logic for Sectionalized Single bus bar configuration during
B5 off
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A reliability value is estimated in Mode 4 by substituting substation

= [(L1 B1 HV BUS B3 T1) (L2 B2 HV BUS B4

T2)] LV BUS.
= [(L1*B1*B3 *HV BUS *T1) (L2*B2*B4*HV BUS*T2) ]*LV

BUS
= 0.993917857
Mode 5
Model 5 is a logic of operation in Mode 3 OR Mode 4.
= Mode 3 Mode 4
= 0.999362604 0.993917857
= 0.99999612
The reliability value of 0.99999612 is obtained for sectionalized

single bus bar configuration.
4.6.4 Breaker and a Half Bus Bar Substation
The Breaker and a half bus bar configuration are shown in

Figure 4.8.
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L1 L2
HV Bus no 1
B6 B7
B8 B9
B10 B11
HV Bus no 2
T1 T2
LV Bus
Figure 4.8 Breaker and half bus bar configuration
Figure 4.8 shows two main buses, which are normally energized.
There are three circuit breakers and two feeder circuits between the buses.
This arrangement allows for breaker maintenance without interruption of
service. A fault on either bus may cause no feeder interruption. This
configuration has high reliability, operational flexibility, capability of isolating
any circuit breaker either of the main bus for maintenance without service
interruption. However it has higher cost and protection and control schemes
are more complex
Mode 1
Successful operation logic for breaker and a half bus bar configuration
during transformer T1 and HV bus bar no 1 in operation, when HV bus No 2
and transformer T2 are not available is shown in Figure 4.9
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Current Output
AND
Current flow to LV Bus LV Bus allows current to flow
AND
Current flow to (T1) Transformer

(T1)Transformer allows to current flow
AND
Current flow to (B8) Breaker (B8) Breaker allows current to flow
OR
Current flow to (B8)
AND
Current flow to Breaker (B8) Current flow to Breaker (B6)

(B6) Breaker allows current
to flow
AND
Current flow to HV Bus no 1

HV Bus no 1 allows current to flow
AND
Current flow to Breaker (B7) (B7) Breaker allows current to flow
AND AND
Current flow to Line (L1) Current flow to (L2) Line allows current to flow
(L1) Line allows current to flow Line (L2)
Figure.4.9 Logic for breaker and half bus bar configuration during T1
and HV bus bar no1 in operation

= [L1 L2 B7 HV BUS no 1 B6] B8 T1 LV bus
= [L1 L2 *B7 *HV Bus no 1 *B6] *B8 *T1 *LV BUS
= 0.999000499
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Mode 2
Successful operation of logic for Breaker and a half bus bar

configuration during transformer T2 and HV Bus bar no 1 in operation, when
HV bus bar no 2 and transformer T1 are not available is shown in Figure 4.10.
Current Output
AND
Current flow to LV Bus

LV Bus allows current to flow
AND
Current flow to Transformer (T 2) (T2) Transformer allows current to flow
AND
Current flow to Breaker (B9) (B9) Breaker allows current to flow
OR
Current to Breaker (B9)
AND
(Current to flow to Breaker (B7) (B7) Breaker allows

current to flow
Current flow to Breaker (B9) AND
(Current to flow to HV Bus no 1 HV Bus no 1allows current

to flow
AND
(Current to flow to Breaker (B6) (B6) Breaker allows current

to flow
AND AND
(Current to flow to Line (L1) (L1) Line allows current to flow

Current flow to Line (L2) (L2) allows current to flow
Figure 4.10 Logic for breaker and half bus bar configuration during T2
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A reliability value is estimated in mode 2 by substituting the

substation component reliability indices from Table 4.1.
= [L2 L1 B6 HV BUS no 1 B7] B9 T2 LV bus
= [L2 L1 *B6 *HV Bus no 1* B7] *B9 *T2 *LV BUS
= 0.999000499
Mode 3
Operation of Breaker and half configuration in
Mode 1 Mode 2
Mode 3 is a logic of operation in mode 1 OR mode 2.
= Mode 1 Mode 2
= 0.999000499 0.999000499
= 0.999999001
Mode 4

HV bus bar no.1 and transformer T2 are not available is shown in Figure 4.11.
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Current Output
AND
Current flow to LV Bus LV bus allows current to flow
AND
Current flow to Transformer (T 1) (T1) transformer allows current to flow
OR
Current flow to Transformer

to transformer (T1)
AND
Current flow to Transformer (T 1)
Current flow to Breaker (B10) (B10) Breaker allows

current to flow
AND
Current flow to HV Bus no2 HV bus no 2 allows

current flow
AND

current to flow
AND
AND
Current flow to Breaker (B8) Current flow to Breaker (B9)

