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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Alberta Election 2019


Final Poll
Voter Intention Numbers
Leaders’ Favourability Ratings
15th April 2019
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results of With 20 years of political experience in all three
a survey conducted on April 14th, 2019 among a levels of government, President and CEO Quito
sample of 1288 adults, 18 years of age or older, Maggi is a respected commentator on international
living in Alberta. The survey was conducted using public affairs.
automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR).
Respondents were interviewed on both landlines Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
and cellular phones. Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
The sampling frame was derived from random government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm
digit dialing. to correctly predict a Liberal majority government
in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research accurately predicted the 2018 Ontario election and
and was not sponsored by a third party. was the first to predict that a CAQ majority win in
the 2018 Quebec election. Mainstreet Research
The margin of error for the first survey is +/- 2.73% is a member of the World Association for Public
and is accurate 19 times out of 20. Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report) CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca

In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca

Find us online at:


www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
UNITED CONSERVATIVES HEADED TO MAJORITY

15 April 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – The United Conservative Party is likely headed to a majority government
tomorrow as they hold a just over seven-point lead over the NDP.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s final poll for the 2019 Alberta election. The poll
surveyed 1288 Albertans on April 14th, 2019. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.73 % and is accurate
19 times out of 20.

“Jason Kenney is on track to become the next Premier of Alberta,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of
Mainstreet Research. “Rachel Notley deserves a lot of credit for getting this race far closer than expected,
but in the end, her campaign’s efforts were not enough.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the UCP with Jason Kenney as leader have 47.5% support, while the
NDP with Rachel Notley at the helm have 40.1%. The Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel has 7.9%. The
rest of the parties have under 3%.

“While the NDP have a solid lead in Edmonton and are competitive in Calgary, they face a massive deficit
outside of Alberta’s largest cities,” added Maggi. “Notley does have a puncher’s chance to win tomorrow,
but it seems highly unlikely.”

However, Maggi noted that the strong likelihood that the UCP will win a majority tomorrow does not
mean that Kenney will have smooth sailing should he takes the reins of office.

“What is astonishing is the difference in net favourability ratings between Kenney and Notley,” Maggi
added. “If Kenney ends up winning, this will be the first time since we have been polling where an
incoming premier is viewed less favourably than his predecessor.”

Notley’s net favourability rating stands at -4.2%, while Kenney’s is -11.4%. The only party leader with a
positive rating is Stephen Mandel.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:


Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
United Conservatives headed for a
majority with no honeymoon attached
The 2019 Alberta election will almost likely turn out as first expected - with the United Conservative
Party sweeping into power and Jason Kenney becoming the next Premier of Alberta. But it did take an
interesting path.

Last year it looked like it was going to be a slam dunk for the UCP. Kenney’s net favourability rating
was much better than that of Rachel Notley’s and the UCP were ahead by nearly twenty-five points.
At campaign’s end, the numbers look very different. The party leader with the best net favourability
rating is Alberta Party leader Stephen Mandel, and Notley has a better net rating than Kenney. More
importantly, there is a strong likelihood that the UCP will get under 50% of the vote and the NDP will
get roughly the same vote share as they did in 2015.

In some sense, the fate of the Notley government was cast in July 2017 when the Progressive
Conservatives and the Wildrose Alliance merged to form the United Conservatives. Kenney, along with
Brian Jean, worked hard to heal the rift in the conservative movement in Alberta believing that a single
conservative party could not be beaten. Up until the election was called, Wildrose support in 2015+PC
support in 2015 was equalling UCP support. Those who said it was not “one plus one equals two” may
also ultimately be right. The combined PC and Wildrose vote in 2015 was 52%, and it’s unlikely that the
United Conservative vote will exceed 50% at this point. But no matter. It will be enough to power the
UCP to government.

On the issue of merging the parties is where Kenney deserves the most credit for his imminent victory.
It is a testament to his stamina and determination over the past three years in trying to heal the
divisions in the centre-right movement. These fissures could reappear with the allegations surrounding
the Kamikaze scandal. These allegations have hurt Kenney’s brand and could dog him further in the
coming weeks and months.

Let’s be clear: Kenney will win a majority but he will have no honeymoon. He will be the first party
leader to win an election and have a worse net favourability rating than his predecessor, at last since
Mainstreet Research has been polling. Kenney will have lots of work to do to unite Albertans after long
and divisive campaigns to first unite the right and then defeat the NDP. His task of uniting conservatives,
and Albertans as a whole, very much remains incomplete to put it rather gently.

