Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Written by
Foreword
Ross Hunter
IPO Centre Leader
Partner, PwC UK
Executive summary 4
Looking to 2030 12
Conclusion 21
In 2018, The Economist Intelligence Unit conducted a follow- • When looking towards 2030, although our respondents
up to a 2011 survey on behalf of PwC, asking nearly 400 still expect companies from China and India to dominate
executives at companies from across the globe for their views issuance, views regarding the leading exchanges have
on the factors that are defining the development of global changed dramatically. The same four exchanges, NYSE,
equity capital markets. This report marks the evolution of these Nasdaq, LSE and HKEX, are expected to maintain their
industry leaders’ views. leading position, reflecting their unmatched levels of resilience
and liquidity advantages. In 2011, the medium-term view of
The 2011 report reflected a degree of post–financial crisis the top four exchange destinations was very different — with
optimism, particularly for emerging market (EM) equity markets. Shanghai in the top spot, Indian exchanges at number three
Given the growth dynamics at that time, expectations were for and Brazil’s Bovespa in fourth place.
EMs — particularly China and India — to increasingly dominate
global equity markets in terms of issuance, sources of capital • Liquidity remains the top priority (selected as most
and the influence of their stock exchanges. The latest survey important by 49% of respondents) when choosing a
does demonstrate a continued recognition of the growing role listing location. Respondents are increasingly focused on
of EMs, but also reflects a sometimes radical modification of valuations (32%) and concerned about the costs of listing (29%).
business leaders’ perspectives. Meanwhile, stock market ecosystems and the size of the investor
base have become relatively less important to participants.
• Although developed market (DM) exchanges continue to
be favoured for listing, their lead over EMs has narrowed • Companies’ options for raising capital have increased.
significantly since 2011. The dominance of the New York Some 76% of respondents believe that companies in both
Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Nasdaq, the London Stock DMs and EMs have more choices of both public and private
Exchange (LSE) and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) financing routes.
is not as great as before, with Indian exchanges, Shanghai’s
SSE and Brazil’s Bovespa moving up the ranks, in recognition • Private markets are seen as complementary to public
of the growing maturity of EM exchanges. Other exchanges markets, not as rivals. Seventy percent of respondents feel
that became more attractive are the Australian Securities that the traditional public listing is becoming a less important
Exchange (ASX) and Singapore Exchange (SGX), reflecting source of funding. The most attractive private funding
the growing importance of the Southeast Asia region. option, selected by 55% of respondents, is private equity.
Notwithstanding that finding, 70% agree that most successful
55%
companies would still choose to go public at some point in
their life cycle.
In 2011, survey respondents thought that EM exchanges, most increasing share of global GDP, coupled with deeper domestic
notably China and India, would grow rapidly to rival — if not capital capacity and additional opportunities for access by
displace — DM exchanges, particularly London and New York. foreign investors. The market capitalisation of companies
on Chinese exchanges was forecast to outstrip those on US
The expectation was of high growth in the market capitalisation exchanges by 2030. Evidence suggests that EMs are falling
of companies listed on EM stock exchanges. This was based behind on this trend line.
on overall market bullishness about the rise of EMs and their
309
25,000
300
20,000 250
15,000
152
129 150
10,000
96 89
82 100
52
5,000
25 31 50
0 -
NYSE NASDAQ Japan LSE Shanghai Hong Euronext Shenzhen BSE TMX
Kong
Source: World Federation of Exchanges (WFE), exchange data (for LSE only), Dealogic
Note: WFE data includes only domestic market capitalisation
The slower-than-expected growth of EM exchanges is In terms of capital raised, the US, London and Hong Kong
demonstrated when comparing the sizes of the US and Greater remain the pre-eminent international centres; mainland China
China exchanges now and in 2011. The combined US domestic exchanges also show strong growth.
market caps total US$30.4tn; for mainland China and Hong Kong,
they total US$10.1tn. In 2011, it was US$15.6tn and US$5.7tn, In addition to representing a significant proportion of the new
respectively. US exchanges are now three times the size of their capital raised, the US market has been the major beneficiary
Chinese counterparts, compared with 2.7 times in 2011. The of a dramatic increase in technology-related stock valuations.
growth of the US market has outstripped expectations, while Largely as a result of that, the US S&P 500 index has doubled
the growth of China and other EMs has lagged. since 2007, although prices have come under pressure since
late autumn 2018.
Initial public offering (IPO) activity since 2011 has been heavily
influenced by the rise of ‘new economy’ companies. As
reflected in Figure 2, technology and financials dominated the
listing activity on the leading exchanges in 2016–18. Other
notable listings include the IPO of Softbank, which raised The geographical and cultural proximity
US$21.3bn on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in December 2018, for mainland investors to invest via the
the US$5.2bn IPO of Siemens Healthineers and the US$4.4bn
IPO of Knorr-Bremse on the Deutsche Börse.
