Industrial Statistics 1

Week 1
Undergraduate Program – Department of Industrial Engineering
Faculty of Industrial Technology
 Course Instructors

• Diesta Iva Maftuhah

• Erwin Widodo
• Putu Dana Karningsih
• Effi Latiffianti, ST, MSc
– latiffianti@gmail.com
– 082143716161
 Module Outline

Week Module content

1 Introduction to Engineering Statistics

2 Concept of Descriptive Statistics

3 Basic Concepts of Probabilities

4 Conditional Probabilities and Bayes’s Rule

5 Quiz 1

• Random, discrete and continuous variable & Its properties

6
• Discrete Probability Distribution 1

7 Discrete Probability Distribution 2

8 Mid-Exam (EBTS)
 Module Outline (2)

Week Module content

9 Continuous Probability Distribution 1

10 Continuous Probability Distribution 2

11 Concept of Inferential Statistics

12 Quiz 2

13 Basic concepts of Estimation

14 Estimation for 2 Population Parameters

15 Presentation of Final Project

16 Final Exam (EBAS)

 Assessment
Type Description
Quizes (15%) • Individual writing test
• Narrow scope of topic, generally one that has been discussed recently in
class
Mid term examination • Individual writing test
(30%) • Will be held at week 8/9
• Open note (2 sided A5 paper, in hand writing, not printed or
photocopied)
Assignment (25%) • Individual or in group
• Given in several parts; it could be individual or integrated topics
• Originality is highly appreciated
• It doesn’t have to be perfect, your efforts tell everything

Final examination (30%) • Individual writing/oral test

• Including wide scope of topics have been discussed in class
• Will be held at the end of semester

In Class Participation • It is remarked for additional grade, not included in the proportion
• Directly added to a specific intended grade
• For those who fail in any other assessments mentioned above, it could be
a good solution
 Rules

• Anything included in the Academic Rules/Procedures/Code of

Conduct, works in this class too. So read them carefully.
• All assignments should be submitted before the class starts.
• No remedial in any kind of assessment. Be well prepared.
 References

• Weiers, R.M., 2005. Introduction to Business Statistics.

Thomson Learning Inc.: USA.

• Walpole and Myers, 1985. Probability and Statistics for

Engineers and Scientists. Collier Macmillan.: Canada
Introduction to Statistics
 Statistic and Statistics

• Statistic
– a fact or piece of data from a study of a large quantity of numerical
data
– Example: the statistics indicated that the crime rate has increased.

• Statistics
– the practice or science of collecting and analyzing numerical data in
large quantities, esp. for the purpose of inferring proportions in a
whole from those in a representative sample.
– a branch of mathematics used to summarize, analyze, and interpret
what we observe, to make sense or meaning of our observations.

Source: Dictionary Application (Apple Inc.)

 Why should you study statistics?

• A family counselor may use statistics to describe patient

behavior and the effectiveness of a treatment program

• A social psychologist may use statistics to summarize peer

pressure among teenagers and interpret the causes

• A college professor may give students a survey to summarize

and interpret how much they like (or dislike) the course

• In each case, the counselor, psychologist, and professor make

use of statistics to do their job.

How about you?

 The Importance of Statistics

• The reason it is important to study statistics can be described

by the words of Mark Twain: “There are lies, damned lies and
statistics.”
• He meant that statistics can be deceiving, and so can
interpreting them.
• Statistics are all around you, from your college grade point
average (GPA) to a Newsweek poll predicting which political
candidate is likely to win an election. In each case, statistics
are used to inform you.
• Statistics are part of your everyday life, and they are subject
to interpretation. The interpreter, of course, is YOU.
 Data vs. Information

Data Information
• Data is raw, unorganized facts that need to be
• When data is processed, organized, structured
processed. Data can be something simple and
or presented in a given context so as to make it
seemingly random and useless until it is
useful, it is called information.
organized
• The class’s average score is the information that
• Example: Each student’s test score is one piece
can be concluded from the given data
of data
The use of statistics in the academic information system
 Other Statistic Examples
Toyota Global Production by Region

Toyota Global Sales by Region

Indonesia Car Sales
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 The role of agriculture in employment

Main Industry 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

1. Agriculture, Forestry, Hunting and Fishery 43.77% 44.34% 46.38% 43.33% 44.04%
2. Mining and Quarrying 0.69% 0.79% 1.10% 0.85%
3. Manufacturing Industry 13.31% 13.21% 12.39% 11.81% 12.27%
4. Electricity, Gas, and Water 0.19% 0.16% 0.24% 0.20%
5. Construction 4.23% 4.66% 4.37% 4.84% 4.65%
6. Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade, Restaurants and Hotels 19.24% 19.42% 18.59% 20.40% 19.90%
7. Transportation, Storage, and Communications 4.90% 5.10% 5.32% 5.85% 5.85%
8. Financing, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services 1.24% 1.08% 1.41% 1.20% 1.10%
9. Community, Social, and Personal Services 12.12% 11.30% 10.60% 11.22% 11.14%
10. Others 1.20%
Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

Try to elaborate this data with one in the previous page. What do you see?
Statistics Classification
 Descriptive and Inferential

• Descriptive statistics are procedures used to summarize,

organize, and make sense of a set of scores or observations.
– Descriptive statistics are typically presented graphically, in tabular
form (in tables), or as summary statistics (single values).

