>9.0 0 8~8.9 1 7~7.9 18 6~6.9 108 5~5.9 800 4~4.9 6200 3~3.9 49000 2~2.9 300000 Dashed line: N is the number of earthquake per year of magnitude= M ± ∆M / 2 Solid line: N is the number of earthquake per year of magnitude ≥ M Gutenberg - Richter Relation
logN vs. M are typically modeled with a
Gutenberg - Richter relation: logN(M)=a-bM M is the earthquake magnitude N is the number of earthquake per year of magnitude. a is called the “productivity” b is called the “b-value”, and is typically in the range of 0.8-1.1. The b-value has served as a kind of tectonic parameter. 1.8-1.0 oceanic ridge 1.0-0.7 interplate 0.7-0.4 intraplate Using the GR Relation
Suppose b=1, and you are given that there is
one M 5.0+ earthquake per year in the region. How often does an M 7.0+ occur? logN(M)=a-bM log(1)=a-(1)(5) --> a=5.0 logN(7)=5-(1)(7)=-2 N(7)=10-2=0.01/year Some subtleties with GR Need to distinguish between N(M) and n(M) – N(M) is a cumulative curve, giving the number of earthquakes of magnitude M or larger per year. – n(M) is incremental, such that n(M)dM gives the number of earthquakes in a magnitude range of width dM, centered on M dN ( M ) – They are related: n ( M ) = − dM – Watch notation: some authors are not careful with which symbol they use. How to find the b-value? Two ways. – Count n(M) or N(M), then fit a least-squares line to logN or logn vs M. – The alternative is the “maximum likelihood” method: log10 e 0.434 b= = (M − M min ) (M − M min ) – Mmin is the smallest earthquake in the catalog. – M is the average. Minimum magnitude is 4.8. Average magnitude: 5.15 Application to find the b-value: 1966 data Least squares: We had b=0.84 Maximum likelihood: 0.434 0.434 b= = =1.24 (M − Mmin) (5.15− 4.80)
Don’t be surprised if the two methods disagree.
– Maximum likelihood puts more weight on smaller magnitudes. – But the two approaches usually give closer results for larger data sets.