(B11)Breaker allows current to flow
(B8) Breaker allows current flow
AND
AND
Current flow to Line (L1) (L1) Line allows current to flow (L2) Line allows current to flow
Current flow to Line L2
and HV bus bar no2 operation

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= (L1 B8 L2 B9 B11 HV bus no 2 B10) T1 LV bus
= (L1*B8 L2 *B9 *B11 *HV bus no 2 *B10) T1 *LV bus
= 0.980989071
Mode 5

HV bus bar no 1 and transformer T1 are not available is shown in Figure 4.12.
Current Output
AND
Current flow to LV bus LV bus allows current to flow
AND
Current flow to Transformer (T2) (T 2) Transformer allows current to flow
OR
AND
Current flow to Breaker (B11)
(B11) Breaker allows
current to flow
AND
Current flow to HV Bus no 2 HV bus no 2 allows

current flow
AND

current to flow
AND AND
Current flow to 9
Current flow to Breaker (B8) (B8) allows current to flow
Breaker (B9) (B9) Breaker allows
current to flow
AND AND
2) (L1) Line allows current to flow

Current flow to Line (L2) Current flow to Line (L1)
(L2) Line allows current to flow
89

component reliability indices from Table 4.1.
= (L2B9 L1 B8 B10 HV Bus no 2 B11) T2 LV BUS
= (L2 B9 L1 *B8 *B10 *HV Bus No2 *B11)* T2 * LV BUS
= 0.980989071
Mode 6
Mode 4 Mode 5
= Mode 4 Mode 5
= 0.980989071 0.980989071
= 0.999638585
Mode 7
Mode 3 Mode 6
Mode 7 is a logic of operation in Mode 3 OR Mode 5. The reliability

value in mode 7
90
= Mode 3 Mode 6
= 0.999999001 0.999638585
= 1.0
A reliability value of 1 is obtained for breaker and a half bus bar

configuration.
4.6.5 Double Bus Bar Double Breaker Substation
A Double Bus bar double breaker configuration is shown in

Figure 4.13
L1 L2
HV Bus no 1
B12 B13 B14 B15
B16 B17 B18 B19
HV Bus no 2
T1 T2
LV Bus
Figure 4.13 Double bus bar double breaker configuration

91
Figure 4.13 consists of two main buses, both are normally

energized. Between the main buses are two breakers and one circuit. This
arrangement allows for any breaker to be removed from service without
interruption to its circuit. A fault on either of the main bus may not cause
circuit outage. A breaker failure will result in the loss of only one circuit. A
double bus bar double breaker configuration has higher reliability and operational
flexibility. However it is highest in cost due to the requirement of two breakers per
circuit.
Current Output
AND

AND
Current flow to transformer (T1) Transformer (T1) allows current to flow
AND
AND
Current flow to HV bus HV bus no.1 allows current to

flow
OR
Current flow to HV bus no1

AND AND
Breaker ( B15) allows Current to flow

Current flow to Breaker ( B12)
B12 allows current
to flow
AND AND

Current flow to Line L1 Line L1 allows Current
L to flow
Figure 4.14 Logic for Double bus bar double breaker configuration
during T1 and HV bus no 1 in operation
92
Mode 1
Successful operation logic for double bus bar and double breaker
configuration during transformer T1 and HV Bus bar no 1 in operation when
HV bus bar 2 and transformer T2 are not available is shown in figure 4.14. A
reliability value is estimated in mode 1 by substituting the substation component
reliability indices from Table 4.1
The estimated value of reliability in Mode 1
= (L1 B12 L2 B15) HV BUS no 1 B13 T1 LV Bus
= (L1*B12 L2*B15)*HV BUS No 1* B13 *T1* LV Bus.
= 0.974753298.
Mode 2
Successful operational logic for double bus bar and double breaker
configuration during transformer T2 in operation and HV Bus bar no 1 when,
HV bus bar no 2 and transformer T1 are not available is shown in figure 4.15.

The estimated value of reliability in Mode 2
= (L1 B12 L2 B15) HV bus no1 B14 T2 LV bus.
= (L1 *B12 L2 *B15) *HV bus no 1* B14 *T2 *LV bus.
= 0.974753298.
93
Current Output
AND

AND
AND
AND
Current flow to HV bus HV bus no.1allows current to

flow
OR

AND AND
Current to flow to B15

Current flow to Breaker ( B12) Breaker ( B15) allows Current to flow
B12 allows current
to flow
AND AND

Current flow to Line L1 Line L1 allows Current
L to flow
Figure 4.15 Logic for Double bus bar double breaker configuration
during T2 and HV bus no 1 in operation
94
Mode 3
Mode 1 Mode 2
= Mode 1 Mode 2
= 0.974753298 0.974753298
= 0.999362605
Mode 4
bus bar no 1and transformer T2 are not available is shown in Figure 4.16.