• Inferential statistics are procedures used that allow

researchers to infer or generalize observations made with
samples to the larger population from which they were
selected.
Data Classification
 Types of Data

• Based on the source

– Primary
– Secondary

• Based on the characteristics

– Quantitative
• States the quantity of certain object, can be expressed in a certain numerical scale.
• Example : waiting time (in minute) before a service begins
– Qualitative (categorical)
• Does not express any quantitative interpretation. It can only be classified.
• Example : field/area of expertise mostly occupied by the graduates of IE-ITS

• Based on the method to obtain the data

– Discrete: a data of well defined value, obtained by counting. For example a
number of customers in an hour.
– Data kontinu: one can take a value between any other two values, obtained by
measuring the objects. Example: indoor temperature, body weight, height.
 Scales of Measurements

• Scales of measurement are rules that describe the properties

of numbers.
• Scales of measurement are characterized by three properties:
order, differences, and ratios.
• Each property can be described by answering the following
questions:
– Order: Does a larger number indicate a greater value than a smaller
number?
– Differences: Does subtracting two numbers represent some
meaningful value?
– Ratio: Does dividing (or taking the ratio of) two numbers represent
some meaningful value?
Scales of Measurement and Data Properties
 Scales of measurements

Nominal Scale (Categorical Scale)

• Nominal scales are measurements where a number is assigned to represent something
or someone.
• Label observations so they fall into different categories, but no quantitative distictions
• E.g. person’s race, gender, nationality, sexual orientation, hair and eye color, season of
birth, marital status, or other demographic or personal information.
• A researcher may code men as 1 and women as 2. They may code the seasons as 1, 2, 3,
and 4 for spring, summer, fall, and winter, respectively. These numbers are used to
identify gender or the seasons and nothing more.

Ordinal Scale
• Set of categories that are organized into an ordered sequence
• Rank in terms of size and magnitude
• E.g: 1st 17th; low medium high
 Scales of measurements

Interval Scale
• Interval scales are measurements where the values have no true zero and the distance
between each value is equidistant.
• A true zero describes values where the value 0 truly indicates nothing.
• It can compare magnitude differences, but not ratios of magnitude
• Example: temperature

Ratio Scale
• Ratio scales are measurements where a set of values has a true zero and are
equidistant.
• Allows for ratio of magnitudes, so you can compare ratios of magnitude
• Common examples of ratio scales include counts and measures of length, height,
weight, time, and age.
• Hence, it is meaningful to state that 60 pounds is twice as heavy as 30 pounds.
Data Sources

Data collection

Primary Secondary

Observation Printed

Survey Electronic

Interview

Experimentation
 Statistics Methods

Statistic Methods

Descriptive Inferential

Data collection Estimation

Data presentation Hypothesis testing

Data classification
Main purpose is to describe and present data
in a more useful and meaningful way.
Estimating/claiming population
characteristics based on the sample
parameter.
 First Assignment

Collect at least 3 examples of statistics usage in a media (printed

or electronic). Mention the source and give a brief explanation
about the examples.
 Terms Used in Inferential Statistics

 A population (or universe) is the whole collection of

things under consideration.

 A sample is a portion of the population selected for

analysis.

 A parameter is a summary measure computed to

describe a characteristic of the population.

 A statistic is a summary measure computed to describe

a characteristic of the sample
 Sample? Why?

• Less time consuming than a census

• Less costly to administer than a census
• Less cumbersome and more practical to administer than a
census of the targeted population
 Representative Sample

• A set of sample is a set of selected part of population

to be observed and to infer the population. A good
inference can only be achieved if sample is
representative.
• A representative sample can be obtained through a
good mechanism called sampling technique.
Population Vs. Sample

Population Sample

a b cd b c
ef gh i jk l m n gi n
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 Sampling Techniques

Judgement
Non probability
samples
Convenience

Simple random
Samples

Stratified
Probability samples
Systematic

Cluster
 Sampling Techniques

• Probability sampling
– Bagian dari sampel dipilih berdasarkan probabilitas
tertentu (dihitung sebelumnya).
– Teknik sampling yang memberikan peluang yang sama bagi
setiap anggota populasi untuk dipilih menjadi anggota
sampel.
• Nonprobability sampling
– Teknik sampling yang tidak memberikan peluang yang
sama pada semua anggota populasi untuk dipilih menjadi
anggota sampel.
 Simple Random Samples

• Every individual or item from the population has an

equal chance of being selected
• Selection may be with replacement or without
replacement
• Samples can be obtained from a table of random
numbers or computer random number generators
 Stratified Samples

• Population divided into subgroups (called strata)

according to some common characteristic
• Simple random sample selected from each subgroup
• Samples from subgroups are combined into one

Population
Divided
into 4
strata

Sample
 Stratified Sample (1)

