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Number and Location of Sensors for

Real-Time Network Traffic


Estimation and Prediction
Sensitivity Analysis

Stacy M. Eisenman, Xiang Fei, Xuesong Zhou, and Hani S. Mahmassani

Installing and maintaining sensors in a transportation network can be fic (CHART) network between Washington, D.C., and Baltimore,
expensive. The motivation for this research is finding the best way to Maryland. The study also provides a conceptual framework for the
deploy finite resources and generate a network detection system in a sensor location problem and a theoretical description of the objectives
manner that produces minimal estimation errors. The analysis uses a associated with the sensor location problem.
simulation-based real-time network traffic estimation and prediction The sensitivity analysis of the estimation and prediction quality
system based on dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) methodology to ana- is conducted with the DYNASMART-X (1) real-time DTA system.
lyze different levels of detection and different sensor locations in a por- The analysis considers both randomly generated location scenarios
tion of the Chesapeake Highway Advisories Routing Traffic (CHART) and scenarios based on engineering judgment. The latter considers
network (between Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, Maryland). This placing detectors on high-volume links on the main freeways and
study provides a conceptual framework of the sensor location problem arterials. Taken together, the two sets of scenarios provide a useful
and a theoretical description of the objectives associated with the sensor insight into the robustness of real-time DTA estimation and predic-
location problem. A sensitivity analysis of the estimation and prediction tion and the effect of location-specific considerations on estimation
quality with the DYNASMART-X real-time DTA system in relation to and prediction quality.
sensor number and location is conducted in the Maryland CHART net-
work. The analysis considers both randomly generated location scenar- BACKGROUND
ios and scenarios based on engineering judgment. The analysis reveals
the importance of providing detection in specific locations of the network The sensor location problem is a complex optimization problem that
and the dependence of the value of additional detection on the specific can be difficult to solve because of its size and the fact that an optimal
location selected. solution may not exist. Previous work by Yang et al. (2) on the choice
of detector location focused on bounding the origin–destination (O-D)
error in the estimation of network performance. The idea is to limit
Availability of real-time information on system status, enabled by
the O-D estimation error by locating traffic-counting stations so that
sensor deployment and advanced communications, is an integral ele-
a certain portion of the trips between any O-D pair is observed for
ment of intelligent transportation systems. Information from various
at least one link of their path. This principle is referred to as the O-D
types of sensors deployed to monitor network conditions is used for
covering rule.
traffic management, operations, and control purposes. Installing and
Extension of this work by Yang and Zhou (3) framed the problem
maintaining sensors and the associated communications infrastruc-
as an optimization problem focused on maximizing the total net
ture in a transportation network can be expensive. The motivation for
observed traffic flows. This optimization is then constrained by the
the research described is to make cost-effective decisions on deploy-
O-D covering rule (2). This approach is referred to as the maximal
ing sensors in a network to support traffic management functions,
flow-intercepting rule and link independence rule.
particularly real-time traffic status estimation and prediction.
Additional work by Bianco et al. (4) proposes an iterative two-
The research is conducted with particular reference to the detec-
stage procedure that focuses on maximizing coverage in terms of
tion requirements of a simulation-based real-time network traffic
geographical connectivity and size of O-D demand population.
estimation and prediction system based on dynamic traffic assign-
The general approach used to address this problem relies on heuris-
ment (DTA) methodology. It provides an investigation of the sensi-
tics, especially greedy algorithms (2). These algorithms essentially
tivity of the quality of estimation and prediction to the number and
seek to find the most important location first and locate a sensor there.
location of sensors in a traffic network. The specific network con-
Then a second-most-important location is found and the algorithm
sidered is part of the Chesapeake Highway Advisories Routing Traf-
continues until reaching a prespecified termination criterion (number
of sensors or no significant improvement).
Maryland Transportation Initiative, Department of Civil and Environmental Engi-
neering, University of Maryland, 3130 Jeong H. Kim Engineering Building, College CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
Park, MD 20742-3021.

