Qualitative Decision Making

Tools & Techniques

Decision Making

Ata ul Musawir
Group vs. Individual Decision Making
 Group vs. Individual Decision Making

• Advantages of group decision making

• Clarification of the decision problem or opportunity
• Pooling of resources and expertise
• Broad range of alternatives identified
• Effects of individual biases mitigated
• Greater decision acceptance by stakeholders

• Disadvantages of group decision making

• Wasted time
• Group conflicts and politics
• Excessive influence by group leaders and influential members
• Groupthink
• Bounded awareness in groups

• Conclusion: neither groups nor individuals are always superior

 Group vs. Individual Decision Making

• Groups can begin to lose their effectiveness and ability to make good quality
decisions if they have too many members

• Keep your group small – four to seven members – to maximize effectiveness

 Qualitative Tools & Techniques for Improving
Individual and Group Decision Making
1. Brainstorming with Mind Maps
2. Brainstorming with Affinity Diagrams
3. Nominal Group Technique
4. Stepladder Technique
5. Delphi Method
6. The Six Thinking Hats Technique
7. PESTLE Analysis
8. SWOT Analysis and TOWS Matrix
9. Stakeholder Impact Analysis
10. Pareto Analysis with Pareto Charts
11. Cause and Effect Analysis with Ishikawa/Fishbone Diagrams
12. The Futures Wheel
13. Force Field Analysis
 1. Brainstorming with Mind Maps
• Brainstorming is an idea generation and discussion technique which involves
gathering a list of ideas spontaneously contributed by group members. It provides a
free and open environment that encourages everyone to participate. Brainstorming is
useful when:
• You want to develop an initial list of creative ideas about a topic
• You want to encourage group members to participate and be creative
• The problem is complex and/or has several possible solutions

• A mind map is a diagram used to visually organize information. It is often created

around a single concept, drawn as an image in the center of a blank page. Major ideas
are connected directly to the central concept, and other ideas branch out from those
major ideas.

• Mind maps help to organize and relate ideas generated through brainstorming.

• Brainstorming with mind maps should ideally be conducted in groups but can also be
conducted on an individual basis.

• Software and templates: ‘branching’ format (see example) and XMind software.
1. Brainstorming with Mind Maps: Example

Credit: MindTools®
1. Brainstorming with Mind Maps: Example

Credit: MindTools®
1. Brainstorming with Mind Maps: Example

Credit: MindTools®
1. Brainstorming with Mind Maps: Example

Credit: MindTools®
1. Brainstorming with Mind Maps: Example 2
1. Brainstorming with Mind Maps: Example 3
1. Brainstorming with Mind Maps: Example 4
 2. Brainstorming with Affinity Diagrams
• A pool of ideas, generated from a brainstorming session, needs to be analyzed,
prioritized before they can be implemented. A smaller set of ideas are easy to sift
through and evaluate without applying any formal technique.

• Affinity diagramming is an effective technique to handle a large number of ideas.

They help decision makers make sense of ideas generated through brainstorming and
organize the ideas into themes.

• Affinity diagrams are useful when:

• There is a large number of ideas generated that need to be classified (e.g. according to
business function) and prioritized
• Ideas generated involve a high level of complexity and need to be communicated in a clear
and easily understandable manner
• There is a need to assign responsibilities for action on proposed ideas

• Brainstorming using affinity diagrams should ideally be conducted in groups but can
also be conducted on an individual basis.

• Software and templates: various options available for free online (e.g. Edraw).
 2. Brainstorming with Affinity Diagrams

Example: Step 1 – Brainstorming ideas to improve customer service at a pizza restaurant

 2. Brainstorming with Affinity Diagrams

Example: Step 2 – Classifying the ideas according to themes and business functions
 Activity
1. As a group, brainstorm ideas on how Riphah International University can be
improved. You may provide suggestions regarding any aspect of the university.

