Executive Summary

With one of the highest population densities in the world, Bangladesh has defied and surprised
experts all over the world with a sustained GDP growth around 6-7%. The increase in quality
of lifestyle has fueled the need for electricity and the power sector has not quite been able to
pick up the soaring demand. Bangladesh currently has a per capita consumption significantly
lower than the average of that for Asia. The Government has undertaken various projects and
drafted policies to meet this rapidly growing demand.

Through this report, we have primarily highlighted the current scenario of Bangladesh’s power
industry in light of global macro-economic situations and changes and explored the future
prospects, challenges and impacts of global policies upon this industry. Finally, we gave a few
recommendations based on our analysis.

Despite facing energy shortages, Bangladesh stood out to be the global leader in terms of GDP
growth per unit of electricity produced. This goes on to demonstrate the tremendous potential
of growth provided Bangladesh taps into higher capacity of electricity production.

Apart from the crucial role of FDI in the power sector, the price of oil affects the power industry
significantly as well. As oil prices rise in the future, along with the depleting gas resources of
the country, Bangladesh will have to undergo a major shift towards coal by the next few
decades.

A comparative analysis of the south Asian countries reveal that Bangladesh has the lowest
energy security among the countries. Bangladesh has the highest GDP per unit of energy used
in comparison to 5 South-East Asian countries including Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and
Indonesia. This marks the potential of the power sector of the country that can boost the
economy with an increased Power generation capacity.

We have formulated a business plan to address the present needs which includes strengthening
the BBIN pact that will minimize the energy gap, an extension to the government’s 2041 plan
of imposing efficiency measures of all the stakeholders and establishing an off grid solar
community that will reach the rural areas.
Table of Contents

1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 5
2. Energy Trade Scenario ........................................................................................................................ 5
2.1 Bangladesh Trade Scenario ........................................................................................................... 5
2.1.1 FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) in energy sector .................................................................. 6
2.2 Global Trade Scenario: Oil............................................................................................................. 7
2.2.1 The Oil Price Plunge ................................................................................................................... 7
2.2.2 Future Implications ................................................................................................................ 8
2.3 Rising Oil Prices: Impact on Global Trade and Bangladesh ........................................................... 8
2.4 Falling Oil Prices: Impact on Global Trade and Bangladesh .......................................................... 9
3. Competitive Analysis ......................................................................................................................... 11
4. Comparative Analysis ........................................................................................................................ 12
4.1 Vietnam ....................................................................................................................................... 12
4.2 Malaysia ...................................................................................................................................... 13
4.3 Thailand....................................................................................................................................... 13
4.4 Indonesia:.................................................................................................................................... 13
4.5 Bangladesh .................................................................................................................................. 14
4.6 Energy Security and Regional Cooperation (ESRC) framework .................................................. 14
5. Business Plan..................................................................................................................................... 15
5.1 Strengthening the BBIN Pact....................................................................................................... 15
5.2 Improving efficiency.................................................................................................................... 16
5.3 Solar GRID ................................................................................................................................... 16
6. Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................... 16
7. References ........................................................................................................................................ 17

Table of Figures

Figure 1 Changing Picture of Bangladesh Power Sector ......................................................................... 5

Figure 2 Average Annual OPEC Crude Oil Prices [19] ............................................................................. 7
Figure 3 It's all about the batteries [33].................................................................................................. 9
Figure 4 Porter's Diamond Model ......................................................................................................... 12
Figure 5 GDP per unit of Energy use [6]................................................................................................ 13
Figure 6 Seasonal Complementarity in Monthly Electricity Load Profiles Across South Asia .............. 15
1. Introduction
Bangladesh is marching on as the 2nd fastest growing economy in the world according to IMF
[1]. With a steady GDP growth, marked at 7.3% in 2017 [2], the signs are optimistic for its
Power and Energy Sector. From 2009, the power generation capacity of the country has rose
by more than 3 times, with a capacity of 18,753 Megawatts currently. [3]

Figure 1 Changing Picture of Bangladesh Power Sector

Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina has set the goal to reach 100% electrification of
the country by 2021 and electricity generation capacity upto 60000 Megawatt by 2041. [4]

