Fria Lelaine P.

Teves March 9,2024

BSIE 3rd Year IE 3215

HOMEWORK 3

1. Bob and Bill are two weather forecasters for Accurate Weather. Bob is a veteran
forecaster, while Bill is fresh out of school. The following are the records (in number of
predictions) on both forecasters’ ability to predict whether it will rain in the next 24 h.

a. Which forecaster would you hire? Why?

• Bob’s Probability:
Probability of Hits = 268/(268+320) = 0.4558
Z-value(hits) = NORMSINV(0.4558) = 0.1110

Probability of False Alarms = 56/(56+5318) = 0.0104

Z-value(false alarm) = NORMSINV(0.0104) = 2.3116

d’ = Z(false alarm) – Z(hits)

d’ = 2.3116 – (0.1110) = 2.2006

• Bill’s Probability:
Probability of Hits = 100/(100+21) = 0.8264
Z-value(hits) = NORMSINV(0.8264) = -0.9400

Probability of False Alarms = 138/(138+349) = 0.2834

Z-value(false alarm) = NORMSINV(0.2834) = -0.5728

d’ = Z(false alarm) – Z(hits)

d’ = 0.5728 – (-0.9400) = 1.5128

Upon comparing the d’ of Bob and Bill, it's clear that there's a significant gap in their
predictive accuracies. Since 2.2006 is greater than 1.5128, then we should hire Bob. Bob
exhibits a remarkably higher likelihood of correctly forecasting rain, showcasing his superior
skill in predicting weather outcomes. This clear advantage in forecasting accuracy strongly
suggests that Bob is the more suitable candidate for the forecasting position.
 b. Who is a more conservative forecaster? Why?
The analysis of Bob's and Bill's forecasting skills indicates that Bob is a more
conservative forecaster in his predictions. This is evident from his lower rates of both
successful predictions (hits) and incorrect warnings (false alarms) compared to Bill. A
conservative forecaster, characterized by such lower probabilities of hits and false alarms,
prioritizes minimizing errors. Hence, Bob's approach aligns with the conservative forecasting
model, distinguishing him from Bill's prediction strategy.

c. How would a conservative versus a risky forecaster be beneficial for different

geographic regions?

The effectiveness of a conservative versus a risky forecaster can vary greatly

depending on the geographic region and the specific needs of that area. For instance, in
regions prone to frequent and sudden rainfall, such as tropical or monsoon climates, a
conservative forecaster like Bob, who tends to predict rain more accurately, would be highly
beneficial. His cautious approach ensures that residents and local authorities are better
prepared for potential downpours, minimizing the risk of flood damage and disruption. On
the other hand, in drought-prone areas where rain is less common, a forecaster with a riskier
approach like Bill, who may predict non-rainy conditions more accurately, could be more
advantageous. This forecasting style might align better with the predominant weather
patterns of such regions, helping in water resource management by reducing unnecessary
preparations for rain that is unlikely to occur.

2. The Dorben Electronics Co., manufacturer of resistors, screens potential quality control
inspectors before they are hired. Dorben has developed the following preemployment
test. Each potential employee is presented with the same set of 1,000 resistors of which
500 are defective. The results for two applicants are as follows: (1) of the 500 good
resistors, applicant 1 labeled 100 as defective, and of the 500 bad resistors, applicant 1
labeled 200 as defective; (2) of the 500 good resistors, applicant 2 labeled 50 as
defective, and of the 500 bad resistors, applicant 2 labeled 300 as defective.

a. Treat picking a defective resistor as defective as a hit. Fill in the following table.

Before populating the table, it's essential to initially create the table which has designated
spaces for Applicants 1 and 2 along with categories for their outcomes: Good and
Defective.