2. Create the mind map using the XMind software.

3. Develop an affinity diagram based on your mind map. Categorize each

suggestion under the relevant functional unit of Riphah that can address the
suggestion.
 3. Nominal Group Technique
• Nominal Group Technique (NGT) is a structured a group discussion used to
generate ideas, evaluate them, and reach consensus on one or more options.

• NGT involves:
1. Gathering ideas – moderator presents a problem or question, group member then silently
and independently generates ideas and writes them down
2. Recording ideas – moderator collects ideas from each group member and writes them
down on a flipchart or other display tool
3. Discussing ideas – each recorded idea is discussed and everyone is free to share their
suggestions and opinions on the clarity, relevance, and importance of the ideas
4. Voting on ideas – moderator presents a shortlist of ideas, members vote privately on their
top 3 or 5 ideas and then share their rankings with the moderator, the 3 or 5 ideas with
the most votes by group members are selected (can be discussed further if needed)

• NGT is useful for:

• Reaching group consensus on a topic (using this structured approach is especially useful
when the topic is controversial and tends to spark conflicts between members)
• Evaluating and filtering down several ideas into a shortlist of alternatives
• Allowing all group members (introvert and extravert, old and new, senior and junior) to get
an equal chance to contribute to the discussion
• Limiting the influence of one or more highly vocal individuals
3. Nominal Group Technique
3. Nominal Group Technique
 Activity
1. On an individual basis, take 5 minutes to come up with one actionable
suggestion for improving employee motivation in your field. No discussion is
allowed.

2. Each student will present his/her idea to the moderator.

3. Each idea will be discussed one by one by the group to determine if it is

relevant and should be shortlisted. If there are any similar or overlapping ideas,
they will be merged. Once this process is complete, a shortlist of ideas will be
developed.

4. Among the shortlist of ideas, each group member will independently

determine the three (or five) ideas that they think are most relevant. They will
then inform the moderators of their selected top three (or top five) ideas.

5. The moderator will tally the votes for each idea, based on which the best
idea(s) will be determined.
 4. Stepladder Technique
• The Stepladder Technique is a simple tool that manages how members enter the
decision-making group.

• The Stepladder Technique process involves:

• Step 1: Present a task or problem to all members. Give everyone sufficient time to think about
what needs to be done and to form their own opinions on how to best address the task or problem.
• Step 2: Form a core group of two members. Have them discuss the problem.
• Step 3: Add a third group member to the core group. The third member presents ideas to the first
two members before hearing the ideas that have already been discussed. After all three members
have laid out their solutions and ideas, they discuss their options together.
• Step 4: Repeat the same process by adding a fourth member, and so on, to the group.
• Step 5: Reach a final decision after all members have been brought in and presented their ideas.

• The Stepladder Technique encourages all group members to contribute on an

individual level before being influenced by anyone else. This results in a wider variety
of ideas, it prevents people from hiding within the group, and it helps people avoid
being overpowered by stronger, louder group members.

• Software and templates: process-oriented technique using steps described above (see
following diagram), no template or specific software needed.
4. Stepladder Technique
 5. Delphi Method
• The Delphi Method is a process involving several rounds of questionnaires sent to a
panel of experts.

• The Delphi Method involves:

1. An objective facilitator sends out questionnaires on a particular topic to the experts (by
hand, mail, e-mail, etc.).
2. Responses from experts are kept anonymous, then aggregated by the facilitator and
results shared with all experts. This completes one ‘round’ of questionnaires.
3. The experts are then allowed to adjust their initial answers based on the results of the
previous round.
4. The rounds are repeated until all experts reach a consensus on a particular solution.

• The Delphi Method is useful in dealing with problems such as resource allocation,
forecasting, and public policy development where the conclusion reached depends on
a number of subjective assessments. Since multiple rounds of questions are asked
and the panel is told what the group thinks as a whole, the Delphi method seeks to
iteratively reach the best solution through consensus.