2. Energy Trade Scenario

2.1 Bangladesh Trade Scenario
The Power and Energy Sector of Bangladesh isn’t heavily reliant on trade now. At present, 500
MW of electricity is imported through a HVDC substation in Comilla from India. [5] Also, an
additional 160 MW electricity is being imported from Tripura, India. By 2021, at least 7800
MW of electricity is expected to be imported according to Power Sector Master Plan. And the
vision for 2031 outlines more than 10000 MW Power import. [6]

Although Bangladesh still can’t meet its demand with daily production, but it will play a major
role in Cross Border Trading in BBIN pact due to seasonal variations of the countries
involved. [7] Meeting the agenda of WTO, Bangladesh can work on the “unlocking trade for
clean energy”, through heightened importance on renewable energy. As the government of

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Bangladesh has targeted an estimated production of 2000 MW from just solar power by 2021,
sustainable energy sources will keep rising. This will ensure long-term energy security with a
reliable position in the BBIN pact.

2.1.1 FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) in energy sector

To ensure a long-term sustainability, FDI will be playing a key role in Bangladesh Economy.
After addressing a Growth Summit in London, the State Minister of Power, Energy and Mineral
Resources of Bangladesh, Nasrul Hamid called the Power sector to be a promising opportunity
to invest. [8] Bangladesh expects well over 15 Billion USD from FDI over the next 5 years.
[9] This will be double the investment that Bangladesh has made in this sector over the last
decade. Attracting FDI may prove to be a huge challenge for Bangladesh. But because of
Bangladesh’s big domestic market, availability of labor, seaports, utility charge, long term tax
holiday and 100% repatriation facility, Bangladesh have a comparative advantage over others
in many aspects.

FDI is not new in the Power Sector with plenty of Trades already in place. Sembcorp of
Singapore invested in Matarbari’s 1400 Power Plant, a total of 390 Million US Dollars. [10]
Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant with a possible generational capacity of 2400 Megawatts
is Russian investment backed, with 90% of the 12.65 Billion Dollars funded by a loan
from Russian Government. [11] Chinese investment in Payra power plant [12], India’s
investment in Rampal Power Plant [13], 3,600 MW re-gasification LNG-based combined cycle
power plant at Payra by Germany’s Siemens AG [14], Singapore’s Krisenergy’s onshore
hydrocarbon operations at Bangladesh [15] and the seismic survey in deep sea blocks
conducted by Korean company Posco Daewoo [16] are notable investments and potential
scopes of investment in this sector. Also, United States based Global Giants Chevron is
primarily involved in the supply half of the gas in Bangladesh [17], and Excelerate energy
is set to produce the first ever floating LNG terminal in Bangladesh, at Maheshkhali. [18] Even
with plenty of trades, Bangladesh is still failing to attract more FDI’s to meet its future demand.
To ensure Energy security, FDI will be playing a major role in the time to come.

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2.2 Global Trade Scenario: Oil
For the energy sector, oil is in fact the global determinant of trade and economic variability.
It’s a medium of political and economic power. Control over oil prices grants a partial control
over world economy. There are many implications of both plunging and rising oil prices. But
the implications and prospects depend on the reason for the fluctuations. It could be a cut in
the production or it could be a symptom of economic failure. For measuring the future impact,
the causes too need to be highlighted.

2.2.1 The Oil Price Plunge

Since June of 2014, oil prices plummeted about 65 percent. This surprised many observers.
The underlying reasons behind the plummet will help us analyze the future trade and economic
impact for the whole world and particularly Bangladesh.

Average Annual OPEC Crude Oil Prices

120
107.46 109.45
105.87
100 96.29

80
68.31

60 52.51
49.49
40.68
40

20

0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

USD

Figure 2 Average Annual OPEC Crude Oil Prices [19]

There are three core reasons that can be highlighted for the plummet that started in mid-2014.