= (L1 B16 L2 B19) HV bus no 2 B17 T1 LV bus.
= (L1 *B16 L2* B19) *HV bus no 2* B17.*T1 *LV bus.
= 0.974753298
95
Current Output
AND

AND
AND
AND
Current flow to HV bus HV bud no.2 allows current to flow

OR
Current flow to HV bus no 2

Current flow to HV bus no 2
AND AND

Current flow to Breaker (B16) Breaker (B19) allows Current to flow
B16 allows current to flow
AND AND
Line L2 allows Current to low
Line L1 allows current to flow
Figure 4.16 Logic for double bus bar double breaker configuration
during T1 and HV bus no2 in operation
Mode 5
configuration during transformer T2 and HV Bus bar no 2 in operation when
HV bus bar no. 1 and transformer T1 are not available is shown in
Figure 4.17.
96
Current Output
AND
Current flow to LV bus LV bus allows current to flow
AND
AND
Current flow to breaker (B18)

Breaker (B18) allows current to flow
AND
Current flow to HV bus HV bus no.2 allows current to flow

OR
Current flow to HV bus no 2 Current flow to HV bus no.2
AND AND

Current flow to Breaker (B16)
Breaker (B19) allows current to flow
B16 allows current to flow
AND AND

Current flow to Line L1 Line L1 allows current to flow Line L2 allows Current to flow
Figure 4.17 Logic for double bus bar double breaker configuration
during T2 and HV bus no2 in operation
97

= (L1 B16 L2 B19) HV BUS no 2 B18 T2 LV BUS
= (L1*B16 L2 *B19) *HV BUS no 2 *B18 *T2 *LV BUS.
= 0.974753298
Mode 6
Operation of double bus bar double breaker configuration in Mode

4 Mode 5
= Mode4 Mode 5
= 0.974753298 974753298
= 0.999362605
Mode 7
Operation of double bus bar double breaker configuration in

Mode 3 Mode 6
= Mode 3 Mode 6
98
= 0.999362605 0.999362605
= 0.999999594.
A reliability value of = 0.999999594 is obtained for double bus bar

double breaker configuration.
4.7 RESULT AND DISCUSSIONS
A comparison is done between the proposed and the convention

methods to establish the usefulness of the proposed SPM method.
4.7.1 Comparison of Proposed and Daniel Nack Method for Reliability

Assessment of Various Substation Configurations
Table 4.3 shows the comparison between the proposed SPM and
Daniel Nack method for reliability assessment of various substation
configurations.
Table 4.3 Proposed and Daniel Nack method for reliability values of
various substation configurations
Estimated
Estimating reliability
reliability value as per
Configuration value as per pro-
existing method
posed method
Breaker and a half bus bar 0.99644632 1.00000000

Double bus bar double breaker 0.994296328 0.999999594
Sectionalized single bus bar 0.95513747 0.99999612
Single bus bar 0.94657901 0.999362604
The proposed method estimates reliability value of 1 for one and a

half bus bar configuration, where as Daniel Nack method estimates a value of
0.99644632. The proposed method estimates reliability value of 0.999999594
99
for double bus bar double breaker configuration, whereas Daniel Nack
method estimates a value of 0.994296328. The proposed method estimates
reliability value of 0.99999612 for sectionalized single bus bar configuration,
whereas Daniel Nack method estimates a value of 0.95513747. The proposed
method estimates reliability value of 0.999362604 for single bus bar
configuration, where as Daniel Nack method estimates a value of 0.94657901.
Daniel Nack failure values for various substation configurations

were less than 0.01.Lower numerical values obtained for failure will tend to
encourage approximations. The failure values are converted to reliability
values for comparing with the proposed method. Therefore these minor
differences may be due to the effect of approximations. The proposed SPM
method has estimated reliability close to one and thus avoided approximations.
Hence, the proposed reliability estimates are more accurate. In addition,
proposed SPM has less computational time. It is easy to understand as it is
based on Boolean logic.
4.8 CONCLUSION
The proposed method of SCADA short term forecasting improves

load forecasting as given below.
x It uses 30 samples for estimating the short term load forecasting

in advance for the next 30 minutes on one minute interval. This
is an improvement over the other standard methods given in
literatures, where one sample is taken for one hour.
x The result shows consistent average variation of actual and

estimated load , which are very encouraging.
100
x MAPE value shows improvement in forecasting the load

compared to other method. Thus, the developed projection
statistics are useful and powerful diagnostic tool.
x The estimated frequency is computed at every point in real

time with reasonable accuracy. This has resulted in the
frequency stability of the system.
x A special feature of continuously self correcting mechanism

built in the proposed algorithm to assess the deviant points
gives better accuracy.
x It used a salient feature of maximum and minimum forecast

user points in the algorithm, which can be changed by a
forecaster due to the changes in weather. Thus it has improved
load forecasting accuracy compared to other conventional
methods.
The proposed method of SPM usefulness is given below:
x It uses a simple method of Boolean Logic for reliability

assessment of substation configuration.
x It requires less computational time than the existing method of

Daniel Nack.
x It is easier to understand and simple to implement.
x It has estimated reliability values accurately.
x The breaker and a half scheme are generally recommended in

the field, for continuity of power supply. The
proposed SPM method proves this field utility requirement by
estimating its reliability as 1.0.