• Software and templates: various online guides and research papers about the Delphi
Method protocol, paid software such as eDelphi and Mesydel.
5. Delphi Method
 6. The Six Thinking Hats Technique
• The Six Thinking Hats Technique is a technique for group discussion and individual
thinking involving six colored hats (can be real or imaginary). Each hat is represents a
different thinking style and direction of thinking.

• Useful summary of the technique: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHiwpz7r4wY

• Six distinct directions are identified and assigned a color. The six directions are:
• [Managing] Blue Hat – What is the subject? What are we thinking about? What is the goal? Can
look at the big picture.
• [Information] White Hat – Considering purely what information is available, what are the facts?
• [Emotions] Red Hat – Intuitive or instinctive gut reactions or statements of emotional feeling (but
not any justification).
• [Criticisms] Black Hat – Logic applied to identifying reasons to be cautious and conservative.
Practical, realistic.
• [Optimistic] Yellow Hat – Logic applied to identifying benefits, seeking harmony. Sees the brighter,
sunny side of situations.
• [Creativity] Green Hat – Statements of provocation and investigation, seeing where a thought goes.
Thinks creatively, outside the box.

• A single hat may be assigned to the entire group at a time, or a different hat may be
assigned to each person. May also rotate the hats to encourage more ideas.
6. The Six Thinking Hats Technique
 6. The Six Thinking Hats Technique
• Hats may be used in a specific sequence (e.g. an initial idea generation process
may involve the sequence Blue, White, Green, Blue). It is not necessary to use all
the hats in every sequence.

• Sequences always begin and end with a blue hat: the group agrees together how
they will think about the problem using the blue hat, then they do the thinking,
then they evaluate the outcomes of that thinking and what they should do next
again using the blue hat.

• Hats and sequences may be used in groups or by individuals working alone.

• The power in this technique lies with getting all ideas and perspectives out on
the table with everyone thinking and collaborating in a parallel and productive
manner.

• Software and templates: process detailed in Edward de Bono’s 1985 book on Six
Thinking Hats. Can be conducted in face-to-face or virtual meetings, no specific
software required. Various improvements and variations have been suggested
since then in articles and research papers.
 6. The Six Thinking Hats Technique
• Parallel thinking is defined as a thinking process where the discussion is split in
specific directions simultaneously. When done in a group it effectively avoids the
consequences of the adversarial approach (as used in courts).

• In adversarial debate, the objective is to prove or disprove statements put

forward by the parties (normally two). This is also known as the dialectic
approach.

• In parallel thinking, practitioners put forward as many statements as possible in

several (preferably more than two) parallel tracks, with each hat representing
one track. This leads to exploration of a subject where all participants can
contribute from a diverse range of perspectives in parallel, with knowledge,
facts, feelings, etc. being considered.

• Crucial to the method is that the process is done in a disciplined manner, and
that all participants agree to play along and contribute in parallel. Thus each
participant must be willing to follow the discussion according to the presently
selected hat.
 6. The Six Thinking Hats Technique
Some suggested sequences:

• Initial idea generation – Blue, White, Green, Blue

• Choosing between alternatives – Blue, White, Green, Yellow, Black, Red, Blue

• Identifying solutions – Blue, White, Black, Green, Blue

• Quick feedback – Blue, Black, Green, Blue

• Strategic planning – Blue, Yellow, Black, White, Blue, Green, Blue

• Process improvement – Blue, White, Yellow, Black, Green, Red, Blue

• Solving problems – Blue, White, Green, Red, Yellow, Black, Green, Blue

• Performance review – Blue, Red, White, Yellow, Black, Green, Blue

 6. The Six Thinking Hats Technique

• The Royal Hat reflects the perspective of the owner who is both committed and
invested in achieving the project’s outputs and outcomes.

• When wearing this hat, group members think about the problem or opportunity from
the project owner’s viewpoint, i.e. keeping in mind the owner’s requirements.
 Activity
• As a group, evaluate the overall performance so far of the current government
using the Six Thinking Hats technique.