1. The US production of Shale Oil: USA started to produce shale oil at a massive rate and
they were able to set a lower price. Due to the advancement in technology and efficient ways
of extracting oil, it was possible for them to do so. [20]

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2. The OPEC’s attempt at gaining back the market share: “Organization of Petroleum
Exporter Countries” (OPEC) tried to gain back their market share from the US. They thought
setting the price low would drive many oil drilling businesses in the US out of market.

3. Over estimation of future oil consumption: The overestimation of future oil consumption
led to a higher production of oil. China, one of the largest consumers of oil, is yet to increase
their consumption as predicted otherwise.

2.2.2 Future Implications

The plunge that started in 2015 did not occur due to a massive economic failure or political
turmoil. Neither did it happen due to some cyclic pattern. It was the outcome of an erroneous
array of assumptions. Also, OPEC tries to keep the oil prices around $80. So, there’s been a
steady increase in the oil prices again since 2015. But experts say it might rise to over $100
soon.

2.3 Rising Oil Prices: Impact on Global Trade and Bangladesh

The oil price fluctuations have different impacts on importers and exporters of oil. USA for
now is a net importer of oil but is expected to be a net exporter soon due to its production of
shale oil. Oil importing countries like Japan, China, India will lose while the oil exporting
countries will benefit.

• Higher marginal propensity to consume out of income among the exporters

• Lower marginal propensity to consume out of income among the importers
• Trade surplus and a boost to the sovereign wealth funds among the exporter countries
• Higher capital investment and inflation
• Viability of new technology due to exploration of oil rigs and the need for efficiency

Rising oil prices doesn’t directly translate to investment in the global markets. If the oil prices
rise too much, it will lead to a halt in the globalization process as it will increase the cost of
shipments in global trade.

Bangladesh is a net importer of oil. But it is one of the largest producers of natural gas, rising
oil prices will drive Bangladesh into focusing more on natural gas. But, the oil prices of now
is at its historical lows. Bangladesh, not being an exporter could benefit from this in a number
of ways. But Bangladesh has an oil subsidy and a domestic price. So, the business here depends
heavily on the reforms and oil market deregulations. Effects of rising oil prices:

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 • Calling for a subsidy and pricing reform
• Negative effect on the poverty reduction program
• A decrease in investment in the private sector
• Inflation
The oil products in Bangladesh are priced lower domestically than the global price as of now.
This indicates that price reforms will not affect us adversely. [21] The private sector will be
affected heavily as the entrepreneurs will not be attracted. Production of goods require oil and
higher oil cost reduces the profit margin.

2.4 Falling Oil Prices: Impact on Global Trade and Bangladesh

“The Green Paradox”, proposed by the German Economist Hans-Werner indicates a possibility
that the use of fossil fuel will be limited one day due to its impact on global warming and
natural environment. As one of the biggest concerns of the world today is sustainable and clean
energy, in the future the value of oil will drop significantly due to its decaying nature towards
the environment. So, oil today is much valuable than oil tomorrow due to the absence of such
viable clean energy that can be used massively. [22]

It’s presumed that with the rise of

industrialization 4.0 and efficient
batteries, oil will be replaced as an
energy source. And considering
this possibility, the so called
“Black Gold” onwards the oil
reserves of middle east are being
invested in, more and more so that
they can be erupted faster before
it’s too late and the value is lost. Figure 3 It's all about the batteries [33]

The impact of falling oil prices on global trade is tremendous. To some, it’s considered a threat.
Some of the crucial ones are discussed below:

• OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) countries will incur a

significant decrease in their GDP. [23]
• Overall increase in global trade and globalization due to low shipping costs

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 • Less investment by the investors in Oil and Gas development as Gas is a by product of
oil in many countries.
• The oil price slump will attenuate the foreign currency of oil producing countries like
the Middle East.
• In most of the countries of the middle east, the drop of oil revenue will put their ability
to fight terrorism in shambles. This in turn somewhat affects the global trade.