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, The sensor location problem could be viewed from the perspective
No. 1964, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, of the value of information. Sensors continuously provide infor-
D.C., 2006, pp. 253–259. mation that helps characterize the status of the network. Using this

253
254 Transportation Research Record 1964

information in conjunction with knowledge (i.e., historical data, pre- limiting constraint on the number of detectors. In DYNASMART-X,
vious estimation or prediction outputs) could enhance a model’s the sensor information is used in the ODE and ODP modules and
estimation and prediction performance (see Figure 1). Adding sen- in STCC and LTCC tasks. One of the most important capabilities
sors to the network at specific locations could be evaluated for the of a real-time traffic simulation system is to estimate and predict
additional value that these sensors would provide to the ability to time-varying O-D demand adaptively with incoming real-time traf-
estimate and predict network flow patterns (e.g., O-D demand, path fic sensor data. Given status-mapping matrices, Kalman filter process
flows, link flows, point speeds), provide travel time information, or noise variance–covariance matrices, and measurement noise variance–
provide better control strategies. covariance matrices, the current implementation of O-D estimation
DYNASMART-X is a simulation-based real-time network traf- and prediction in DYNASMART-X aims to incorporate additional
fic estimation and prediction system that relies on DTA methodol- information from newly added detectors to minimize the network per-
ogy. This model system is dependent on two types of information: formance uncertainty. Thus, the importance of a sensor depends on the
a priori information (historical data, previous estimation or predic- value of information or knowledge that it can bring to the problem.
tion outputs) and real-time information (sensor data). The model is Given a priori information, one can estimate additional information
a continuous learning model in that it receives real-time information as follows:
and uses an iterative process to incorporate this information and
improve the quality of estimation and prediction (5, pp. 305–328). D = D− + ξ (1)
The algorithmic component of the DYNASMART-X system con-
sists of five modules: status estimation, status prediction, O-D esti- where
mation (ODE), O-D prediction (ODP), and consistency checking and
updating. The purpose of the status estimation module (RT-DYNA) D= estimate,
is to estimate the current traffic status in the network. The status pre- D− = a priori mean,
diction module (P-DYNA), in contrast, provides future network ξ= estimation error, and
traffic status for a predefined horizon. The ODE module is respon- ξ∼ Normal (0, P −), where P − is the a priori variance–covariance
sible for estimating the coefficients of a time-varying polynomial matrix.
function that describes the evolution of the O-D demand process Depending on the desired estimate, a priori mean and variance
from the current stage to the next stage. The ODP module utilizes estimates, D− and P−, could be calculated from multiple data sources.
time to calculate the demand that is generated from each origin to Whether one is interested in estimating O-D, path flows, link flows,
each destination at each departure time interval of the current and point-to-point travel times, or point speeds, this information could
future stages. Finally, the consistency-checking module is responsi- come from static estimation and real-world observations from the
ble for minimizing the deviation or discrepancy between what is existing detectors. Regardless of the underlying estimation formu-
estimated by the system and what is occurring in the real world in lations or methods (ordinary least squares or Kalman filtering) and
an effort to control error propagation. DYNASMART-X imple- the original information sources, the current estimate can be also
ments two levels of consistency checking: short term and long term. characterized by its mean and variance statistics.
The short-term consistency checking (STCC) compares the link In essence, the sensor location problem is more than a simple cov-
densities and speeds of the simulator to evaluate the consistency of erage problem. Even if the entire network could be covered by only
the flow propagation with the real world and correct the simulated a few detectors, one would not be able to infer all information about
speeds. The long-term consistency checking (LTCC) calculates the network because the inferred values might be unreliable esti-
scaling factors that are applied to time-dependent O-D demand in mates as a result of a limited number of observations. In this case,
the next running instance of RT-DYNA. An updating function goes more sensors must be located at critical points to enhance estimation
in parallel with the STCC and LTCC tasks. reliability.
Ideally, one would want sensors on all the links in the network. This In the Kalman filter framework, the simulated sensor matrix (H) can
abundance would reduce the error associated with the status estima- be used to map sensor measurements to the estimate (D). The goal
tion to the system error. Focusing on the sensor location problem, the of the sensor location problem would then be to determine a set
goal is to identify the locations that provide the most value given a of links with additional measurements (C ) that minimize the un-
certainty of the resulting covariance matrix (P +). The set of links (C)
that have sensors (observation links) can be defined as follows:
Sensor
Information C = H × D+ (2)
Estimation
where the objective is to find C that minimizes P + and
H = simulated link proportions;
 = measurement error,  ∼ Normal (0,R);
“Knowledge” R = measurement variance, and
P+ = (posterior) variance–covariance matrix.
In summary, the sensor location problem can be viewed as a traf-
fic status learning process that needs more sensors to add valuable
Prediction
information that can be used to update estimates (in terms of mean
and variance) of the network traffic status. The key question here is
how to characterize the value of additional information from a new
FIGURE 1 Estimation and prediction enhancement information. detector in traffic status estimation and prediction.
Eisenman, Fei, Zhou, and Mahmassani 255