Stock Connect channel should entice
companies to list in Hong Kong.
Figure 2: Top IPOs by sector in London, New York, James Fok
Hong Kong and Shanghai, 2016–18
Head of Group Strategy
HKEX
London
New York
Hong Kong
Shanghai
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
London
Year IPO Total amount US$m Sector
2018 Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc 1,407 Automotive
Smithson Investment Trust plc 1,084 Finance
Vivo Energy plc 819 Oil & Gas
Avast plc 816 Computers & Electronics
Nova Ljubljanska Banka 764 Finance
2017 Allied Irish Banks Plc 3,832 Finance
EN+ Group plc 1,500 Utility & Energy
J2 Acquisition Ltd 1,210 Finance
Sherborne Investors (Guernsey) C Ltd 906 Finance
BioPharma Credit plc 762 Finance
2016 ConvaTec Group plc 1,939 Healthcare
CYBG plc 566 Finance
Metro Bank plc 564 Finance
Countryside Properties plc 506 Real Estate/Property
Civitas Social Housing plc 436 Real Estate/Property
Shanghai
Source: Dealogic
The new technology wave and its impact on global capital markets
Looking to 2030, PwC anticipates that technology will remain • Mainland China is now allowing global technology companies
the most important sector. easier access to domestic investors. Authorities have
endorsed the Chinese depositary receipts scheme, which will
Historically, the US market has been a more attractive allow Chinese investors to hold a form of shares in firms listed
environment for technology companies, with better valuations abroad. This scheme is currently available only to the largest
and a more knowledgeable investor base, attracting the lion’s companies.
share of Chinese technology IPOs, including Alibaba’s record-
breaking US$25bn IPO in 2014. Increasing efforts by leading • The Shanghai exchange is moving to a registration process
financial centres to win over such companies will continue prior to listing, similar to Hong Kong and the US, which is
to intensify competition between the New York and China expected to reduce the current lengthy wait for new issuers.
(mainland China and Hong Kong) exchanges in particular. Notably, in January 2019 the exchange unveiled trading rules
Listings of companies such as Xiaomi and Meituan in Hong for its much anticipated Technology Innovation Board. It will
Kong in 2018 are evidence of this. now allow unprofitable tech firms, including pre-revenue
biotech startups, as well as the companies with a dual-
A number of recent market and regulatory developments can be class shareholding structure, to list on the new board, giving
expected to help attract more IPOs to Hong Kong and mainland the Shanghai bourse greater freedom to attract promising
Chinese exchanges, away from the US market: technology startups away from New York and Hong Kong.
• The amendment by HKEX of IPO rules in April 2018 to If local regulatory constraints are alleviated, domestic
allow dual-class shares for listing companies gives certain markets might prove more attractive for fast-growing Chinese
shareholders, such as company founders, voting power companies, given how well Chinese investors understand these
beyond the proportion of their equity holding. This is popular companies and the potential depth of their home market.
with ‘new economy’ companies and was previously available
only in the US.
Figure 4: Which of the following exchanges do you think issuers consider (beyond their home exchange)
now when planning an IPO?
NYSE 38%
London Stock Exchange 34%
Nasdaq 32%
Hong Kong Stock Exchange 22%
Indian exchanges (Bombay Stock Exchange and
18%
National Stock Exchange of India)
Euronext 17%
Australian Securities Exchange 15%
Deutsche Börse 14%
Shanghai Stock Exchange 13%
Johannesburg Stock Exchange 12%
Singapore Exchange 11%
Mexican Bolsa 10%
Bovespa (Brazil) 9%
Nigeria Stock Exchange 5%
Toronto Stock Exchange 4%
Tokyo Stock Exchange 2%
Moscow Exchange 2%
Korea Exchange 2%
The biggest gains were for Indian exchanges, with 18% Although Greater China remains the primary Asian market, India
selecting those now versus 5% in 2011; Shanghai increased has seen significant increases in IPO activity after a period of
from 4% to 13%; and Brazil’s Bovespa was selected by 9% market downturn. India may also benefit from concerns by
today versus 5% in 2011. Other exchanges that became more Asian equity investors over the US’s and China’s growing trade
attractive were Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) (from 5% rift, as India is less involved in regional supply chains than other
to 15%) and Singapore Exchange (SGX) (from 6% to 11%). major Asian countries such as China and South Korea.
This change in view since 2011 reflects the strong performance
of the Indian market, particularly in 2017 and 2018, and the
growing importance of ASX and SGX as regional hubs for
Southeast Asia.