• Recommended sequence: Blue, Red, White, Yellow, Black, Green, Blue

 7. PESTLE Analysis
• PESTLE analysis is a useful technique for companies to understand the environment
they are operating in. It is often used when making major tactical and strategic
decisions. It is also often used by entrepreneurs and investors to judge a particular
investment opportunity.

• PESTLE is a acronym where each letter stands for a particular type of factor:
• Political – How and to what degree a government intervenes in the economy. This can include
government policy, political stability or instability in overseas markets, foreign trade policy, tax
policy, labor law, environmental law, trade restrictions and so on.
• Economic – Affects how an organization does business and also how profitable they are. Factors
include economic growth, interest rates, exchange rates, inflation, disposable income of consumers
and businesses and so on.
• Social – The areas that involve the shared belief and attitudes of the population. These factors
include population growth, age distribution, health consciousness, career attitudes and so on.
• Technological – Technological factors affect marketing and the management thereof in three
distinct ways: (i) new ways of producing goods and services, (ii) new ways of distributing goods and
services, and (ii) new ways of communicating with target markets
• Legal – Companies must understand the legal environment in order to function successfully. Factors
include health and safety, equal opportunities, advertising standards, consumer rights and laws,
product labelling and product safety.
• Environmental – These factors have become increasingly important due to the increasing scarcity
of raw materials, pollution targets, doing business as an ethical and sustainable company, carbon
footprint targets set by governments.

• Software and templates: a simple template with ideas and problems categorized
under six headings – one for each type of factor discussed above.
 7. PESTLE Analysis

• PESTLE analysis gives a ‘bird’s eye view’ of the whole environment from many different
angles that one wants to examine and keep a track of while developing a certain
idea/plan/solution.
Note: zoom in to improve readability
 Activity
1. Assume that you are all partners in a joint business venture. As a group, choose
a business idea that you want to pursue.

2. Conduct a PESTLE analysis to evaluate the feasibility of your business idea.

 8. SWOT Analysis & TOWS Matrix
Mini-assignment (to be completed on an individual basis):

1. Read the SWOT Analysis & TOWS Matrix slides provided separately

2. Conduct a SWOT Analysis for your organization or any other organization of

your choosing

3. Develop a TOWS Matrix based on the results of the SWOT analysis

4. Submit your brief report (<5 pages) on an individual basis in softcopy form by
e-mail
 9. Stakeholder Impact Analysis
• Stakeholder Impact Analysis is the first step in Stakeholder Management, an
important process that successful people and organizations use to understand the
needs of others and plan how to win their support.

• Useful article and interactive power-interest grid tool:

https://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newPPM_07.htm

• Stakeholder Impact Analysis involves:

1. Identifying the stakeholders – All parties who are affected by an organization’s work, who
have influence or power over it, or have an interest in its success.
2. Prioritizing the stakeholders – Classify stakeholders according to their power over the
organization’s work and their interest in it using the Power-Interest Grid.
3. Understand the key stakeholders – Gather information about the stakeholders with the
highest priority in order to understand their needs and interests better.

• Stakeholder analysis helps an organization or a project to prioritize their stakeholder,

which helps them decide how much resources to allocate towards managing their
needs and interests.

• Software and templates: the power-interest grid for stakeholder prioritization.

9. Stakeholder Impact Analysis
9. Stakeholder Impact Analysis
 Activity
1. On an individual basis or group basis, rank the stakeholders of your
organization or project on a power-interest grid.

2. Identify the key stakeholders and prepare a plan for how you will gain a better
understanding of their needs and interests.
 10. Pareto Analysis with Pareto Charts
• Pareto Analysis is a technique in decision-making used for the selection of a limited
number of tasks that produce the most significant overall effect.

• It is based on the Pareto Principle (also known as the 80/20 rule). Italian economist
Vilfredo Pareto observed that 80% of income in Italy went to 20% of the population.
Pareto later carried out surveys in some other countries and found to his surprise that
a similar distribution applied.