As for Bangladesh, falling oil prices is a boon. Plunging oil prices pose a significant
opportunity for most of the developing countries. Bangladesh, being one of them can make the
best use of it. [24]

The impact of plunging oil prices on Bangladesh is given below:

• Most of the East Asian oil importing countries including Bangladesh will stand to
benefit.
• Investors and entrepreneurs in Bangladesh will be attracted more to their manufacturing
business
• Investment in public sector will also increase as Govt. will gain benefit significantly if
they keep the domestic price of oil stable.
• Removal of oil subsidy will pose low social consequences due to low oil prices.
• As a negative, remittances will decrease. As Bangladesh has manpower in oil producing
countries, low oil prices will decrease the amount of money sent home.
• Due to dependency on the European countries and the Middle East over textile export,
the industry might go through a downward surge.
• Oil fired power plants like SUMMIT power and KPCL will get a cost advantage of
crude oil purchase from global market.
• Cement companies too will get cost benefits as well

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3. Competitive Analysis
Analyzing the competitive index of Bangladesh through a Porter’s Diamond Model, the main
takeaways are:

1. Solar Home Systems and LNG Terminals are core strategies to ensure energy security
2. A large off-grid area to come under power
3. Existing Generator Modularity and huge renewable energy workforce can be key.

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 Figure 4 Porter's Diamond Model

4. Comparative Analysis
A comparative analysis of Power Sector of five South-East Asian Countries – Vietnam,
Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Bangladesh follows.

4.1 Vietnam
The installed power generation capacity in Vietnam amounts to 42.13 Gigawatt. This consists
of 37.6 percent hydropower and 34.3 percent coal-fired thermal power. [25]

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4.2 Malaysia
Malaysia has a reserve of more than 5000 billion barrels of crude oil and condensates. As of
December 31st, 2015, the installed capacity of power production in Malaysia is more than 30
GW, of which 18.8 percent amounts of hydropower, 44.4 percent from natural gas, 28.3 percent
form coal and the rest from other sources. [26]

4.3 Thailand
Although for the last 30 years natural gas has made up 65-70 percent of Thailand’s electricity
generation fuel mix, they are now turning into imported hydropower, Liquified Natural Gas
(LNG), coal and renewable energy since the reserves in the Gulf of Thailand will run out of
natural gas within 5-6 years.

As of May 2018, the system generating capacity of Thailand is 42,554 MW. Of these, 56
percent are generated using natural gas, 9 percent using coal, 9 percent using renewable
sources, 12 percent imported from other countries and the rest from other sources. [27]

4.4 Indonesia:
The installed power plant capacity in Indonesia was approximately 59.6 Gigawatt, in 2016.
The current power generation fuel mix includes coal 54.69 percent, gas 25.89 percent, oil 6.97

GDP per unit of Energy use of South-East Asian

Countries
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

Bangladesh Thailand Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia

Figure 5 GDP per unit of Energy use [6]

percent and renewables 12.45 percent. The progressive target of 35 Gigawatt of new producing
capacity was no longer possible by 2019. [28]

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4.5 Bangladesh
Considering the scenario of Bangladesh, the Power and Energy sector has seen a noticeable
change in the past decade. The fuel mix of Bangladesh’s power plants is heavily based on
natural gas. The power generation capacity rose from 4942 MW in 2009 to 18,753 MW in
2018. Looking at the GDP per unit of energy use, Bangladesh is seen to be flying with high
colors. This indicates the efficient use of power to this point of time despite all the negatives.
And with more power plants to be set up in the future, the future is heading in the upper
trajectory.

4.6 Energy Security and Regional Cooperation (ESRC) framework

Vietnam projects to increase the percentage of renewable energy power to 7 percent by 2020
and 10 percent by 2030. An estimation of a study by the World Bank shows that 8.6 percent of
Vietnam’s land mass could be used for wind power. The total estimate of the wind power
potential of Vietnam is between 24.0 Gigawatt and 26.7 Gigawatt. They are also aiming to
increase the installed capacity of solar power to 850 MW by 2020, 4,000 MW by 2025 and
12,000 MW by 2030. [25]

Thailand’s renewable energy capacity is projected to reach 40 Gigawatt in 2036. The country
is also committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by up to 25% compared to business as
usual levels. [27]

