Time Demand1 Demand2 Demand3 Demand4 Forecast2 Error2 Forecast3 Error3

1 220 230 233 230 230 0 229.06 3.94

2 220 240 235 240 240 0 239.25 -4.25
3 220 250 245 250 250 0 249.43 -4.43
4 220 260 267 360 260 0 259.62 7.38
5 220 270 273 270 270 0 269.81 3.19
6 220 280 278 280 280 0 279.99 -1.99
7 220 290 285 290 290 0 290.18 -5.18
8 220 300 303 400 300 0 300.36 2.64
9 220 310 307 310 310 0 310.55 -3.55
10 220 320 321 320 320 0 320.73 0.27
11 220 330 326 330 330 0 330.92 -4.92
12 220 340 348 440 340 0 341.10 6.90

Level2 220 Level3 218.88

Trend2 10 Trend3 10.19
Forecast4 Error4
237.69 -7.69
250.84 -10.84
263.99 -13.99
277.13 82.87
290.28 -20.28
303.43 -23.43
316.57 -26.57
329.72 70.28
342.87 -32.87
356.01 -36.01
369.16 -39.16
382.31 57.69

Level4 224.55
Trend4 13.15
 Trend Seasonal seasonal
Year Quarter Time Demand Level Error factor index Forecast Error Square Error
1 1 1 230 237.69 -7.69 0.97 0.93 222.00 8.00 64.03
2 2 240 250.84 -10.84 0.96 0.93 232.31 7.69 59.10
3 3 250 263.99 -13.99 0.95 0.92 242.60 7.40 54.72
4 4 360 277.13 82.87 1.30 1.22 338.39 21.61 467.17
2 1 5 270 290.28 -20.28 0.93 0.93 271.11 -1.11 1.24
2 6 280 303.43 -23.43 0.92 0.93 281.02 -1.02 1.03
3 7 290 316.57 -26.57 0.92 0.92 290.93 -0.93 0.87
4 8 400 329.72 70.28 1.21 1.22 402.60 -2.60 6.74
3 1 9 310 342.87 -32.87 0.90 0.93 320.23 -10.23 104.62
2 10 320 356.01 -36.01 0.90 0.93 329.72 -9.72 94.46
3 11 330 369.16 -39.16 0.89 0.92 339.26 -9.26 85.72
4 12 440 382.31 57.69 1.15 1.22 466.81 -26.81 718.60

MSE 138.19
Level 224.55 500
Trend 13.15 multiplication 450
400
+ Addition 350
Formula 300
Addition Model Y= L+T+S Y Demand 250
200
Multiplication Model Y=L*T*S L Level 150
Mix Model Y=(L+T)*S T Trend 100
S Seaasonality 50
0
E Error 0 2 4
Dema nd

Use the approch in which

error is less

Seasnal Factor Demand/forecasted value

*Seasonal factor= (L+T)*S/(L+T)=S
Seasonal Inex Average of the same quarters
Mean Absolute deviation
Mean Square Error
 Chart Title
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Dema nd Trend Forecast
Level

*demand=(L+T)*S
*Forecasted value=(L+T)