• The 80/20 rule can be observed in various situations (approximately speaking):

• 80% of your time is spent with 20% of your friends
• 80% of your success comes from 20% of your efforts
• 80% of customer complaints arise from 20% of customers
• 80% of innovations comes from 20% of the staff
• 80% of delays in a project’s schedule arise from 20% of the possible causes of the delays
• 20% of your products and services account for 80% of your profit
• 20% of your sales force produces 80% of your company revenues

• When applying the Pareto principle, the idea that by doing 20% of the work you can
generate 80% of the benefit of doing the entire job. For example, in quality
improvement, the majority of problems (80%) tend to be produced by a few key
causes (20%).
10. Pareto Analysis with Pareto Charts
 10. Pareto Analysis with Pareto Charts
• Pareto Analysis is useful where many possible courses of action are competing
for attention and resources. In essence, the problem-solver estimates the benefit
delivered by each action, then selects a number of the most effective actions
that deliver a total benefit reasonably close to the maximal possible one.

• The Pareto Analysis involves:

1. Identify and List Problems – Firstly, write a list of all of the problems that you need to
resolve. Where possible, talk to clients and team members to get their input, and draw on
surveys, helpdesk logs and suchlike, where these are available.
2. Identify the Root Cause of Each Problem – For each problem, identify its fundamental
cause. The Ishikawa/Fishbone diagram may be used for this purpose.
3. Score Problems (not causes) – A higher score indicates a higher level of priority or
importance.
4. Group Problems Together By Root Cause
5. Add up the Scores for Each Group
6. Take Action on Highest Priority Items

• Software and templates: Results of Pareto Analysis are presented using Pareto
Charts (see example). Excel templates also available online.
10. Pareto Analysis with Pareto Charts

E.g. Pareto Analysis of issues in an electronics repair service

10. Pareto Analysis with Pareto Charts
10. Pareto Analysis with Pareto Charts

Pareto Chart of issues against the percentage of total score

 10. Pareto Analysis with Pareto Charts
• Another method of using Pareto charts is to calculate the frequency of some
particular problem or event, such as the occurrence of defects in a production
line or the occurrence of errors in a web-based service.

E.g. Pareto Analysis of the frequency of defects/errors in a website

 10. Pareto Analysis with Pareto Charts
Useful Resources:

• Pareto Chart (manufacturing example):

https://www.moresteam.com/toolbox/pareto-chart-manufacturing.cfm

• Developing a Pareto Chart in Excel: https://www.excel-

easy.com/examples/pareto-chart.html
 11. Cause and Effect Analysis with
Ishikawa/Fishbone Diagrams
• Cause and Effect Analysis was devised by professor Kaoru Ishikawa, a pioneer of
quality management, in the 1960s. The technique was then published in his 1990
book Introduction to Quality Control.

• Along with Pareto Charts, Cause and Effect Diagrams are among the seven basic
quality tools.

• The Cause and Effect Analysis involves:

1. Identify the Problem – First, write down the exact problem you face. Where appropriate,
identify who is involved, what the problem is, and when and where it occurs.
2. Identify the Major Factors Involved – These may be systems, equipment, materials,
external forces, people involved with the problem, and so on.

Possible categories of factors

• 5 Ms – Machine, Method, Material, Man, Measurement
• 8 Ms – adds Mother Nature (environment), Management, and Maintenance
• 4 Ps in marketing – Product (or service), Price, Promotion, Place
• 4 Ss in service industries – Surroundings, Suppliers, Systems, Skills
 11. Cause and Effect Analysis with
Ishikawa/Fishbone Diagrams
• The Cause and Effect Analysis involves:
3. Identify Possible Causes – For each of the factors considered in step 2, brainstorm possible
causes of the problem that may be related to the factor. You can use the 5 Whys technique
to explore the possible causes.
4. Analyze Your Diagram – By this stage you should have a diagram showing all of the
possible causes of the problem that you can think of. Depending on the complexity and
importance of the problem, you can now investigate the most likely causes further. This
may involve setting up investigations, carrying out surveys, and so on. These will be
designed to test which of these possible causes is actually contributing to the problem.

