Lok Sabha 2019 Forecast

Salil Shetty, 1 May 2019

Congress and Allies BJP and Allies
Total
States Cong + BJP +
Seats Cong Allies BJP Allies
Allies Allies
Uttar Pradesh 80 5 45 50 28 2 30
Maharashtra 48 8 12 20 22 6 28
West Bengal 42 1 35 36 6 0 6
Bihar 40 5 15 20 12 8 20
Tamil Nadu 39 5 25 30 1 8 9
Madhya Pradesh 29 14 0 14 15 0 15
Karnataka 28 12 6 18 10 0 10
Gujarat 26 6 0 6 20 0 20
Rajasthan 25 11 0 11 14 0 14
Andhra* 25 1 8 9 0 16 16
Odisha** 21 1 0 1 2 18 20
Kerala 20 13 6 19 1 0 1
Telengana*** 17 1 0 1 0 16 16
Jharkhand 14 8 3 11 2 1 3
Assam 14 3 2 5 8 1 9
Punjab 13 6 2 8 2 3 5
Chattisgarh 11 9 0 9 2 0 2
Haryana 10 3 1 4 3 3 6
Delhi 7 0 1 1 6 0 6
J&K 6 0 4 4 2 0 2
Uttarakhand 5 1 0 1 4 0 4
Himachal 4 1 0 1 3 0 3
Goa 2 0 0 0 1 1 2
Sub Total 526 114 165 279 164 83 247

UT's 6 1 2 3 1 2 3
North East 11 2 3 5 3 3 6
Sub Total 17 3 5 8 4 5 9

GRAND TOTAL 543 117 170 287 168 88 256

* Assumed Jagan goes with BJP

** Assumed Naveen Patnaik goes with BJP
*** Assumed KCR goes with BJP
 With Opposition getting minimum 287 seats, possible scenarios are a Mayawati or Rahul led Govt.
 Estimates are deliberately conservative. I see this as a worse case scenario for the Opposition
 My figures are based on assessments from the ground for the Hindi belt where I have been travelling
for the last couple of months at the constituency level
 For the other big states i.e. Maharashtra, WB and TN, I have relied on local sources.
 For the smaller States, North East and UT's, I have used secondary analysis
 Congress+Allies may do better in TN and elsewhere but might fare worse for example, in Maharashra
and Rajasthan but this should even out
 Focus has been on total seats for the principal party & allies, not the exact division between them