The updating stage in traffic status estimation and prediction also to learn how their location affects estimation and prediction
involves the calculation of the weighting matrix (gain factor): performance.
Two types of analyses were conducted. First a number of random
K = P − H T ( HP − H T + R )
−1
(3) detector location scenarios were generated and analyzed. This set of
analyses illustrates how the number of detectors in the network can
Considering the weighting matrix that is produced in the updat- influence the estimation and prediction results and also how distri-
ing processes, one should note that this process provides a way to bution in the network can produce various results. A second set of
produce the a posteriori mean and covariance estimates: detector location scenarios was generated by using engineering judg-
ment to place detectors on high-volume links, focusing on the main
D + = D − + K (C − HD − ) (4) freeways and arterials.
There are four components to this section. First, to clarify the
P + = ( I − KH ) P − (5) analysis, a description of the development and features of the Mary-
land CHART network is presented. In the second section the proce-
where I is the identity matrix. dure used to construct the detector information when observation data
The foregoing covariance updating formula clearly links the a pri- were not available is explained. The third section reviews the differ-
ori uncertainty and a posteriori uncertainty, and KH measures the ent measures that are used in the analyses, and the fourth presents
degree of uncertainty reduction due to inclusion of new measure- descriptions and results pertaining to the different scenarios that were
ments. New measurements can come from a single detector or multi- analyzed.
ple detectors. KH can be viewed as a matrix specifying the value of
additional information.
There are several details to note about the weighting matrix K. First, Maryland CHART Network Description
it is the product of P −H. The a priori variance–covariance matrix (P −)
indicates the current uncertainty level for each unknown variable The applicable portion of the CHART network in Maryland was
and the covariance between different unknown variables. The sensor developed for use in real-time traffic management. The study area
matrix (H ) connects link observations to the unknown values. If a link is concentrated around the I-95 corridor between Washington, D.C.,
can intercept a value with a large variance or it can intercept more than and Baltimore. The network is bounded by I-695 to the north, I-495
one unknown variable, the product of P −H is more likely to be large to the south, US-29 to the west, and I-295 to the east. The network
and more uncertainty reductions are obtainable. includes four main freeways (I-95, I-295, I-495, and I-695) as well
The second detail about the weighting matrix K is the inverse of as two main arterials (US-29 and US-1). The Maryland CHART
HP −H T. If one only considers HH T for multiple possible sensors, the network reduces to 2,182 nodes, 3,387 links, and 111 zones. It also
inverse of HH T specifies the correlation of measurements among includes 262 signals. Figure 2 shows the Maryland CHART network
multiple links. Furthermore, HP −H T describes the measurement cor- and signal locations.
relation on the basis of existing estimated variance and covariance. Within the study are only 14 existing detectors. Twelve of the detec-
If HP −H T is large, meaning that either new sensor data could be highly tors are located on I-95 and two are located on I-495. These detectors
correlated with each other or they are correlated with the current esti-
collect and report data in 5-min intervals. This detector information
mate, the inverse is small and the weight factor becomes insignificant.
can be obtained from the Center for Advanced Transportation Tech-
It should be recalled that generalized linear regression (GLS) has
nology (CATT), the Maryland Department of Transportation, and
the same term (HP −H T )−1, indicating the extent of information or
the Maryland State Highway Administration. Information describing
knowledge obtained from observations.
The third detail to note is the inverse of R. Clearly, the more mea-
surement error, the less uncertainty reduction there will be for the
estimates.
This theoretical discussion is intended primarily to frame the
analysis conducted in the next section and to provide a framework I-695
for thinking about and understanding the sensor location problem of
interest. Attempts to solve the optimization problem implied in this
discussion would be prohibitive from a computational standpoint in
anything other than small contrived networks, hence the motivation I-95
to explore systematically the properties of the solution set to the US 29