Malaysia spent a gigantic RM 14.5 billion to buy fossil fuel alone in 2011 to generate energy.
Therefore, to decrease fossil fuel-based electricity generation, they are minimizing electric
consumption and using energy-efficient electrical items and gadgets. This is in line with the
Government’s master plan to increase energy efficiency by 15% in 2030. [26]

With an abundance of almost every renewable energy source, including 40 percent of the
world’s geothermal reserves, Indonesia can be a global clean energy leader. The government
has an ambitious plan to raise renewables’ share to 23-25 percent by 2025 from just 6 percent
now would expand access to electricity, support industrial growth, and reinvigorate the
country’s less developed regions. [29]

By 2030, Bangladesh will be reducing the amount of gas used in the production of electricity.
From 91 percent electricity produced now from gas and oil, there will be plenty of coal-based
power stations by 2030. It is expected that, by 2030, 23 percent of electricity will be produced

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from mainly LNG, and Gas, 51 percent from Coal based power plants and regional grid while
the rest from nuclear, hydroelectricity and other renewable energy sources. [30]

5. Business Plan
5.1 Strengthening the BBIN Pact
The BBIN agreement has paved a way for Bangladesh to cross border power trade. The BBIN
pact can further be enhanced to allow connectivity of power among the countries through a
grid network. At present, Nepal and Bhutan are currently utilizing their hydro-power potential
in the range of mere 1 to 2 percent. Bangladesh and India can take advantage of the excess
energy that would be supplied by these countries after meeting their domestic demand. [31]
Since there is a considerable variation in generation pattern and access to energy sources due
to time of day and seasonal impacts, this has opened great opportunities of cross border
transmission systems among the south Asian countries. Seasonal monsoon cycles in Bhutan
and Nepal when it is summertime in Bangladesh shall be an optimal time for importing
renewable, cheaper and cleaner electricity through the grid.

Figure 6 Seasonal Complementarity in Monthly Electricity Load Profiles Across South Asia (SOURCE:
IAEE ENERGY FORUM)

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5.2 Improving efficiency
Bangladesh has no doubt been suffering the traditional mentality of developing country energy
planners: which has always been to increase generation to meet demand. Several studies show
that by implementing efficiency measures, total savings amount to almost 30%. [32] It is
common practice of both the private and public sectors of the Bangladeshi power industry to
opt for the least cost option with no regard for measures such as life-cycle costing. To take an
example, cheap gas turbines in many cases have efficiencies that are 8-10 percent lower than
those of the state-of-the-art. [32] It is also noteworthy that local entrepreneurs have been
demanding VAT exemption on LED lights which consume 50-60% less energy and three times
more durable.

This calls for an extension to the government’s 2041 plan: A program that establishes a strict
regime of monitoring and penalty for tackling with pilferage and setting a minimum efficiency
standard for all future turbines and plants. Producers of energy efficient appliances shall be
subsidized and mandatory energy audits and efficiency improvement programs in large
industries including power plants and transmission and distribution infrastructure shall be
introduced.

5.3 Solar GRID

For a country unable to meet the energy demands running full load on its inefficient generation
systems, the notion of reaching a hundred percent electrification by 2021 and simultaneously
attempting to keep the demand supply gap closer seems elusive. Throughout many developing
countries along with Bangladesh, the prospect of providing electricity to rural areas through
solar panels has grown popular over the recent years. A noteworthy initiative is “Roshni”.
Launched by The Young Global Leaders South Asia Bridge Initiative (SABI), Roshni is an off
grid solar community based in Afghanistan. [33] Bangladesh can implement such an initiative
in its off-grid areas as well.

6. Conclusion
Global Trade Scenario suggests plenty of room for Bangladesh to capitalize in future. It will
play a key role to reach the goal of Vision 2041 while also ensuring Energy Security.

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[22] H.-W. Sinn, The Green Paradox.

[23] G. Zachmann, "What do low oil prices mean for the global economy?," 13 January 2016.
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https://www.export.gov/article?id=Vietnam-Power-Generation.

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Available: http://www.st.gov.my.

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