In 2017–18, 335 IPOs raised US$17.4bn, much more than The converse has applied to the DM exchanges, with significant
in the prior five years. This is due to several factors. Political decreases. Some 38% would consider NYSE for a non-domestic
stability under Narendra Modi’s government and a positive listing now versus 74% in 2011. Similarly, London has fallen from
economic outlook resulted in a number of large Indian 72% to 34%. Tokyo is now referenced by only 2% of respondents,
IPOs coming to market in recent years, most notably in the down from 12% in 2011.
insurance sector. Positive changes to the Indian capital
market regulations further contributed to IPO momentum. This clearly represents increasing recognition that EM exchanges
are growing and maturing to meet the needs of a wider
India is expected to continue generating healthy levels of population of issuers and investors. “Twenty-five-plus years ago,
IPO activity as a result of its positive economic outlook and there were really only five options: London, New York, Tokyo,
deepening domestic liquidity. The uncertainty surrounding Frankfurt and Hong Kong, for large international listings,” says
this year’s general elections, along with wider geopolitical David Erickson, senior fellow in finance at the Wharton School
factors, however, have the potential to dampen investors’ at the University of Pennsylvania. “That’s clearly changed and,
appetites for Indian stocks. with the rise of technology and reduction on restrictions, if the
access to capital is available locally, companies more often look
“The long-term prospects are very strong,” says Vikram to list locally. It’s simpler.”
Limaye, Managing Director and CEO of the National Stock
Exchange of India, “with good demographics, increasing
living standards and strong GDP growth.” He points
out, “Over the past couple of quarters, macroeconomic
indicators have weakened, but underlying earnings growth
has strengthened,” which has allowed the Indian economy
to stay resilient against the global economy headwinds.
China 55%
India 45%
US 41%
Brazil 21%
UK 18%
Germany 14%
Singapore 12%
Mexico 12%
Japan 11%
South Africa 9%
Indonesia 8%
Nigeria 7%
Russia 7%
South Korea 5%
Saudi Arabia 4%
Netherlands 3%
UAE 2%
Thailand 1%
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit
Our survey confirms the growing importance of EMs in terms of political realities and constraints in those two key markets, as
countries expected to dominate issuance by 2030 (see Figure 5). well as, possibly, increased investor interest in the broader
In 2011 we noted, “Companies from the East are expected to region. As noted by the HKEX’s Mr Fok, “we need to look at the
dominate the IPO pipeline by 2025. China was predicted by development of the economies around Asia. There are
around 80% of respondents to be the home of most new issuers significant opportunities for companies in the Southeast Asian
by 2025. India came second in terms of issuers, but third in time zone; as a block, Southeast Asia is a large growth market.”
terms of capital.” Today, China and India continue to lead,
although their expected importance has diminished This relative diminution of China and India becomes more
substantially, which may be attributable to greater recognition of pronounced when it comes to respondents’ views on which
exchanges will be considered by companies beyond a local
listing by 2030 (see Figure 6).
12 | Capital Markets in 2030 | PwC
Figure 6: Which of the following exchanges do you think issuers will consider (beyond their home exchange) in
2030 when planning an IPO?
NYSE 37%
Nasdaq 26%
London Stock Exchange 24%
Hong Kong Stock Exchange 24%
Indian exchanges (Bombay Stock Exchange
22%
and National Stock Exchange of India)
Shanghai Stock Exchange 21%
Euronext 18%
Australian Securities Exchange 15%
There has been a significant reordering in how respondents Mr Erickson believes that the reasons DM companies are
think about future cross-border issuance. In 2011, respondents pulling back from pursuing EM listings are relatively mundane:
predicted that the Shanghai market would be the leading “European companies such as Prada and L’Occitane in the past
exchange globally by 2025, and India and Brazil would follow have listed primarily on the Hong Kong market for strategic
in third and fourth places. Our current survey places these reasons in order to raise their profile in the region, as Asia was
markets in sixth, fifth and 11th place, respectively. their largest growth market. That’s much less the case these
days, and companies make the decision more on where they
New York maintains its lead, and the Nasdaq has increased are based and can be included in local indices and where
in popularity from 18% to 26%, perhaps as a reflection of the best valuation is to be had.” Equally, the establishment
technology sector dominance. Shanghai’s popularity, on the of trading mechanisms such as the Shanghai–London Stock
other hand, has fallen from 55% to 21%, and India has also Connect provides an opportunity to raise companies’ profile in
become less attractive despite its strong levels of activity over China and throughout Asia without the commitment and cost of
the past couple of years. London remains a top IPO destination a full listing.
despite the uncertainty that surrounds Brexit; investors do
not think that IPOs will dramatically shift to Euronext or the Although cross-border IPOs can be expected to play a more
Deutsche Börse. limited role in the growth of EM exchanges, other forms of
access to these markets are being actively developed.