problem to inform practical decisions on where to locate a limited


number of sensors in a network.
I-295

SENSOR LOCATION ANALYSIS I-495


Rte 1
A sensitivity analysis is presented of estimation and prediction
quality in relation to both sensor location and level of sensor cov-
erage in a network. The analysis is conducted with the simulation-
based DYNASMART-X real-time network traffic estimation and
prediction system on the Maryland CHART network. The purpose
is to explore the significance of adding detectors to the network and FIGURE 2 Maryland CHART network.
256 Transportation Research Record 1964

detector location as well as detector data are available from the CATT where
laboratory website (6).
Cl,t = observed density for link l during time interval t (ground
Each detector data file contains timestamp information, detector
truth output),
location, traffic direction, vehicle counts, vehicles per hour, speeds,
C′l,t = simulated density for link l during time interval t (simulated
and percent occupancy. Sensors collect 24-h data in 5-min intervals.
output),
The percent occupancy refers to the percentage of time the detector L = set of links used in statistical calculations,
was occupied during the 5-min interval. The speed is the average ⎟ L⎟ = total number of links in set, and
speed recorded over the 5-min interval. The vehicle count is the T = number of time intervals.
number of vehicles observed during the 5-min interval. Vehicles per
hour is the 5-min vehicle count converted to an hourly flow rate In a given scenario, the RMSE is calculated across all links and
[e.g., for a 5-min vehicle count of 120 vehicles/h: (120 vehicles/ across all time intervals.
5 min) * (60 min/h) = 1,440 vehicles/h].
The DYNASMART-X prototype is calibrated and evaluated
according to its overall system functionality rather than its individ- Detector Analysis Results
ual modules by using the available data, with possible enrichment
Each set of experiments was performed with a 6-h simulation, from
from other sources. The primary areas of calibration and evaluation
4:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. To ensure that network loading and network
are traffic estimation, traffic prediction, consistency checking and
discharge did not unduly influence the results, the analysis period
updating, and O-D estimation and prediction. Calibration and eval-
was reduced to 5 h (4:30 to 9:30 a.m.).
uation are performed at the overall system level. Calibration itself is
In the development of the sensor location scenarios, a few con-
separated into two types: a priori calibration of structural relations
straints were placed on the selection process. First the links sorted
and real-time adaptive updating of the calibrated models and param-
on the basis of flow and the links with higher flow were considered
eter values. For these purposes a set of real-time preprocessed data
to be more attractive. In addition, when consecutive links did not
was developed from the CATT laboratory databases by the Maryland
have access points between them, only one of the links was selected.
Transportation Initiative DTA group. Necessary checking and judg-
Also, if a link was selected for sensor location, the two upstream and
ment were exercised to retain consistency between the raw data and
downstream links were selected for sensor placement. The two rules
the preprocessed data. Data for the 14 links with reliable real-time
were implemented to reduce correlation in the selected links and
data were processed for October 28 and November 1–5, 2004. These
produce larger coverage of the network. The adjacency rules were
data were used as the basis of the network calibration and validation.
not applied to ramps that connected to freeway links that had sensors.
These selection constraints will be referred to as filters.
Experiment Data Synthesis