Proportionate stratified random sampling

pengambilan sampel dari populasi yang mempunyai
anggota tidak homogen dan berstrata secara proporsional

sampel
Populasi berstrata

Contoh: suatu organisasi mempunyai pegawai dengan latar belakang

pendidikan yang berbeda.
Lulusan S1: 45 orang S2: 30 orang
STM: 800 orang SMEA: 400 orang
SD : 300 orang,
Jumlah sampel yang harus diambil berdasarkan strata pendidikan
harus diambil secara proporsional.
 Stratified Sample (2)

Disproportionate stratified random sampling

• pengambilan sampel dari populasi berstrata tapi tidak proporsional
• contoh: pegawai di perusahaan tertentu mempunyai latar belakang
pendidikan sbb,
– S3 : 3 orang,
– S2 : 4 orang,
– S1 : 90 orang
– SLTA : 800 orang, dan
– SLTP : 700 orang.
• Untuk pengambilan sampel, 3 orang S3 dan 4 orang S2 diambil
semua sebagai sampel karena jumlahnya terlalu sedikit bila
dibandingkan dengan kelompok yang lain.
 Systematic Samples

 Decide on sample size: n

 Divide frame of N individuals into groups of k individuals:
k=N/n
 Randomly select one individual from the 1st group
 Select every kth individual thereafter

N = 64
n=8 First Group
k=8
 Systematic Sampling

Teknik pengambilan sampel ini berdasarkan urutan

anggota populasi yang telah diberi nomor urut.

Contoh : anggota populasi yang terdiri dari 100 orang.

Pengambilan sampel dapat diambil dengan
memperhatikan no ganjil saja, genap saja, atau kelipatan
bilangan tertentu, misal kelipatan 5, maka sampel yang
diambil adalah no. 5, 10, 15, dsb.
 Cluster Samples

• Population is divided into several “clusters,” each

representative of the population
• A simple random sample of clusters is selected
– All items in the selected clusters can be used, or items can
be chosen from a cluster using another probability
sampling technique

Population
divided into 16
clusters. Randomly selected
clusters for sample
 Cluster Sample

Pengambilan sampel dari populasi/obyek yang sumber datanya sangat

luas, misal : penduduk di suatu negara/propinsi/kabupaten (untuk
menentukan penduduk mana yang akan dijadikan sumber data, maka
pengambilan sampel berdasarkan daerah populasi yang telah ditetapkan).

Contoh : di Indonesia ada 33 propinsi dan sampelnya akan menggunakan

10 propinsi maka pengambilan 10 propinsi ini dilakukan secara random.
Biasanya dilakukan 2 tahap: sampel daerah (10 propinsi dari 32 propinsi)
dan sampel individu (menentukan orang yang akan dijadikan sampel pada
setiap propinsi).

B B
A A
C

E D
D
 Nonprobability sampling (1)

• Sampling sistematis.
• Sampling kuota.
– Pengambilan sampel dari populasi yang mempunyai ciri-ciri
tertentu sampai jumlah (kuota) yang diinginkan.
– Contoh : sekelompok peneliti yang terdiri dari 5 orang melakukan
penelitian terhadap pegawai golongan II. Jumlah sampel
ditentukan 100. sehingga setiap anggota peneliti dapat memilih
sampel secara bebas sesuai dengan karakteristik yang ditentukan
(golongan II) sebanyak 20 orang.
• Sampling aksidental.
– Pengambilan sampel berdasarkan kebetulan, yaitu siapa saja yang
secara kebetulan bertemu dengan peneliti dapat digunakan
sebagai sampel bila dipandang orang tersebut cocok sebagai
sumber data.
 Nonprobability sampling (2)

• Sampling purposive
– Pengambilan sampel dengan pertimbangan tertentu.
– Contoh : penelitian tentang disiplin pegawai, maka sampel yang
dipilih adalah orang yang ahli dalam bidang kepegawaian saja.
• Sampling jenuh
– Pengambilan sampel dengan mengambil semua anggota populasi
sebagai sampel
– bila jumlah populasi relatif sedikit, kurang dari 30, sama dengan
sensus
• Snowball sampling
– pengambilan sampel yang mula-mula jumlahnya sedikit, kemudian
sampel itu diminta memilih teman-temannya untuk dijadikan
sampel, begitu seterusnya sehingga jumlah sampel semakin
banyak.
 Additional references used in this presentation

• Kamus Besar Bahasa Indonesia. kkbi.web.id. Diakses pada tanggal 2 September

2013.
• Pusat Pembinaan Sumber Daya Investasi, Badan Pembinaan Konstruksi,
Kementrian Pekerjaan Umum. 2011.
http://pusbinsdi.net/semen.php?page=produksi. Diakses pada tanggal 2
September 2013.
• Toyota Motor Corporation, 2013. http://www.toyota-
global.com/company/profile/figures/vehicle_production_sales_and_exports_by_r
egion.html. Diakses pada tanggal 2 September 2013.
 Your study guide for next meeting

Find and understand the meaning of the following terms:

1. Population
2. Sample
3. Sampling
4. Mean
5. Median
6. Modus
7. Standard Deviation
8. Variance
9. Outlier
Use your own words. You may add examples to explain them.