Wahyu

D:\SKRIPSI\Sarung.for 05-09-2019 15:56:07

Module/submodel: Forecasting/Time Series Analysis

Problem title: (untitled)
Method: Exponential Smoothing
Alpha for smoothing: .83

Errors as a function of alpha ----------

Standard
ALPHA Bias MAD MSE Error MAPE
0 -151,579 193,684 56000 250,176 ,195
,01 -138,628 189,723 52628,85 242,529 ,19
,02 -127,006 186,059 49991,88 236,375 ,185
,03 -116,578 182,65 47921,7 231,429 ,181
,04 -107,227 179,46 46288,9 227,453 ,177
,05 -98,841 176,457 44993,4 224,247 ,173
,06 -91,324 173,611 43957,86 221,652 ,169
,07 -84,586 170,901 43122,64 219,536 ,166
,08 -78,548 168,304 42441,8 217,796 ,163
,09 -73,137 165,804 41879,93 216,349 ,16
,1 -68,289 163,386 41409,73 215,131 ,158
,11 -63,944 161,039 41010,21 214,091 ,155
,12 -60,051 159,777 40665,17 213,188 ,153
,13 -56,562 159,037 40362,14 212,393 ,152
,14 -53,434 158,259 40091,44 211,679 ,151
,15 -50,628 157,441 39845,66 211,029 ,15
,16 -48,111 156,582 39619,05 210,428 ,149
,17 -45,851 155,683 39407,13 209,865 ,148
,18 -43,821 154,742 39206,46 209,33 ,147
,19 -41,994 153,762 39014,35 208,816 ,146
,2 -40,35 152,742 38828,73 208,319 ,145
,21 -38,868 151,685 38647,99 207,834 ,144
,22 -37,53 150,593 38470,93 207,357 ,143
,23 -36,319 149,466 38296,55 206,887 ,142
,24 -35,223 148,307 38124,19 206,42 ,141
,25 -34,226 147,118 37953,3 205,957 ,14
,26 -33,319 145,901 37783,51 205,496 ,138
,27 -32,491 144,659 37614,55 205,036 ,137
,28 -31,732 143,393 37446,27 204,577 ,136
,29 -31,035 142,203 37278,55 204,118 ,135
,3 -30,392 141,295 37111,4 203,66 ,134
,31 -29,797 140,349 36944,84 203,203 ,134
,32 -29,243 139,764 36778,93 202,746 ,133
,33 -28,727 139,216 36613,77 202,29 ,133
,34 -28,242 138,638 36449,47 201,836 ,132
,35 -27,786 138,034 36286,21 201,383 ,132
,36 -27,354 137,407 36124,13 200,933 ,131
,37 -26,944 136,757 35963,38 200,485 ,131
,38 -26,553 136,089 35804,15 200,041 ,13
,39 -26,178 135,404 35646,64 199,601 ,129
,4 -25,817 134,703 35491,01 199,164 ,129
,41 -25,469 134,378 35337,44 198,733 ,129
,42 -25,131 134,168 35186,1 198,307 ,128
,43 -24,802 134,223 35037,18 197,887 ,128
,44 -24,48 134,259 34890,83 197,473 ,129
,45 -24,166 134,276 34747,22 197,066 ,129
,46 -23,858 134,276 34606,48 196,667 ,129
,47 -23,554 134,532 34468,77 196,275 ,129
,48 -23,255 134,768 34334,23 195,892 ,129
,49 -22,959 134,984 34202,97 195,517 ,129
,5 -22,667 135,18 34075,12 195,151 ,13
,51 -22,378 135,357 33950,78 194,795 ,13
,52 -22,09 135,517 33830,04 194,448 ,13
,53 -21,806 135,658 33713,02 194,112 ,13
,54 -21,523 135,784 33599,77 193,785 ,13
,55 -21,241 135,893 33490,38 193,469 ,13
,56 -20,962 135,987 33384,89 193,165 ,13
,57 -20,683 136,066 33283,39 192,871 ,131
,58 -20,406 136,132 33185,9 192,588 ,131
,59 -20,131 136,183 33092,47 192,317 ,131
,6 -19,857 136,222 33003,16 192,057 ,131
,61 -19,584 136,248 32917,97 191,809 ,131
,62 -19,312 136,262 32836,93 191,573 ,131
,63 -19,042 136,265 32760,05 191,348 ,131
,64 -18,773 136,257 32687,37 191,136 ,131
,65 -18,506 136,237 32618,88 190,936 ,131
,66 -18,24 136,207 32554,57 190,747 ,131
,67 -17,975 136,168 32494,46 190,571 ,131
,68 -17,712 136,118 32438,54 190,407 ,131
,69 -17,451 136,06 32386,78 190,255 ,131
,7 -17,191 135,992 32339,22 190,115 ,131
,71 -16,934 135,915 32295,8 189,988 ,131
,72 -16,678 135,83 32256,54 189,872 ,131
,73 -16,424 135,737 32221,39 189,769 ,131
,74 -16,172 135,635 32190,35 189,677 ,131
,75 -15,922 135,526 32163,4 189,598 ,131
,76 -15,675 135,408 32140,52 189,53 ,131
,77 -15,43 135,284 32121,67 189,475 ,131
,78 -15,187 135,152 32106,86 189,431 ,131
,79 -14,946 135,012 32096,03 189,399 ,13
,8 -14,708 134,866 32089,18 189,379 ,13
,81 -14,472 134,713 32086,29 189,37 ,13
,82 -14,239 134,552 32087,31 189,373 ,13
,83 -14,008 134,385 32092,25 189,388 ,13
,84 -13,78 134,212 32101,06 189,414 ,13
,85 -13,555 134,031 32113,74 189,451 ,13
,86 -13,333 133,844 32130,26 189,5 ,13
,87 -13,113 133,65 32150,6 189,56 ,129
,88 -12,896 133,449 32174,74 189,631 ,129
,89 -12,682 133,242 32202,68 189,714 ,129
,9 -12,471 133,029 32234,4 189,807 ,129
,91 -12,263 132,809 32269,87 189,911 ,129
,92 -12,058 132,582 32309,11 190,027 ,129
,93 -11,855 132,348 32352,09 190,153 ,128
,94 -11,656 132,108 32398,81 190,29 ,128
,95 -11,46 131,862 32449,28 190,439 ,128
,96 -11,267 131,608 32503,49 190,598 ,128
,97 -11,077 131,348 32561,44 190,767 ,128
,98 -10,891 131,081 32623,15 190,948 ,127
,99 -10,707 130,807 32688,63 191,14 ,127
1 -10,526 130,526 32757,89 191,342 ,127