• Common uses of the Ishikawa diagram are product design and quality defect
prevention in manufacturing.

• However, the diagrams are useful in any situation where the root cause(s) of a
problem need to be identified.

• Software and templates: Cause and Effect Analysis is often conducted using
Ishikawa/Fishbone Diagrams (because a completed diagram can look like the
skeleton of a fish). Excel templates also available online.
11. Cause and Effect Analysis with
Ishikawa/Fishbone Diagrams
11. Cause and Effect Analysis with
Ishikawa/Fishbone Diagrams
11. Cause and Effect Analysis with
Ishikawa/Fishbone Diagrams
 Activity
• On an individual basis or group basis, conduct a Pareto Analysis of the problems
faced by your organization.

• For the third step of the Pareto Analysis (identifying possible causes), use the
Ishikawa Diagram.
 12. The Futures Wheel
• The Futures Wheel is a method for graphical visualization of direct and indirect future
consequences of a particular change or development. It is a way of organizing thinking and
questioning about the future – a kind of structured brainstorming (Jerome C. Glenn, 1994).

• Developing the Futures Wheel involves:

1. Identify the Change – Write the change that you need to consider in the center of a piece of paper, or
on a flipchart. This could be an event, trend, problem, or possible solution.
2. Identify Direct, First-Order Consequences – Brainstorm possible direct consequences of that change.
Write each consequence in a circle, and connect it from the central idea with an arrow. These are ‘first-
order’ consequences.
3. Identify Indirect, Second-Order Consequences – Repeat for third- and fourth-order and so on as
needed.
4. Analyze Implications – Once you've completed all of the levels of the Futures Wheel, list all the possible
direct and indirect consequences resulting from the change.
5. Identify Actions – Where consequences are negative, think about how you’ll mitigate them. Where
consequences are positive, think about what you'll do to take full advantage of them.

• Futures wheels can be used to (i) think through possible impacts of current trends or potential
future events, (ii) organize thoughts about future events or trends, (iii) identify the potential
consequences of a strategy, and (iv) show complex interrelationships between actions and
consequences.

• Software and templates: can be developed on paper or any diagramming software.

12. The Futures Wheel
12. The Futures Wheel
 Activity
• On an individual basis or group basis, identify a major recent decision that your
organization is planning to undertake or is currently undertaking.

• Analyze the consequences of this decision using the Futures Wheel.

 13. Force Field Analysis
• Force Field Analysis was created by Kurt Lewin in the 1940s. The idea behind this analysis
is that situations are maintained by an equilibrium between forces that drive change and
others that resist change. For change to happen, the driving forces must be strengthened
or the resisting forces weakened.

• Force Field Analysis involves:

1. Describe Your Plan or Proposal for Change – Define your goal or vision for change, and write it
down in a box in the middle of the page.
2. Identify Forces For Change – Think about the kinds of forces that are driving change. These can
be internal and external.
3. Identify Forces Against Change – Brainstorm the forces that resist or are unfavorable to change.
These can also be internal or external
4. Assign Scores – Score each force, from, say, one (weak) to five (strong), according to the degree
of influence each one has on the plan, and then add up the scores for each side (for and against).
5. Analyze and Apply – Decide whether to proceed with the change and/or influence the factors for
and against the change.

• The tool is useful for making decisions by analyzing the forces for and against a change. The
analysis can be used to (i) decide whether or not to move forward with the decision or
change, and (ii) think about which supportive forces you can strengthen and which
opposing or resisting forces you can weaken, and how to make the change more successful.

• Software and templates: the Force Field Analysis template (see diagram).
13. Force Field Analysis
13. Force Field Analysis
 Activity
• On an individual basis or group basis, identify a major recent decision that your
organization is planning to undertake or is currently undertaking.

• Examine the forces supporting this decision as well as the forces opposing this
decision using Force Field Analysis.