Still heading East?
In 2011, respondents believed that not only would there be a
rapid increase in the relative scale of the EM exchanges through
local listings, but such exchanges would be increasingly
attractive as listing destinations for non-domestic companies
because of their investor base and local market opportunities.
This has not happened, however, and now only about a third of
respondents think that there would be a substantial shift in DM
companies looking to EM exchanges for their IPOs in 2030.
300m
Nevertheless, China’s fundamentals are supportive. As Mr
Erickson says, “There’s a lot of individual wealth: a population
of 1.4bn people, and ten years ago they couldn’t even buy an
equity mutual fund, as they didn’t yet exist in China. With 300m
domestic retail accounts investing in Chinese stocks, the pot of
retail money is huge.” And, although international institutional
money may have been deterred by the volatility and the lack of
regulatory progress, the phased inclusion of A-shares in MSCI
indices and the recent launching of the Shanghai–London Stock of domestic retail accounts
Connect indicate a Chinese market that is increasingly open. invest in Chinese stocks.
Figure 7: What are the most important factors when choosing a stock exchange/market for an IPO?
Liquidity 49%
Valuations 32%
Cost of listing 29%
Initial listing and ongoing legal/regulatory requirements 27%
Analyst coverage and size of investor base 22%
33%
The world has changed considerably for survey respondents
since 2011. Back then, respondents were most worried by an
uncertain regulatory environment (cited by 56%) and political of our respondents
uncertainty (33%). Now the biggest deterrents are lack of
are worried by lack
liquidity (33%) and currency volatility (29%). An uncertain
regulatory environment/corporate governance regime is cited by
of liquidity.
only 25%. What is clear is that liquidity remains the main factor
for issuers deciding on where to list (see Figure 8).
Figure 8: What are the main concerns with listing on an emerging market stock exchange?
Consistent with the finding that the cost of listing is now seen as
a more important factor when deciding on the listing destination,
the cost of going and being public has also become a more
pressing concern, with 36% of respondents citing it as a cause
for public equity markets to decline in popularity (see Figure 9).
Since 2011, emerging concepts and funding alternatives have “There’s a huge gap between the level of PE penetration in our
started changing the face of the global financial markets. Over 75% region compared with Western Europe and the US,” says Mr
of our respondents see that companies in both DMs and EMs now El-Khatib. He says that PE works in a fashion complementary to
have more choices of both public and private financing routes. public markets and is proving to be a major source of listing as the
PE houses exit, giving the examples of Hungarian road transport
Private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) have grown firm Waberer’s, the Profi supermarket chain in Romania and the
substantially in the past decade as more accessible and scalable recent IPO of Play, Poland’s second-largest mobile operator.
PE markets have developed in a period of relatively cheap debt.
More than half of our survey respondents cite PE as an attractive PE is seen as a complement to public equity, rather than simply
option (see Figure 10). as a rival, in India as well. “PE companies have been investing
large amounts of capital over the past several years, and many
PE remains largely a DM phenomenon, with the two largest are now looking for exits,” says Mr Limaye. PE firms in India
markets being the US and Europe. tend to have minority holdings of about 20 to 30%, on average.
“This is expected to result in a large number of IPO exits over the
Javier Martinez-Piqueras, Global Head of Equity Capital Markets next few years,” he adds.
at UBS, sees PE as having “refocused on its core ‘venture
capital’ mission and abandoned the pre-2008 LBO excesses,” Some see inherent advantages in PE, however, that give it an
making the role of local expertise increasingly important. He edge over public markets. “Companies don’t need to go public
says, “I would therefore not be surprised if we see an increasing so much these days to raise capital,” says Mr Erickson, citing
decentralisation and specialisation of PE firms, and EM the US$1.7tn of dry powder that the PE industry can draw on.
economies are probably positioned to benefit disproportionately China’s Ant Financial is an example of a company that has been
from this trend, given their lower starting point.” rumoured to be going public for the past year and that has raised
US$14bn from PE investors.
75%
Over “Talking to partners at VC and PE firms — why would they IPO a
company if they can sell for a similar price to another PE firm or
corporate buyer?” asks Mr Erickson. He says, “They don’t have
to worry about not maximising price in the IPO and the lockup
restrictions they will have on potential sales. And they don’t have
to worry about the quarterly reporting and other regulatory issues.”
• Nikhil Rathi,
Chief Executive of the London Stock Exchange
Katya Kuznetsova
IPO Centre
Director, PwC UK
katya.kuznetsova@pwc.com
22 | Capital Markets in 2030 | PwC
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