Therefore, the subsequent table will be completed by incorporating the data derived
from the previously created table:
b. Given that Dorben places a very large emphasis on quality control (i.e., they don’t
wish to sell a defective product at any cost), which applicant would better fulfill its
goal? Why?
Applicant 2 emerges as the better choice achieving the set objective, primarily due to
their higher success rate in making accurate predictions (hit rate) coupled with a lower
incidence of failures to predict correctly (miss rate). This combination of a high hit rate
and a low miss rate signifies that Applicant 2 possesses a more reliable and precise
forecasting ability, making them the preferable choice for tasks requiring accuracy and
dependability in prediction outcomes.

c. Given that Dorben wishes to hire the most efficient inspector (i.e., most correct),
which applicant would the company hire?

• Applicant 1:
Probability of Hits = 200/500 = 0.40
Z-value(hits) = NORMSINV(0.40) = 0.2533

Probability of False Alarms = 100/500 = 0.20

Z-value(false alarms) = NORMSINV(0.20) = 0.8416

d’ = Z(false alarms) – Z(hits)

d’ = 0.8416 – 0.2533 = 0.5883

• Applicant 2:
Probability of Hits = 300/500 = 0.60
Z-value(hits) = NORMSINV(0.60) = -0.2533

Probability of False Alarms = 50/500 = 0.10

Z-value(false alarms) = NORMSINV(0.10) = 1.2816

d’ = Z(false alarms) – Z(hits)

d’ = 1.2816 – (-0.2533) = 1.5349

Comparing both the d’ values of Applicant 1 and Applicant 2, we can observe that Applicant
2 has a higher d’ value of 1.5349, than Applicant 2 with a d’ value of 0.5883; therefore, we
should hire Applicant 2.
3. The following response-time data (in msec) were obtained on Farmer Brown and his son
Big John while operating a tractor using the right foot to control the clutch, brake, and
accelerator. The foot is normally kept on the rest position. The location and sizes of the
pedals are shown below as well as some sample response times (in msec) for activating
a given control from the rest position.

a. What is the index of difficulty value for each pedal?

• Accelerator:
ID = log2 (2D/W)
ID = log2 ((2x2)/2) = 1

• Brake:
ID = log2 (2D/W)
ID = log2 ((2x5)/2) = 2.32

• Clutch:
ID = log2 (2D/W)
ID = log2 ((2x8)/2) = 3

b. Plot the response times. What law can be used to explain the relationship between
response times and the difficulty in activating a given control?

In understanding the correlation between response time and the complexity of a task
(index of difficulty), Fitts' Law regarding movement time is particularly relevant. This
principle provides a quantitative measure to predict how the difficulty of a task influences
the time required to complete it. When applied in context to the question, the following
formula will be used: MT = a + b(ID)
By utilizing Excel functions to determine the slope and intercept, the subsequent
calculations yielded the following values:

MT(Farmer Brown) = 194.22 + 104.29(ID)

MT(Big John) = 167.20 + 106.99(ID)

PLOT FOR FARMER BROWN (R^2 = 99.9%)

FARMER BROWN
600
510
500 432
Response-Time (msec)

400
300
300

200

100

0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Index of Difficulty

PLOT FOR BIG JOHN (R^2 = 99%)

BIG JOHN
600
480
500
428
Response-Time (msec)

400

270
300

200

100

0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Index of Difficulty
c. What is the simple reaction time for Farmer Brown?
The simple reaction time is the intercept with ID equal to zero. For Farmer Brown it is
194.22 milliseconds.

d. What is the bandwidth for Big John?

The bandwidth for Big John is simply the inverse of its slope. It is calculated by:

1/b = 1000/107 = 9.35 bits/sec

e. Which farmer is the better tractor operator? Why?

When evaluating the capability for quick responses, Big John stands out as the more
suitable candidate for tractor operation due to his shorter simple reaction time. This
implies that for tasks requiring immediate action with minimal information processing,
Big John would likely perform more efficiently. However, in scenarios where the task
complexity increases, involving the processing of more substantial informational
content, Farmer Brown would be the preferable choice. This is because Farmer Brown
exhibits a slightly greater capacity for information processing, with a bandwidth of 9.59
bits/sec, compared to Big John's 9.35 bits/sec. This higher bandwidth indicates Farmer
Brown's superior ability to handle and respond to more complex information streams,
making him better suited for operations demanding higher cognitive engagement.