For the experiments conducted in this research, real-time data avail- Random Sensor Location Analysis
able were limited. Therefore experimental data that are used to
The first set of experiments focused on 20 scenarios in which sensors
mimic real-time sensor information were synthesized with a DTA
were placed in the network on the basis of random selection. (The
methodology (i.e., DYNASMART-P).
selection of the sensor locations was not entirely random in that they
To start, there is an O-D demand table, which includes actual link
were selected at random from a subset of filtered links. This subset
counts and a historical static demand table to estimate the O-D traffic
included the top 220 links sorted by link flow and filtered to meet the
demand matrix. This matrix is treated as the ground truth for exper- selection constraints.) The 20 scenarios are described as follows:
imental purposes. The ground truth O-D demand is loaded onto the
network with a DTA simulation program to generate both link counts • Scenarios 1–5: 5 runs with 20 detectors chosen randomly from
and density (simulated link measurements). The values become the the top 220 filtered detectors,
sensor data or observations in the synthetic data set. • Scenarios 6–10: 5 runs with 30 detectors chosen randomly
To ensure the internal consistency between link flow measure- from the top 220 filtered detectors,
ments and density measurements, this study uses simulated link mea- • Scenarios 11–15: 5 runs with 40 detectors chosen randomly
surements as estimation input instead of the actual link observations from the top 220 filtered detectors, and
from the field data. • Scenarios 16–20: 5 runs with 80 detectors chosen randomly
from the top 220 filtered detectors.

Analysis Measures Figure 3 shows a plot of the RMSE for the estimation and pre-
diction in each of the scenarios. From the plot one can observe the
To interpret the influence of a given set of sensors on the ability to effects of the random location selection. Within each level of detec-
estimate and predict network flow patterns, the root-mean-square tion (i.e., 20, 30, 40, and 80 detectors) the random locations clearly
error (RMSE) of the link densities will be calculated for all of the produced variations in the results. In terms of estimation, Scenario 1
links in the network. (Generation links will not be included in these (20 detectors) is performing the worst, followed by Scenario 6
calculations.) The calculation is as follows: (30 detectors) and Scenario 2 (20 detectors). Also in terms of esti-
mation, Scenario 16 (80 detectors) is performing the best, fol-
∑ (C − Cl′,t )
2
lowed by Scenario 3 (20 detectors) and Scenario 5 (20 detectors).
l ,t
Figure 4a–f shows the locations of these detectors in the network.
RMSE =
l ,t

L ×T The fact that two of the top three best and worst scenarios in this
Eisenman, Fei, Zhou, and Mahmassani 257

RMSE (density)

Scenario Label

RMSE (Est. density) RMSE (Pred_5min) RMSE (Pred_10min)


RMSE (Pred_15min) RMSE (Pred_20min)

FIGURE 3 RMSE for randomly selected sensor locations.