With that said, spare a thought for Rachel Notley. She did everything she could to make this election
close. Calling an election early with the Kamikaze scandal all over the headlines showed significant
tactical nous. If Notley wins, the early election deserves to be remembered as one of the finest
masterstrokes in campaign strategy in Canadian political history. While Kenney ran a disciplined front-
runner campaign, Notley ran a smart and aggressive campaign that did everything it could to highlight
Kenney’s weaknesses. With all that said, Notley still has a puncher’s chance of winning tomorrow, even
though the path is rather narrow.

It seems harsh that Notley’s re-election chances were sunk by factors outside of her control. It is also
somewhat harsh that she needed to increase her vote dramatically this time around from 2015 to have
a chance of winning this time. Her win in 2015 was aided tremendously by vote splitting on the right,
which is not happening thanks to a united right. Case in point: the NDP won Leduc-Beaumont in 2015
with 38%. Our riding poll has the NDP doing better than that in that riding - and with the UCP on track
to win it.

Economic pessimism in Alberta is high due to the low price of oil, and incumbents generally do not
perform well in an election against that sort of backdrop. Her chances would have greatly aided if
construction on the Trans Mountain pipeline - but this too is outside of her control. Even during the
campaign, we were finding that the gap between the NDP and UCP would be narrower when the
Alberta Party would do well. If the NDP are going to have a chance of winning in Tuesday, Notley
needs the Alberta Party to overperform and peel votes away from the UCP. Even at this stage in the
game, Notley needs help from outside forces.

As it stands today, we expect the United Conservatives to win 54 seats and win a comfortable but not
overwhelming majority. The NDP is expected to hold a very respectable 31 seats and sit in opposition
with the Alberta Party holding their one and only seat in Calgary-Elbow, although that riding may be
a close three-way race. When we polled Calgary-Elbow earlier, we had the Alberta Party losing, but
that was when the Alberta Party lower in our polling than today. We also expect the Alberta Liberal
Party to win a seat tomorrow.

A look at the seat by seat projections we’re releasing along with this final report shows 17 seats within
5 points or less, among these are 10 UCP seats, 6 of which are in Calgary or Edmonton. If we see the
NDP winning some or all of these early on the evening of the 16th, it could be a very long night for
everyone.

We will be watching two regions most closely on election night, and a few specific ridings as follows,
1) Greater Edmonton - While we already project a sweep for the NDP across Edmonton proper (20
seats), if we start seeing them leading in the surrounding areas of Edmonton, that could add 5 seats
to the NDP total, making it 51-35-1. If we see the UCP winning in Edmonton proper, that will surely
point to a big majority for Jason Kenney.

2) Calgary, Calgary, Calgary - It’s no surprise to anyone at Mainstreet that the numbers for Calgary
have shown such wide variance from poll to poll, as much as a 26 point lead for the UCP, which would
point to a near sweep for them, or as little as 4 points, which could mean the NDP holds their current
seats. In our own daily tracking, we have seen big swings. One might say “Polling Calgary is hard”. Our
most recent polling in Calgary leads us to suspect that our own numbers are accurate with our new
RDD frames, but the wild swings we’ve seen make us nervous about which Calgary shows up to the
polls.

3) Outside of greater Calgary & Edmonton, we are looking closely at Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin, Lethbridge
East, Red Deer South, Peace River, Banff-Kananaskis, and Grande Prairie. If the NDP is winning some
or most of these early on the evening of the 16th, it could make the outcome less certain.

Winning the 14 of those 15 closest races while not losing any of the ones they are leading closely
is the only path to an NDP re-election. While we’ve seen highly unusual late swings in Alberta in the
past, this would be a highly unlikely outcome.

Regardless if the NDP win 30 or fewer seats, this campaign has been one of the most remarkable
comebacks we’ve ever seen for Rachel Notley. She will leave the NDP as the strongest progressive
voice in Alberta. She has an outstanding chance to get more votes than she did in 2015, and more
vote share.
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
All Voters
vote for?

6.4%
1.1%
6.8%

0.9%
1.8%

37.8%

All Voters

All Voters
Decided
45.1%
and Leaning Voters
9.8%

0.6%
2.3% 1.3%
7.9% 26.3%
NDP
1.1% United Conservatives Alberta Liberals
4.7%
2.1%
Freedom Conservative Alberta Party Alberta Greens
2.2%
Undecided
4.1%
40.1%

All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters

47.5%

49.9%

NDP United Conservatives Liberals Freedom Conservative


NDP United Conservatives Alberta Liberals
Alberta Party Alberta Greens Another Party Undecided
Freedom Conservative Alberta Party Alberta Greens
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
(broken out by region)

