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1421700083
Manajemen Produksi / A
Data permintaan
Indeks Data
Periode (dt)
Waktu
Sep-17 1 1660
Okt-17 2 1620
Nov-17 3 1630
Des-17 4 1800
Jan-18 5 1620
Feb-18 6 1680
Mar-18 7 1570
Apr-18 8 1597
Mei-18 9 1550
Jun-18 10 1703
Jul-18 11 1546
Agu-18 12 1660
Sep-18 13 1685
Okt-18 14 1560
Nov-18 15 1672
Des-18 16 1710
Jan-19 17 1667
Feb-19 18 1560
Mar-19 19 1850
Apr-19 20 1550
Permintaan (unit)
1900
1800
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
7 7 7 17 18 18 8 8 8 18 l -18 18 18 18 v-18 18 19 19 9 9
-1 t-1 ov-1 c- n- b- -1 -1 -1 n- g- p- ct- c- n- b- -1 -1
p
Oc e a ar pr ay u u u o e a ar pr
Se N D J Fe M A M J J A S e O N D J Fe M A
Indeks Data
Periode Pola Data (dt - d't)²
Waktu (dt)
Sep-17 1 1660 1645 225
Okt-17 2 1620 1645 625
Nov-17 3 1630 1645 225
Des-17 4 1800 1645 24025
Jan-18 5 1620 1645 625
Feb-18 6 1680 1645 1225
Mar-18 7 1570 1645 5625
Apr-18 8 1597 1645 2304
Mei-18 9 1550 1645 9025
Jun-18 10 1703 1645 3364
Jul-18 11 1546 1645 9801
Agu-18 12 1660 1645 225
Sep-18 13 1685 1645 1600
Okt-18 14 1560 1645 7225
Nov-18 15 1672 1645 729
Des-18 16 1710 1645 4225
Jan-19 17 1667 1645 484
Feb-19 18 1560 1645 7225
Mar-19 19 1850 1645 42025
Apr-19 20 1550 1645 9025
Mei-19 21 ? ...
Ʃ 32890 129.832
MSE = 6491,6
Abs. Tracking
dt d't Error RSFE Kum Kum. MAD
Periode Error Signal
(unit) (unit) (2)-(3)= (4)= (6)= (7)/(1)=
(1) l(4)l= (5)/(8)=
(2) (3) (4) (5) (7) (8)
(6) (9)
1 1660 1645 15 15 15 15 15,0 1,0
2 1620 1645 -25 -10 25 40 20,0 -0,5
3 1630 1645 -15 -25 15 55 18,3 -1,4
4 1800 1645 155 130 155 210 52,5 2,5
5 1620 1645 -25 105 25 235 47,0 2,2
6 1680 1645 35 140 35 270 45,0 3,1
7 1570 1645 -75 65 75 345 49,3 1,3
8 1597 1645 -48 17 48 393 49,1 0,3
9 1550 1645 -95 -78 95 488 54,2 -1,4
10 1703 1645 58 -20 58 546 54,6 -0,4
11 1546 1645 -99 -119 99 645 58,6 -2,0
12 1660 1645 15 -104 15 660 55,0 -1,9
13 1685 1645 40 -64 40 700 53,8 -1,2
14 1560 1645 -85 -149 85 785 56,1 -2,7
15 1672 1645 27 -122 27 812 54,1 -2,3
16 1710 1645 65 -57 65 877 54,8 -1,0
17 1667 1645 22 -35 22 899 52,9 -0,7
18 1560 1645 -85 -120 85 984 54,7 -2,2
19 1850 1645 205 85 205 1189 62,6 1,4
20 1550 1645 -95 -10 95 1284 64,2 -0,2
Peta Kontrol
5
3 3.1
2.5
2.2
2
1.3 1.4
1 1
0.3
0
Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Jul -18 Oct-18 Feb-19 -0.2
May-19
-0.5 -0.4
-0.7
-1 -1
-1.2
-1.4 -1.4
-2 -2 -1.9
-2.3 -2.2
Tracki ng Si gnal Control Li ne -2.7
-3
Li near (Control Li ne) Li near (Control Li ne)
Bata s Atas Li near (Batas Ata s )
Bata s Bawah Li near (Batas Bawah)
-4
Bata s Da erah B & A Li near (Batas Daerah B & A)
Bata s Da erah B & A Li near (Batas Daerah B & A)
Bata s Da erah B & C Li near (Batas Daerah B & C)
-5
Bata s Da erah B & C Li near (Batas Daerah B & C)
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Pol a Data Pola Peramal a n Li near (Pol a Peramal a n)
Peramalan VALID