analysis have 20 detectors emphasizes the value of good detector • Scenario 27: top 10 links on I-95 SB and I-95 NB and top 10 links
placement. Given the ability to place 20 detectors in the network, one on eastbound and westbound cross roads (40 links total);
would aim to place them to achieve the best results and not misplace • Scenario 28: top 10 links on I-95 SB and I-95 NB, top 5 links on
them and obtain the worst. I-295 SB and I-295 NB, and top 5 links on eastbound and westbound
In the case of the three worst scenarios (Figure 4a–c), each lacks cross roads (40 links total); and
significant coverage on I-95 (the freeway with the most traffic). Sce- • Scenario 29: top 10 links on I-95 SB, I-95 NB, I-295 SB,
nario 6 is performing the best out of the three and has the most cov- I-295 NB, US-1 SB, US-1 NB, US-29 SB, and US-29 NB (80 links
erage on I-95 as well as 10 additional detectors. An examination of total).
the three best scenarios also reveals a few commonalities. The most
obvious is that each of these scenarios provides significant detection Figure 5 shows a plot of the RMSE for the estimation and predic-
on I-495 (the east–west freeway at the southern edge of the network). tion for each of the scenarios. The results of this analysis are interest-
In addition, each of these scenarios appears to provide detection at or ing. The set of scenarios was developed to allow for the exploration
around freeway access points throughout the network. of trade-offs in locating the detectors on different freeways, arterials,
and cross roads. With this in mind, comparing Scenario 21 (10 links
on I-95 SB and I-95 NB) and Scenario 22 (5 links on I-95 SB, I-95 NB,
Judgment-Based Sensor Location Analysis I-295 SB, and I-295 NB), both 20-detector scenarios, one can con-
clude that locating detectors on I-95 is more valuable than placing
The second set of detector location scenarios was generated by using them on I-295. This result is consistent with the trends observed in
engineering judgment to place detectors on high-volume links, the random selection analysis.
focusing on the main freeways and arterials. This set of scenario The next sets of comparisons provide less obvious insights. A com-
analyses should reveal the benefits of adding additional detectors to parison between Scenario 21 and Scenario 23 or 24 shows that Sce-
specific areas in the network. This analysis includes the nine sce- narios 23 and 24 produce no significant changes in performance even
narios described as follows (each of the scenarios conforms to the though there are more detectors. The additional detectors in this sce-
filtering criteria): nario were placed on an arterial with much lower volume, and the
detectors could not produce the same level of performance even though
• Scenario 21: top 10 links on I-95 southbound (SB) and I-95 there were more of them. A similar result is obtained with Scenario 26,
northbound (NB) (20 links total); whose performance does not improve over that of Scenario 25. This
• Scenario 22: top 5 links on I-95 SB, I-95 NB, I-295 SB, and result can be credited to the reduction in detectors on I-95.
I-295 NB (20 links total); Scenarios 22 and 24 are subsets of Scenario 26. Scenario 26 per-
• Scenario 23: top 10 links on I-95 SB and I-95 NB and top 5 links forms the worst but has the most detection, whereas Scenario 22 per-
on I-295 SB and I-295 NB (30 links total); forms the best and has the least detection. The explanation for this
• Scenario 24: top 5 links on I-95 SB, I-95 NB, I-295 SB, I-295 NB, finding is that the additional detectors were placed on arterials with
US-1 SB and US-1 NB (30 links total); much lower volume and the model is in conflict in trying to match
• Scenario 25: top 10 links on I-95 SB and I-95 NB and top 5 links both the freeway and arterial detector information. An approach that
on eastbound and westbound cross roads (30 links total); can be used to accommodate this conflict and the model’s ability to
• Scenario 26: top 5 links on I-95 SB, I-95 NB, I-295 SB, I-295 NB, best manage this situation would be to provide a weighting scheme
US-1 SB, US-1 NB, US-29 SB, and US-29 NB (40 links total); that placed a high value on links with higher volume.
258 Transportation Research Record 1964

(a) (b)

(c) (d)

(e) (f)

FIGURE 4 Sensor locations for (a) Scenario 1, (b) Scenario 6, (c) Scenario 2, (d) Scenario 16, (e) Scenario 3, and (f ) Scenario 5.
Eisenman, Fei, Zhou, and Mahmassani 259

13

12.5

12
RMSE (density)
11.5

11

10.5

10

9.5

9
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
Scenario Label

RMSE(Est Density) RMSE(Pred_5min) RMSE(Pred_10min)


RMSE(Pred_15min) RMSE(Pred_20min)

FIGURE 5 RMSE for judgment-based sensor locations.

Scenario 29 is a scenario with 80 detectors. Scenario 26 is a subset to allocate resources so as to generate a network detection system
of this scenario. As is expected, Scenario 29 outperforms Scenario 26. in a manner that produces minimal estimation errors and minimal
In this case, critical freeway detectors were added on I-95 and I-295 equipment costs.
in addition to the detectors on the minor arterials US-1 and US-29. The conceptual framework presented interprets the sensor loca-
Scenarios 25, 27, and 28 all consider the addition of detectors to tion problem as a value-of-information problem, which leads to
east–west cross roads. Again, the results imply that the addition of interpretation-with-learning process models. The analysis provided
detectors on lower-volume arterials produces a decline in estimation several valuable insights about the process of selecting the locations
performance. for sensors in a network. The difficulty of determining the best loca-
Overall, these results suggest that high-volume freeways are more tions on the basis of judgment alone is an important caveat of the
valuable as sensor locations than low-volume arterials. The analy- study. A second valuable result was the heavy emphasis on improve-
sis also suggests that increasing the number of detectors on freeways ment added by placing sensors on high-volume freeways. Additional
is valuable. analysis and methodological approaches to solve the problem articu-
lated remain part of the research agenda as ongoing research.

Joint Analysis Results


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