42.4%
44.4%
Calgary CMA

3.2%
0.8%
7.3%
1.9%

50.2%
38.0%
Edmonton CMA

1.1%
1.8%
8.1%
0.8%

31.0%
56.6%
Rest of Alberta

2.1%
0.8%
8.2%
1.3%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

NDP United Conservatives Liberals Freedom Conservative

Alberta Party Alberta Greens


Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the
following party leaders?

achel Notley Jason Kenney

10% 10.6%

2.4%
3.1%

37.4%
41.7%

Rachel Notley Jason Kenney

45.9%

Rachel Notley
48.8%

avid Khan Stephen Mandel

13.2%

20.5%
3.7% 28.5% 31.3%
32.6% 32.1%

David Khan Rachel Notley Stephen Mandel

28.1% 12.1%

18.7% 51.8%
27.3%

Favourable Unfavourable Not Familiar Not Sure


Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
NDP led by Rachel Notley 37.8% 32% 43.7% 46.1% 37.2% 29.9% 35% 41% 47.6% 28.4%
UCP led by Jason Kenney 45.1% 53.1% 37.3% 35.6% 45.9% 53.7% 49.6% 43% 35.9% 53.5%
Liberals led by David Khan 1.8% 1.5% 2.2% 2.3% 1% 1.8% 2.4% 3% 0.8% 1.8%
Freedom Conservative led by Derek Fildebrandt 0.9% 0.5% 1.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 1.5% 0.8%
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel 6.8% 6.6% 7% 7% 7.2% 8.5% 3% 6.2% 7% 7.1%
Alberta Green Party led by Cheryle Chagnon-Greyeyes 1.1% 0.6% 1.5% 1.6% 0.6% 1% 1% 1.5% 0.8% 1%
Undecided 6.4% 5.8% 7.0% 5.9% 7.7% 4.4% 8.6% 5% 6.4% 7.5%
Unweighted Frequency 1288 674 614 365 349 363 211 506 364 418
Weighted Frequency 1288 642 646 410 351 322 205 375 387 526

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)


All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
NDP led by Rachel Notley 39.1% 32.8% 45.3% 47.2% 39.1% 30.6% 36.1% 41.8% 49.2% 29.6%
UCP led by Jason Kenney 46.1% 53.9% 38.3% 36.5% 46.7% 54% 51.7% 43.8% 37.3% 54.2%
Liberals led by David Khan 2.1% 2% 2.2% 2.7% 1.3% 1.8% 2.4% 3.2% 1.1% 2%
Freedom Conservative led by Derek Fildebrandt 1.1% 0.6% 1.5% 1.6% 0.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.8% 1.8% 0.8%
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel 7.7% 7.1% 8.2% 8.2% 8.1% 9% 3.7% 7.2% 7.9% 7.8%
Alberta Green Party led by Cheryle Chagnon-Greyeyes 1.3% 0.9% 1.7% 1.8% 0.6% 1.3% 1.3% 1.9% 0.8% 1.2%
Undecided 2.7% 2.6% 2.8% 1.9% 3.3% 2.1% 4.4% 1.4% 1.9% 4.3%
Unweighted Frequency 1288 674 614 365 349 363 211 506 364 418
Weighted Frequency 1288 642 646 410 351 322 205 375 387 526

(decided and leaning voters)


All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
NDP led by Rachel Notley 40.1% 33.6% 46.5% 48% 40.3% 31.2% 37.7% 42.4% 50.2% 31%
UCP led by Jason Kenney 47.5% 55.5% 39.5% 37.4% 48.4% 55.1% 54.2% 44.4% 38% 56.6%
Liberals led by David Khan 2.1% 2% 2.3% 2.8% 1.4% 1.8% 2.5% 3.2% 1.1% 2.1%
Freedom Conservative led by Derek Fildebrandt 1.1% 0.6% 1.5% 1.7% 0.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.8% 1.8% 0.8%
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel 7.9% 7.3% 8.5% 8.3% 8.4% 9.3% 3.9% 7.3% 8.1% 8.2%
Alberta Green Party led by Cheryle Chagnon-Greyeyes 1.3% 0.9% 1.7% 1.8% 0.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.9% 0.8% 1.3%
Unweighted Frequency 1256 658 598 358 339 356 203 499 357 400
Weighted Frequency 1256 626 630 400 342 314 200 366 377 513
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Rachel Notley?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 41.7% 39.2% 44.2% 45.8% 42.5% 37.5% 38.9% 45.1% 49.3% 33.8%
Unfavourable 45.9% 50.6% 41.2% 42.4% 46.7% 49% 46.3% 43.3% 39.3% 52.4%
Not Familiar with Rachel Notley 2.4% 3.1% 1.7% 2.1% 1.7% 2.3% 4.4% 2.8% 1.9% 2.5%
Not sure 10% 7.1% 12.9% 9.6% 9% 11.3% 10.5% 8.8% 9.5% 11.3%
Unweighted Frequency 1288 674 614 365 349 363 211 506 364 418
Weighted Frequency 1288 642 646 410 351 322 205 375 387 526

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Jason Kenney?


Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 37.4% 45% 29.9% 34.4% 37.1% 40.6% 39% 39.5% 31.2% 40.6%
Unfavourable 48.8% 42.4% 55.3% 54.6% 52% 42.3% 42.1% 50.9% 55.5% 42.5%
Not Familiar with Jason Kenney 3.1% 3.6% 2.7% 3.7% 1.7% 3.7% 3.5% 2% 3% 4%
Not sure 10.6% 9% 12.1% 7.3% 9.2% 13.4% 15.3% 7.6% 10.3% 12.9%
Unweighted Frequency 1288 674 614 365 349 363 211 506 364 418
Weighted Frequency 1288 642 646 410 351 322 205 375 387 526

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of David Khan?


Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 20.5% 20.7% 20.4% 21.8% 19.5% 18.1% 23.5% 25.7% 20.3% 17%
Unfavourable 28.1% 33.5% 22.8% 25.6% 33.8% 26.8% 25.4% 22.8% 28.2% 31.8%
Not Familiar with David Khan 18.7% 19% 18.5% 18% 16.6% 21.4% 19.6% 16.6% 16.8% 21.7%
Not sure 32.6% 26.8% 38.4% 34.6% 30.1% 33.6% 31.5% 34.9% 34.6% 29.5%
Unweighted Frequency 1288 674 614 365 349 363 211 506 364 418
Weighted Frequency 1288 642 646 410 351 322 205 375 387 526

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Stephen Mandel?


Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 32.1% 33.9% 30.3% 28% 33.4% 34.1% 34.7% 30.8% 33.8% 31.6%
Unfavourable 27.3% 30.1% 24.6% 26% 27.5% 29.2% 26.7% 22.1% 32.8% 27.1%
Not Familiar with Stephen Mandel 12.1% 12% 12.2% 12.4% 11.7% 12.6% 11.5% 17.9% 4.9% 13.3%
Not sure 28.5% 24.1% 32.9% 33.5% 27.4% 24.2% 27.1% 29.2% 28.4% 28%
Unweighted Frequency 1288 674 614 365 349 363 211 506 364 418
Weighted Frequency 1288 642 646 410 351 322 205 375 387 526
Full Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held today, which Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
party would you vote for? (first six responses opinion of David Khan?
randomized) Favourable opinion
Alberta New Democratic Party led by Rachel Unfavourable opinion
Notley Not sure
United Conservative Party led by Jason Kenney Not familiar with David Khan
Alberta Liberal Party led by David Khan
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
Freedom Conservative Party led by Derek opinion of Stephen Mandel?
Fildebrandt Favourable opinion
Green Party of Alberta led by Cheryle Chagnon- Unfavourable opinion
Greyeyes Not sure
Another Party Not familiar with Stephen Mandel
Undecided
What is your gender?
And which party are you leaning towards? Male
(first six responses randomized - only asked of Female
respondents who were undecided in previous
question) What is your age group?
Alberta New Democratic Party led by Rachel 18 to 34 years of age
Notley 35 to 49 years of age
United Conservative Party led by Jason Kenney 50 to 64 years of age
Alberta Liberal Party led by David Khan 65 years of age or older
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel
Freedom Conservative Party led by Derek
Fildebrandt
Green Party of Alberta led by Cheryle Chagnon-
Greyeyes
Another Party
Undecided

(the order of the next five questions were


randomized)
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
opinion of Rachel Notley?
Favourable opinion
Unfavourable opinion
Not sure
Not familiar with Rachel Notley

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable


opinion of Jason Kenney?
Favourable opinion
Unfavourable opinion
Not sure
Not familiar with Jason Kenney
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on April 14th, 2019 among
a sample of 1288 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Alberta. The survey was conducted
using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviewed on both landlines and
cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of Alberta.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any third-
party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from random digit dialing and respondents were dialed at
random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.73% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 3.77%, Females: +/-
3.95%, 18-34 age group: +/- 5.13%, 35-49 age group: +/- 5.25%, 50-64 age group: +/- 5.14%,
65+ age group: +/- 6.75%, Calgary +/- 4.36%, Edmonton, 5.14%, Rest of Alberta: +/- 4.79%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.