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60

SUBSTATION CONFIGURATION RELIABILITY

Substations are integral parts of a power system. They are

The substation’s important functions are establishment of economic

The substations are classified in various ways as follows:

x Outdoor substation or in door substation based on location

x E.H.V. substation, H.V. substation, M.V. substation and L.V.

x Grid substation or Distribution substation based on application

x Conventional air insulated outdoor substation, or SF6 Gas

4.1 AIR INSULATED SUBSTATION (AIS)

AIS has galvanized steel structures for supporting the equipments,

One of the most important innovations in electrical engineering in

4.2 GAS INSULATED SUBSTATION (GIS)

The size of substation reduces to 8% to 10% of the Air Insulated

Circuit breaker module has a central element of the gas insulated

compartments. Antifriction bearings and maintenance free charging mecha-

The functions of a disconnect switch and an earthling switch are

4.3 HYBRID SUBSTATION

Hybrid substations are the combination of both AIS and GIS

An important function performed by a substation is switching.

The type of high voltage switching scheme may be selected after a

No outage is necessary within the substation for either maintenance

Short outage is necessary to transfer the load to an alternative

Loss of a circuit or section of the substation due to fault or

Loss of the entire substation due to fault or maintenance.

4.4 SUBSTATION CONFIGURATION

Substation configuration implies different methods employed to

Substations use different types of bus bar arrangements, which

4.4.1 Considerations for Selection of Bus Bar Arrangement

Different types of bus bar arrangements are employed based on the

x Simplicity in the design

x Maintenance of different equipment without interruption of

x Economical installation and operational cost

4.4.2 Different Bus Bar Arrangements

Some of the switching schemes used by bus bar arrangements

x Single bus-bar configuration

x Sectionalized single bus bar configuration

x Breaker and a half configuration

x Double bus, double breaker configuration

The substation configuration is investigated since the recent trend

The author has published a paper on “A Novel Approach for

4.5 DANIEL NACK METHOD

R(t) = eȜt (4.1)

Table 4.1 Substation component reliability indices

Total component failure Total reliability per year

The existing method of Daniel Nack had estimated the indices by

Table 4.2 Daniel Nack reliability indices

Total component Total reliability per

4.6 PROPOSED SUCCESSFUL PATH METHOD (SPM)

Boundaries are required to be established before proceeding with

There are number of methods described in the standard literature to

initiating cause. Thus the principle of SPM modeling is to identify in each

The single bus bar substation, sectionalized bus bar substation,

x Boundaries are defined within the perimeter of the substations.

x Reliability is defined as the ability of a component to perform a

x Set theory is used for event A and event B indicating the

Figure 4.2 A AND B (A  B)

x A union of set A and set B consists of all components which belong

(A  B) = P (A) + P(B) – P(A). P (B) (4.3)

x This means that the occurrence of set A has no influence on the

x The intersection of set A set and set B consists of only elements,

x The algebraic operation with probabilities A  B for two A and B

P (A  B) = P(A) P(B). This is known as the

R(t) = eȜt (4.1)

Figure 4.2 A AND B (A B)

(A B) = P (A) + P(B) – P(A). P (B) (4.3)

x The algebraic operation with probabilities A B for two A and B

P (A B) = P(A) P(B). This is known as the

= [L1 B1 L2 B2) HV Bus B3 T1 LV Bus

= [L1* B1 L2B2] HV Bus* B3.T1 LV Bus

= [L1 B1 L2 B2) HV Bus B3 T2 LV Bus

= [L1B1 L2B2] HV Bus B3* T2 *LV Bus

= [L1B1 + L2B2 – L1B1L2.B2] HV BusB3T1*LV Bus

= [(L1 B1 L2 B2) HV Bus B3 T1 LV Bus

= [L1B1 L2 B2] HV Bus B3* T1 *LV Bus.

= [L1B1 + L2B2 – L1B1L2B2] HV Bus * B3 T1 LV Bus.

= [L1 B1 L2 B2) HV Bus B3 T2 LV Bus

= [L1B1 L2 B2] HV Bus* B3T2. LV Bus.

= [L1B1 + L2B2 – L1B1L2.B2] HV Bus B3 T2 *LV Bus.